McRibMcLove

*Post Edited, please do not leave comments like that and stick to baseball*

I hope this hasn't been posted already, but here's a good read on Cobb from Fangraphs a couple weeks back. That was posted 15+ pages ago, but understandable you missed it... with all the other "news" packed in between

Braun for Bellinger and Seager makes the most sense to ME, but I doubt the dodgers would entertain that, just as they aren't inclined to take on more salary to dump their salary and have the pleasure of adding in prospects. Now if you propose to them Braun for Kemp and 2 prospects you are releasing anyways, you might get the dodgers attention. Giving away Braun to save $16M is not likely going to benefit the Brewers in the short term and depending on the long-term maybe not either. If the aim is to jettison Braun at any cost, then wait until the August waiver period where most players are put on revocable waivers and pray some playoff contender really needs Brauns bat and claims him so you can waive goodbye.

The rebuild is never over for a small market team that must build through the draft and player development. The next star is always developing on the farm and when the previous stars get too expensive/past their prime/aren't cost effective then you slot the rookie in. The Brewers got some major bumps last year (Nelson becoming an ace, Anderson become a near ace, Shaw & Santana having "breakout" year and ThamAguilar putting up great numbers at 1B.) Those developments shortened the timeline for the brewers to be competitive. As several posters have pointed out in other threads, the issue with missing the playoffs last year by ONE game was not the pitching, but the hitting. Stearns has already added two near studs to the offense while only taking some away performance (reduced playing time for some). I think the Brewers are close to being the same team as they were last year even with Nelson being out for 2-3 months due to the addition of Cain and Yelich and improvement in the other SP (signing Chacin and Woodruff/Suter instead of the Milone/Garza/etc crap from last year). We don't know if there will be regression from some of the surprises last year, and we don't know when Nelson will be back to ace quality, but we have an excellent chance of competing for the wildcard. I would love adding a Cobb to the rotation, but not at 4-5 years when we will have likely better options from the farm system by year 3 of his contract. Stearns looks for value in a transaction and if it's not there he moves on or looks for it in other ways. Having Cobb/FA SP in the rotation out of Spring Training is not going to dethrone the cubs. 2018 should be about getting into the playoffs and evaluating the talent we have. If talent becomes available during the season for the right price then Stearns has the flexibility to add pieces. The rebuild will continue and we will add pieces from the farm system or trade them for major league ready pieces as needed. I still think the farm system is still a year away from providing players who can step into support roles and become productive. Broxton and Phillips could both benefit from daily AB in AAA, but one or both could be a perfect fit for the OF if Stearns finds an excellent deal for Santana. Until those deals materialize I am sure Stearns is fine sitting pat waiting for opportunities to appear. What are the chances one or both of Brantley/Chisenhall go on the DL in the first 2 months? 50/50? I am absolutely sure one of the contenders will lose a corner OF in the first month and probably 2 in the first half of the year. Then comes Santana time.

Reported on mlb.com that Stroman is shut down with shoulder inflammation. No timetable for his appearance during spring training...

I didn’t like the Kemp for Braun rumors because there wasn’t a clear prospect coming back that would make that deal valuable (since kemp is basically no value). However, most of Braun’s value for the remainder of his contract is likely going to come this season as a full time player or in a platoon role. There’s no clear platoon partner in the OF, but a perfect platoon partner at 1B. The way this should play out is that Braun splits time with Thames at 1B and DH, Aguilar is either let go or goes down to Colorado Springs as a backup. Santana, Cain, Yelich take a vast majority of the OF ABs and there is no extra OF issue. I’m sure Stearns doesn’t see value yet in any proposals so we will hold onto Santana. I see Braun’s comments only as a good teammate who doesn’t want to say he’s taking over 1B from 2 players who combined were very good last year. I am sure Braun will spend a lot of time at 1B this spring/year and it will be due to management’s decision, not Braun’s.

you might want to check out this page and enter your zip code. Most Milwaukee area zips don't get FSN Wisconsin, just FSN North.... http://help.sling.com/articles/en_US/FAQ/How-do-Regional-Sports-Networks-on-Sling-TV-work edit: This may be the issue (from that page): "FOX Sports North is a full-time channel, whereas FOX Sports Wisconsin only has programming when there are multiple live sporting events on simultaneously."

