brewerprospectwatch
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In this situation it really isnt about the value of the scholarship. It's about the value of the contract offered. Very few college degrees will pay a graduate $1,000,000 or $800k or $400k or whatever the sum may be. It could take someone, depending on the field entered, 20 years to earn $1,000,000, and that is if you can find a job right out of college. I value education, but the monetary value of a MLB signing bonus (in cases of the first 10 rounds or so) for any 18 year old kid is going to be infinitely more valuable than a college degree and education. Unless a kid is 100% certain that they wont get injured in college, and that he will be drafted HIGHER than what he is out of college, signing is always going to be more valuable in my opinion. And again, I am talking about the big $500k bonus type and above players. Heck even $300k and above does it for me.
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If you are an MLB team, you would much rather draft a HS kid before a college coach can get his hands on a player and give him different instruction than what your organization teaches. If I ran a team I would much rather get a high profile arm out of HS than a kid that has attended LSU for 3 years throwing 130 pitches a game. Financially it probably doesn't help to get kids out of HS for the teams, it just hastens the development and gets their hands on a player 3 years sooner.
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2014 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
brewerprospectwatch replied to 1992casey's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Hate the first pick but really like the next two. The only downside to Gatewood and Harrision is that there is extreme risk in both picks, but both are very athletic and both have big upside and celings. -
2014 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
brewerprospectwatch replied to 1992casey's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I'm not sure that the Brewers scouting staff can really make this claim, since their current farm system is ranked as one of the worst in baseball. -
2014 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
brewerprospectwatch replied to 1992casey's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Well, Bruce Seid just wrote his pink slip with that one. -
My top 5 of guys I hope the Brewers pick: 1. Michael Conforto, even though he probably will be gone, his power bat and hit tool, even though iffy defender make him an almost certain major leaguer with impact talent. 2. Touki Toussaint, the most likely, BPA for this draft, big projectible RHP with monster stuff and just needs to harness his command/control, but he is athletic enough to figure it all out. 3. Tyler Beede, another big power arm, athletic and big athletic body. Has had command/control issues but his athleticism should be able to correct that with professional coaching and projects as high as a #2 starter. 4. Kyle Schwarber, another big power bat with good hit tool, probably limited to 1B but the bat, like Conforto makes him an almost certain impact level player. 5. Brandon Finnegan, a small bodied LHP with 2 plus pitches and solid change make him a future #3 starter. Dont want Holmes, big soft body with control issues, Zimmer's limited power for a corner OF, Pentecosts hit only as a simply "eh" defender. And as much as I would love Hoffman, I dont think the Brewers, or Seid can afford the big risk him taking him at #12.
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If Schwarber is rising, maybe Conforto is falling or will fall right into the Brewers hands. I would take Conforto before any of the bats mentioned on this thread. I think he is sort of a sure thing, as opposed to Toussaint or one of the HS arms. And has more long term value than Beede might have.
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He should have lost his job after the Eric Arnett pick. And he also had 3 of the top 50 the year they picked Jungmann and Bradley, so I do not have a lot of confidence in him doing any better this year.
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I couldn't be in complete disagreement with you on both of these points. On Beede, he has great stuff and is athletic enough to figure out his control issues and start to repeat his delivery and get it on track as a more repeatable action. I think he would be a great pick, in complete opposition to Holmes who I see as a bad body with no projection kid who has control issues. He has good stuff but nothing makes me think he can work out the proglems. And on Finnegan, I see him as a steal at 12 if he is available seeing as how his "durability" issues were andswered in his last start. Again, good stuff, left handed, athletic. The big disappointment picks for me will be Holmes, Zimmer, or Pentecost.
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Braun's not getting moved until he starts to slow down, which given his body type, could be a long way off. Drafting a guy because he plays a position that you might move another guy to isnt a very solid philosophy either. Schwarber could very well be BPA and even if you have an all star playing the position right now, no reason to not draft that guy.
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I have read that he is more of a 12-15 HR type of guy, and when it comes to Lucroy, I dont think of him as a very good defender. I have seen him compared to Jason Kendall, but Kendall was a pretty dang good defender. The bat is nice if you are a second baseman. I would just rather have a catcher at that pick have power and be a good defender. I just want a more impactful player at that 12th pick. Schwarber and Chavis do it as well as a few of the pitchers, but not a hit only (without power) with an unspectacular defensive profile as a catcher.
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I see all sorts of talk here about Max Pentecost being a good catcher, yet he is seen as an offense first catcher, who won't give you any power with the bat. Average marks for his defense including his arm and issues about how he throws. These would be big reasons for me to not pick him at 12. When it comes to the most important defensive player on the team, I would much rather have a plus defender first and then worry about the bat. I am not a fan of Bradley Zimmer either for similar reasons regarding power. You're picking a Norichka Aoki type player at the twelvth pick. He's not a bad player to have, but this high in the draft I would rather have a RF with power than a Chris Donorfia role player piece. Same goes for Turner, as he is nice defensively, with speed, but a bottom of the lineup player is not what I would want with that #12 pick. I tend to think they have to be thinking about a pitcher at this spot and Toussaint, Beede and Finnegan have to be the top targets, and Schwarber being the top bat under consideration. Schwarber isn't a catcher but at least you are going to get a player who can play 1B or LF and not worry about his offensive production
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Hello Colbyjack, Baseball Americas draft preview mentions that Holmes has great stuff but bad control (paraphrasing). As for Beede and Toussaint, that can be overlooked by projection and athleticism, tying back into Holmes body type.
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1-1 (HOU) = Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State 1-2 (MIA) = Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd (TX) HS 1-3 (CHW) = Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego 1-4 (CHC) = Alex Jackson, C, Rancho Bernardo HS, Escondido, CA 1-5 (MIN) = Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia HS, Orlando 1-6 (SEA) = Michael Conforto, OF, Oregon State 1-7 (PHI) = Touki Toussaint, RHP, Coral Springs Christian HS, Miami 1-8 (COL) = Aaron Nola, RHP, Louisiana State 1-9 (TOR) = Grant Holmes, RHP, Conway (SC) HS 1-10 (NYM) = Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Sandalwood HS, Jacksonville 1-11 (TOR) = Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville 1-12 (MIL) =Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt
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Hi there, first time post to the group, but long time reader. I am just wondering why you are so excited about Grant Holmes? I see that you mention him quite a few times and are hoping for the Brewers drafting him, or Chavis for that matter. I am not really all that excited about either player. Holmes has good stuff but has really bad control and he doesn't seem like the sort of player the Brewers tend to rehabilitate into an impact major league pitcher, nor have success with. And then for Chavis I have no problem with the Brewers drafting him, except that there are probably 4 or 5 players who will be better, and available at the 12th pick. If available, I would hope to see the Brewers draft (in order of preference): Aaron Nola Michael Conforto Touki Toussaint Tyler Beede Kyle Schwarber Sean Reid-Foley Only the bottom two would be available probably because of all of the injuries, but with a draft so rich in pitching, and a farm system almost devoid of it I want to see them go with an arm, and with one who doesn't have such a divided opinion among scouts.