Jopal78

His in-zone contact rate is just 65.3 percent, significantly lower than the 82.6 percent big-league average. He whiffs nearly 44 percent of the time, while the average is 25 percent.

That is why his market was nonexistent, and most likely means it’s only a matter of time before teams further refine their attack against him 

15 hours ago, gregmag said:

I’m perplexed by your underlying assumption that everything Boston thought about Harrison before they traded him must obviously have been right. That’s been the core of everything you’ve said here, and it doesn’t make much sense. For someone who incessantly rips people for opining that the Brewers know what they’re doing, you take a very different attitude when the question is whether the Brewers’ trading partner knew what they were doing.

Yeah, if I want to win the division in 2026, I’m picking the guy whose career is in front of him rather than the guy whose career is behind him. Is that the safe-looking move to casual fans? Probably not. But I don’t think GMs win by trying to placate casual fans. I think GMs win by taking smart risks that casual fans a year later claim that of course they supported at the time (see, e.g., Priester, Quinn). You can cherry-pick the few stats that make Gray look good, but if you actually consider his value — you know, how much he contributed to winning baseball games, which I thought was what we were talking about — there’s no reason to think he’ll ever help a team accomplish anything substantial again.

Gray won 14 games with St. Louis in 2025 and 13 games in 2024, lead the league in FIP with Minnesota in 2023 and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting that year, but okay you’re right wins are meaningless and I’m cherry picking stats, he has no value…..

sheesh. 

47 minutes ago, gregmag said:

You keep repeating that line about binaries, but I don’t read people as making an argument that Boston was stupid because the Brewers were smart. My argument, anyway, is that Boston’s paying for Sonny Gray last offseason when they already had Kyle Harrison in hand was short-sighted based on available information at the time. The Brewers don’t have some magical pitching crystal ball. The Red Sox should have had at least some sense of Harrison’s talent. Gray is 36, coming off seasons of 1.6 and 1.4 fWAR at 34 and 35. Why would anyone pay a premium for that rather than rolling with the healthy, prospect-pedigreed 24 year-old?

Your answer seems to be “that’s what big market teams do.” I agree with your premise, but I’d call that kind of big market behavior a pathology rather than a capacity. Spending trade capital and/or real money for talented players in decline is objectively less smart than spending much less money for talented players in ascent whose contracts you already own. If you can’t do at least a pretty good job of identifying and acquiring players in ascent who will likely outplay obviously declining vets, then you shouldn’t be running a MLB franchise.

On a completely different note: Durbin has been one of the worst hitters in baseball, but he’s on pace for 2+ wins because of his excellent fielding at 3b, just more than a year after learning the position. You’ve gotta give him credit, as I’m sure the ever-patient Red Sox fan base will. 

Ok. Rewind to February 2026, if your goal is to win the AL East you’re picking Kyle Harrison to pitch you there over Sonny Gray? (Despite poo pooing him with metrics, Gray lead the NL in K:BB ratio last season and his WHIP would have been right behind Peralta on the ‘25 Brewers) If you’re being honest, of course you’re not choosing Harrison. And you’re right, big market clubs like Boston aren’t really don’t care of Harrison is the better pitcher going forward, whereas it’s lifeblood in Milwaukee. 

Back to the point, Boston is rolling with Sonny Gray,  as you put it, because they know what they are likely going to get in the here and now with Gray more than they did with Harrison. The Red Sox are also paying Gray just $11M this season and a $10M buy out on a mutual option for ‘28, with the Cardinals paying the remaining $20M.
 

Harrison has been great for the Brewers. But that does t change the fact he was down in the pecking order in Boston for objective quantifiable reasons (they had multiple players who would help them win more now, and had young ascending players who they believed would help them more to win in the future), and that’s why they moved Harrison to solidify a different area on the roster. 
 

10 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yes that's fine, fair, and generally true.  But that's not the same argument as "they already so much depth so he was expendable" which is all folks like me are saying. Three of those guys were not already in their depth to start the offseason.  They were lacking so much depth they needed to acquire 3 players at high cost while not realizing they had a guy sitting right there for league min if they assessed properly or had confidence in their development of him.   

But yea, your points on big market, urgency, lower risk, etc are all true as to why they would take such a route with vets instead of banking on him.   In addition, there is a legit chance if he was in Bos he would not be performing anywhere near the level he has for MKE due to how well they do with coaching and development here.   So in a way that also make Boston correct as there is a very legit chance he'd have kept floundering there.   But that's kind of what we're getting at, its because of poor assessment or coaching they made this mistake moreso than that they already such great depth.   

I work with a Boson sports obsessed guy, and all year its basically been complaining about how awful their pitching outside of Crochet. Which have to take with a grain of salt because in spite of winning like 25 titles the last 30ish years they never stop being negative/pessimists.  But of course then remind him how they gave us Priester/Harrison.

