paul253

I just saw that Toronto might be willing to trade their #8 pick. Would Milwaukee be smart to trade a future first rounder (maybe next year's first rounder top 3 protected) and this year's second rounder to Toronto for that pick? I just have this idea that in the deepest draft in years you need to get as many picks as possible. With #8 and #12 you can maybe walk away with a Perry Jones and a Kendall Marshall. Or a Tyler Zeller and an Austin Rivers. That would make Monta Ellis expendable at the deadline next year which could get you your first rounder back. John Hammond seems intent on piecing together a roster of veterans that don't know how to play together. The teams needs to go in a full fledged rebuild mode. I'd even consider trading Jennings if you can get a top 5 pick this year. I think he's made it very clear that he's gone after next season. I just don't understand Hammond's moves. I don't understand why he feels a team that is good enough only for about 7th-10th place in the conference is the way to go.

This is a very smart move by Epstein. Castro would bring a small fortune back. I shudder to think what Milwaukee would have to give up but I imagine it would start with Thornburg. I am unwilling to trade Thornburg, especially with the struggles of Peralta this year. I am also unwilling to trade Gennett. I think both of them are going to make big jumps in the next prospect rankings as their success is now at a higher level. Without Gennett and Thornburg there's no way we get Castro. Beside, as good a hitter as Castro is, 5 walks in 205 at bats is really hurting his OBP. His OPS is actually lower than Gonzalez's was when he got hurt. I don't want to see Melvin panic. The system is just now starting to recover and the payroll seems a bit out of whack. With a solid draft next week and continued progress of Thornburg, Gennett, Nelson, Jungmann and Bradley I am much more optimistic about the system than I was three months ago. The last thing I want is for us to give up three of our top prospects for one player.......again.

I think my best case would be Russell, Gallo and Weickel

paul, weren't Josh Murray and Josh Prince also high draft picks at SS? I wouldn't say we've ignored it, but we also haven't drafted a ton of them Josh Murray was drafted in 2002. Then there was Brent Brewer in 2006 and Josh Prince in 2009. So it seems like every three years or so they'll take a chance on a shortstop. This being 2012 maybe it's our year again. Russell could be the guy.

I'd love to see Addison Russell. The Brewers have seemed to ignore the shortstop position in early rounds since taking JJ Hardy and it's really showing. I know you don't draft for need but at some point you need a shortstop. Assuming they don't think he is a reach I'd like to see them take Russell then another position player like Roache, Gallo, Coulter, Piscotty, or Trahan. A projectable HS pitcher at 38 would work.

Ok well getting back a little more on topic. Who is looking like they'd be a suitor for Greinke and what will they offer us? Obviously Texas has been discussed but who else? NYY- 2.5 games behind Baltimore and TB right now. They shoot for World Series or bust every year and have a couple of pitching prospects that might interest us in Banuelos and Bentances. Baltimore - If they are still in it at the break they may want to throw their fans a bone and obtain Greinke. I don't know how good of a match it is though. They will not give up Bundy and I doubt they trade Machado so who else do they have that we might want? Cleveland - They made a huge splash for Jimenez last season and may be a little more cautious this year. Still, they are in first place when they weren't expected to and may take a chance on Greinke. Without being able to get draft picks for him though I don't think it's likely. Detroit - Also been talked about here. They are in a win now mindset with the Fielder signing. A 1-2 of Verlander and Greinke would be tough to match. I'd take Castellanos or Turner. LAA - Probably won't catch Texas but may play for that extra wild card. Do they have anyone that may interest us? Washington - They've been very aggressive as of late and could use another front line starter. Not sure what they have that we'd like. LAD- Probably the front runner for the NL Pennant right now. Again, not too familiar with their system so not sure what they have that we'd ask for. I think teams that believe that can resign him (LAA, NYY, LAD, Texas, Detroit, Washington) would give up more to get him. I still think Texas and Detroit are the best fits right now.

