coolhandluke121

I think it's terrible that some fans think this way. Fans like that don't even deserve a good team. Stearns has done an absolutely incredible job to get them where they are today, but instead of appreciating it, some fans let the incredible success warp their expectations. If the brewers had won 75 games last year and 80 this year, with the farm system they've built and the low payrolls during that time, fans would appreciate the progress they've made. But they won 86 last year after being on pace for 90+ most of the year, and they'll probably win 85-90 again this year after being on pace for 95+, and instead of seeing how amazing it is that they've been this good, certain fans act like it's a given that they should be a 90+ win team at this point. It's absurd to make the front office a victim of their own remarkable success, and I think it's a plague on this message board. They have gaping holes in the lineup and rotation because they are just a few years removed from a tear-it-down rebuilding effort. You can't just plug those holes in 1 year. They spent 10 years decimating the farm system while the major league talent deteriorated to nothing. They had a terrible situation at both levels just 3 years ago at this time, with little hope for the future. And now fans cry because they can't sustain best-in-the-NL play all season instead of realizing how amazing it is that they played at the level at all. Be patient, make Walker/Swarzak type trades, develop Peralta, Burnes, Hiura, Arcia, and Nottingham, among others, and they'll be able to play like a top-3 team all year. In the meantime, being in the playoff picture was a bonus last year, and getting to the wild card game is a realistic goal this year given that the Cubs are all-in now and the Brewers are wisely setting up their best ball for the near future.

About time their luck changed. No shame in needing a few unearned runs to beat Kershaw. I think they bounce back. Last year I thought they were extremely lucky and overachieved, but this year I think they really are a clear top-5 team in the NL and probably top-3. They were a little lucky to have the best record in the NL, but they're sustainable as a 90-win team IMO. That's why I don't think this will play out the way it did last year. Didn't love all the cheers for Hader. I'm not gonna like all the boos in other parks either. I think just being quiet shows you appreciate the gravity of what he said and why it's such a big deal.

Yeah, that's just another thing where some inevitable regression to the mean and some injuries just happened to coincide with some minor changes in usage. Can't put so much blame on the personnel decisions. I do agree that the Brewers were using some progressive strategies and looked brilliant at the start of the year. I liked the bullpen usage, shuttle service, and defense. I agree that they should be more flexible with the "closer" role. But they have much bigger problems lately. It's been a perfect storm of a lot going wrong and they just have to weather it.

Uh, yeah. Maybe.

Good article. I do agree that they've gone away from the things that were working well. I don't fully agree that it was just dumb luck that they applied those strategies in the first place though. There's some regression involved, which does make their slump coincide with making different decisions but isn't fully a result of making different decisions. Seems the guy is pushing his favorite explanation/agenda over several other important factors. I mostly agree about Knebel. He's never had the command to be anointed the closer, even last year when he was an all-star. This is just inevitable regression. They should be using him on a match-up basis more. That said, there are many save opportunities where it would have been him even if they didn't care about the "closer" role, simply because the match-ups were favorable and other guys had been used already. He's been quite a bit worse than even the Knebel Regressionists expected, but you don't know that until it's too late so you can't blame them for using him in a lot of high leverage situations. Again, that's just hindsight; the real story is that he's been a disappointment and that Hader and Jeffress have come back to earth a little lately. Most of the pen has regressed lately, and that's not Knebel's fault. Jennings, Williams, Barnes, etc weren't gonna be terrific all year. I'd say now is about the right time to start weaning him off that closer role, but I respect Counsell for generally giving guys the right amount of leash. I think fans in general call for changes too impatiently, but Counsell is actually less stubborn than most managers when it comes to changing personnel in response to changes in production. You can't just make changes every time a guy slumps a little. In a way, talking so much about the closer situation instead of recognizing all the issues causing the slump just reinforces how much the closer role is magnified beyond it's true importance, which is what most of us are trying to dispel.