Personally I like to minimize risk. Having both deGrom and Syndergaard is risky as they both can have down years (at least for Wins if thats one of your stats) if the Mets offense underperforms. I would pick one of the 2 and based on Syndergaard lighting it up during his first start in Spring Training he has a higher injury risk than deGrom. Just my 2c...

Gallardo and Miley both have arm issues - their arms suck...

When do arby contracts become guaranteed? This week (I have a vague recollection its so many weeks before opening day)? I wouldn't be surprised if there is collusion going on.... Agents are holding off signings until after teams are locked into all their arby contracts... Conspiracy Theory? sure, but its the only real FU that they can do to the owners right now by forcing them to spend money they might have saved by releasing a player instead of paying the arby amount...

If Gallardo is in the starting 5 come April its because all the other options had their arms fall off...

It depends on your approach. They've probably already noted on your account that you've called twice and asked for reductions and then didn't cancel. When I "play the game" I call up to cancel. When they ask why am I cancelling I just tell them I can't afford to pay the current rates. I almost always get an offer immediately from them for a reduced rate. Typically $20-30 depending on the package. I add $10 to there number and tell them that's how much I need to save to stay. The agent asks me to hold while they speak with a manager. Almost always they come back with a split of the difference - $25-35 off my bill. Then I say - ok. My brother calls up and asks for the best deal from customer service and they tell him he's getting it. I call up and tell them cancel my service and I get the deal.... Its the approach....

Teams will still be bad. Of course. If there was a required salary that teams had to be within 5% up or down, you would still have crappy teams. Some teams have a combination of bad luck, bad decisions, and poor decision making due to various reasons and that will lead to dramatically different outcomes even with the same spend. I am not advocating that somehow a floor will lead to parity, I am advocating a floor to at least try to achieve a minimum quality of product. I was not one asking Mark Attanasio to tank. I think Stearns is doing a great job. I'm happy with it. I do think that we now have an empty void of elite elite prospects to have a long window like the Cubs or Astros (the Cubs were able to supplement with higher payroll and the Astros likely will). I think the Elite prospect issue has been a problem for a few years even when the Brewers system was ranked highly the overall take was that it was driven by numbers of less than elite prospects. As you probably can guess, I wasn't a fan of the Corey Ray selection at the time and it basically was a blown opportunity to add that elite prospect (with a high pick). I still think we can find them farther down the draft, but wasting that pick is my only beef with the current rebuild. I do think we have some ability to compete through free agency, but a bad contract will hurt us far more than a large market team like the Astros and Cubs and the Brewers will likely have to overpay. You've followed up one condescending remark with another. Yep. Two wrongs don't make a right and I do apologize to all... I have been reading Brewerfan for a few years and only started posting recently and the thing that makes this forum great is intelligent discussion (that I am trying to contribute to and not pick fights or attack others), but the biggest issue here is the elitism that creeps up all the time. Especially when denouncing the artificial creation of the "casual fan" as some neanderthal dragging their knuckles to game after game, breathing through their mouths and demanding outrageous things like the product on the field match the price paid for the ticket. I've never met a casual fan. I've met plenty of fans who aren't as emotionally tied into their team and I've met many who have no idea what a WAR is (other than taking on a Cubs fan at Miller Park...) but are just as supportive of their team as anyone I've seen posting here. I guess I'm asking that maybe it's not appropriate to demean a fan whose supported his team to a huge amount simply because he's pissed off that the new management has completely botched several trades and personnel decisions in the short period of time they've been in charge. If Attanasio did what Jeter & co did in the first few months of his ownership, I bet a ton of people on Brewerfan.net would have gathered up pitchforks to storm the castle. Might be they got the best deals they could, but the approach was horrible, absolutely horrible and I am not going to second guess pissed off Marlins fans. Putting up with years of Jeff Loria gets plenty of latitude in my book.

