paul253

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/07/midseason-top-50-prospects-list-2/ The Midseason BA top 50 rankings has Tyler Thornburg at #48. After watching him dominate pretty much every league he has been in the last 2 season that seems a little more accurate than the #107 Sickels list him as.

If this is what you can get for Lee, imagine what you could get for Hart.

paul253 said: If Profar is so great why don't the Rangers trade us Andrus? Because although Profar profiles that he COULD stick at SS, recent sentiments from prospectors and analysts suggest that Andrus is their long-term SS and Profar will take over for Kinsler at 2B who would be moved to the OF. Just to be clear, I'm not the one that said "If Profar is so great why don't the Rangers trade us Andrus"? I was quoting someone else and responding to it.

Once again, it's early. I agree. Coming out of the all-star break you have Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Cincinnati. If you can't make your move then (and by move I mean gaining 2-3 games on each team) then I would say it's time to sell.

Paul, I think that you are going to be as happy when Hart is gone as I was when Suppan was released. I'll be happy if Doug Melvin finally maximizes someone's value and trades them before they fall apart. I'd also be happy to offer Hart a one year deal when his contract runs out and take draft picks for him if he turns it down. I will not be happy offering a 3 or 4 year deal to a 32 year old first basemen who gets on base at a .320 clip. Like I said, I don't dislike Corey Hart. I just have a problem when a team with as few resources as the Brewers doesn't use them wisely. Multi-year deals need to be reserved for players you consider "franchise players". At one time he was one. So was Weeks. But that time has come and gone. We need to move on.

According to Buster Olney, if the Brewers decide to sell, Hart will not be available. Why would they? He may have the most trade value on the team and is on the downside of his career, but gosh darn it he is a veteran and we all know veterans are always automatically better than the younger guys. Why even bother seeing what other teams would give us for him? he likes it here and he can play 1B, which should prolong his career. He's been pretty darn good over there (6"6 sure helps) To resign him you'd probably have to give him at least 3 years. So you can pretty much write off Hunter Morris and Mat Gamel. Just like you could write off Taylor Green when Ramirez was signed. We are all sitting here wondering why we couldn't get Prince Fielder signed or why we don't have enough money to offer Greinke. But then we turn around and offer multiyear deals worth tens of millions of dollars to guys in their mid 30's. Quite honestly I'd rather take my chances on a guy like Mat Gamel or Hunter Morris for a tenth of the cost then Corey Hart. I like Hart. He's been a valuable member of the team for a long time. But offensively he is replaceable. He'll get you your home runs but he doesn't get on base, doesn't hit for average, and strikes out a ton. He's the kind of guy the Brewers need to walk away from, as opposed to overpay, so they can continue to compete and so you can have the resources available when you need to resign the superstars like Fielder or Greinke. I'll take Greinke and Gamel over Hart and Estrada any day of the week.

I just don't see us trading with our most heated rival, that's all, and I think Texas when it's all said and done will be Greinke's landing spot, if he is traded at all Why? If the Brewers trade Greinke this season it's because they don't feel they can compete and want to maximize their return. With Greinke being a free agent this season and free to leave whoever he is traded to it won't be an issue next year who we trade him to now. Unless of he course he signs with St Louis, which he is free to do whether we trade him or not. Automatically eliminating St Louis as a trade partner accomplishing nothing but having one less team driving up the price. If Profar is so great why don't the Rangers trade us Andrus? Because as good as Profar is he is not ready for the major leagues. And why would Texas trade us their starting shortstop in the middle of a pennant race when their top prospect isn't ready to replace him? Good grief, the Cardinals are like 3 games ahead of the Brewers at this point. Have you seen their starting staff? I'd be disappointed if the Brewers weren't able to catch them down the stretch. We shouldn't let other teams' opinions change ours. We need to decide on our own whether to sell, not say "oh well St Louis thinks they can compete so so can we". We still have like 6 teams to pass to get a wild card. Of course it's possible, but are you willing to risk letting guys like KRod and Marcum walk for nothing, and Greinke walk for a couple of late first round picks on the off chance you can pass 6 teams in 2 months?

To me, the bottom line is that 3b is not a position of need for the Brewers now, or for the next two years. Well you could put Olt in Nashville all next year so that would leave only one year of overlap. Hopefully they could move Ramirez then if Olt is ready even if it means paying a portion of Ramirez' salary. Ramirez is going to turn 36 in the final year of his contract. His production may certainly drop off and/or he may have some injury issues. Having a guy who can come in to replace him would be important. The Brewers don't really have any third base prospects of significant value in the minors. IF the Brewers are going to trade their best asset, they had better use it to shore up the two areas where they have a glaring need moving forward- pitching and shortstop. I think you need to approach this like the draft and just take the best player you can get, regardless of position. Obviously a shortstop would be nice but there aren't a ton of shortstops available and if you insist on that you may end up being very disappointed. The Brewers have a ton of holes in their system, especially at the upper levels. I hope they are not too picky.

