JosephC

The post wasn't meant to cast doom-and-gloom over the Packers cap situation. They are not in bad shape. The post was meant to explain that adding a player like Vita Vea at this time is pretty unlikely and the cap plays a big factor in that.

This one looks promising-

Packers just signed some no-name kicker. He's a German guy that played in the European League of Football. Very interesting.

The Packers are already in a situation where they will likely have to cut Jacobs, Banks (post June 1 designation), Hargrave and Franklin in order to make the 2027 cap work...and that is prior to a potential Kraft extension. I think they are done looking for any high priced players from outside of the organization this off-season. Just for kicks, I went to OvertheCap and plugged in guess numbers for the Wyatt contract (they don't have the details yet), and then put in a new 3 year, 72 million dollar deal for Vea (25 million dollar signing bonus). Note that Vea has a 17 million dollar base salary for 2026 which would not work for Green Bay, so this would be a new contract that would run from 2026-2028. After doing that, the Packers would be 8.8 million under the cap for 2026, and approximately 18.8 million over the cap for 2027. Cutting Jacobs (post June 1), Banks, Hargrave and Franklin after this year would take them from 18.8 million over to 29.2 under...and generally I would like to think they would prefer to roll into an off-season with at least 40 million to work with. Kraft is probably the last "larger" deal we are looking at over the next few months. What will really complicate matters more is if they decide they need to do a Love extension this next off-season. His 2027 cap number does not demand it, but they might feel the need to do it anyway. And unlike most extensions, where the first year of the deal has a lower base salary and give the team some short term cap relief, I would not expect that with a Love extension, just because I think the numbers of the deal will be staggering.

The Packers had a stock sale in 2022 that reportedly raised 65.8 million. The "rainy day fund" stood at 474 million in the 2023 financials. https://thebusinessnews.com/northeast/packers-report-another-solid-financial-year/ Three years later, the rainy day fund is over 700 million. Did they really need to do that stock sale in 2022? Where did all that money come from in the last 3 years? This team does not need more money from stock sales or free government handouts. The NFL and the Packers are swimming in money.

Policy is an ass. Packers get 432 million in national shared revenue. So they pay all the player salaries and misc expenses, and still have roughly 100 million left over. That does not even include "local revenue," which was reported to be just a shade under 300 million. So as you already said, when all is said and done for the year, they wound up +132.5 million. The rainy day fund is now 700+ million. And despite all of this, Policy is whining about how difficult it will be to stay competitive in the current environment. Get ready for the big swindle. Get ready for the state to kick them a free 30+ million per season for no reason at all. Hey, if the University of Wisconsin can get 14 million per year to pay football players, why shouldn't the Packers get a 30 million dollar "need this to be competitive" donation every year. Big-time sport owners/CEO/athletic directors, nothing more than pigs to the trough when it comes time to grab some taxpayer money. Can I say "ass" on this board? Whoops, I guess I already did. Policy is an ass.

Back in the late 80's/early 90's, there were a couple bars that I frequently visited where the air quality meter was probably over 10,000.

One thing is for certain, Gutekunst loves injured players.

Nice quote. Just more evidence how completely clueless the former AD was. It seems like there is a growing crowd of Luke Fickell fans in Madison, with more and more people thinking the football program's woes are less about him and more about his former boss. I personally don't agree with that, as I think there were some real obvious missteps right from the beginning (3-3-5 stack with smaller front line was never going to work in the Big 10), but have to say that I am willing to forget and forgive (for lack of a better term) with Fickell. It's just too bad that he's likely a dead duck, even a decent-to-good season probably won't save him as the new AD will probably want to hire "his guy" and the administration probably will approve the Fickell buyout because they won't want to handcuff they guy they just hired. And after the reports out of spring practice, a "really good" (not great) season looks to be a long shot as there appears to still be many deficiencies on the roster. Hopefully some of the positional groups can show some real improvement in the fall.

