The stache

Looks like Lucroy might be breaking out of his season long slumber. He'd been 9 for 28 the last 8 games (.321), and now he's 14 for 33 in the last 9. Keep it up, Jonathan!

You're right, there is no guarantee that the pick would have resulted in a viable player for our franchise. But what is now guaranteed is that we have committed $33 million for three years to a pitcher that will be 35 in October. That pitcher is now 1-6 with a 4.37 ERA, and a 1.324 WHIP a year after he was 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.090 WHIP. So yes, there's a chance that we could have drafted a real nobody. There's also a chance we could have drafted the next Shelby Miller, or Michael Wacha, and retained his service for a comparatively modest amount. Instead, we have wrapped the rope around our neck, and the noose is tightening. Kyle's $11 million represents nearly 1/8, or 12.5% of our entire $88,837,366 salary for 2013. That money could have been better spent elsewhere.

I am not forgetting that at all. I said we have some pieces in place should we choose to rebuild the franchise (Braun, Segura, Gomez and even Aoki). I also think Peralta will be a good pitcher, but he needs to be back at Nashville, because right now, he's frustrated, and developing bad habits. I know what the Marlins and Astros have done represent an extreme, and I am not calling for that. I am not asking for a fire sale of our talent. I am looking to gut and rebuild the framework of the franchise, the mechanism that selects young players, develops them, and sends them along to the parent club. It's possible to completely overhaul the scouting personnel, coaches, general manager and manager without changing a single player on the roster (though that is not advisable). We do need to cut off some of the fat, if possible, to create some money to address areas of concern that do already exist. Because right now, we have too much money chasing bad investments, Lohse being just the latest example. Well, firstly, Ryan Braun is the closest equivalent to a Mike Stanton on this team. A power bat in right field with MVP potential (or realized potential in Braun's case). He's not going to be traded, because at his salary, there's no way we could get equivalent value for him. Plus, he's a fan favorite, and if you're looking to rebuild your system, the last thing you want to do is cut off your revenue stream by alienating the fan base. The farm system and the Major League team are intrinsically linked; it's impossible to care about one, and completely neglect the other. Bottom line, for the Brewers to be successful, they need to change their business model. We are not one of the big boys. We cannot get into bidding wars for our top talent. If the Brewers are going to survive, and thrive, they need to have a constant pipeline of young, talented players. When the time comes where somebody like Prince Fielder hits free agency, we should be prepared for the likelihood that he will not stay in Milwaukee. We should have a capable first baseman ready to replace him. Now, nobody could have predicted the injuries that hit Mat Gamel, but they did a disservice to him before the injury. They brought him up, and sat him on the bench. He got intermittent playing time, but was never truly able to show what he could do. When he did get the starting job at first, he wrecked his knee. And after Gamel, the Brewers had nobody else in place that could replace him. The solution was to move somebody from the outfield to first base (Corey Hart), and pray that he a.) was able to handle the position while maintaining his offensive norm, and b.) could avoid an injury of his own. Actually, it is as bad as it seems. The Milwaukee Brewers franchise has existed for 44 years now (starting as the Seattle Pilots in 1969). The worst month in franchise history came in August of 1969, when the Seattle Pilots were 6-22. This month, the Brewers are 5-22. If we win today against the Phillies, we will have tied for the worst month in team history. Should we lose, we will establish a new mark of ineptitude. Additionally, we have not led a game at any point in the last 59 innings. Lastly, we just got swept in four games by the Minnesota Twins, a team that before they came to Milwaukee, had lost 11 of their last 12 games. The bad teams are getting well against us. It is as bad as I am making it out. Nelson is the only starting pitching prospect I am somewhat optimistic about, and that's a guarded optimism. The fact that there are many starters in our minor league system does not at all increase the likelihood that some of them will "sneak through", as you put it. Our top pitching prospects are, collectively, having an abysmal season. None of the pitching coaches that we currently have in place instill any level of confidence.