I'd be fine with Peralta as the headliner in a deal for Realmuto. I get this really up-and-down vibe from him, and I don't think it's just inexperience; I think it's his repertoire. He reminds me of K-Rod after he left the Angels. Not much velocity but lots of movement and changing speeds. Getting cute, dancing around the strike zone a lot, getting guys to chase, imploding when his command falters... it's not a formula for consistent success, even though he'll have some spectacular stretches. K-Rod was a reliever so a great stretch or bad stretch of ~40 innings determined his entire season, whereas I think Peralta ends up being a high 3's e.r.a. guy with some months under 2 and some months over 5. I don't think I'd trade Burnes or Hiura for Realmuto, but it depends on the other prospects obviously.

Always hated the stars and scrubs thing, going back to Braun/Fielder and Yuni/McGehee. It doesn't work. There's not enough guys on base for the top of the lineup to drive them in, and there's not enough guys who can drive in the 3/4 hitters when they're on base. Offense in baseball is like a chain, and you need to avoid weak links. That's why OBP is king, despite some lingering fixations with slugging. But all else being equal, I'm willing to bet it's better to have your team OBP distributed relatively evenly throughout the lineup, as opposed to having it skewed in favor of your 1-4 hitters. The good thing about this team, as opposed to 5-10 years ago, is that this isn't the finished project; they're building towards having stars and great depth. They're not there yet because they're only 1.5 years removed from an all-out rebuild, but I'm confident they will get there. I just don't expect them to have a good player for every roster spot yet.

The reason for the post is that all I care about is wins and I think the time off helps with that. They get the recognition anyway whether they participate or not. I think a few days without any travel or playing is good for players. I get that, and it does make some sense. This is a forum for Brewer fans, though. The majority of which feel that Jesus Aguilar deserves a spot on the All Star team. Throwing in a line about how Trea Turner deserves a spot over Aguilar is a pretty blatant attempt to poke the bear. I didn't actually say that but he's an excellent candidate. It's all about supply and demand. What Turner is doing at SS is every bit as special as what Aguilar is doing at 1b, just like Cain is so valuable. Unfortunately great value on defense and base-running is still not recognized as often as it should be. You can't go wrong with either one of them but they're neck and neck in value as far as I'm concerned. I'd be totally cool with Aguilar missing the cut and playing with a chip on his shoulder for a couple more months.

The reason for the post is that all I care about is wins and I think the time off helps with that. They get the recognition anyway whether they participate or not. I think a few days without any travel or playing is good for players.

Which weekend do you want them to take off? I misspoke obviously. It's not a weekend in baseball, although it is the only "weekend" many of them actually get in the regular season unless they're hurt. I think a few days with no activity is helpful for players and I'd be interested in seeing stats about performance in subsequent weeks. I have noticed that a lot of the players who just missed the game play better than the all stars but that's anecdotal.

Eh, 1b is loaded in the NL. Other guys have more WAR and pa's and much better defense and a longer track record. It's all relative. Aguilar can't play LF and Yelich is one of the best outfielders in the NL. That's why he's in and that's as it should be. Personally I'd rather everyone on the Brewers take the weekend off and get some rest, especially with all the games they've played lately. And I think Turner is a great candidate honestly.

That was my immediate reaction as well. When you look at guys like Miller and Saladino, or a guy like Sogard last year, sometimes it's a total fluke but sometimes you have to wonder if they didn't just have a great off-season of training or something like that. In other words, just cross your fingers and hope there's a reason it's happening and therefore it could last a few months. I still prefer Villar as well. Positive value on the basepaths despite the gaffes, very good range at 2b, getting the hang of the position, hits from both sides... what's not to like compared to giving up assets for a probably sideways move at best?

I'm encouraged by Chase being as effective as he has been. Thought last year was a fluke and we'd see balls flying out of the yard like it's 2016 again. I think Davies was affected by a nagging injury and still see him as an above average back of the rotation guy at worst. Guerra looks good. You wonder if he's going to implode again but there's no evidence he will. I'm comfortable with him in the rotation. Suter just keeps getting outs. His bat and glove add 1+ WAR to the position over the course of a season, which is not trivial. I think Chacin stays solid. The coaching here is known for keeping guys like him effective even when they have an inconsistent history. Peralta reminds me of K-Rod. Sometimes you worry that he can't throw a strike if his life depends on it, but guys still chase his bad pitches no matter how much film they have access to. The movement on his pitches is ridiculous and sometimes it hurts him as much as it hurts the hitters, but I have little doubt that he's going to continue to help the team. Woodruff is a disappointment, but he's got Nelson-type stuff. I think Burnes will be reasonably effective. So even if Davies doesn't come back strong and Suter moves to the pen, don't bother unless get an ace to pitch a wild card game or games 1/4/7 in a series. But then how much do you want to pay when Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, Anderson, Woodruff, and Davies could be an excellent rotation for years to come, with Guerra, Suter, and Chacin bridging any gaps?