I don't mean to nitpick your post as it was well thought out, but the casual fans like Marlin Man simply aren't going to grasp the rebuild. I think that's a pretty condescending remark. The guy has been through several rebuilds as a Marlins fan (and a World Series Win). He had 20 season tickets for the most expensive seats at the stadium for years and only reduced to 10 a short time ago. As the often crapped on "casual fan" he's pumped more money into his team than 100 "I'm smart and know how to build through sabermetrics" Fans who go to 10 games a year... Those casual fans who are consistently kicked around on this site as uneducated and stupid are the ones who pay for almost everything, because about 1% of the fan base understands advanced approaches to roster and team building and many of them can't pull their heads out of their internet connection to spend a dime on the team they support.

Why tank? The 2017 Astros, 2016 Cubs, and 2015 Royals (somewhat) and the 2008 Rays (almost) have some words for you. Correa, Kris Bryant, Bregman, Moustakas, etc. And the those 4 teams were the only ones drafting in the top ten over a 5 year period? I wonder if the other teams just passed. At #2 the Seatlle Mariners pick .... "pass". The somewhat of the Royals is that none of their picks from 2010 to 2013 (All top 10) had anything to do with their world series team in 2015. I simply believe it is a poor strategy to only approach team construction from 1 practice (look at the Packers under Thompson and how many years of a HOF QB were wasted in taking an almost fanatical approach to only building through the draft. Now look at the Super Bowl rings the New England patriots have because they took a balanced approach even though they drafted near the end of each round). In baseball, there are other teams who've had plenty of high draft positions and failed to turn them into success and there are plenty of teams drafting at the back end and have won multiple world series (Red Sox, Giants). The false assumption is that there's only 1 model to rebuild - tank for as long as your fan base will stomache. I think Sterns is of the mind that you acquire assets at a discount and keep adding them (through the draft, trade, FA, etc.) as long as the deal is beneficial. Would he like to have his 2016 Top 5 pick to do over again? right now, I would think yes, but so far he's done everything else almost perfectly without Tanking...

^^^^ +1

I agree with most of your post. I believe part of the problem with both franchises in FL is that they are taking the small market Athletics approach to building a team, but with the intention of making money over any other objective. I actually think the A's and Beane do everything they can to put the best team they can, given their budget, onto the field. Building a loyal fan base - even if its small. I think the Marlins are not focusing on putting the best team on the field, but making the most money with the lowest payroll, while selling the fans that they are building a team for the future. And the Marlins may believe that, but the leaked memo from the Marlins makes it clear that they are focusing on profit. Why Tank? Baseball has a ton of examples where elite players were not drafted in the top half of the first round. So drafting at the top isn't a prerequisite for building a winning team (the brewers drafting in the top ten for many years only really netted 2 playoff teams). So there is really not a great argument that you have to tank to maximize your ability to rebuild through the draft. Order is less relevant than being smart. So teams taking the tanking approach are going to field the same questions as the "marlin's man" (season ticket holder since 1993 with 20 tickets, then 10) when he said why should he renew for 2018 to watch "AAA" baseball. Putting together the cheapest team possible is going to hurt revenues when fans say enough is enough, I won't pay major league prices when you deliver a minor league product. Ultimately, as it's clear in attendance and revenues from the Marlins and Rays, fans will stay away until the team is competitive again and that only feeds the need to cut costs. There's a medium ground where teams can rebuild and still attempt to put together a competitive team (each year there are plenty of FA available for small salaries that are price effective) and as the bolded statement points out, there is no guarantee ownership will use profit from previous years to improve product on the field in the future. I firmly believe a payroll floor/minimum is needed to guarantee teams are delivering a quality product to their fans. The Marlins even claimed they couldn't reduce 2018 ticket prices because the previous ownership had already set the prices before the team was sold... Really? You have to be a superior level of stupid to think that one will fly with the fans. The owners (with the face of Derek Jeter) are trying to convince fans that they are building a winner for the future, but yes you need to pay a lot for minor league play. And what teams reduce ticket prices when they tank? None. They just deliver crap product and hope the loyalty of the fans prevents them from abandoning the team and if they do, not for long. It appears that both the Marlins and Rays have chosen the scorched earth approach to baseball. Cut payroll to the bare minimum, hope revenues exceed their costs and hope they hit it with some of their prospects so the team can be competitive at some point in the near future so revenues will go up before payroll, then cut payroll before revenues drop. If somehow they luck out and get the right mix of players they may have a playoff run now and then. But as the bolded part of the quote indicates, it will be hard to see if ownership ever take profit from lean years and use it to supplement a playoff push. Right now, in my opinion, major league baseball is dead in florida - the fans of both franchises are demoralized, the teams are bare-bones cheap, the product on the field is barely major league (Rays) or definitely not (Marlins), both franchises have inherent structural issues to revenues and they both are caught in a catch 22 cycle of cut, cut, cut and hope.

