DaSpark

Yea, however, the 3 games specifically come from the difference in the magic numbers. It's purely mathematical. Yes the 3 games come from the average of the difference of win and loss column , aka magic number... all math all the time ! But never predictable! (Unless it’s the Brewers fading in a second half lol) Yep. And I pointed out in depth on page 8 of this thread why the math for the other argument simply doesn't work.

Yea, however, the 3 games specifically come from the difference in the magic numbers. It's purely mathematical.

I'd say this is truly all about what your definition is. Of course, in MLB's case it is clearly 8. The difference with this is you can define either one how you like and it will still work out mathematically throughout the season. You can pick your definition and stick with it throughout with no exceptions. However, in the case of the other argument about only the loss column mattering is mathematically flawed throughout the course of the season. At some point you have to change what you factor in or admit that a team with more wins but the same number of losses is no better off than the other team. With that argument it only can truly work if you only apply it to the final results of the season. I'm also glad things have stayed civil. The other side is just putting so much weight on losses that they even ignore the Cubs current 1 game advantage in the win column. With their argument that win for the Cubs must be in some sort of "pending" column and currently has no weight either way in the standings. But if they do factor it in, then all of a sudden their argument is toast because now they are giving weight to both columns. I will say this, if the Brewers and Cubs are neck and neck at the end of the season and lets say in final days the records are: Brewers: 90-72 Cubs: 88-72 These same Brewer fans will feel more confident of a division victory than if the record is Brewers: 88-72 Cubs 88-72 Why? Because the win column does matter, the odds are much greater that the Brewers will take the division at that point, regardless of the tie in the loss column. They will clearly be saying the advantage is ours. The Cubs must win their final 2 games while we wait and even then must beat us in a tie breaker. You wont see a single Brewer fan on either side of the argument today claiming at that point that the Brewers are not up in the division and hold the advantage. They will be factoring in the win column in their confidence level, and rightfully so, because the win column matters. MLB standings and games back is ultimately all rooted in the magic number like I pointed out in the last post. When you understand that you understand why the Cubs are currently only 3 games up/closer to the playoffs. ----------------------- To throw an even bigger wrench into the fire: You can actually have a lower winning percentage but be in first place. Most people believe that the a higher winning percentage is always key. However, take these standings: Cubs 22-16 || Winning Percentage: .579 Brewers 18-13 || Winning Percentage: .581 Cubs are 0.5 games up in the above standings. It's all because of the race to that magical number 0. Everyone starts at 163 and the first to reach 0 is the winner. Cubs would be down to 128 in that race, while the Brewers would only be at 129. The Cubs have 3 more losses but ultimately hold the advantage at that point in the season. Magic number trumps all, including the win column, loss column, and even winning percentage. Of course, the magic number is made up of both columns, as each matter.

Okay, I understand the logic some are presenting here by saying the Brewers are 5 games back. Yes, the Cubs have to lose at least 5 more times this year for the Brewers to even have a chance to tie. That is correct. However, and there is really no reason to debate this because the MLB standings page is proof enough, the Brewers are only 3 games back. The MATH proves that the Cubs are only 3 games up. The magic number to win the division for the Cubs is currently 41 The magic number to win the division for the Brewers is currently 47 magic number is how far you are from winning whatever you are after (division or wildcard in MLB's case). Of course, we are only focusing on the magic numbers for the division here. Oh, and yes, even the Brewers technically have a magic number, even though they are not in first. Each game played by either team will either 1) With a win, lower your magic number by 1 (a good thing) 2) With a loss, lower the magic number of everyone in the division by 1 For this reason each game can swing things by 2 points. You're either gaining one or losing one. Difference between -1 and 1 is 2. Okay, now that we understand that the magic number for the Cubs is 41 and the magic number for the Brewers is 47, and understanding that each game has a swing of 2 points we can prove how many games back (or rather, how farther they are from clinching the division) the Brewers are. To do this we take the difference between the two numbers and divide the result by 2 (for reason stated above). The difference between 41 and 47 is 6. 6 divided by 2 is equal to 3. The Cubs are 3 games closer to the playoffs than the Brewers. Thus, the Brewers are 3 games back. Now, before someone says this is not the easy way to figure this out, I know. Explaining it this way more clearly shows why the Brewers are 3 games back and what the math is actually determining. Which is, how many games closer to the playoffs/clinching are you. Now, again, I understand the point some are making, and yes, the Cubs do have to lose at least 5 more games from here on out for the Brewers to catch them. However, that doesn't put the Cubs 5 games closer to their clincher which means the Cubs CAN'T be 5 games up. Math proves it. --------------------------------------------- Oh, and here might be the true kicker of the logic some are stating here claiming the Brewers are 5 games back. Lets imagine the Brewers next 5 games are in Florida and the Cubs next 5 games are in Chicago. Florida is hit with a major hurricane and all 5 games are rained out. However, the Cubs go on a 5 game losing streak. The records are now Cubs 68-54 Brewers 67-54 You said the Brewers were 5 games back because of the loss column. But now those 5 games are made up and we have a tie in the loss column. The Cubs, however, still have 1 more win. So what now? Are the Brewers tied with the Cubs (so you saying the Cubs don't have an advantage here)? Are the Brewers still 1 game back? Are the brewers a half game back (if you admit this then you can no longer count each loss difference as a whole game either). Your logic completely falls apart. You either need to make up a new rule for determining these new standings, or admit that your current stance that the Brewers are 5 games back is completely flawed. Or maybe imagine only 4 out of the 5 games were rained out and the brewers won that game. We are now fully tied at 68-54. However, it took 6 games (5 cubs losses and one brewers win) to reach this tie. Did the Brewers win somehow not affect the standings at all? You would have to accept this fact if you claimed above that the Cubs/Brewers were tied with the Cubs having 1 more win, because they are still tied even with the Brewers winning a game. I guess this win doesn't matter because even if the game was played or not, still tied. Of course, this is just silly. So really, for the logic to hold true throughout the swing of things in the season you would have to give weight to the win column. However, once you start giving weight to the win column your argument that only the loss column matters is gone. Once you lose that argument, the Brewers can't be 5, or even 6 games back. They are 3. Using logic such as only the loss column matters doesn't work throughout the season. At some point, you have to give weight to the win column. Or is a team that is 90-72 no better off than a team that is 80-72 (due to excessive rain-outs)? ---------------------- So there you have it. The mathematical reason the Cubs are only 3 games up and why the "5 games back" argument is 100% flawed. And if you still don't believe me then I'll end it with this... MLB agrees with me: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/

