McRibMcLove

Its really hard to see from that data. If you look at the Ave fWar/pitcher for various ages (estimates from graph) you get: All Pitchers 26 = 1600/1080 = 1.48 All pitchers 30 = 900/700 = 1.29 All pitchers 35 = 380/300 = 1.26 20+G Pitchers 26 = 790/305 = 2.59 20+G Pitchers 30 = 500/205 = 2.44 20+G Pitchers 35 = 200/75 = 2.67 So there's clearly an age related decline overall, but it looks like there's still good value in a 30 YO who can start 20+G compared to a 26YO who can start 20+ games. The uptick at 35YO starting 20+ games is likely a bias of the "elite" starters at the end of their career. While this isn't really an applicable analysis it does indicate that the dropoff is very pitcher specific (2.67 fWar exceeds the value Lynn or Cobb bring to the table). Where I think Archer is different is that he is almost guaranteed to be worth his contract based on even bad projections of his future production (because he is signed to the pitchers version of the Yellich contract). The issue is will he be worth the prospects we give up and that's a lot harder to judge. I want the Brewers to walk away from a Santana/Phillips/Burns/Peralta type of deal unless it's for Archer/Bauer and that deal I might do.

I believe there was some analysis years ago that the performance peak wasn't changing, but the curve as to how players dropped off relative to there peak was changing. While years ago there was a much more dramatic dropoff from peak, more recently (whether a result of widespread PEDs or widespread changes to nutrition/workout or both) that the dropoff was less so players still had significant value through mid-30s in many cases.

I agree. I think the brewers need to do the opposite of the Yellich Trade/Cain FA signing and sign a FA pitcher first then worry about a trade. If we can land either Darvish or Arrieta I think there's less need for Archer if the Rays won't reduce their demands. Also, as the FA logjam breaks up the teams looking for SP will drop and the demand for Archer will drop (if there is other demand besides the brewers). As Rays increased their asking price after we obtained 2 OF, they should expect we will pay less as we already added a FA arm without giving up any prospects.

Looking at Arrieta's numbers the last 2 years compared to 2014-2015 and one issue I noticed is that he was very similar pitcher 1, 2 and 3 times through the lineup during his elite years while the last 2 he has been extremely good 1 and 2 times through the lineup and bad the 3rd time through the lineup. That may be a function of his drop in velocity or it could be that he's older and tires earlier than he did before. He may need to change his approach to pitching when he approaches the third time through the lineup to remain elite. I don't think its just a velocity issue as his BB/9 and K-BB/9 go up and down dramatically 3rd time through the lineup which may indicate fatigue leading to issues with pitch location/command. I still think he has a lot of upside compared to Cobb/Lynn. As someone else said it's really elite 2 SP (Darvish/Arrieta) not 4 SP (Cobb/Lynn).

Absolutely wrong. The source of all wealth is the consumer. Without the consumer there is no professional baseball. Do you think owners would ever give players a single dime without the knowledge they have consumers to buy the product? Try starting a business without any idea if anyone will buy your product. And as a consumer I am getting tired of getting the shaft from both the millionaires and the billionaires... I’m insulted every time an agent complains about their pampered clients... who agreed to the current CBA? And I don’t want the owners to share more of the wealth with the players, I want them to give me, the consumer, a discount because my financial state takes a hit every time I buy tickets to a game.

agreed. It may take signing a FA pitcher first to have more leverage that we can walk away from the Rays unless they take less. Until Darvish decides (and I have little hope he will pick Milwaukee) the other free agents will wait it out.

I like the idea of starting Hader until Nelson is back then moving him to the bullpen. It keeps his innings up, gives him some time to adjust to MLB and keeps him in a valuable role this year, then plan on giving him a shot to land a full time SP position in 2019.