The depth thing is true as well though. We will never really know why Boston acquired Harrison in the first place . On possibility is  when the Devers situation ruptured and the Red Sox needed to move him immediately, there were limited teams willing to take on that big of a contract, and Harrison and Co.  may have been the best of a group of weak offers.

I do think it’s safe to say the Red Sox were never really enamored with Harrison. That would certainly explain why he spent most of his time in Worcester while the big league club cycled through starters at the back of their rotation.  
 

Also, it is true by the time camp opened Boston had assembled five pitchers who were likely going to start in front of Harrison  (Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Suarez) they also had Early and Tolle consensus Top 100 prospects who were major league ready.

Depending how you want to rank them Harrison was somewhere between 6th and 8th on the depth chart.

They were presented with an opportunity to get a starting 3B, a utility infielder and whatever Siegler is for Harrison and Drohan and they took it. 
 

It makes perfect sense unless you view these things as a binary: because Harrison has performed well, Boston must have made a mistake. 

27 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Which is exactly what teams like the Brewers take advantage of. Other teams trade and sign has beens that are beyond their best years and Brewers get a more talented guy that is cheaper. It's kind of necessary in the current structure of MLB with players taking so long to get paid what they are worth but leaves opportunity for other more frugal teams.

It’s also a byproduct of being in the smallest market in the league. There is more patience for players like Harrison and Sproat to hone their skills, because even if the Brewers lost 90 games, nobody in leadership is getting fired.

Then you have Boston who won 89 games last year, made the playoffs yet was considered a disappointing season. This year they started off on the wrong foot in April and their manager is already fired and the media is wondering if the GM should next. 
 

Harrison is a talented guy, but I think it’s safe to say the Red Sox believed they were better off with Gray, Suarez Oviedo Bello , Tolle, Early and traded Harrison to get  infield depth. 

Like I wrote before it’s not a binary system where because Harrison has pitched well for Milwaukee Boston automatically made a poor decision, trading him away. 

5 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

And sign Saurez for a bunch of money rather than keep this guy for league min. 

Be serious. Suarez and Gray are both veteran all stars.  Harrison is a talented player but prior to this season his career era+ was  91 and his career whip was 1.31. Boston was adding pitchers to help them win immediately
 

2 minutes ago, mudbutt said:

Red Sox fans like to say that, but then why did they trade for two SPs before the Durbin trade in the offseason in Gray and Oviedo?

They liked them better than Harrison?
 

It’s not a binary situation where one team is smart and the other is unwise. The Red Sox built up a lot of SP depth then used some of it to fill a hole on their roster- infield depth.
 

17 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

The whole thing is weird..

As was suggested earlier in this thread, my guess is this was Boston's idea.  That they wanted Durbin.

Weird trade all around. 

Take a peek at their rotation. Top 100 prospects Early, Tolle, then Crochet, Saurez, Gray, and Bello. That’s six, Harrison was probably no higher than 7 on their depth chart (In hindsight you can say they had the ordering wrong)  They wanted infield 3B depth more than they wanted starting pitching depth .

22 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Ok... I guess if you just proclaim it's the "end of the discussion," it's the end of the discussion😃

Be my guest…. Use up that bandwidth to gush your hopes and dreams. There is a snow ball’s chance in hell Misiorowski signs an extension with the Brewers. Now where is that ignore button…. 

25 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I think it's working out wonderfully with Ashby, I think he has surplus value, but... there's also a rather wide chasm between what Misiorowski IS right now and what Ashby has EVER been. 

And we're doing pretty good developing position players. I don't think that supports an argument of 'we do it so well, why sign him.' 

I don't believe we can find another Misiorwoski for a penny on the dollar. He's not just some guy, he's probably the most dominant or overpowering talent the Brewers have ever had. So if we're going to argue the risk is big, ok, fine. But lets not just ask like he's another guy and we'll just replace him. 

 

I also don't get the last part. "Let another team pay hundredS of millionS for him to have elbow surgery at 30. 
Nobody has suggest we pay "hundredS of millionS," and most pitchers eventually have surgery. 

But obviously... not everyone has to agree. I feel like there'd be a lot of celebration IF we signed him, but since we know it's a long shot, we're arguing against it. 

If he’s the most dominant pitching talent the Brewers have ever had, why would Misiorowski be interested in an extension in the first place? He got a multi million dollar bonus when drafted (2.3M), so his circumstances are different than Chourio, Peralta, Ashby, etc. 
 

That’s kind of the end of the discussion. 
 

Misiorowski has no incentive to do anything else but build his resume and hit free agency after 2031, then let teams come to him with amounts of money that would shock the conscience. 
 

From the Brewers perspective, they could sign any player they want if they’re willing to pay the going rate, but we all know they’re not going to do that. 
 

