HarveysWBs

I wonder if one way to parse the power numbers is that the Brewers hit so few solo home runs (which I’ve read is where they really are league outliers) due to the OBP approach to at-bats when no one is on base, but change their approach a bit when there are ducks on the pond. In that sense, it is less that the players can’t hit home runs as it is that they prefer to be choosier with aggressive swings. To wit, Turang’s bomb came with two on, and Bauers with one. Not solo shots. Perhaps the “can’t hit home runs = doomed in playoffs” narrative is a bit overblown then.

Week 1 is always a little weird around the league, and I know that the MLF discourse has traditionally been that the Packers start particularly slowly. So I reviewed all the week 1 performances under LaFleur and they are as follows: 2019: 10-3 victory in Chicago (not a good Bears team, of course) 2020: 43-34 victory in Minneapolis (barn burner, but also weird no-crowd situation during COVID) 2021: 3-38 loss to Saints (bizarre Jacksonville game because of hurricane Ida) 2022: 7-23 loss in Minneapolis (the beginning of the end of Rodgers’ tenure) 2023: 38-20 win in Chicago (sort of surprisingly positive result in light of Love’s struggles in the rest of the first half that season; Love and the team were widely considered to have improved greatly by the end of the year) 2024: 29-34 loss to Eagles (Brazil game, terrible field surface, and Love gets hurt late; the injury likely did not affect the outcome of the game but slowed his development that year and probably affects how people remember that game) 2025: 27-13 victory over Lions (decisive and tone-setting victory in some ways, though the Lions were not as good as expected by the year’s end) My analysis is that the narrative of slow LaFleur starts was largely a product of Rodgers’ decline and the Love transition, combined with some truly bizarre circumstances, especially with the road and overseas environments. As such, I don’t think it has much to tell us about this week one visit to Minneapolis other than to reinforce that it can be tough to win in that stadium under normal conditions. I expect the Packers probably win 55 or 60% of the time, but my confidence is lower than that in this particular instance. The injury report on the o-line is a bit ominous. Morgan should be fine, but Bako-Bewele and Banks look iffy. If either miss considerable amounts of this game, the Packers offense might be on the struggle bus against a maniacal blitz scheme (likely made even more aggressive by questions in the Minnesota secondary). If they’re both out, I’m only half sarcastic in thinking it might be best to give the Vikings a Pyrrhic victory and send Taylor in to play the second half. The Packers look set to walk a really fine line between excellence and horror this year, which may be the theme of LaFleur’s entire tenure.

Since 1970, when the Pilots became the Brewers, they are 4432-4553 (.493), while the Cubs are 4401-4574 (.490). In that time, the head-to-head matchup favors Milwaukee 239-230, and 3-2 in the playoffs after last year. The Brewers have won eight non-COVID division titles (about to be nine), while the Cubs have won seven. The Brewers have ten playoff appearances, and the Cubs have eleven (about to be eleven and twelve, respectively). The two teams each have one pennant. But, of course, there's 2016. The teams are really close. The last four years especially have given Milwaukee a slight edge. But that one big piece remains to really break through. So, as someone who lives amongst an unfortunate number of Cubs fans, I understand and largely agree with the desire to avoid the chance of an offseason of Cubs crowing (my gosh, the Bears fans are more than enough). But this year, the Brewers have as good a chance against anyone as they ever have. I'll be nervous as heck watching any matchup, and maybe 5% more nervous if it is the Cubs. But it is time to finish the job, and I hope this is the year.

I really freakin’ love this team!

At the very least, if you can’t send Chicago into a spiral out of the postseason entirely, relegating them to the last WC spot and sending them to the opposite side of the bracket works for me as a consolation prize.

As someone who spent much of his adult life rooting for Aaron Rodgers, I can accept the fact that there is a certain amount of finding a chip for your shoulder involved in being a pro athlete. That being said, if Civale has any strong feelings towards the Brewers, it really ought to be embarrassment at how correct the Brewers were in diagnosing where is at this point in his career. The Brewers are not now and will never regret the trade they made, or the request they made for him to be in the bullpen. But I guess good for him if thinking otherwise gets him pumped up.