Yes, especially with all the championship banners flying in miller park Seriously, he's maximized profits of his small market team brilliantly. I'm not complaining about him, but he's only done steps 1 and 2 of many to get us a championship. So I'm not going to anoint him as a Brewers Baseball god just yet. The thing that I want to point out to the above comment, is that baseball is slowly changing for the better for the Brewers. In 10-15 years, local TV money will be done. Disney spent a huge amount of money to acquire MLB digital rights because mlb.com will be the major revenue stream in 10-15 year and there will be limited revenues to none from local TV contracts at that time. That automatically levels part of the field. Where things will still be "small market" for the Brewers are in the revenues from attendance, while we won't be able to compete with some of the large markets, the one thing Brewers fans have shown is that they will support their team at the turnstile and that will allow the Brewers to compete with many of the mid-market teams and out-compete many of the small market teams. I hope that means that while we still emphasize building through the farm, we will have a chance to sign a Yu Darvish when the opportunity arises. Unfortunately, that may not be this year, but I have lived through the growing pains of the small market brewers and I really am excited that we will soon be entering a new day when competition approaches a much more level playing field. The fact we are even discussing it today is already encouraging. Cain, Yellich, and a SP for Santana and this is close to a perfect offseason, IMHO.

Albers had very similar years in 2015 and 2017 looking at his numbers at bbref so it would be interesting to know if his arm position was different in 2015 compared to 2016. What was clear from the nice article at fangraphs was a clear difference in pitch location in 2017 that was distinct from the 2014-2016 period. It appears the Brewers do look at evidence for the underlying cause of a "breakout" year - it sure makes me more comfortable when there's a tangible change in a pitcher (stretch position, hand position, etc.) or batter (position in box, stance, hand placement, etc) that correlates with dramatic improvements versus things are the same but a statistical variation hits one year. The nice thing about Albers numbers are even a significant change in BABIP (say .250-265) still leaves him with decent numbers.

I don't recall the difference between a K and any out in "cost", but there is a slight difference that doesn't necessarily matter in the short run, but overall it can. The brewers lead the majors with 1571 Ks and the Astros were champions with 1087. That's a difference of 484 times the "cost" of a K... Which could easily be a couple of wins. Not going to the extremes, but to the median for MLB in 2017 which was around 1335 Ks the brewers were 236 higher which could have been the difference between making the WC and losing by 1 game. I found this analysis of correlation between metrics and winning teams at Baseball America. Maybe this is part of the evidence leading to the Brewers moving away from high K players....

Actually the easy thing to suggest is that we offer a ridiculous salary to get Darvish... We have a budget that needs to be kept. The Cubs don't have a cap like the dodgers and have a weaker rotation now than last year which leaves them with minimal room to maneuver when someone goes down. So they are likely to go up up up until it hurts. You just need to know where your hurt is compared to their hurt...

I am 99% certain that plan B for Stearns is a FA pitcher signing if he can't get value for Santana, keep Santana until someone goes down with an injury then no issue with too many OF. If everyone is healthy for an extended period then we celebrate being lucky and work on splits to keep everyone fresh until DH days. If Santana puts up another good year his stock will only rise.

Why not drive up the price for the Cubs? Go up another $5M per season and play a game of chicken with the cubs. Ultimately they need him more than money they have and we can keep bidding, but they will raise. Heck offer him $32M per year for 4 years with a vesting 5th year based on performance. I bet the cubs would just stick up there paddle and yell "33M per year for 5 years"...

Maybe the Brewers could have bought them new bats.

Let's not go all gollum on the presciospects, being on the winning end of quality over quantity is a good thing...

I guess if we take it literally then it means that the falcons are either minting coins or printing currency..... I thought the dept of the treasury was the only institution allowed to "make money".

Yuni B. Sure, his salary of $900k was small in comparison to Gagne, but having to watch him play (to the tune of a -2ish WAR in 2013) was worse torture than waterboarding. I can give you 15,755,000 reasons whats wrong with baseball and they all lead back to Batter Nine You Sucky.....