Green can always play second base too if we decide to move Weeks. Unfortunately with A-Ram (which I still say was a panic move and is now looking more and more like it's going to backfire) at third and Weeks at second with Gennett coming up, Green's window may be closing before it was even open (sounds a lot like Gamel doesn't it?) With Ishikawa now on the DL there is no reason Green shouldn't be playing every day, although we all know Brooks Conrad will be starting against lefties. I'd go as far as saying that you move ARam to 1st and hand 3rd to Green until he proves he can't handle it. That would solve your first base issue for next year as well and Gamel could come back and be the super little guy playing all the corner positions. But regarding Catellanos. As others said you get the best player you can. He's still probably two years away so we have some time with him in the minors but he is a very talented player and I wouldn't use Green as an excuse to pass him up.

It's not one of the worst in the game. It's probably around 14-16 at this point, and with a trade like this would be in the upper 5-6 at the least IMO. I have to disagree with this. The top 3-4 prospects are very strong (Thornburg, Gennett, Jungmann and Bradley) Then you have some guys who are either doing well this season for the first time (Nelson, Burgos) or guys who are just doing ok (Schafer, Peralta, Hall). After the top 6 or 7 guys there is a huge dropoff in my opinion and the underwhelming performances of Gindl and Peralta don't help matters. I do think this draft will help matters, but they need to think big and not settle for mid ceiling guys who may get to the bigs faster. We are probably not the worst system, but I'd say definitely bottom third. Does Grienke+Axford+Hart get us Castellanos+Jacob Turner? I would have to think Detroit would take this deal. I would take it in a heartbeat. That might be a win-win type deal. This deal reminds me a lot of the Willis/Cabrera for Maybin/Miller deal. I'm not sure if it's still the same GM but Greinke and Axford would be major gets for Detroit. All that being said, I can't imagine Melvin would trade Axford.

Deep inside I have a bad feeling that if Melvin was to trade Greinke, he would trade for "proven" mediocre major league veterans, or at least a bunch of mediocre major leaguers whose sole purpose is to fill in for the injured Brewers players. While I don't think he'd do that it wouldn't surprise me. But even Melvin has to see how barren the system is. Even with the Jungmanns and Bradleys and Thornburgs and Nelsons it ranks among the worst in baseball. If he trades Greinke and doesn't get a young player I think most hardcore fans will call him out on it.

Ugh.....what is wrong with Wily Peralta? Another 6 earned runs in an inning and two thirds today. If he keeps pitching like this he may need to go back down to Huntsville to get his act together.

Getting back a little more on topic. Detroit calls and offers Castellanos straight up for Greinke. Do you take it (assuming we are out of contention)?

And you're not saying that you'd take Teheran over Profar? That's not what I was saying. I was saying the combination of Teheran and Castellanos vs Profar and a project. It's hard to say without putting a name to "a project" but yes I'd rather take Teheran and Castellanos. If it was strictly Profar vs Teheran I'd take Profar. And truth be told, other than hype, I don't believe there is much of a difference between TT, Bradley, Nelson, Jungman than Teheran. I do. Teheran is in AAA right now and putting up a sub 3 ERA as a 21 year old. His walk/k rate isn't as good this year but he put up good numbers is AAA last year as a 20 year old as well 15-3 2.55 ERA 122/48 in 144.2 IP. Peralta is in AAA now as a 22 year old as is struggling big time. Thornburg is doing really well but he's still in AA as 23 year old. The other three are still in High A ball as 21 (soon to be 22) 22 (soon to be 23) and 22 year olds respectively. I like their upside as well but I think, as of now at least, Teheran is a step ahead of all of them with Thorburg being the closest. By the way, we also had Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum last year and didn't win a World Series. Well only one team can win the series each year. But all the teams you mentioned made the playoffs last year, Milwaukee made the NLCS. Tampa and Philly have each made the playoffs multiple times over the past 3 or 4 years. Milwaukee made the playoffs twice with Braun and Fielder. In 2008 and it's very possible that without Sabathia they don't make it. And 2011 with Greinke Gallardo and Marcum. I think based on the 2009 and 2010 seasons it's fair to say they don't make the playoffs without Marcum and Greinke, who went a combined 29-13 with a 3.7 ERA in 2011. Compare that to the 2010 starting combination who they replaced (Parra/Davis/Capuano/Bush) who went a combined 16-31 with an ERA of 4.87 (though that combines Parra and Capuano's relief appearances as well) The lineup was essentially the same (Weeks, Braun, Fielder, Hart, McGehee, Lucroy). The pitching is what made the difference.