It’s the same as what Paul Dolan said about Lindor when he was in Cleveland, “Enjoy him”.

17 hours ago, Klantz27 said:

I feel like pratt has to be called up here at some point soon if they leave him in the minors this year and lose next season to lockout its essentially a 6 year deal for 47.25 million thats a terrible deal in my opinion 

 He signed an 8 year contract with a 50 million dollar guarantee. By your comment above, I take it you’re not a fan of that event in the first place. 

The reality is Pratt signed a cut-rate extension with the Brewers where he’s going to have an AAV of 6.3 million dollars. With the price of even mediocre free agents reaching 10 million AAV, Pratt will have to fail almost completely for the Brewers to not have a bargain on their hands. Keep in mind the biggest money for Pratt is in the club options, where he does not get a buy out if the Brewers decline them. 
 

True they are paying him more than they have to this year, but that’s no reason to throw him in the major league lineup when he hasn’t yet mastered AAA pitching 

On 5/6/2026 at 11:26 PM, adambr2 said:

He was horridly inconsistent. He didn’t lock down a rotation spot as expected. He had an ERA over 4.50 and was a below replacement level player.

The strikeout prowess was still there. That was the positive. 

Surely we had higher expectations than taking the ball every 5th day.

Also — giving up 9 hits and 3 ER in 5 innings is keeping your team in the team ? Going 4 innings and giving up 3 earned is keeping your team in the game ? Talk about a low bar.

Look at the totality of the circumstances. He made 11 starts, went 5 IP or more in 8 of them. Made only 1 start where he allowed more than 4 runs (that was the last week of the regular season when playoff positioning was no longer in question).

The back of the rotation was a mess in 2024 with Miley and Gasser blowing out their elbows. Bryce Wilson barely averaging 4+ innings per start, Dallas Keuchel running on fumes, then ultimately Joe Ross. 

Ross was moved to the pen when Montas arrived. Ross as the #5 starter had an ERA of 4.97. The last two months of the season in the pen his era was 1.97. 
 

Adding Montas improved the rotation AND improved the bullpen. 
 

I get it, you don’t like Montas and liked Joey Wiemer, but there are no facts that support the position that Montas was anything but a solid acquisition for the Brewers. 

On 5/5/2026 at 2:05 PM, Lathund said:

His overall career numbers are still those of a below average hitter (88 wRC+). So even if he wasn't declining, even if he played to his career norms, he'd still be a well below average player overall. Even at his peak (2022-2024) when he put up a 111 wRC+, that still basically only made him a league average player alongside the rest of his game. And his underlying numbers this year aren't good either; a .278 xwOBA is basically in line with Ortiz (.273). Him hitting more fly balls isn't a positive either, when it comes at the cost of line drives. LDs generate significantly better outcomes than fly balls, especially for someone like Rengifo with a 21st percentile EV. 

Sure, I think he's better than his current 44 wRC+. He'll play better going forward. But for him to be worth rostering, he'll need to exceed his career averages. And I don't see anything in what he's doing to suggest he's capable of that. If he was someone with higher career highs, I'd be more patient. I just don't see the value when even the absolute best case realistic scenario is that he'll end up an average starter. And most cases significantly less than that. I don't mind them taking a chance on him on a cheap 1-year deal like this, hoping to catch a return to his better days. But nothing suggest that's going to happen, so better move on IMO. 

You may be right, but whether he’s worth rostering is not wholly dependent on his metrics, but is equally dependent on who else they have that could take his spot.
 

It’s unrealistic to assume they’re going to reach a breaking point and call up one of their higher ceiling prospects who has a lower floor currently than Rengifo then let that player repeatedly fail in the majors while the team has postseason ambitions. 
 

Fact is, no matter how bad their SS and 3B play offensively, they’re going to run them out there until the decision makers believe they have a player ready to take their jobs, and by all indications there isn’t right now. 

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

The amount of blowback in here when anyone suggests that Frankie Montas was not that great of an acquisition, is always something to behold. He was modestly better for us than the complete liability he has become since then, I’ll grant that.

Its whatever, I’ve never said it was that big of a deal, and I’ve transparently said numerous times that Wiemer could have been acquired by anyone since then. I just never liked Montas much, and didn’t like the deal. It was definitely not one of Arnold’s better ones. Obviously he’s had a good track record overall, 

I think we can certainly agree though, that he would have been playing over Greg Jones and Blake Perkins this season.

Montas took the ball every 5th day, ate innings at the back of the rotation and kept them up in every game but one. And for that production they gave up a renal middle reliever who had missed three months with an injury and a journeyman outfielder. How is it anything but a huge win from the Brewers prospective?

Indisputable talent, but is Sproat going to be anything when he’s staked to a huge lead and has trouble finishing 5 innings .

