Ron Robinsons Beard
-
Posts
17,246 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
27
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Ron Robinsons Beard
-
Nick Castellanos
Ron Robinsons Beard replied to Ron Robinsons Beard's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
It appears that the Brewers may be thinking that way. -
Nick Castellanos
Ron Robinsons Beard replied to Ron Robinsons Beard's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think the Brewers will go with Ozuna on a 1-year deal over a multi year deal with Castellanos. As much as I dislike Ozuna, I’d be ok with that. I can’t see Ozuna signing a 1-year deal though. -
Perhaps the Brewers have identified over-inflated defensive value as a market inefficiency? The moves so far do point in that direction. This is a team that is always going to be thinking outside the box, and these may very well be another way of doing that. I mean, we are talking about a team that has put two lumbering 3B at 2B two years in a row, and they were just fine.
-
Yes, they did. But I think it's important to differentiate when it doesn't happen which it didn't in this case. I thought his explanation was a good one, though, when he pointed out that if Zillow puts a $500,000 estimate on a house that sells for $300,000, they can't insist the house is worth $500,000. They have to adjust their estimates based on the market. I'm pretty sure he admitted they were off on that one, but like any other market, it was never designed to be perfect. It fluctuates based on many factors, one of course, being real life trade results. They have to constantly re-evaluate and adjust. That goes for any value based estimate around. The adjustment wasn't made to save face and try to make it look more even. It was made because they had to adjust values based on what the real life market told them those players were worth. That Zillow analogy makes no sense. Then every single trade is even by definition. Exactly! It's a cop out in my opinion.
-
Yes, they did. But I think it's important to differentiate when it doesn't happen which it didn't in this case. I thought his explanation was a good one, though, when he pointed out that if Zillow puts a $500,000 estimate on a house that sells for $300,000, they can't insist the house is worth $500,000. They have to adjust their estimates based on the market. I'm pretty sure he admitted they were off on that one, but like any other market, it was never designed to be perfect. It fluctuates based on many factors, one of course, being real life trade results. They have to constantly re-evaluate and adjust. That goes for any value based estimate around. The adjustment wasn't made to save face and try to make it look more even. It was made because they had to adjust values based on what the real life market told them those players were worth. But when you do that, it after-the-fact eliminates the idea that sometimes, on the surface, one team just does substantially better than another in a deal. I don't know. I guess I just appreciate accountability, and a simple "Wow, the Brewers blew the Padres out of the water in this deal" or "We obviously screwed up and got the value wrong, this isn't an exact science" is better than going in and retroactively adjusting the numbers. I mean, Urias is an extremely well known prospect, and has been for several years. He certainly wasn't flying under the radar in the prospect community. I don't see how changing your assigned value on a player simply based on the value he was traded for holds much water.
-
Nick Castellanos
Ron Robinsons Beard replied to Ron Robinsons Beard's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
David Stearns didn't rule out a little first base for Narváez. Also said Brewers "have had ongoing discussions with Ryan Braun about defensive versatility." Brauny better get that 1B glove ready. With the deal for Narvaez, signing someone like Castellanos to play RF for a couple years, with an eventual move to 1B, makes even more sense. -
Dominic Smith as 1B of the future?
Ron Robinsons Beard replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This is a team that, for two seasons in a row now, has stuck a lumbering third baseman at 2B, and then managed to replace one of those guys with a "legit" 2B that is significantly worse defensively during the season last year. They've made it work. I'm not sure if you are just trying to temper the enthusiasm around here this morning, but cheer up -
Yeah, those numbers definitely got altered to make this seem more even than it actually was. Just like last week's deal. Joey, I think you're one of the best posters around but I personally think this is unfair to John and their models over at baseballtradevalues.com to assume that without knowing (if that's in fact what you are doing, I could be wrong and maybe you were saying that off an earlier posted projection in which case I apologize).. But as he pointed out, Narvaez was consistently at $5.1M. I checked it this morning and it was indeed at $5.1 well before the return was announced. That was the main reason I didn't expect a significant return so I would disagree with you entirely in this case and say that based on the trade return, John's projections were in fact validated, not altered. To answer SRB (at least in part), you can't just project his WAR out and put a price on it, you also have to subtract his projected arbitration salaries as well. I don't even know if the traditional 9M per WAR value is even applicable anymore or if it is in fact outdated, nor do I know if they use that to calculate value. Perhaps I simply assumed that Narvaez's number was adjusted, and that doesn't appear to be the case. I apologize. But didn't John actually come out and say that Urias's value was lowered following the trade last week, and that it made that deal appear more even than it originally should have? That is a somewhat dangerous precedent to set, as it allows for mystery and confusion when you, in essence, move the goalposts.