Rolls off the tongue.

I live in NYC during the school year and have no cable. I watch some replays of games when I can and occasionally go to a bar with mlb tv, but facebook broadcasts are by far the best for my own selfish interests. And yet, I hate them. It's the principle. Total rip-off for people who are paying for cable. I think it's a disgrace. I would have no problem voting it down in a millisecond even if it meant I would miss even more games. I can't imagine how frustrating it is to pay for cable and have to watch that lagging, pausing crap. Or worse yet, not have/want facebook at all and miss a game or two before you figure out a workaround.

Don't buy high on Merrifield. Don't get into a bidding war over Syndergaard. I'm fine with trading some top prospects but I don't see either of those guys being the right target unless I'm completely wrong about how much the Mets will get for Syndergaard.

For sure.

Syndergaard pitched 183 innings at age 23 and what do you know, he's hurt 2 starts out of every 3 since then. I get the notion that it's not "chronic" injuries but it's not that simple. Over the course of many years, the body can change to handle constant stressors, but Syndergaard and Harvey didn't go through that process. Harvey had an injury that showed up in diagnostics and Syndergaard does not, but I wouldn't be surprised if an arthroscopic procedure showed a little more wear and tear than there should be. The other thing is that Syndergaard just strikes me as a "tight" pitcher with more muscle than necessary, at the expense of flexibility. He doesn't have the smooth, effortless mechanics of deGrom. He reminds me of Strassburg and I definitely think he will be remembered as another prodigy who looked like a sure-fire hall-of-famer but burned out fast and never lived up to his potential due to injuries.

That's better, but this isn't over. There's still the question of your punishment.

I'm reading the thread title again and it's nothing if not an invitation to argue about which Brewer is the most valuable. Cain Hader (I don't think analytics have caught up to the value of the way they've been able to leverage him) Aguilar Yelich Shaw Jeffress Guerra Suter Chacin Thames Villar (just because it's so hard to find a better 2b these days) Peralta Barnes Williams

Definitely. Thor strikes me as a bit of a maniac who thinks he can just be a bigger, tougher dude than hitters forever, with no regard for the consequences to his body. His minor injuries last year were supposedly a consequence of lifting weights too much in the off season and he has a more violent delivery than deGrom. I see some subtle red flags with throwing at people in the world series too. You have to pitch inside, but it just seems like he can be guided by impulse. Thor reminds me of Strassburg, but deGrom reminds me a little of Maddux with his poise.

That ends any chance at a reasonable debate. Cain's defense matters so much more than you're giving him credit for. You can just say "I don't care" but that's as good as saying you don't care who actually deserves to be MVP. There's a handful of 1B's who hit like Aguilar over their first 250 PA's nearly every season it seems. Cain is top 5 in OBP and steals (>80% success rate) with gold glove defense in CF. That's absurdly valuable and rare. There's more to the game than just slugging.

I'm only arguing because I think it's unfair to Cain to suggest that anyone else should be the team MVP. He's literally been the most valuable position player in the NL all season long, and I'm not sure it's even close.

I guess at least you're openly admitting that it's only about hitting for you. The next post is all about offense too, in a slugger-friendly home park no less. With context, Aguilar's OPS doesn't make up for his defense compared to other 1B's like Belt, Votto, Goldschmidt, or Freeman, let alone a gold glove CF with a better OBP and some of the best base-running value in all of baseball. The "triple crown" stats are so outdated when it comes to evaluating player value.

Please tell me you're talking about Cain, who has been the most valuable player in the NL pretty much since opening day. Aguilar doesn't even crack the top 5 at his own position.