The Brewers need to remember that they are in the driver's seat here. The longer the Brewers hold onto Greinke the less in the driver's seat they are. With the new draft rules I see it more and more likely that the Brewers make a bargain pick with one of the two picks they'd get for Greinke. Like this year taking Haniger over Gallo. And if they end up getting picks for Marcum too it'll be even worse. As far as I am concerned draft picks are nothing more than a consolation prize. Resigning Greinke would be a grand prize and trading him for an impact prospect, no matter what position he plays, would be next best. Getting the 24th and 33rd picks (for instance) is not an attractive option to me. It's better than nothing but I'd have a hard time believing the prospects they could get for Greinke would be a worse deal than the crapshoot of where you get the comp picks and who you get with them. The Brewers haven't had a whole lot of success with comp picks lately and I'd hate to see Greinke leave and us draft two guys who take 5 years to flame out in AA. This as opposed to most likely getting a player or two who is already experiencing success in AA like Mike Olt. Unfortunately the Brewers are getting hot at the wrong time and I feel like Melvin and Mark A will look for any glimmer of hope to convince themselves they are contenders.

I agree. If they don't give up Profar, then I say discussion over. So if they offered you a 23 year old third basemen who is hitting .302 with 22 home runs and an OPS of 1.008 in AA you'd still say no? I think I'd take Olt or Profar straight up and Perez if they included someone else.

What did he bring last season when he was pitching well? Danny Herrera. That was a very, very unique situation. The Mets were in a dire financial mess and KRod had a guarantee in his contract that he would have reached unless he was basically removed from the closer's role. The Mets were desperate to get rid of him. The salary relief was just as important to them as the players they got in return.

How did Tyler Thornburg actually dropped from his previous ranking?

The Dodgers want someone now, and Attanasio and Melvin aren't going to wave the white flag until the last week of July if at all. This is what frustrates me more than anything about Melvin, his unwillingness to call it a season. Milwaukee's baseball fans will not only understand but most are actually requesting it. His over reliance on expensive veterans is starting to bother me more and more. If the Dodgers are willing to overpay for Corey Hart then absolutely you trade him. But I have a feeling Melvin won't even make Hart available.

KRod has been pretty good the last two months. His awful start still make his numbers look rather pedestrian. If he can put together a good July I'd be willing to guess you could get something decent for him, especially if you don't demand pitching back.

The only promotions Melvin has anything to do with are the promotions to MLB. Reid Nichols and his staff control the rest and if i had to guess to Lee Tunnell is in charge of the pitching promotions and he's such a wonderful resource for our pitchers I'm willing to defer to his judgement. I would assume that Doug Melvin could easily say "be more aggressive with promotions, especially with the older guys" and it would be done. And of course they know more about it than I do, but again, perception just seems to be that promotions are slow to come even when warranted.

I've never had a problem with the temperature in there so long as the roof is closed. If I wanted to see a temperature improvement to Miller Park I'd like to see it be able to heat up more so that they can play basketball there and eventually make a bid for a Final Four.

I don't think it's really fair to knock the Jungmann and Bradley. We are talking about guys who are both top 10 picks in most drafts and quite honestly I think we were lucky to get them. Taylor Guerrieri was a guy I liked too but I couldn't have complained too much about taking a left handed college pitcher with pretty decent upside. Alex Meyer I wanted nothing to do with. And remember at the time our pitching ranks didn't even compare to how it does now. Jimmy Nelson had yet to step up. Burgos had yet to step up. There was no Lopez or Gagnon. We needed help bad and Jungmann and Bradley were both huge upgrades over everything we had other than Thornburg and Peralta. And at the time most people ranked them as better prospects than Thornburg. I have no idea why they are struggling so much this season but it's their first professional season so give it some time. By the way, he doesn't get much attention because he isn't a starter, but Tommy Toledo is putting up some solid numbers in Wisconsin. But it leads me to another problem i have with Melvin. He seems to take WAY too long to promote his guys. I understand why you let the younger guys like Lopez sit at a level for a while, but I get extremely frustrated sometimes with his attitude that players HAVE TO spend at least half a season at a level even if they are dominating. Tommy Toledo, for instance. He was a college pitcher and is old for Low A ball. Why is he still down there? Why did it take so long for Drew Gagnon to move up? I remember being ridiculously frustrated with how long it took Tyler Thornburg to be promoted to Huntsville last year. And even with how long it took him to move up to Nashville this year. Guys get attention by shooting through the system. This methodical, at least half a season at every level no matter how old you are attitude is a reason why a lot of these guys aren't getting the national recognition they should be.

The Brewers have very few guys who are "franchise players". Braun obviously. Gallardo. And Jonathan Lucroy is very close to being there, if he isn't already. Zack Greinke would be a franchise player if extended and I'd like to see the Brewers pay him accordingly. Everyone else on the team is expendable in my opinion. Corey Hart is past his prime and should not be treated like a franchise player anymore. What I don't like seeing are the constant extensions and contracts to guys who are just average or are past their primes. Corey Hart, especially at first base, is just about average, maybe slightly above. No way do you give him three or four more years at $10-15 million a year. That money can be better spent elsewhere.