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

It can also mean bad all the time. 🤷‍♂️

51 minutes ago, Lathund said:

I'd honestly call up Pratt right now at this point. The one I'd have him replace is Rengifo though, with Ortiz becoming a pure defensive sub / bench player. Neither Rengifo or Ortiz offers much offensively, but at least Ortiz can play defense. Rengifo at his best was an average major leaguer, and he's far from his best. Give that playing time to someone who is part of the future. Like even if Pratt (Or Williams) struggle initially, I'd expect them to beat the 44 wRC+ of Rengifo. 

Rengifo may be a declining player but his OBP is 30 points below where it was last year and 50 points below his career average. His slugging percentage is 60 points below where it was last year and  100 points below below his career average. His exit velocity is the same as last year and he’s hitting more balls in the air than last year. 
 

Unless Rengifo has truly hit the the wall physically at 29 which doesn’t seem likely, his statistics suggest he’s  going to  start playing better

14 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

I wonder if Priester is headed towards surgery if rehab is not working for him?

With thoracic outlet syndrome, it is probably wishful thinking that he would ultimately avoid surgery, but obviously the best thing for his career would be to try to rehab the injury. First time will tell.

16 minutes ago, willie key said:

Unbelievable that they aren’t even trying to fix shortstop and third base.    Enjoy last place 

Yep, trade Made and Williams tomorrow for Machado and call up Pratt to SS. Sheesh 

I thought the Cardinals were supposed to be rebuilding 

1 hour ago, Bulldogboy said:

Mitchell needs to pick up especially with putting the ball in play more to increase his overall level of production. There is nothing you can say to make that an untrue  statement. I have seen him mention that same fact. If you're good with him he can breathe a sigh of relief. Hitting 231 and 750 ops isn't anything to be excited about in my opinion but knowing that you're good with him at current production is fine. Doesn't change my opinion one bit.

A CFer with a .750 OPS and Mitchell’s speed and defense would play in the majors for a decade or more. 
 

Lorenzo Cain 13 years .749 OPS

Mike Cameron 17 years .249 BA .782 OPS

Carlos Gómez 13 years .724 OPS

Devon White 17 years .739 OPS

[Collectively 8 All Star appearances too]

If Mitchell has super star potential then yes, he should pick up his game. If this is his ceiling (low BA with .750 OPS) the Brewers don’t need to worry about CF so long as he’s healthy. 

On 4/22/2026 at 8:43 AM, Playing Catch said:

I think we could use a thread dedicated to crazy stats and discussing them.

I couldn't believe the other day when I saw Teddy Higuera's 1986 season, when he led the league with 9.4 bWAR. That's more than Ohtani's 50-50 season.

Crazier to think that Clemens threw 6 more innings than Higuera (254 to 248) that year while starting one less game (33 to 34). Clemens allowed 47! fewer hits (179 to 226) and struck out 31 more (238 to 207). 

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

It isn't a forgone conclusion they won't offer him arbitration even if he does have surgery on his elbow. He's only going to cost a 40 man spot until he can be placed on the 60 day DL and there's no telling what's going to happen after the season is over given the current agreement with the players is up. When all that is sorted out we might have a clearer picture of whether it was a bust or not. Even then, only if he's not on the roster. If he's still here then we'll have to see how well he does to determine if it was a worthwhile trade or not.

A team can’t leave someone on the 60 day IL after the World Series. They’d have to DFA Zerpa or keep him on the 40 man until late February early March when the 60 day Il applies again. Could it happen? Sure, but the Brewers are also going to have minor league players they want to protect and other loves they want to make which could place 40 man spots at a premium.

if Zerpa has surgery as rumored he’s done for this year and possibly/probably into next year. 2028 would be his final year of control. 

So just considering Mears could give the Royals 110-120 innings before free agency after 2027; Zerpa  may not even get to that number of IP pitched between now and September 2028 if he has an elbow injury requiring surgery. 

Sorry, but it looks like a bust. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but the circumstances don’t look good right now for Zerpa to contribute meaningfully as a brewer.

Then again, if the biggest thing to argue about is the future of a middle reliever, it means it’s a good time to be a Brewer fan

2 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

Great job by Ashby getting out of the minor jam.  Mitchell's K's are quickly becoming alarming. He's whiffing at a 40% rate. 

With a .390 OBP it doesn’t really matter 

3 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Call it what you want. It was simply bad luck.  "bust" is stupid.

Of course it’s bad luck, but if he has hurt his elbow to where he requires surgery (unknown but getting a second opinion is an ominous indicator) and is out until some unknown time in 2027, while already heading into his second year of arbitration. If all those things turn out to be true, he likely will never pitch again for the Brewers (this is especially so considering all the talent they will need to add to the 40 man roster in the short run).

Thus, if you give up a pitcher like Mears who has been decent for the Royals, along with a depth piece in Collins for 11 innings of Zerpa, it’s the definition of a bust: more talent and production went out the door than came back.