DaSpark

Let's be thankful we are not the Rockies. Imagine this.. Three way tie between dodgers, rockies, and cards. Rockies lost the head-to-head against both the cards and dodgers. Here is a crazy senario that could happen to them: Sunday: Final game of season at nats Monday: Divisional tie-breaker at Dodgers Tuesday: If they lose Monday WC tie-breaker at Cards Wednesday: If they win Tuesday, WC game at either Cubs or Brewers Thursday or Friday: If they win Wednesday, Game 1 of NLDS at either Cubs or Brewers Most likely the NLDS game 1 for them would be Friday, but still they could play in 4 cities in 4 days and 5 cities in 5 or 6 days. In the above senario all games would be on the road. They would not return home until game 3 of the NLDS which would likely be October 8th.

If the games came down to a coin flip the odds after today are: 25% we are tied 25% we are 2 games back 50% we remain 1 game back Brewers can't help what the Cubs do at this point, so we'll see how their game ends and then either way the Brewers must take care of what they can control.

Cubs are gonna win which makes tonight's game almost a must win if the Brewers want to win the division. Cubs now have 2 games left, Brewers 3 Cubs go 0-2 : Brewers need 2 to tie, 3 to win Cubs go 1-1 : Brewers need 3 to tie Cubs go 2-0 : Cubs win division If the Brewers lose tonight they will have to win out, including game 163 and the Cubs will have to lose out. Must win tonight in my book.

Here's where we stand by the way. Both teams have 3 games left Cubs go 0-3 : Brewers need 1 to tie, 2 to win Cubs go 1-2 : Brewers need 2 to tie, 3 to win Cubs go 2-1 : Brewers need 3 to tie Cubs go 3-0 : Cubs win division

Yea, good point. If the Cubs/Brewers have to play a game 163 it puts the loser at a big disadvantage in the WC game. 2nd spot will get to rest their guys.

Yea they started doing that to avoid "leaders in the clubhouse" I think . Makes sense. Makes every game important instead of a later game being useless! Yea, I like it that way. Makes the final day very exciting for teams/fans that are in the hunt come the final day. You know that at the same time both your game and others being played at the same time matter. It can be very nerve wrecking though for those that haven't at least secured getting a WC spot. Cubs up 3-0 early in their game. If they do pull off a win then the Brewers really need to win tonight, otherwise the best they can do is force game 163.

2/3 is a must against the Cards imo. Sweeping them would of course be ideal, but that is never an easy task.

Cubs and Brewers both get easy wins, which ultimately gets the Cubs one game closer to clinching. Cubs magic number is now 5. Cubs now have 7 remaining and Brewers 6. New line of possibilities: Cubs go 0-7 : Brewers need to go 2-4 to tie, 3-3 to win Cubs go 1-6 : Brewers need to go 3-3 to tie, 4-2 to win Cubs go 2-5 : Brewers need to go 4-2 to tie, 5-1 to win Cubs go 3-4 : Brewers need to go 5-1 to tie, 6-0 to win Cubs go 4-3 : Brewers need to go 6-0 to tie Cubs go 5-2 : Brewers are eliminated regardless Again, likely possibilities highlighted. As you can see, not gaining ground makes things that much more difficult each day. Brewers will likely need to win at least 4 of the remaining 6 to have a chance at a tie and go 5-1 or 6-0 to have any shot at winning division outright.

Division still not out of reach, but yesterday was a punch in the gut. As of now 2.5 back with 8 to go for the Cubs and 7 to go for the Brewers. Cubs magic number is at 6. They are likely to win at least 3-4 of their final 8. This means the Brewers likely can only lose 1 or 2 more games to outright win the division. New Line of possibilities: Cubs go 0-8 : Brewers need to go 2-5 to tie, 3-4 to win Cubs go 1-7 : Brewers need to go 3-4 to tie, 4-3 to win Cubs go 2-6 : Brewers need to go 4-3 to tie, 5-2 to win Cubs go 3-5 : Brewers need to go 5-2 to tie, 6-1 to win Cubs go 4-4 : Brewers need to go 6-1 to tie, 7-0 to win Cubs go 5-3 : Brewers need to go 7-0 to tie Cubs go 6-2 : Brewers are eliminated regardless I bolded the most likely outcomes in my opinion. I believe the brewers are going to have to finish 5-2 to have any chance at a tie and win 6 or 7 to win the division. One thing is for sure, the Brewers need to either hold or gain ground every day unless they manage to get a lead in the division. Any days that results in any games lost is probably the nail in the coffin. If the race is still on come Thursday that will be one of the biggest days for the Brewers chances. That is the day the Cubs play the pirates at Wrigley while the Brewers are idle. Cubs will probably have to lose that game to really give the Brewers a shot. As someone else stated above, the Brewers at the very least need to keep the pressure on when the Cubs start their series against the Cards. That series begins friday for them. Not only would that help the Brewers get the first WC spot, but it would also not allow the Cubs to set their rotation for the NLDS, which is where the Brewers would face them in the event they win the WC game. So it is a double bonus for the Brewers to still be in it by Friday even if they fail to catch the Cubs.