Texas had the top ranked system in the Major Leagues last year, per Baseball America (April 2-15, 2012 issue). From 2009-2012, Texas had 366 wins, an average of about 92 wins per year. So, they weren't drafting high in the first round, either. Yet they've flourished. http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/6650/rangersnumber1.png From my personal stash of baseball references. I guess you could call it "the 'stash's stash". Do you remember when the Rangers were just like the Brewers? Year after year, decade after decade, they couldn't even sniff the playoffs, let alone the World Series. The team started in 1961 as the Washington Senators. Then, they moved to Texas before the start of the 1972 season. It took the franchise thirty-six years to make the playoffs for the first time. They finally got there in 1996, and then again in consecutive seasons, 1998 and 1999. It was Doug Melvin's team that finally broke them through. They won the AL West all three seasons with records of 90-72 in 1996, 88-74 in 1998, and 95-67 in 1999. Combined, those three playoff seasons, the Rangers went 273-213 (.562). They were 6th in the Majors in scoring in 1996, putting up 5.69 runs per game (the Mariners put up an absurd 6.17 rpg, besting even Colorado). In 1998, they were second in the Majors scoring 5.8 runs per game, and in 1999 they were again second in the Majors scoring 5.83 runs per game. So, what did this offensive juggernaut do in the playoffs? In the 1996 ALDS, they lost to the New York Yankees 3-1 (a Yankees squad with an identical 92-70 record). In the 1998 ALDS, they were swept by the New York Yankees (3-0), and scored a grand total of one run in the series. Then, in the 1999 ALDS, the Rangers again got swept by the Yankees (3-0). Again, in the three game series, the powerful Rangers lineup scored a lone run. If you add up the 12 runs they scored in the first series and the 2 total in the second and third series, they scored 14 runs in 10 games, less than 2 runs a game. But they had no problem giving up runs. The Yankees scored 39 runs in the 10 games. Then the Rangers got smart. They saw that trying to drive a square peg into a round hole wasn't working. They realized that you can have all the hitting in the world, but a very good pitcher on their game (with a good defense behind them) can completely nullify great hitting. They did exactly what I want the Brewers to do now. The Rangers, from the top all the way down, re-evaluated how they did business. They no longer chased the big name free agents. No more $250 million deals for an Alex Rodriguez, no more bringing in Jose Canseco. The Texas Rangers organizational mantra became "scout, draft, develop, retain, and reward". They put scouts with true baseball acumen wherever baseball talent existed. Their scouts covered the orient, and Latin America, Canada, and every state in the Union. This allowed them to begin growing their own talent again, talent which now included pitching. They brought in complimentary pieces from other teams, or players that for one reason or another had been discarded by other teams. Josh Hamilton had been on the restricted list for three years, and had a half season of Major League experience when he was acquired by the Rangers. In five seasons with the Rangers, Hamilton's 162 game averages were a .305 AVG, 36 HR and 127 RBI. His slash line was .305/.363/.549/.912. Did the Rangers uncover a diamond in the rough? No. Tampa Bay had drafted him #1 overall. They failed with him, as did the Cubs and Reds. And if Hamilton had been in Texas under Melvin's watch, I have no doubt he would have failed there, too. But the Rangers under Jon Daniels have created a different atmosphere. The irony in all this is that it took Doug Melvin's leaving Texas for them to completely revamp how they approached "the game" in the aggregate (not just the one played on a baseball field, but also the part that involves scouting, drafting, coaching/developing, roster construction w/ free agency). Melvin's exit, followed by the gradual ascent of the Rangers' system, are not mere coincidence. The Rangers already had an established connection with the Latin community, so they ramped up their efforts searching for impact players in Latin America. They started drafting some good pitchers: Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter, Drew Pomeranz, Cory Luebke. They aggressively pursued their ace in Yu Darvish. Even after seeing Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Mike Napoli and C.J. Wilson leave (moves that would have crippled a franchise like Milwaukee), they are cruising right along at 33-20, in first place. Their offense hasn't skipped a beat. Why? Because they had the talent in the minor leagues to soften the blow. They had a general manager that was not acquiring stop gaps, but veteran players that would fit well within the framework of the team. Even with all the money they've spent on players like Darvish, and A.J. Pierzynski, the majority of their active roster is home grown: Alexi Ogando, Neftali Feliz, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Mitch Moreland, Derek Holland, Jurickson Profar, Leonys Martin, Justin Grimm, Martin Perez, Tanner Scheppers, Robby Ross, Matt Harrison. These are pieces in a puzzle. They're not all sexy pieces, nor are they all big names. They are all good players. For the Rangers, just like my Green Bay Packers, it's "next man up". When Adrian Beltre leaves, or retires, his eventual successor has already been identified in Mike Olt. He is a third baseman. He has been developed as a third baseman. He's not a guy with a bat and no glove that is going to be stuck at first base because the franchise that drafted him did not know what he was capable of. Olt will hit .270 with 25-30 home runs every year (maybe more), drive in 100 runs in the heart of the Rangers lineup, and he'll lock down third base. He's plus-average defensively, and has a rocket arm. When the Rangers allowed Napoli to leave, they found Pierzynski, an All Star with the White Sox last year, and plugged him in. Then they got Geovany Soto, a proven defensive catcher with some pop in his bat, to back him up. Should A.J. go down (he is 36 after all), they had another outstanding defensive catcher to work with the young Rangers rotation. And, they signed these guys to short term contracts (one year each). They did not overextend themselves financially, allowing them to sign either (or both) catchers for another season until their catcher of the future is ready. Jorge Alfaro is that future. This kid has a plus bat, average to above average power, a good glove, and an Ivan Rodriguez-like arm. The Rangers have a plan. Anybody who follows the game, and has even a passable knowledge of roster construction, can clearly see that there are never any emergencies with this team. There's no signing somebody off the scrap heap, and plugging them in a position they've never played before on opening day. They draft a player, identify where they will play, and have clear organizational depth at every position. And now, the Rangers are doing something really smart that gives them additional depth. They are working to train some of their top prospects at additional positions. Jurickson Profar is the top rated prospect in baseball at shortstop, yet the Rangers have had him working at second base so he is available to play there if need be. They have him doing it even though the need may never arise. They do it, also, to make Profar more attractive to possible suitors. Look at the Ranger minor league system. Profar, Olr, Luis Sardinas (another stud shortstop prospect), Leonys Martin, Martin Perez, Alfaro, Jairo Beras, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Ronald Guzman, Cody Buckel, Joey Gallo, Wilmer Font. The Rangers' cup overflows with talent. They continue to make good draft decisions even though they are annually near the bottom of the first round. They have the talent other teams want, and it puts them in a position of strength when it comes to negotiating. The Rangers are a model the Milwaukee Brewers would be very wise to emulate. They are not the only one, of course. But then again, there is the Doug Melvin factor. Will Mark Attanasio show that same vision, and clean house where it is so desperately needed? Only time will tell. I hope he does, and it happens soon. By his silence, he is sending the wrong signal to the fans. We don't him to paint a rosy picture. We want to hear that he's had enough, and that changes will be made. You can only tread water so long before you either have to swim for land, or allow yourself to drown.