I have to admit I am a little surprised you'd take Profar and a project over Castellanos and Teheran. Teheran is a top 10 overall prospect himself and I think Castellanos will make a significant jump from his current BA ranking of 45. You said superstars win World Series. I agree to a point but we had Braun and Fielder for how long without winning a Series? Or even making a Series? I think pitching wins the World Series. If you can get Teheran for either Axford or Greinke you take it in a heartbeat.

Does anyone know of anywhere in the Milwaukee area where I can get some cheap personalized tshirts made? I'm only looking for about 10 or so for a softball team and I don't want to pay a bunch for them. Any suggestions would be helpful.

Maybe I'm undervaluing Axford. Frankly, I'm looking at him and saying, if we could get a guy like Profar, with the total rebuilding project underway, is it worth it to trade Axford to get Profar, and a Brooks Hall type prospect. This I wouldn't do. I like Hall's potential but my opinion is that for Axford and Greinke you could do better trading them separately. But I'll ask this, would YOU be alright with Perez+Profar for Axford+Greinke? Which again I think is all moot because the Rangers aren't likely to trade him after his early performance in AA ball. As for the question would I trade Axford and Greinke for Perex and Profar? I don't know actually. I know Perez is regarded highly but his numbers don't really seem to back up his ranking. I'm not sure about his health either. If I had to answer now I'd probably say yes but I'd explore other opportunities as well. This is what I'm talking about. If you can't get Profar for Greinke straight up or Greinke + a mid ceiling prospect (Hall/Burgos/Rivera) then I'd look elsewhere. Greinke for Castellanos + another prospect is something I'd like. Then for Axford I'd look elsewhere too. One of the best young closers in baseball who is cheap and under control for another few years should get you a lot. Let's say NYY is looking for a closer. I'd ask for Banuelos back. Or if Atlanta is looking I'd ask for one of their young pitchers back (Minor/Beachy/Delgado/Teheran. (I do agree with you that Axford's value is probably at its peak and I would have no problem trading him either) So looking at the big picture would I rather have Profar and a Hall type prospect or Castellanos and Banuelos/Atlanta pitcher? I'd probably take the second. Which would you rather take?

I don't think the value of whatever picks you're going to get for Greinke+whatever you may get for K-Rod while having to eat some of his contract is going to be equal to the value of Profar. Which again, is essentially what you started off arguing. You wanted a superstar over quantity. That's not what I started off arguing. I started off arguing, or at least what I was getting at, was that you don't settle for players in return for Greinke like you might for Marcum or KRod because at the very least you'd get picks for Greinke...unlike Marcum and K-Rod. I've never argued that the value of the picks is equal to or greater than the value of the player(s) you could get in a trade. If I did argue that then I wouldn't think it would make sense to trade Greinke. My actual opinion is the opposite. My actual opinion is that the Brewers would be dumb not to trade Greinke if they are out of it. I also argued that you aim high for Greinke. I brought up Profar's name in another thread so he is definitely a guy I had in mind. The major disagreement you and I have is not how good Profar is, it is what you might be able to get for Greinke. the next question is, would you be willing to trade Greinke for Andrus? Unless the Rangers feel Profar is ready now I don't see this as being a real possibility. They aren't going to trade their starting shortstop in the middle of a pennant race just because they have someone who will be ready the next year. But assuming they would do it, I'd say no. Andrus is good but you need young cheap players, not guys that are going to be gone in 2 years.