Well, things just got much more difficult in the division.

You are correct. If game 163 is needed it will be at Wrigley because they won the season head-to-head match-ups and there are no games remaining between us. So Wrigley it is. I think the only real chance at a tie or the Brewers winning the division though is if the Cubs play sub .500 ball in their final 12. Below just a simple spread on what has to happen depending on how many wins the Cubs get in their final 12. You can see things start to get extremely tough if they win more than 6 games. If they go .500 and win 6 it's doable, but the Brewers have to continue to play excellent ball. Anything under .500 for the Cubs starts to make things very doable for the Brewers, even if they blow a few games. If the Cubs win 3 then .... never mind, they aren't going to win less than 4 games. If the Cubs win 4 then the Brewers have to go 6-5 just to tie and 7-4 to win. If the Cubs win 5 then the Brewers have to go 7-4 just to tie and 8-3 to win. If the Cubs win 6 then the Brewers have to go 8-3 just to tie and 9-2 to win. If the Cubs win 7 then the Brewers have to go 9-2 just to tie and 10-1 to win. If the Cubs win 8 then the Brewers have to go 10-1 just to tie and 11-0 to win. If the Cubs win 9 then the Brewers have to go 11-0 just to tie.

Cubs are starting the game over (brand new game). This almost surely means Lester will face the brewers now.

Eh, the way I see it is the Cubs, on paper, should have lost last night being a Strasburg start. So even if they do lose a game due to a weak bullpen it just evens out. Also, I don't think they are really being asked to extend themselves that much. Most of those guys only threw a handful of pitches. Chavez, Cishek, and Wilson didn't even throw 1 full inning. Strop only threw 1 total. Chavez: 14 pitches Cishek: 6 pitches Wilson: 6 pitches Strop: 20 pitches. I'm sorry, but 6-20 pitches is not going to wear out anyone. It's when you have to ask your relievers to go multiple innings that you start having problems. Facing 1 or 2 batters will not even affect the pitcher come the next day. At most,maybe Strop is unavailable tonight for them. Cishek, Wilson and Strop all pitched Wednesday and Thursday. IMO it doesn't matter if they pitched the last 5 days. 6-15 pitches a game is not going to affect you the next day, no matter how many days you have thrown prior. These guys throw practice pitches every day anyway even if they never get up in the bullpen. 6 more makes no difference.

Brewers will get a wildcard spot imo unless absolute disaster strikes. However, Brewers are not winning the division without a miracle. That miracle must include sweeping the Cubs at Wrigley (a miracle in itself). We have 21 games left and need to 4 more wins than the Cubs from here on out to tie. Let's say the Cubs only go .500 and finish 11-11 in their last 22. Now we must win 15 of our final 21 games just to tie. You can see, without a Cubs collapse, it's a huge road to climb. Most likely the Cubs win at least 13-14 of their final 22. If you assume 13 then the Brewers must win 17 out of 21 to tie and 18 out of 21 to win the division. So in my eyes, the brewers can only afford to lose 3-4 more games this year to have a shot at the division. If the Cubs win any more than 13 or 14 then the Brewers practically have to go 21-0, and that might not even be enough. Now, of course, if the Cubs go under .500 in their final 22 things start to look much better. However, the major problem with that hope is they have 6 games combined against the Reds and White Sox. They will likely win both of those series. Those wins will even out any possible sweeps they might face on the road to .500. By the time the Cubs get to the pirates they will likely be eliminated and the Cubs will probably roll through them. Dbacks are also in collapse mode it seems and should be another easy series for the Cubs. Then you have the Cards which may play the Cubs tough or laid back. If the Cards are secure in a second wild card spot with no hopes of getting the first wildcard spot, they will go easy on the Cubs to save their best pitches for the Wildcard game and any games thereafter. If the Brewers are still threatening the division at that point the Cubs will throw all they have at the Cards and likely sweep or at minimum win 2/3. Reality though is we may not even be discussing the division by the time we go to Wrigley. Nats are playing bad right now and if the Cubs sweep them and the brewers lose a game or two in the meantime, it's over.