Cain said he was holding out for the fifth year and when he got that from the Brewers he signed. I believe both Cobb and Lynn are also holding out for the extra year before they agree, probably also a fifth year as most teams are likely only willing to go 4 for either of them.

I agree about the desire to trade Archer and their probable lack of interest in Santana. I would propose Broxton instead of Santana and tell them that they have nothing to worry about, he is likely not to have a breakout and not to cost them much money in arbitration so he is a perfect fit for their organization. And then hope they didn't put my number on call blocking...

I always rooted for Hosmer as he was usually my 1B in fantasy baseball leagues with 20 teams & 20 player rosters when he was the only first basemen left in the 12th round, but that is one insane contract. Here are his most similars on baseball-reference: Kevin Young (927.0) Delmon Young (926.7) Troy O'Leary (926.3) Willie Upshaw (926.0) Mike Easler (925.2) Steve Kemp (924.5) Alvin Davis (921.1) Mel Hall (920.7) Walt Dropo (920.6) Dan Ford (918.3) Not the kind of list you want to invest $139M contract, maybe over 42 years... It's still early (with relation to signings this FA season), but I think we've just seen the winner for the worst FA contract this year (and last and probably next). Wow. What an overbay... ah overPay...

I question whether the discussion here has the same issue that has been brought up in the Lucroy thread right now... if Odorizzi had come up somewhere other than our system, would people be as torn about whether this trade is one that Milwaukee should have made? I think that's a good point. He actually would be an excellent addition to the rotation (considering his cost was a middling minor league systems 31st ranked prospect) as a fill-in until Nelson returns. He has excellent upside, but he doesn't bring much more than we already have except maybe less downside risk. I want to believe that Stearns is focusing on getting a better pitcher before we break camp and until most of the pieces are off the board I will trust his judgement. As long as he stops signing washed up SP to minor league contracts....

Well if Esteban Loaiza gets bailed out, why not sign him to a AAA contract to pitch in Colorado Springs. Colorado is one of the few states that has legalized marijuana, there could be endless promotion tie-ins with Esteban. Given the other signees he would fit in perfectly.

I think the experiment with Major League Baseball in Florida is over. It seems with what the Marlins have done and what the Rays do and just did that they are all but intentionally alienating their fan bases. To drive down attendance and revenue's further to argue baseball isn't sustainable in FL? Derek Jeter isn't that stupid and the Rays are not that strapped for cash...

Maybe there's value in making other teams laugh their butts off when they hear who we've signed. Brewers sign Gallardo and Miley = + 2 wins due to injuries of Cubs players falling over laughing. Cubs sign Darvish = no value because Brewers players are crying... Is there value in collecting below replacement level players to take IP and PA away from our own prospects? Really? Wade "Batting Practice" Wiley? He'd only be insurance for a Zombi apocalypse...

Cobb wouldn't be replacing Woodruff in the rotation. He'd be replacing the 5-headed monster of Suter/Guerra/Wilkerson/Gallardo/Lopez Don't know where you are getting your WAR numbers. I use fangraphs (because they actually come up with analytics, not baseball reference which doesn't) and Cobb has 2.2 and 2.5 the years before his 2.8 (if that = elite then Davies is TOR). I just don't see where the problem is. 1) I don't discount our own players as you are clearly doing 2) I don't inflate players on other teams. 3) I don't overpay for production. read my lips: "I want the Brewers to sign Cobb at a max of 4/60" Nothing in that says I don't LIKE him. I simply don't LOVE him and don't expect production he never has had before at an older age. If they need to go higher, the additional money might be better spent when trying to get a TOR at the trade deadline.