I missed this last night. Bite your tongue, DocLuna7. Let's not put anything on the intrawebs that Dougie might accidentally stumble upon.

You're right that the minor league talent can't really be compared, only because they have some, and we really don't. As for the salaries, I posted both in the original post: The Marlins went for it all by loading up on some veteran players, and it didn't work out. When the owner realized the team chemistry wasn't there, he decided to rebuild the team. You may not like it, but this is twice the Marlins have done it (once with Wayne Huizenga, the second time with Loria), and they've been able to get two World Championships (two more than we've gotten in 43 years). Now, I'm not saying that's the best way to do it. There's a way to rebuild your team while keeping some of your proven fan favorites. There has to be somewhere in between what they've done, and what Milwaukee has done. The Astros and Marlins are extreme examples, but as bad as it might be now, the other teams have a much brighter future than we do. You can say they've had some higher picks. Sure, they have. We've had some higher picks that we completely whiffed on, or went for the "safe" player instead of an impact player. No matter how you slice it, the Brewer franchise is at a crossroads. There are two roads ahead. Stay the course, trying to plug holes by trading the few attractive prospects we have left, and overpaying for short term rental All Stars, or, we can blow up the coaching staff and scouts, get a new general manager and manager, and start again. Keep Ryan Braun. Keep Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura (maybe showing Jean that we are serious will spur him towards signing that contract. If the Brewers continue to tread water, he's not going to want to stay here, I can almost guarantee it). Dump the other guys that have monster contracts if you can. Get rid of Kyle Lohse and his contract, and see if we can get some other team to pick up half of it. Do whatever is necessary to create some room under whatever Mark Attanasio's self-imposed cap is going to be. Get some scouts in place that know pitching talent when they see it, and the coaches needed to nurture their growth. These coaches are out there. What we are doing right now is not working. Period. We might not have to go to an extreme like these other two teams, but we need to follow their example and start over in many ways.

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/3856/metst.png Could we steal away one of the New York Mets pitching coaches, and bring them to Milwaukee please? Maybe they could sneak Noah Syndergaard in with them.

How gorgeous is this woman? http://img001.lazygirls.info/people/heidi_watney/heidi_watney_heidi_watney__fD5XLS3Q.sized.jpg Never has watching highlights of the Brewers losing been so enjoyable. Yikes! http://point-taken.sportsofboston.com/files/2011/11/Heidi-Watney-HOT.jpg Sorry to be the wet blanket, guys. In years past, this kind of thread has triggered filters at members' workplaces that blocked them from being able to view any content on Brewerfan. In the interest of preserving their access to the baseball end of things - even nowadays - I've edited the thread title and locked it. - hawing

