JosephC
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Everything posted by JosephC
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Have to admit that I've grown more cold on this deal since it went down. Love Yelich and the offensive skills he brings. I don't think it was an overpay by Milwaukee in any way. But I wouldn't have made this deal unless I already had a plan in place to move Braun to another team. Reviewed Braun's defensive plus/minus numbers from his 3B season and do not want to see him anywhere near a MLB infield unless he is holding a bat or running the bases. Braun still has a good enough bat where he needs to be in a lineup everyday. No question Yelich and Cain have quality bats, but a big part of the value they bring to a major league team is left field and centerfield defensive, respectively. It would be a real shame if the Brewers put Yelich in right field and his arm proved to play like Kris Davis' arm in left. And it would be a bigger shame if they eventually put Yelich in centerfield and moved Cain to right field. Also would point out that Braun is a career +24 DRS and -3.3 UZR/150 as a left fielder, but is a -9 DRS and -7.6 UZR/150 as a right fielder. Also should be noted that Braun's arm played at a -4 level in only 798 1/3 left field innings in 2017. So moving Braun to right field is also a significant downgrade. Really wish the Brewers could somehow dump Braun.
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Just some past commentary from Baseball America's Prospect Handbooks on Yelich's arm-strength. 2011 - The Marlins will try him in center field in 2011, though he'll likely settle on a corner. His arm was a question going into the draft, but Florida tweaked his mechanics and believes his throwing can become at least close to average. 2012 - His raw arm strength is average, though his throwing is hindered by poor mechanics and a long arm stroke, which Miami believes can be ironed out. (Arm = 45). 2013 - A long arm stroke has hampered his throwing since high school, but extra repetitions and improved footwork means his arm plays as average. Biggest commentary on his arm would have to be that he played 5560 innings in the Marlin's outfield and did not have 1 inning as a right fielder. Obviously Stanton was there, but at the same time, Stanton was hurt a lot and it's pretty surprising that Yelich never played a single inning there. Will be interesting to see if the Brewers try Yelich as a right fielder, or if they put him in center and put Cain in right which wouldn't make much sense since Cain is probably the better centerfielder. I suppose I could hope beyond hope that the Brewers actually found a taker for Braun and Braun would approve the trade.
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I dislike the move but would classify it as a small bargain for the Brewers. If Yelich is projected as a 4 WAR player over each of the next five years his surplus value is a bit over 150 million. Obviously he wasn't going to get that type of return. I figured the Marlins would ask the opposing team to take on Martin Prado's contract and if that wouldn't happen then the team getting Yelich would be looking at giving up somewhere from 120-130 million in surplus value for Yelich. I'd estimate the Brewers gave up 110 million here so it definitely in the ballpark but a bit under my projection. If the Brewers had added in one more player like Freddy Peralta it would have pretty much been as expected. I just don't understand why, with investing so much in bats when it comes to the draft and international signings, that the Brewers used what was by far their biggest trade chip for a bat. No way I would have moved Brinson unless I was getting some top end pitching back. I like Yelich but don't like this move by the Brewers.