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BrewBalls

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Everything posted by BrewBalls

  1. BrewBalls
    Amazing how Brewer fans forget that Betancourt hit .267 from June 1st on with 10 HR and 50 RBI and a slugging percentage of .409 and the fact that he had 5 RBI in the NLCS vs. the Cardinals or that he led the league with 10 sacrifice flies that year. While it's fine to point out his shortcomings, I think a little balance is in order. Good point. Yuni B was a spark plug for the Crew and did come up big in the playoffs.
  2. BrewBalls
    My point is not that Headley takes pitches just to take pitches. My point is, Headley has better overall plate discipline and forces the pitcher to throw strikes or risk walking him. When comparing Ramirez to Headley if you look at their 2014 stats, it clearly shows Headley has better plate discipline and lays off more pitches out of the strike zone. BB%: Headley 7.1%/Ramirez 4.0% SO/BB: Headley 1.69/Ramirez 3.57 Swing pitches out of the zone: Headley 37.1%/Ramirez 56.0% Swing total pitches: Headley 43.0%/Ramirez 56.8% Simply put, Headley sees the ball better than Ramirez and tends to layoff pitched outside the strike zone which places additional pressure on the pitcher to throw strikes.
  3. BrewBalls
    But if you ask the Brewers you are just getting the starter sent to the bench that may be tiring a bit versus bringing in a fresh reliever that is throwing 95. Only about a quarter blue font on that. This is a good point. I'm not sure how it relates to team-building but most bullpens have pitchers that are better than their non-Ace starters. Look at KC. Would you rather face any of their starters (except for maybe Shields) or Herrera, Davis, and Holland? This is true but it also leads to an over-worked bullpen if your starters cannot consistently go deep into games which likely holds more weight when facing divisional opponents. You only need to look at the Brewers use of Thornburg, Smith and K-Rod early on to see how it impacts a bullpen come September.
  4. BrewBalls
    But if you ask the Brewers you are just getting the starter sent to the bench that may be tiring a bit versus bringing in a fresh reliever that is throwing 95. Only about a quarter blue font on that. This largely depends on the starter and the opposing teams bullpen depth. If you can get Kershaw out early your chances or winning increase. If the bullpen has lights out relievers for the final three innings it's then important to get to the bullpen before the 7th to increase your odds. Most teams do not have lights out middle relievers just set up men and closers. Besides most top of the rotation starters are tougher to hit the longer they are in the game.
  5. BrewBalls
    Just because their OBP are fairly close doesn't mean they are equal in value. Yes Ramirez gets more hits than Headley but you need to account for the fact Chase averaged 4.29 Pitches per Plate Appearance while Aramis averaged 3.39 Pit/PA. This keeps in line with their career numbers (4.02 versus 3.66) although it would appear A-Ram is getting less patient while Headley is becoming more patient. The value of making a starter throw more pitches can have an overwhelming effect on the outcome of a game. Getting the starter to exit early give the offensive team an advantage which might not show up not only in this particular players stats but his teammates as well. Secondly, its hardly fair to compare overall seasons reaching specific milestones since Ramirez has been in the league 17 seasons to Headley's 8. Also you are looking at career stats of to players at different points in their careers. Headley is only 30 and on the back end of his prime years while Ramirez is 36 and on the decline.
  6. BrewBalls
    This is pretty obvious by just looking at his last 3 seasons. 2012: .300/.360/.540 2013: .283/.370/.461 2014: .285/.333/.427 His power is declining quickly and I don't think he will even hit 15 HR going forward unless he can DH half the time.
  7. BrewBalls
    I doubt Headley signs for more than 4 years/$50M. He does pose some questions offensively but still offers a switch hitting, patient bat who can work the count and provide stellar defense at the hot corner over the life of his contract.
  8. BrewBalls
    Unfortunately, Travis is currently the bell of the ball in MLB. He should wait until after the WS to see if prices drop back down to more realistic prices.