As for predictions, the NFL game is always really hard to do. There is so much variance at work, the whole exercise is one of futility, but I'll say 11-6 seems right. My inclination is actually to be a bit more pessimistic than that, though, which is something I've had to have beaten into me over the last few years. It used to be that a certain amount of regular season dominance could be expected, but that hasn't been the case in a while. I think there are two ways to tell that story. The first is that the team has been one with more or less the usual Packers amount of potential but has been undermined by really untimely injuries. If they could only have the kind of injury luck that, say, the 2025 Seahawks enjoyed, they would be right there in the title conversation. The second way to tell that story, though, is that the Packers repeatedly fail in ways that appear quite predictable, even to laypersons. Lack of depth in critical areas (WR in the late Rodgers years, especially as revealed after Adams' departure; defensive line and CB last year), or bewildering coaching and personnel decisions (whatever the heck we think we've been doing on the offensive line for a while, dating back to how we tried to handle Bakhtiari's absence against Tampa in the NFC championship game and extending through the poorly-executed revamp after bringing in Jacobs at RB; to say nothing of MLF's time management issues) mean that one can kind of get a sense how the team is going to fail in a given year. To wit, I think Parsons' return and the front seven on defense being reinforced enough combined with a much stronger sense of identity in the passing game will give the Packers a very solid floor. Barring catastrophic injury, of course, it is hard for me to see them winning fewer than ten games again, and the potential for more is easy to envision. But I think we have strayed too far from the old foundation of offensive line excellence that used to be the team's true under-appreciated identity. And in a division with St. Brown, Jefferson, Odunze, Burden III, and a bevy of dangerous tight ends, the CB room remains shaky enough to expect that, when the Packers lose a critical game down the stretch or in the playoffs, one of those two position groups (OL or CB) will again be the culprit. And I'm not sure Love and MLF, for as good as they are and can still be together, will overcome that when they haven't really done it to date. As always, I'm hoping I'm wrong. I know every team in the NFL starts out wishing for health and that their opponents don't find their Achilles' heel. It is just really hard for me to expect the best outcome anymore, when it has been so long since the team performed at the furthest edge of their potential. I won't begrudge those who still see the hope of what this team could be. I see it, too, but it feels to me like looking at the shore while swimming against a rip tide.

That's gotta be deflating knowing you put five on the Cy Young winner in four innings and still lost convincingly. Glad I'm not having to live with that shame.

That's my Joey O!

I kind of thought Hoerner was a meh shortstop, but he's made some plays tonight.

Nice to see the HR/FB ratio finally starting to level off a smidge. That trend can continue as far as I'm concerned.

Atta boy, Pratt, way to stay focused up there.

Yeah, the one Tyrone Taylor happens to be manning right field in at any given time.

C'mon man, cannot walk Amaya there. Give me a break.

Is there a way of verifying whether a pitchcom device is actually malfunctioning, or is it just the wild west out there on this issue? Not saying the pitcher or any pitcher was faking, just an area of curiosity for me.

I know it's a split-second thing, but Frelick needed to wear that 1st pitch for an RBI. I think he knew it, too.

Bregman bailed him out, but a result is a result.

Miz could really use a win in this AB. That would change the complexion of the outing just a bit.

Just another reason to get a bye and set up your rotation so he pitches at home, then.

He has exceeded my expectations at the plate for this year, so I'll go with yes.

Well then, I guess there is still a little hope Miz might just outduel Peterson here in this one. Didn't think it would be this hard, but here we are.

I get trying to give Turang, who can be one of the better bats in the lineup, a chance to figure some things out against lefties...up until about a month ago. It is getting awfully late to keep banging up against that wall.

Ha, nice execution on the bunt. That works.

Biggest difference in the series so far is how the Cubs absolutely refuse to swing out of the zone while the Brewers bats are. Joey has been as hot as anyone in the second half, but he swung at two balls way up and out of the zone in that AB. I know they can't all be 40-HR guys, but it is within all their powers to be more selective.

And this is after they are getting nothing from Swanson, their bajillion dollar shortstop. It seems they have remembered they are actually a mega market team. Imagine that.