Usually when a Major League team is having an historically bad season (by historically bad, I mean on a pace for potentially 100 or more losses), fans of that team will look to the talent in their minor league system as the "light at the end of the tunnel". "It's bad now, but better days are ahead". Bad teams get better draft picks. If you lose 100 games, you're going to get one of the very best amateur baseball players to add to your system. And if all goes well (if that player does not get injured), it's a reasonable assumption to make that said player will be up at the Major League level, playing for your team, in a few years. In 2013, there are three teams having these historically bad seasons. As of the end of today's games, the three teams on a pace to lose 100 or more games are: The Miami Marlins, 13-41, .241 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162 game season, that would be a record of 39-123. 2013 payroll of $35,720,400. The Houston Astros, 17-37, .315 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162 game season, that would be a record of 51-111. 2013 payroll of $21,133,500. The Milwaukee Brewers, 19-33, .365 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162 game season, that would be a record of 59-103. 2013 payroll of $88,837,366. The Miami Marlins, prior to the 2013 season, had an absolute fire sale. They dumped nearly every good player on their team in exchange for young talent. Gone are Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonafacio, and Mark Buehrle (among others). And their only remaining star, Giancarlo Stanton, has been rumored to pretty much every other Major League team. Yet somehow, he remains in Miami. You can say what you want about Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria, but one thing you cannot say is that the organization lacks young talent. The Marlins system is loaded. Top 100 MLB Prospects, currently (rank in parenthesis) (per MLB.com): Christian Yelich (12) Jake Marisnick (65) Justin Nicolino (66) Andrew Heaney (75) Additionally, Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect list (April 2-16, 2013 edition) ranked the following players: Marcel Ozuna (75) Adeiny Hechavaria (97) Jose Fernandez was the #7 prospect on MLB.com's Top 100 to start the year (#5 on Baseball America's Top 100), but he has reached 50 innings pitched, so no longer qualifies as a prospect. In total, that is 7 Marlin prospects ranked in the top 100 since the end of 2012. The Houston Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West, reducing the NL Central to 5 teams, and augmenting the AL West to 5 teams. Much like Marlin owner Jeffrey Loria, Jeffrey Crain, owner of the Astros, had a fire sale prior to the start of the 2013 season, dumping salary left and right. To put things in perspective, Alex Rodriguez's salary of $28 million is roughly $6.86 million more than all the Houston Astros will earn combined. But Crain knows that brighter days area ahead. Fans of the Houston Astros know that there is help on the way. The Astros, like the Marlins, have a tremendous minor league system, bursting with talent. Top 100 MLB Prospects, currently (rank in parenthesis) (per MLB.com): Jonathan Singleton (25) Carlos Correa (28) George Springer (52) Jarred Cosart (82) Delino DeShields (93) Lance McCullers (100) Additionally, the Astros acquired third baseman Matt Dominguez (#75 MLB.com Top 100 List end of 2012) from the Marlins. In total, that's 7 players that have been in the top 100 prospects since the end of 2012. Then you have the Milwaukee Brewers, who have gone from 96-66 in 2011, to 83-79 in 2012, and now 19-33 in 2013. While a few key injuries have slowed the offense (Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart), it has been the starting pitching that has most been responsible for the team's free fall (aided greatly by a slumping offense). Now, the Brewers have talent in their lineup. They had the top scoring offense in the National League in 2012, so one hopes that the team will correct itself somewhat, and at least finish the season with a respectable record. When looking at the minor league talent, there doesn't seem to be any real help on the way. Top 100 