You can't subtract from the W column either. So, doesn't it matter as well? Yes it does. That's why the standings are calculated using both the wins and losses of respective teams. Yes, the Cubs have 5 less losses, but they also have to play 4 more games than the brewers from here on out. On average you can expect the Cubs to lose at least 1 of those, if not two. Of course, they could win them all, but that still doesn't matter. Anyway, if your logic was correct (it isn't) I assure you that MLB would show the Brewers 5 games back on their standings page. Back to reality though, right now the biggest thing that matters is these two games coming up against the Cubs. Brewers will be either 1,3, or 5 out after this series. In my opinion this could either make the race tight to the end or make it very hard for the Brewers to realistically keep up with the Cubs.

I just don't share the optimism for this year in regards to the division. I also don't think the Cubs are in a small window of success. I see them probably winning the division without doubt for at least 5 or more years. Then again, we'll see.

Sure, key injuries here or there can be a huge blow to any team. However, it's not a fun place to be to have to almost hope your opposition has injuries so you even stand a chance. Plus, odds are the Cubs would win the division even if they lost a starter for a good portion of the year. Brewers have a good shot at the wildcard race again. Unless the Cubs have a below average first half again, like last year, the division will not be competitive. PS.... honestly the cubs only added Yu to help out in their chances of advancing in the playoff. They did not sign him in hopes of actually making the playoffs which were already a guarantee.

After watching this atrocity over the last few years, I'm convinced they do nothing more than flip a coin to decide the outcome in New York. It doesn't have to be that way either, the NFL nearly always gets it right on replay. They do a great job. That's my point though. The NFL does such a great job because they have cameras with the resolution (4K) to zoom in and see exactly what happened in crystal clear (non-pixelated) shots. Most MLB instant replays could also be just as decisive and get the call correct if they had 4K shots to review. With 4K even if the play was a matter of a hundredth of a centimeter or 1/100th of a second you can tell and get the call correct with near 100% accuracy.

I don't think the Cubs will ease up on the Cards if they were to win the first two and have everything clinched up.

Honestly, I say just do away with instant replay. Half of the calls they make on the replay are wrong anyway. However, if you want to keep it then the only good solution is to install 4K cameras at all ballparks. Ever wonder why you get crystal clear freeze shots in the NFL but not MLB? It's because the NFL utilizes 4K cameras in all the parks. You can zoom in so far on a 4K camera where you can count the whiskers on the players and still not have pixelization. If MLB did the same you would see an instant increase in correct replay calls.

lol good call. Of course this was not the Brewers real plan late in the game. However, no doubt this is true despite how small the advantage really is. Cubs have won the division, simple fact. Only way the Brewers likely win the wildcard is for the Cubs to absolutely win the division with a series win over the Cards. Fact of the matter is we now need to be rooting for the Cubs to sweep the cards (or at least win the series), which in turn would eliminate the Brewers from the division. However, this would help the Brewers make it really a two team race against the Rockies for the 2nd wildcard. Dare I say, "Go Cubs"?

lol good call. Of course this was not the Brewers real plan late in the game. However, no doubt this is true despite how small the advantage really is.

First blown save for him all year. Now, extras..........

That would have put two guys in scoring position. Even with a pitcher you don't take that chance early in the game. You don't get the pitcher out and all of a sudden you give up a 5 spot.

Division is over. Time to salvage the wildcard.

Huge series here. Brewers could finish this series anywhere from half a game up in sole poss of first place to... mathematically eliminated from the NL central. That's a pretty extreme difference that these 4 games could make. Brewers really need to win 3 or more and absolutely can't afford to lose the series. (1st post btw, hello to all)