Of the people who were formerly in the athletic department, it seemed like most people were rooting for current Northern Illinois AD Sean Frazier. The first name that came to my mind was Jamie Pollard. However, it seems that Pollard is entrenched at Iowa State and would be unlikely to leave that job for any job. For people that had no Badger connections, Boise State AD Jeramiah Dickey seemed to be a guy that was getting a lot of mentions and would have likely been a popular hire. I'm not a fan of the Eichorst hire, but in the end it will all come down to what football coach he hires (yeah, I'm just assuming Fickell will be fired), and he could always hit on one. It's not like he's going to come in and ruin a good thing unless he sticks his fingers in the basketball pie and mucks that up. It's not like he can destroy the football program when the football program is already at a 35 year low.

This won't really surprise anyone, but word in Madison is that Alvarez "highly recommended/told the administration" to hire Eichorst and that is why he got the job. The link below is just one article, but I think it pretty much sums up the reaction in Madison. Lots being made of the Pelini firing and Eichorst's canned comments about learning and striving to be better. This is not a popular hire in Dane County. https://www.channel3000.com/news/im-looking-in-the-mirror-wisconsins-new-ad-shawn-eichorst-grew-from-shortcomings-at-nebraska/article_66dba940-5be5-4a49-ac0d-efbb8e04a11c.html

Not sure where all you guys are at, but as a Dane County resident who works with/knows many Badger grads and supporters of the football program (not major donors, but donors nonetheless), I can tell you that this hire has gone over like a lead balloon. One hire is obviously not a big enough sample to draw any definitive conclusion. It's just so interesting how, at the one AD job he had at a big school where he hired a football coach. he got rid of a guy that was good for 9 to 10 wins pretty much every year, and after making the change the program dropped to a 4 win team. He literally took the program to a low that they had not seen for 50 years. Hmmm, this sounds familiar. 7 straight losing season, and only now are they at the point where they have kind of clawed back to average. Hopefully, if Eichorst is really a dud, maybe we'll be incredibly lucky and he'll hit on his "blind squirrel" coaching find right off the bat. One thing is for sure, Fickell is a dead duck. I'm not even sure 8 wins will save him. I'm just looking at the Texas coaching staff, and if Eichorst hires someone like Will Muschamp, I think I will puke. And that's saying something, since I've stopped watching the games.

Garrett did get a new deal from the Rams. 35.7 million signing bonus, so that's money in his pocket right now. Guaranteed 30+ million dollar option in 2027 that is fully guaranteed. The Rams having Garrett as a bargain price for the next three years is no longer the case. He will be cheap in 2026. Previously his cap number in 2027 was only projected to be 21.4 million, but now with an option bonus of just over 30 million, plus the pro-rated portion of the signing bonus, plus a base salary plus other workout bonuses, his 2027 cap number will likely be 39+ million. Over the cap does not have the new numbers yet, but here is an outline of some of the highlights of the new contract. https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/inside-the-latest-myles-garrett-deal I now like this deal for the Browns...and by a pretty large margin. There is so much in terms of player/pick capital surrendered plus money given up, this deal is no longer a good deal for the Rams if Garrett is a great player for them. Garrett must be a great player for them, AND they must win a Super Bowl. Wthout that, this is a bad deal for the Rams IMO.

I was just speculating on the unknown incentives, and would think that would have to be largely tied to snap count (or snap count percentages). I had to look at recent Packer history and see what would reasonable numbers be to have snap count percentages tied to incentives for WRs. Over the last five years, the Packers top WR in snap percentage averaged 74.556 of the offensive snaps played. I thought that seemed pretty low for what should be the best receiver on the team. Snap percentage played by #2 = 53.83%, snap percentage played by #3 = 44.546. The Vikings have Jefferson and Addison, and I am pretty sure every Packer fan who still has at least one functioning brain cell will acknowledge that Jefferson is a better receiver than anyone the Packers have had recently and Addison isn't chopped liver. Same numbers for the Vikings averaged over the last five years. Top receiver snap percentage = 90.16, #2 = 74.97, #3 = 61.352. Granted, when you get down to #3 and #4, those numbers could be influenced by how much an extra tight end gets into the game. But I thought the difference in snap percentages between the most played WR (90.16 versus 74.556) and the second most played WR (74.97 versus 53.83) were pretty striking. Just to throw in a couple more numbers, DJ Moore, who didn't have all that great of a year in 2025, played in 84.84 of the Bears offensive snaps. For the amount of draft picks Gutekunst has thrown into the wide receiver position, he sure has ended up with alot of decent-but-not-great talent. Hopefully Watson can finally stay healthy or Golden turns out to be a hit. To grab some more numbers, DJ Moore, who didn't have all that great of a year in 2025, played in 84.84% of the Bears snaps. For the 2025 Lions, Jameson Williams = 90.26% and Amon-Ra St. Brown = 85.44%.

Overthecap have posted the numbers, and according to them it is a 4 year, 92 million dollar contract that can be worth the 110+ million if incentives are reached. Those incentives would be beyond the 2.125 million dollar per year roster bonuses that are routinely built into Packer contracts. Cap-wise, it's a cheap deal for the Packers in 2026 and 2027 with cap numbers of roughly 10.5 and 11.5 million respectively. 2028 has a low base salary of only 1.5 million, but there is a 13 million dollar roster bonus due on March 13. So that is a key date. If Watson has significant injury issues in 2026/2027 and the Packers feel they need to move on, and he becomes a designated post June 1 cut for the Packers prior to 2028, the cap numbers for 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 would end up being roughly 10.5 million, 11.5 million, 7.4 million and 13.6 million (and then whatever unknown incentive that may be reached). Curently the cap numbers are (without the unknown incentives) 2026 = 10,519,297 2027 = 11,538,415 2028 = 24,538,415 2029 = 29,163,418 2030 = 26,200,000

Fickell is a dead man walking. There was some hope that, with the weak schedule, the Badgers could be an 8 or maybe even 9 win team in 2026. After the spring practice reports, the same people are now thinking 6 wins and maybe push that to 7 if they get a weak bowl matchup. Even with a 7-6 record, that would bring Fickell's record at Wisconsin to a pitiful 24-27. A new AD will want to hire "their guy" anyway, and a 7-6, 24-27 record will not be nearly enough to save Fickell. Not to just dump on Fickell, as it is pretty obvious at this point that 75% of the problem was idiot Chris McIntosh and 25% Fickell. But that said, there has been nothing to indicate that Fickell is a Big 10 level coach. He looks like a mid-major coach that recruits mid-major players and hires mid-major assistant coaches. What do you know, the 6-7 record he had as Ohio State's head coach doesn't look like a fluke after all. And as far as celebrating high school commits in June, what a joke after what happened last year. Do the names Jayden Petit and Amari Latimer ring any bells? Even Latimer's "replacement," Qwantavius Wiggins, never made it to campus and will not be playing for the Badgers. I can see getting excited about some of the in-state players that commit, but a June verbal from anybody else is completely worthless.

If Garrett doesn't start crying about a new contract in a month, which he probably will, then IMO this is nearly a bargain trade for the Rams..and I really like Verse. Overthecap has Garrett counting 9.16 million against the Ram's cap in 2026, 16.05 million in 2027 and 21.4 million in 2028. 2029 has a 22 million dollar option, so the contract was set up where 2029 would be the new contract year if Garrett is still playing at a high level. But to have him that cheap for three years is a very, very positive aspect of the trade for the Rams. Too bad for them he will likely start crying that the 150 million he's already made just isn't enough, and they will lose one of the best aspects of this trade when they hand him a big, fat new contract.

Sorsby claiming he never bet against Indiana while he was on the team. Now it's come to light that he did bet on the under for Indiana passing yards in a game in 2022, and bet on the under for the first half in an Indiana game in September of 2023. Looks like he was playing in September 2023- https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brendan-sorsby-1/gamelog/2023/ Texas Tech, talk about an institution with no integrity whatsoever. Absolutely none.

I think they are fine on defense, but agree that they are very thin at almost every spot on offense. I see significant depth issues at RB, TE, OLine and then they didn't backfill the hole at WR after the Wicks trade. They lost Rasheed Walker, Romeo Doubs, Elgton Jenkins, Malik Willis, Dontayvion Wicks and Emanuel Wilson on offense. They have added Tyrod Taylor, Jager Burton and Skyy Moore on offense...that's if you want to even count Moore, which I wouldn't since his addition was about 95% special teams and 5% offense.

https://lookup-inmate-jail.browncountywi.gov:8443/IML

I'm not even sure Red Auerbach in his prime could put together a .500+ team with a doofus extraordinaire owner like Jimmy Haslan being involved. This is old news by now, but if anyone wants to get really depressed- https://www.profootballrumors.com/2026/05/jimmy-haslam-played-active-role-in-browns-2022-deshaun-watson-trade

At this time last year, the QBs that were getting the most hype as top picks in the 2026 draft would have been ranked something like - LaNorris Sellers / Garrett Nussmeier / Nico Iamaleava / Cade Klubnik / Drew Allar / Carson Beck. Sellers a top 10 pick, and possible #1 overall pick. Nussmeier/Iamaleava likely mid to late first rounders. Klubnik a borderline first rounder. Allar a second rounder. Beck a late second/early third rounder. As it turns out, Sellers and Iamaleava not good enough to enter the 2026 draft. At least Sellers is still a name, Iamaleava seems to have dropped from the face of the planet. Beck and Allar got themselves into round three, Beck being the only guy on the list of 6 to get drafted where he was figured to be draft a year ahead, and give credit to Allar for being in the ballpark. Based on that very recent history, someone could put a 2nd round grade on Sorsby and someone else could put a undrafted grade on Sorsby...and I would not argue with either. Who knows? I don't know how easily the NFL will look past the gambling thing. I think most teams will probably look at the rehab aspect with much skepticism. It's been a long time, but it's a pretty safe bet that the name Art Schlichter has not been forgotten. Pretty decent chance that Sorsby is fighting so hard to regain eligiblity because the NFL has given him the "we are not all that interested" vibes. It's worth noting that the last Packers supplemental pick was Mike Wahle who was a big hit. That was all the way back in 1998. Since that time, there has only been 16 players picked in a supplemental draft. Last one was S-Jalen Thompson all the way back in 2019, and he's been an 87 game starter so far in his NFL career. As a 5th rounder, he's an obvious hit as well. Lots of names on the supplemental draft list that have gone nowhere, but there are a few keepers mixed in there.

I don't think it's as much about the 1 million dollars as it was about dumping McManus when they did. Once he's paid the 1 million dollars, why not keep him through training camp and make Smack earn his spot? Gutekunst has drafted 1 kicker previously. That player was a bust. Of the last five kickers the Packers have drafted, they've had 2 hits and 3 misses, a 40% success rate. Smack was the 216th player drafted. In the last 5 years, there have been 10 kickers that were drafted higher than #216. Of those 10 kickers, only 5 are still with the team that drafted them. The last draft that didn't have at least 1 kicker drafted higher than #216 was in 2015 (no kickers drafted at all that season). Smack is no lock to be a good NFL kicker. Why be so confident in a completely unproven player? Is 2024 so long ago that Gutekunst has completely forgotten what happened? What sense does it make to pay McManus an extra 1 million dollars, and then dump him months away from training camp before allowing him to compete for the job?

The savings might only be 2.6 million for this year. Over the cap had him with a $5,278,431 cap number for 2026. A pre-June 1 release would have been a $4,333,334 cap charge in 2026, and a $0 cap charge in 2027. A roughly 945k cap savings in 2026. Over the cap has the post-June 1 release as carrying a $2,666,666 cap charge in 2026 (a roughly 2.611 million dollar cap savings) and a $1,666,668 cap charge in 2027. It all depend on, by rule, if that 1 million roster bonus goes on this year's cap or next year's cap, and I don't know exactly how that works. The only other dead money on the 2027 cap is Nate Hobbs 8 million.