MLB Prospects, currently (rank in parenthesis) (per MLB.com): none The Brewers did acquire Jean Segura (#52 MLB.com end of 2012) in the trade for Zack Greinke, and had two Top 100 prospects on the end of 2012 MLB.com list (Wily Peralta #48, and Jed Lawrie #96) and one on the Baseball America Top 100 list (Taylor Jungmann #70). But they do not have a single prospect anywhere in their system currently ranked in the top 100. So, how do the Brewers proceed from here? How do we restock our young talent? Unlike the current situations in Houston and Miami, it does not look like there will be a lot of money available to improve this team going forward. Of the $88,837,366 the Brewers are paying in salaries for the 2013 season, $31,063,922, or 35%, is tied up in three players: Rickie Weeks, Kyle Lohse, and Aramis Ramirez. Add in two more players, Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo, and you have five players earning a combined $48,962,533, or 55% of the entire team's payroll. Braun is in the early stages of the prime years (he turns 30 in November), and has established himself as a perennial MVP candidate. Gallardo has been the team's most consistent starting pitcher since 2010, but has slumped in 2013 to 3-5 record with a 4.79 ERA. He's seen a drop in his strikeout rate (from 9.2 K/9 IP from 2010-2012 to 7.3 K/9 IP), and his WHIP has increased each of the last two years (1.215 in 2011, 1.304 in 2012, 1.484 in 2013). Kyle Lohse is signed for two more seasons (he will be 35 in October), and Aramis Ramirez is signed for one more season, with an option for 2015 (he will be 35 on June 25th). Committed salaries for 2014: Aramis Ramirez $16,000,000 Yovani Gallardo $11,250,000 Kyle Lohse $11,000,000 Rickie Weeks $11,000,000 Ryan Braun $10,000,000 Carlos Gomez $7,000,000 6 players. $66,250,000. This would account for 75% of the 2013 Milwaukee Brewer payroll. How much will Mark Attanasio commit for 2014 (he lowered the team's payroll from $101.2 million, a drop of nearly 12%). Corey Hart, who is being paid $10,000,000 in 2013, is a free agent when the regular season ends. Do we trade him for prospects now? John Axford becomes eligible for arbitration in 2014 (he is being paid $5,000,000 in 2013). What do we do with him? The Brewers, in my opinion, need to make some radical changes, and they need to do it quickly. While they have some very nice pieces to the puzzle in Ryan Braun, Jean Segura, and Carlos Gomez, we need to realize that a year from now, the very real possibility exists that Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart will both be gone. We also haven't got any starting pitchers in the minors I could see in the same position with the parent club in 2014. Jimmy Nelson, who turns 24 in a week, is doing well, but he's still at AA. If they do not move him to AAA Nashville at some point during the season, it is unlikely he would compete for a starting job in 2014, as the Brewers are very slow to move their prospects. Tyler Thornburg has struggled mightily since moving to Nashville, where he is 0-6 with a 6.66 ERA. While he has a near 3:1 K:BB ratio, he is allowing way too many base runners (his WHIP is 1.71). Taylor Jungman has shown improvement since coming off the DL, but he, too, is walking too many batters to show that he is ready for a promotion to Milwaukee (24 walks in 52 2/3 IP, or 4.1 BB/9 IP). Johnny Hellweg's command right now is worse. He's 3-4 with a 3.99 ERA at AAA Nashville, but in 49 2/3 IP, he has struck out 38 while walking 37. His WHIP is 1.45. The aforementioned Bradley is struggling at high A ball Brevard County. He's 3-2 with a 5.11 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, 40 K and 26 walks in 44 IP. Our #6 prospect, Scooter Gennett, is hitting above .300 like he always does, this time at Nashville (.313 in 192 at bats). But he provides little in the power department, has average/slightly above average speed, and is average defensively. His OBP is made up mostly by his batting average (12 walks in 209 plate appearances for a .353 OBP). He can hit, but is that enough to warrant his being a starter? There are just too many question marks, and I don't see management addressing them proactively.