No, you could not end up with the 11th pick. You can only end up with a pick in the 2nd half of the first round. Ie, the top 15 teams in the standings. You COULD also end up getting a supplemental 1st round pick for him, and a 2nd rounder..... Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the new CBA changed the protected picks from lowest 15 teams keeping their first round pick to the lowest 10 teams. If I got that wrong I'm sorry. I don't want to respond to every one of your points because they are all essentially the same. Looking back at my post I can see how you thought I called Profar a mid ceiling prospect. I apologize for that too but it wasn't what I meant. All I was getting at was that we should trade Greinke just for the sake of trading him. I just think it's crazy to expect MORE out of Greinke and K-rod than Profar or Machado I said this earlier and I will say it again. The ONLY thing, in my opinion at least, that would prevent the Rangers from taking Greinke for Profar is his contract. If Greinke was signed for 2 or 3 more years I wouldn't even consider that trade. You don't trade a legitimate ace for a prospect. So again, if the Rangers feel they need pitching to help them make a run at the World Series I don't think it's completely out of line to think they'd trade Profar, especially if they think they can resign him. Greinke might be the best starter on the trade market and they already have a very good shortstop who is under control for 2 more years. Again, I don't even know how to respond to this. Almost half my posts on this board have been about how important I think Greinke is, how I think signing him is the most important signing or move the Brewers will have made since they trade for Fingers/Simmons/Vook and most likely the most important signing of anyone they'll sign in the next decade most likely. So my underestimating Greinke is just utterly ridiculous. You're comparing his value to the team to his trade value. You may think resigning him is essential but you can still underestimate his trade value. If you are willing to add more players to a trade in order to acquire a prospect then you might be underestimating his trade value. If you are saying that Texas may still be unwilling to trade Profar for Greinke AND Axford, I think maybe you are underestimating some trade values there. Maybe I'm wrong. Who knows. It's just my opinion. Please don't jump on me for having an opinion. So as opposed to trading away both players for one prospect I'd rather take my chances with trading them separately. Someone mentioned Nick Castellanos earlier. That would be a great haul as well. He's hitting over .400 in A+ right now. . If the Yankees needed him maybe you could get a Manny Buenelos plus someone else. That'd be a pretty decent haul too. Like I said, I just don't want to trade away all of our best trading chips for one prospect. And considering Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now I don't see how suggesting we don't include MORE in a trade with him is an unreasonable stance.

The WFB school district is definitely one of the best in the state. I'd love to send my kids there if I could. As far as the area itself, it's a very nice area. The taxes might be a bit high but that would be expected.