Pastornicky would be a nice option to have for SS next season but no way is the centerpiece of a deal. Pastornicky and Teheran for Greinke and a low level low/mid ceiling prospect is what I'd look for if Atlanta came calling.

Well you forgot about Peralta, Fiers, and Burgos. Peralta started well and has been better of late with a lot of horribleness in between. I'm not ready to give up on him though. I think Fiers can be a solid contributor. Not an all-star but a solid 4 or 5. And Burgos, I don't know what to think of him. He has been very good this season, even once he was moved up to AA but sputtered every season before that. He'll be one to follow next season to see if he can keep it up. Thornburg has obviously taken the reigns of top prospect and run with them. I think Thornburg has the chance to be a 2 and Peralta a 3 so that's not terrible. But it just goes to show how important resigning Greinke or getting a #1 or #2 potential pitcher in return for him is. I think Melvin's biggest problem is that he seems to focus on a type of pitcher instead of looking at each pitcher individually. It's just my opinion of course, but he seems to have such a strong favortism of the taller, bigger type pitchers and he puts too much emphasis on that. Now that we have some legit prospects, I'd like to see him take more chances on high risk high reward pitchers instead of settling for the safer #3 to #4 ceiling pitchers. I'd like to see more early round high school pitchers taken. I think it is very important for Gagnon, Bradley, Nelson, and Jungmann to step it up next season. Our system depends on it. Oh, Brooks Hall is another name some people are high on.

If the Brewers rip up next year's contract, they could make it a new four year deal (60 million?). That might get it done. Ugh. $15 million a year and another 4 years? While he has been playing pretty good defense at first, he basically has one or two good offensive stats (slugging % and HRs) He cannot get on base consistently. He strikes out a ton. And he's clearly lost a step speed wise. He'll be 31 next season. I have no interest in giving him 4 more years. As I've said before, the Harts and the Weeks are the exact type of players Milwaukee needs to walk away from if they are going to continue to succeed year in and year out. I'll be very disappointed if they can't resign Greinke and then turn around and throw $60 million at Corey Hart. With guys like Mat Gamel, Hunter Morris, and even Khris Davis around I see no reason to give Corey Hart a contract past next season.

Paul just curious what moves could have Melvin Pulled off that year? Ok thanks for the clarification. I wasn't talking about that one year. I meant that had he found a way to develop pitching or to make impact free agent signings or trades to acquire pitching for more than a year or two the team could have been playoff contenders every season instead of just the one season he manages to trade the farm for an established ace. As much as I appreciate how much better of a GM he is than Bando and Taylor, he still has yet to develop a homegrown impact pitcher other than Yo Gallardo. That leads to paniced Free Agent signings (Wolf, Suppan, Davis, Looper), trades for arms to insert into the rotation (Bush, Capuano, Ohka, Vargas, McClung) and break the bank trades to get aces (Sabathia, Greinke, Marcum). The few legitimate pitching prospects he has gotten in trades (De La Rosa, Jackson, Cappellan) have all been flops and he has tended to take his major trade chips (Sexson, Lee, Overbay) and go for quantity over quality. Then when a homegrown pitcher does emerge (Fiers) he is passed over for guy who really has no long term future with the team. While the pitching situation has certainly improved, guys like Jungmann, Bradley, Nelson and Peralta are far from sure things. So again, while I appreciate the fact that he has brought us two playoff appearance and helped transform Milwaukee into somewhat of a baseball town, he is certainly not without his faults. And while we all talk about which prospects we'd like to get for Greinke, Marcum, and KRod, I'd say its far from certain he'll actually shoot for prospects. His trade history suggests he won't.

Shoulda asked him what was up

Bottom line, if Texas doesn't think that a guy is good enough for their rotation down the stretch, why should the Brewers want him? Not speaking specifically of Holland but Greinke is gone and we aint makiing the playoffs. So even if all you get is a #3, it might be better than the crapshoot that is known as the MLB draft. I doubt we'd take Holland straight up for Greinke as there are plenty of other options, but a solid #3 is probably not much more than you're going to get with a mid to late first round pick and a comp pick. My choices from Texas would be, in order: 1) Profar 2) Olt 3) Perez 4) Grimm. If I can't get any of them I move on.

Paul just curious what moves could have Melvin Pulled off that year? I'm not sure what you are referring to. Can you help me out The good thing about making a deal with Texas is that they have so many high ceiling prospects. If they show interest in Greinke, it's hard to say "yeah we want maybe the best available pitcher but you can't have any of our top 4 prospects". Could you imagine the Brewers approaching KC and saying "we want Greinke but you can't have Odorizzi, Peralta or Lawrie". If Texas says that Profar, Perez, Olt, and Grimm are all out of question then they are not seriously about obtaining Greinke. I think any one of them would be a great get, though admittedly I know little about Justin Grimm and would not accept just him. So even if Profar is untouchable, I think Olt or Perez would be a very good return. If somehow they can obtain two of those players, even if we have to throw in someone else, we'd still be better off. Greinke and KRod for Olt and Perez. I'd be down with that.