And they have far greater minor league talent, too. Top 100 prospects right now (per MLB.com): Astros: Jonathan Singleton (25) Carlos Correa (28) George Springer (52) Jarred Cosart (82) Delino DeShields (93) Lance McCullers (100) Milwaukee: none So while the Astros are abysmal this year, they are loaded up on young talent (including recent top 100 player Matt Dominguez, #35 2011). Jose Altuve is a kick butt second baseman, J.D. Martinez can rake. The Astros are going to get another high pick this season, too. In a couple of years, they'll be just loaded. And the Brewers will be on a path to nowhere, unfortunately.

Mark Kotsay is batting .286 this year for the Padres, I bet Doug is working the phones, trying to bring back our missing link CF He's already brought back Yuni and K Rod, so why not. Would anybody be surprised if this happened?

Braun's thumb is hurting him, but our manager refuses to rest him. 5-22 in May now. Worst month in franchise history, surpassing the 1969 Seattle Pilots. When will we see anything from Mark A?

Michael Wacha 7 IP, 1 run on 2 hits, no walks, 6 K's. As good as advertised. Wow, the Cardinals just keep coming up with pitching. As an aside, I just watched the ending of "Field of Dreams" night before last. The ending always makes me tear up, because I remember being able to play catch with my dad. Now we're just a couple of old farts, and would probably hurt ourselves throwing the ball back and forth. Come on, Brauny! Hit one out!

Do you guys get a sense that Brian and Billy are muting their mics, and banging their heads on the table after Yuni failed to step on first. They're trying so hard to be positive right now. Ugh, nice stop, Luc. That was going to the backstop. Ugly inning, but John held. Now let's score some runs, and get a win.

If we see Shoeless Joe Jackson walking out of a field of corn, sign him up.

Get out of it, John. Come on. Channel 2011.

Of course bad Axford is rearing his ugly head. I tell you, when the pressure is off, he's good. When there's any pressure whatsoever, like I don't know, needing to hold as our team fights to get back in it, he becomes a mental midget.

When he's on, he's one of those guys that can carry a team offensively. He and Corey Hart seem to get those incredibly hot periods where you just can't get them out. I'd love to see Rickie hit one of those streaks because I don't like seeing him struggle.

Ok, 8-5. Let's keep it going. GoGo time!

Ok, 8-5. Let's keep it going. GoGo time!

Good job, Logan, there's the single. Every hitter in our lineup has a hit now, yay! Good job getting something going, Rickie!!!! I haven't seen him take a ball to the opposite field in a while. Nicely done.

Come on Logan, crush a home run, and go for the cycle!

We were perilously close to getting back in it, so the bullpen had to give up another run.

http://www.tv-intros.com/a/all%20in%20the%20family.jpg "Mister we could use a hitter like Yuni Bomber again..."

http://mindromp.org/forum/images/smilies/thumbs_up_smiley.gif Former Brewer Lorenzo Cain breaks up the perfect game. Moral victory. If Wacha had thrown a no hitter, I might have jumped off the roof.