  9. BrewBalls
    My stance is based on the value each player provides to their respective teams, ability to get on base and work the count and defensive value in relation the our pitching staff. Headley, in a down offensive season provided 4.4 WAR while Ramirez added 2.1. We are already getting above average offensive numbers from C and CF so our offense can afford to lose a little at another position like 3B. The Brewers also lacked players able to get on base at a decent clip or who could work the count. Chase's OBP is usually 80 points higher than his BA while taking 51 walks. For Aramis' career his is only 60 points higher had is coming off his worst season since 2003 by taking only 21 walks. Finally, Headley provides GG caliber defense which will allow our pitchers to throw strikes and not be afraid to let the batter put the ball in play. Granted A-Ram has been better than advertised over his three seasons with the Crew but for as bad as the defense broke down in September we could use some defensive upgrades going forward.
  10. BrewBalls
    I agree there are a lot of teams potentially looking for a 3B this off season but as I explained earlier, the Brewers are in a good position to land Headley for a lesser AAV then Ramirez. This would fill the hole at 3B for the next 3-4 years until Delmonico or even Gatewood, if his defense doesn't allow him to stick at SS, is ready to take over.
  11. BrewBalls
    My only concern on signing Ramirez to a one year deal is we will be in the same spot next year looking to sign a 3B since we don't have any internal options (IMO Rogers' ceiling is a solid bench/role player) and the 2016 free agent class headlines Beltre who will be 37 (who will still be expensive and likely to start declining) along with Uribe (37), Freese (33) and McGehee (32), none of whom I would consider better options than Headley from an offensive or defensive standpoint.
  12. BrewBalls
    The Brewers can definitely afford to outbid other clubs for a player like Headley. If A-Ram doesn't return it frees up $14M for 2015. In 2016, the Brewers have over $40M coming off the books (Lohse, Gallardo, Broxton, Parra, Estrada) and contract and arbitration raises of around $18-22M to Braun, Gomez, Lucroy, Peralta, Fiers, Segura, Maldonado Kintzler and Jeffress. This still leaves plenty of room for Headley going forward. MLBTraderumors predicted Headley will sign for 4 years/$48M ($12M AAV). Why do you think the Brewers have no chance to sign him? Finally what 15-20 teams do you figure will be bidding for his services? MLBTraderumors only lists 8 teams (Red Sox, Astros, Royals, Brewers, Giants, Blue Jays, Nationals and Yankees) with many off those options being long shots. The Yankees have A-Rod coming back and cannot guarantee Headley will even start full time. The Red Sox prefer Sandoval over Headley. Nationals and Blue Jays could fill their spot with Rendon and Lawrie by signing second basemen. Royals may choose to stick with Moustakas since he's been clutch in the playoffs and reallocate their available payroll to sign Shields' replacement. Astros are a possibility if Headley doesn't mind losing for the first couple of seasons. This leaves the Brewers and Giants giving us a 50% chance or possibly a bit less if the Giants win the World Series.
  13. BrewBalls
    I like the Ramon Santiago signing. He provides a solid bench option although I think Herrera provides them with a similar option while saving them $1M which could be used to add another bullpen arm.
  14. BrewBalls
    Personally I don't want to place all of our hopes on two aging players not declining. If the plan is to go after LaRoche then I would prefer letting A-Ram walk and replacing him with a younger, better defensive option, like Headley, who still provides above average production to the offense. These moves will shore up the infield defense and help to balance out our lineup.