-
No need to use Hader to fill these holes, IMHO. Quick ... who are some underappreciated assets that could provide corner infield production that the Brewers could trade more peanuts for? J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith have been mentioned a lot so far. Jeff McNeil isn't exactly underappreciated, but he'd be a fit. I wonder what it would take to pry Colin Moran away from the Pirates? Or Jose Osuna?
-
I think it's pretty obvious by now that the Brewers see an open contention window for the next 2-3 years, and they are jumping through it with both feet. The team has identified weaknesses at the major league level, and has aggressively attacked them. When you do that, another part of the organization is going to take a hit. In this case, it is a hit to the talent level at the lower rungs of the team's minor league system. Fortunately the Brewers have mitigated that talent gap somewhat by being much more active in the international free agent market in Latin America, and have several prospects in the lower parts of the minors that have the talent equivalent of a player drafted at the 71st spot of the draft. When you compare the Brewers' team building philosophy to other finge playoff teams, such as your Indians, it's a matter of preference. The Indians have arguably not done enough to use their crop of good prospects over the years to shore up the major league team. Yeah, they've dealt off highly rated guys like Mejia and Clint Frazier over the years, but have neglected filling their most obvious holes - a lack of talent in the outfield - to supplement the huge talent in the infield. Now they are at the point where they have a lot of big salaries, and are looking at a rebuild, dealing off guys like Lindor to get upper-end minor league talent. They may be looking at a soft rebuild after missing the window. I don't think either philosophy is necessarily right or wrong. But I don't think you can fault David Stearns for being aggressive to fill the major league team's holes with as much talent as he can get.
-
Thought this was pretty interesting. Hill is the 200th (!!!) player to be involved in a trade under Jerry Dipoto's watch as the Mariners GM. Dipoto has been the team's GM for just over 4 years.
-
Nah, patience is overrated! We are in the age of crazy over-the-top hot takes! This is fun. It's so cool cheering for a team that makes intelligent decisions and doesn't freak out and make reactionary moves. You don't know that! It's possible Stearns was reading Brewerfan last night and thought "Whoa, I better do something". Hence, trade today. Good point. Hey Dave! Nice work!
-
Yeah, those numbers definitely got altered to make this seem more even than it actually was. Just like last week's deal.
-
Nah, patience is overrated! We are in the age of crazy over-the-top hot takes! This is fun. It's so cool cheering for a team that makes intelligent decisions and doesn't freak out and make reactionary moves.
-
David Stearns continues to play chess while other GMs fight over the checkers board. The guy obviously hasn't batted 1.000, but he is so good at his job, it's really hard to believe that he hasn't been stolen away by a big market. I expect more fun outside-the-box thinking to fill the holes at 3B and 1B. A little leery on the pitching holes, though. If Stearns has a weakness, it's in identifying higher-end pitching targets. He does, however, do well in identifying guys who can fit into a role and excel. Lyles and Pomeranz are prime examples.
-
I think the delay was Stearns waiting for Haudricourt to tweet something like the above and then promptly provide yet another reason for us to ridicule our "well-connected Brewers expert" beat writer... This guy is such a bum its unbelievable. Can't stand his snarky attitude about everything, that added to the fact that hes very rarely right makes for a bad combination. He basically answers snark with snark. Brewers Twitter is a cesspool. Hard to blame him.
-
So ... I may have overestimated the return going back to the Mariners a bit. It doesn't hurt. In fact, it's barely a scratch.
-
Or Adam Hill ... another college arm, but without the big upside of Small or Rasmussen. If I'm a Mariners fan, I'm disappointed in the return ... although the comp pick is nice.
-
Ha! Called the comp pick the Brewers picked up yesterday getting dealt. Not even 24 hours! Stearns is anti comp pick!
-
Most of the time teams don't use their backup catcher in a pinch hitting role to protect themselves against injury to the guy starting. Pina didn't have a ton of pinch hit opportunities last year. This changes if they carry 3 catchers with the 26-man roster.
-
It isn't meaningless, it the only sample size, and all I said was I was disappointed it wasn't more promising. PH/Sub numbers can be fluky year to year, but unfortunately to this point Narvaez has only show to be poor at it. It's a good thing he's likely to be the primary catcher then.
-
Turang might be a bit of an overpay. Maybe Small. But that's probably about it.
-
I'm sort of waiting for someone to show up and say something like, "Who is this Narvaez guy? I've never heard of him! Shoulda traded for Buster Posey!"
-
Wouldn't wild pitches be more on the pitcher than the catcher, though? Seattle's pitching in 2019 was a mix of veteran underperformance and inconsistent youngsters.
-
I was thinking Zack Brown and Phil Bickford, thus explaining why they were not protected. Nope. It isn't going to be for guys who are Rule 5 eligible. Because they could still be picked next week, and Seattle would get nothing. If one of those guys is included, it's going to be as a "Player to be Named Later"