Ok, and you think that with the picks you're going to get from the Rangers, you're picks are going to even approach the type of prospect that Profar is? I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that I don't want to give him away for a mid ceiling prospect because at the very least we'll get two draft picks in return. I didn't call Profar a mid ceiling prospect. Seriously, you're not getting ANYTHING for K-rod after the season. In season you might get a B-/C+ prospect. He's not dominating any longer. If you don't trade him, he's gone for nothing. You're basing this off of a quarter of a season. By that reasoning I could say that John Axford is no longer dominating. Teams have a tendency to overpay for pitching at the deadline. If K-Rod can start pitching like he usually does he may fetch a decent return. Don't base his trade value off of what we paid for him. The Mets were pretty desperate to get rid of him. No we're not going to get a #1 pitching prospect back in return. But that doesn't mean we won't necessarily be able to get someone who profiles as an everyday player. Right now someone who profiles as an every day player would be a pretty nice addition to our system. Greinke will get you a pick around 28 and very possibly 30, and then a supplemental pick. I'm sorry but how could you possibly know this? You are literally suggesting that he will only sign with one of the three best teams in baseball. We could end up with the 11th pick or the 16th pick just as easily as we could end up with the 30th pick. Boston may go after him. NY. LAA. Texas. Detroit. Washington. Miami. It's way too soon to proclaim that he'll end up with the best team in baseball, thus getting us the 30th pick. Sorry for all the posts in a row. But...you just HAVE to tell me....how in the world is Profar a "mid ceiling prospect," when he's dominating AA at age 19 and dominated HiA at age 18, already looks like a potential GG SS and everything else I've already said. Yeah, I just did a double take when it was stated that Paul I believe it was, didn't like the Profar trade to the Rangers for Greinke and possibly throwing someone else in and then going on to say he doesn't want a guy with a low ceiling and that he wants quality over quantity. Profar is the EPITOME of quality over quantity. That's not at all what I said. I said you need to aim for high ceiling prospects LIKE Profar and not settle for mid ceiling prospects by trading Greinke just for the sake of trading him. That's where the whole draft pick compensation thing comes in. Don't trade him for mid ceiling prospects when you may just as easily get two mid to high ceiling prospects back in the draft. Profar is exactly the type of player you aim for. But that doesn't mean you give away the farm for him. I mean....what is too much? You say you'd give them Greinke and Axford. Would you throw in Hart too? Weeks? Would you trade all of our trading chips for one prospect? I just think that you are either seriously underestimating Greinke or seriously overestimating Profar. You talk about him like he is the second coming of Mickey Mantle. And don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE Profar in a Milwaukee uniform. But with how many holes we have and how little depth, it's possible that three or four everyday players may be a better return than one all star caliber player. Maybe I'd consider the Greinke and KRod deal, but trading both Greinke AND Axford for him? I'd rather take my chances with what I could get for each other individually then trading two all star caliber players, one of who is under control for a few more years, for one prospect.

It's 2012 and Profar is excelling in AA. He could easily be in AAA by the All star break, start next year in AA and be up next season. To be fair the last time I looked at his stats he wasn't hitting as well as he is now. He's been hitting .325 over the last 10 games. Yes he could be in AAA by the all star break, but he could hit .240 when he gets there. That's the thing with prospects. You never know. Greinke is a former Cy Young award winner with a sub 3 era and a 22-7 record in his last 29 decisions. Let's not sell him short. The main thing that would hold Texas back from trading Greinke for Profar is the fact that Greinke is going to be a free agent. If Greinke had 3 years left on his contract I doubt anyone here would consider trading him for Profar.....I know I wouldn't. So it's not a matter of Greinke not being a good enough player to acquire Profar. It's a matter of whether or not they want to trade for a player who only has half a season left on his contract. If they feel they can resign him and/or are desperate enough for an ace (which teams usually are around the trade deadline), they may just do that. As of now Texas already has a shortstop who is hitting .309 and is signed for 2 more years. Sure they could move one of them to second base but that would probably minimize their value some. So yes, Profar is a good player but so is Greinke. Let's not sell him short and talk about trading him for a mid ceiling prospect. If we trade him I expect at least a pitcher with #1 or #2 potential or a position player who has all star potential. Definitely quality over quantity.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/huntcol_online23-j05h6cn-152854985.html I really question how much the Journal Sentinel's Brewers writers actually know about the minor league system and the draft. Michael Hunt says it's "safe to assume" that the Brewers are going to use both of their first round picks on pitchers. While it's certainly possible, is he not aware of the absolute lack of hitters in the system?

I don't like the idea of using Parra. The guy had no success as a starter after his rookie season. I'd love for him to succeed in the starting role, but he's finally found some success as a reliever and I don't want to mess with that. If it is just one start I'd rather see them go with Fiers.

The only thing I would add is that I think Profar might require more than just Greinke. It could be Greinke + K-Rod for Profar.... Even though it's only half a season, Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He's young, a former Cy Young Winner, and a #1 pitcher. If Texas won't give us Profar straight up for Greinke then I'd move on. Milwaukee has too many holes to fill to be giving up two of their best trade chips for one prospect who won't be ready until 2014.

I really think Addison Russell is going to be the pick at either 27 or 28. It makes too much sense both with what we need and what might be available when we pick.

If Nelson can improve that changeup look out.