  15. BrewBalls
    One more season of 200-300 PAs isn't close to having Smith for 6 seasons. Even if Aoki had posted a better OPS than his .710, this was a smart trade. Smith was a big reason the Brewers got off to their hot start. For 6 weeks he gave them the kind of relief that's catapulted KC to where they are. Unfortunately he couldn't sustain that but very few guys could. That trade opened a spot for Davis who was for the most part a productive bat in the 6th spot in the lineup. Aoki's a handy guy but not sure he'd have had much impact. As long as we're second guessing how about just dumping Ishikawa after he put up .257/.329/.428 for the Brewers in 2012? Those aren't great numbers but in hindsight were much better than they got at 1B the last 2 seasons. Travis only played 7 games in 2013. Not sure if he was injured. Although his numbers with the Pirates this season still looked dismal before rejoining the Giants, batting a mere .206/.263/.382. Based on what Loney signed for with the Rays, I wish DM would have made a stronger push to sign him. He is a left handed bat with good gap power, has a decent OBP (career .340) who provides solid defense. All things the Brewers lacked last season and his $7M AAV doesn't break the bank.
  16. BrewBalls
    The Brewers also had a bit of bad luck after the 2008 season when the Yankees signed both CC and Teixeira. If any other team would have signed Teixeira we would have received the Yankees 1st round pick #25 which turned into Mike Trout. Instead we got bumped to #39 and took Kentrail Davis. Granted there is no guarantee the Brewers select Trout at #25 but the possibility was still there.
  17. BrewBalls
    Another out of the box idea is to sign Jozzen Cuesta. Based on his underwhelming showcase he should be relatively cheap (say 5 years/$18M) which would allow the Brewers time to develop him in the minors to start the season. You could use Clark/Carp platoon to start the season with the idea of promoting Cuesta at some point. Unfortunately there isn't much of a scouting report to go on at this point since he didn't impress at his workout and was Abreu's back up at the 2013 World Baseball Classic and saw minimal playing time. Because the Brewers don't have many top tier position players in their farm system, IMO they will need to take a risk or two to stay competitive going forward.
  18. BrewBalls
    This works in the Brewers favor since they are already getting above average offensive production from both CF and C.
  19. BrewBalls
    I like the idea of trading for Cecchini who likely will be made available if Boston signs Sandoval/Headley. This move keeps payroll down and creates some space in 2016 when Peralta, Fiers, Davis, Segura, Thornburg and Jeffress all hit arbitration.
  20. BrewBalls
    1. Pick up Gallardo's option and trade him for the best prospect package you can find. 2. Tender contracts to Parra and Estrada. 3. Sign Headley: 4yr/$42M deal ($9M/$10M/$11M/$12M) 4. Sign LaRoche: 2yr/$24M deal with a team option ($10M/$12M/$2M buyout) 5. Sign Bonifacio: 2yr/$10M to platoon with Gennett 6. Sign either Crain or Bailey: 1yr/$1.5M to provide some veteran depth since i don't have faith Thornburg and Henderson will be ready to start the season. C - Lucroy (3.0) 1B - LaRoche (10.0) 2B - Scooter (0.5) SS - Segura (0.5) 3B - Headley (9.0) LF - Davis (0.5) CF - Gomez (8.0) RF - Braun (14.5 includes prorated $2.5 million bonus he's due in April) C - Maldonado (1.0) INF - Rogers (0.5) INF - Gomez/Herrera (0.5) OF - Bonifacio (5.0) OF - Parra (6.0) SP - Garza (12.5), Lohse (11.0), Nelson (0.5), Fiers (0.5), Peralta (0.5) RP - Broxton (9.0), Jeffress (0.5), Smith (0.5), Duke (3.5), Crain/Bailey (1.5), Kintzler (1.0), Estrada (4.0) Lineup - Gennett (L), Lucroy, Braun, LaRoche (L), Gomez, Headley (S), Davis, Segura, Pitcher My roster comes in at $104M while providing a very balanced line up, solid rotation and good depth both on the bench and in the bullpen with Thornburg, Henderson, Blazek, Goforth and Wooten on standby in AAA. My only worry is that we will lose Pena via waivers since he is out of options. This also shores up the infield defense by replacing Ramirez and Reynolds/Overbay with Headley and LaRoche.
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