As for predictions, the NFL game is always really hard to do. There is so much variance at work, the whole exercise is one of futility, but I'll say 11-6 seems right.
My inclination is actually to be a bit more pessimistic than that, though, which is something I've had to have beaten into me over the last few years. It used to be that a certain amount of regular season dominance could be expected, but that hasn't been the case in a while. I think there are two ways to tell that story.
The first is that the team has been one with more or less the usual Packers amount of potential but has been undermined by really untimely injuries. If they could only have the kind of injury luck that, say, the 2025 Seahawks enjoyed, they would be right there in the title conversation.
The second way to tell that story, though, is that the Packers repeatedly fail in ways that appear quite predictable, even to laypersons. Lack of depth in critical areas (WR in the late Rodgers years, especially as revealed after Adams' departure; defensive line and CB last year), or bewildering coaching and personnel decisions (whatever the heck we think we've been doing on the offensive line for a while, dating back to how we tried to handle Bakhtiari's absence against Tampa in the NFC championship game and extending through the poorly-executed revamp after bringing in Jacobs at RB; to say nothing of MLF's time management issues) mean that one can kind of get a sense how the team is going to fail in a given year.
To wit, I think Parsons' return and the front seven on defense being reinforced enough combined with a much stronger sense of identity in the passing game will give the Packers a very solid floor. Barring catastrophic injury, of course, it is hard for me to see them winning fewer than ten games again, and the potential for more is easy to envision. But I think we have strayed too far from the old foundation of offensive line excellence that used to be the team's true under-appreciated identity. And in a division with St. Brown, Jefferson, Odunze, Burden III, and a bevy of dangerous tight ends, the CB room remains shaky enough to expect that, when the Packers lose a critical game down the stretch or in the playoffs, one of those two position groups (OL or CB) will again be the culprit. And I'm not sure Love and MLF, for as good as they are and can still be together, will overcome that when they haven't really done it to date.
As always, I'm hoping I'm wrong. I know every team in the NFL starts out wishing for health and that their opponents don't find their Achilles' heel. It is just really hard for me to expect the best outcome anymore, when it has been so long since the team performed at the furthest edge of their potential. I won't begrudge those who still see the hope of what this team could be. I see it, too, but it feels to me like looking at the shore while swimming against a rip tide.