Eh, the way I see it is the Cubs, on paper, should have lost last night being a Strasburg start. So even if they do lose a game due to a weak bullpen it just evens out. Also, I don't think they are really being asked to extend themselves that much. Most of those guys only threw a handful of pitches. Chavez, Cishek, and Wilson didn't even throw 1 full inning. Strop only threw 1 total. Chavez: 14 pitches Cishek: 6 pitches Wilson: 6 pitches Strop: 20 pitches. I'm sorry, but 6-20 pitches is not going to wear out anyone. It's when you have to ask your relievers to go multiple innings that you start having problems. Facing 1 or 2 batters will not even affect the pitcher come the next day. At most,maybe Strop is unavailable tonight for them.

The Cubs play in a city that has literally over 6x the times the population of Milwaukee and is only 90 minutes away (less for people on the far north side). This is not embarrassing it's geography. It’s a little embrrassing that out fan base prefers to sell out instead of go to the game. I understand it and I don’t blame people, but pretty embarrassing. I don't think you can blame brewer fans completely. I'd bet a large majority of the cubs fans at the game today have had tickets since march to this game. As said before, their fan base is larger so more of their fans are likely to get tickets claimed before brewers fans.

But he would have been out with a good throw and would not have been at 3rd to score. Regardless, risky decision to send baez there this early and they got lucky.

The Cubs play in a city that has literally over 6x the times the population of Milwaukee and is only 90 minutes away (less for people on the far north side). This is not embarrassing it's geography. Yea, they literally refer to us as Wrigley north when playing us.

And here we are about to get blown out by the reds....

Problem I see though is now they will have Murphy and Bryant to finish the season. Something they didn't have the last month (minus the last week for Murphy). I honestly don't see them having a rough time in those games.

Very unlikely the Cubs play under .500 in the final month. Of course it is possible, but just not likely. The Cubs appear to be hitting their stride right now more than anything. Tonight might actually be a game to pay attention to with the Cubs. They are facing degrom and if they have their way with him then you know the Cubs are not going to falter. The 6 head to head match-ups is truly the big shot the brewers have. However, I have a feeling those games will be split or maybe the Brewers get 4 at the most. Sweeping them will be next to impossible.

I don't know. 6 games against the Cubs and 3 against the Cards. That's almost a 3rd of the schedule right there. Pirates, Nats, and Giants are probably all out of it but at the same time are not cake walks. Reds and Tigers (9 games) are the ones the Brewers really need to take advantage of. As in, winning like 7 of them. 9 out of the final 30 are going to be tough games against contenders 11 out of the final 30 will be games the brewers really need to shine in against average teams. 9 of out of the final 30 are games against sub-par teams that the Brewers either take advantage of or make vacation plans for October.

I agree, the Cubs are going to be next to impossible for the Brewers to catch. Murphy has provided the much needed spark their offense needed in the last week. Then you factor in that Bryant is about to return. Cubs have 32 games left and about best case for the brewers is they go .500 and win only 16. That puts them at 93 wins. Brewers have 30 games left and would have to win 20 just to tie in this scenario. However, lets be realistic because the Cubs are not a .500 team and they are red hot right now. I honestly don't see the Cubs winning any less than 19 of their final 32. That puts the Cubs at 96 wins. The brewers would have to win 23 just to tie, which means only losing 7 more games this season. That's .766 ball the Brewers have to play in the final month to even have a shot at the division. The only real shot the Brewers have to catch the Cubs is winning all 6 against the Cubs. This brings me to my main point, it's sadly time to start cheering on the Cubs. 3 games against the phillies - Cubs winning helps the Brewers WC chances 4 games against the nats - Again, Cubs winning this series may eliminate the nats from being any sort of threat. 3 games against the Dbacks - Dbacks may be a team the Brewers fight for a wc spot against 3 games against the cards - By this time every Brewer fan will be wearing cubbie blue for a few days. And this has to make you nervous because the Cubs will have the division clinched before this series starts and will be preparing for the playoffs. Lester will not pitch in this series. Not saying the Cubs will go easy on them, but the Cards will not get the full strength of the cubs. So out of the Cubs final 32 games, 13 of them, almost half, are games the cubs winning helps the brewers chances of making the playoffs.

I don't watch hockey or soccer, but in football (real football, aka NFL) it gets really crazy there because even if you factor out the possibility of tie games, you can have the same record but be technically ahead due to tie breaking rules for the standings. Honestly, I think it takes a team of legal experts to determine NFL standings at the end of some seasons.

Well, you typed a whole lot of words but as the old adage goes, if you're explaining you're losing. You're hypothetical arguments where teams are playing unequal amounts of games crumble when you consider that each team is going to play 162 games. There is no scenario in which the Brewers make up only the three games you claim they are behind and finish ahead of the Cubs. The standings show them three games behind right now only because they have played a different number of games and the season is incomplete. If you want to say they are three games out, fine, but as you yourself said, the only way the Brewers catch the Cubs is if the Cubs lose five more games than the Crew by the end of the year. I do say they are 3 games out (because they are). Here's my reference: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp