badger3034

It isn't about Woodruff, I'm pretty sure at this point it's guaranteed he's going to have a starting spot. You need another starter, unless you're going to roll with Suter, which would be pretty ugly. He had a good half season last year, but no teams had seen him very much up to that point. They have a scouting report on him now, and he's gonna get hit..... hard. Anderson Davies Chacin Woodruff I like Davies, but I don't think he would be a #2 on almost any other team in baseball right now, that's pretty ugly. You need another #2/1 starter, otherwise this season is just going to be a wash, unless Jimmy comes back early and is as good as he was last season.

That's the problem. You are removing variables, and you can't do that in the real world. Yes, if money, age and arm wear wasn't an issue, I'd take Arrieta. But then, if those weren't issues, he would have resigned with the Cubs long ago. Fact is, they are, and Cobb has him beat in all those variables. He is going to be cheaper, he is nearly 2 years younger, and he doesn't have near the milage on his arm. I mean, what are you trying to get at? In a vacuum, Arrieta is the better pitcher. But life doesn't operate in a vacuum. Arrietta being 1 year older doesn't really seem to move the needle for that variable. Cobb having 2 TJ also seems to push it towards Arrietta with how much he's pitched over the years. Also, Arrietta is a better overall pitcher when he's on. The only thing going for Cobb in this scenario is the money, and that he could get his change up back.

Thanks for the links, I'd tend to believe the local reporter on that one

I'd be in favor of either one. The milage on Arrieta's arm is worrisome, but he keeps himself in terrific shape, and is a bulldog on the mound. I like both of them much, much better than Lynn. Wasn't the question, which one would you prefer? Since the Brewers only have a chance at one of them, which one would you prefer at their best, with no injuries?

And what if Cobb doesn't get his change up back? I'm still under the impression, as a previous poster stated, an additional $5 million a year for the better overall pitcher, not based on one pitch, is the better investment. If Cobb weren't to get his best pitch back, he'd probably be someone to regress quicker than most, not even considering his injury factor. I don't understand why you guys are so against spending a little cash, the owner is the one who dictates his budget, and no one even knows exactly the lengths he's willing to go. If he was really attached to this franchise, don't you think he'd be willing to pony up to try to get to a world series? It's all hypothetical, regardless. I think it just comes down to who you think is the better pitcher. I'll just ask a question, if Arrietta and Cobb are at their best, who is the better pitcher? Now factor in the difference of $4.5 million a year, which is the better value? Don't forget the context of the question included that both pitchers are at their best, with no injuries.

I figure Vogt gets 25 starts at 1B between Braun needing days off or DHing, he can also catch if you want to stack the lineup against a righty who has really bad splits. Figure he gets 30-35 starts all season. I'm thinking Braun can be a backup corner OF as well. What? Lol, so we have one fictional situation (that I'm hoping for) with Braun playing 1B, now Vogt is playing 1B, and currently the Brewers have 2 1B's on their roster in Aguilar and Thames. Vogt is a complete waste of space if you were to sign Lucroy, can someone tell me if his contract is guaranteed with a ML spot or not? Aguilar and Thames are 10000x better than playing Vogt at 1B, guy would be a complete waste of space on the bench with that roster

I don't like Suter being the 5th starter in that rotation. Need another pitcher. I'd flip flop Braun and Santana and arcia with the 9 hole, but that offense is stellar, probably top 5, if not 3 in the MLB. I love that bullpen too, lots of flexibility and guys that can go longer than 1 inning. I'm pretty sure I'm against trading Santana at this point as long as Braun can play 1B, that offense is just too good I guess, even though he's already signed, I think I'd rather have another utility player instead of vogt if we got lucroy. He's literally just gonna be dead space on the bench if we have 3 catchers, he'd be lucky if he played 50 games, barring injuries of course

Seems weird to me that you guys think Cobb is willing to sign for 4/60, or as I would think, less than 4/80. If we as random fans believe that Cobb has the potential for a #2, or a #1 as some may say, what do you think Cobb thinks his own potential is (or team gms)? I know that most of you guys don't like giving out contracts on previous stats, and that leaves the argument in Cobb's sake for asking for more money. I'm pretty sure that the guy would've been signed if he was asking for a reasonable contract like that. Every team in all of baseball is looking for good pitching all the time, regardless of rumors, and there would've been someone who would've found him at that price....... if that's what he was asking for.

I'm under the impression that none of the remaining top SP's are going to take a contract less than 4/80. In that case, would you feel better about signing Arrietta at 4/100, or Cobb at 4/80? I think Arrietta is the safer bet at at $5 mil more a year

It sounds like Archer would cost pretty much our entire farm, and the 31-year old free agents on the market are looking for long-term, nine figure deals. That sounds like a "king's ransom" to me. If we get a ridiculous deal on a free agent, then fine, "strike." If the FAs were looking at signing for ridiculous deals, then they wouldn't still be unemployed. I want the Brewers to add a starter because they need someone else to fill out the rotation. I don't want them to do something that will hurt them in a couple of years just because they feel the urge to "win now." The Braun contract isn't going anywhere, and we just signed Cain. If we add Arrieta, we will have three 30-somethings taking up over half our probable max payroll for the next half-decade. That could get really ugly. Correct me if I'm wrong, but from what you're saying here is that you're basically hoping the brewers don't do anything until the end of these contracts they already have on the books? Any decent starting pitching on the free agent market is going to be pricey, whether that's now, or 5 years from now. In 5 years actually, you'll probably be paying more for worse pitching, therefore putting the brewers in a bigger hole. If you want to attempt to trade for pitching, you're gonna be giving up a lot in your farm system in the off-season, and even more in the middle of the season. Cobb and Lynn are commanding a salary pretty similar to Arrietta I'm sure, otherwise they would've signed already. This free agency period is probably your best method of signing a pitcher, so which do you want to take? They'll all have similarish contracts, Cobb, Lynn, or Arrietta? I'll take Jake

This might not be relevant, but keep in mind that the opening +/- for the brewer win total last year in Vegas was 68 1/2. I think it ended up around 70 1/2, but either way, professionals just seem to like to rag on the Wisconsin teams in general I think, except the packers. This type of projection does not surprise me. Also, last year I had projected the brewers at about 83 wins pre season, so I would've bet that over under if I was in Vegas lol

In this hypothetical situation, I'm able to pick any available free agent regardless of price tag? Then I'm taking J.D. Martinez easily. This makes Santana much more expendable in my mind, and opens up your logjam in the outfield, with J.D. being an even more potent threat than Domingo. At that point, I'm willing to give up more prospects with a Santana package because your window has shortened so much. I'll give a package of Santana, Burnes and Erceg for Stroman if that would be enough. Rotation when Jimmy comes back (if he's what he was last year): Stroman Jimmy Chase Davies Chacin Lineup: 1. Cain 2. Yelich 3. Braun (Phillips fills in randomly for any of these 3) 4. Martinez 5. Shaw 6. Villar 7. Pina 8. P 9. Arcia That looks like a WS contender to me, I'm also ditching thames or aguilar in this scenario. I don't really care which one, you take your pick.

There's also experts out there that believe that Archer would excel if removed from the AL East. He's got the durability and stuff to make it happen. As for other high ceiling prospects, Lutz has all the makings of a stud, and Ray was a top 5 pick for a reason. Kirby should be back this season, and could be a quick riser. Erceg could be the 3B of the future. Ortiz is a former Top 100 guy who is still very young and can ascend. Young guys like Carmona, Ernesto, Rogriguez and Ward have HUGE potential. It's still a very good system. What TB wants is more than what's currently listed in our current top 100 prospects for Archer, which would be maybe considered a top 20-25 pitcher in baseball. Sure, he's cheap with years controller, but likely, he's going to get worse pitching in a hitters stadium like Miller. I think, and I'd assume most gms would feel this way, that spending money is a more efficient way to get a pitcher like that, than giving up your best prospects. And I missed Erceg, made a mistake there. He's the only one of the people you mentioned additional that I personally think has actual value

Yes, system strength is cyclical, as prospects graduate or are traded off. But to say these guys are the last remaining high-ceiling prospects is a pretty myopic viewpoint. Burnes was a 2016 draftee, and Hiura was just drafted last season. A whole new batch of prospects will be introduced to the system through the draft and international free agency in only a few months. I have been very impressed with Sterns's drafts, as he seems to be prioritizing upside over the "safe" picks that littered the Doug Melvin years. The whole goal of a farm system is to improve the major league team. If that means prospects mature and end up playing for the Brewers, great! If that means prospects are used as currency to improve the major league club through trades, also great. If they trade Burnes and Hiura for a pitcher, it will be a hit, but the system isn't even close to being compromised. Don't get me wrong in the way that I'm against trading away prospects for proven MLB players. I'm for it, it's just that a player like Chris Archer is far from a player you really want to be trading for imo. Can you name some other high ceiling players in the farm system right now that doesn't deplete it? Multiple farm projections have came out listing only about 3-5 top 100 prospects in our system. I'm not saying that these are gospel, but these people are literally paid to study this stuff, that's their job.

I too agree on Phillips. His profile fits exactly what Stearns is trying to do. To me, though, Burnes, Hiura and any other prospect are expendable in the right deal. Burnes is a nice pitching prospect, and it's nice to have those. Hiura has proven absolutely nothing. We have no idea is he can even play in the field. If someone attaches a high value to him, and wants to give up a high-end starter, bye-bye Keston. So far, neither Keston nor Burnes has proven anything, to your point. Neither has seen ML time and each could be a total flop. But that is the gamble you take with prospects the mass majority of the time right? I think you have to trust the professional scouts (to an extent) and believe that they know what they're talking about when they say that these two have some of the highest ceilings in our farm system. Phillips isn't a prospect anymore, hes a ML player, and I think our system is growing thin, contrary to popular belief on this board. I think these are getting closer (not the last hope) to the last remaining high ceiling prospects we have in our system, and I'm not willing to give them up.

Ticket prices and hot dog prices have absolutely nothing to do with players salaries.....at least in that if you raise payroll, that doesn't directly lead to a raise in ticket prices. If you raise payroll and you sign a guy like Darvish and you win 95 games, THAT would lead to a raise ticket prices, but only because it's what the market would bear. They can't set ticket prices at a price point that nobody is going to pay. Do you think if the players never earned the rights to become free agents and the league was still making the same amount of money, but payrolls topped out around 30 million dollars that the owners would keep ticket prices and beer prices artificially low? Of course not. They charge what people are willing to pay to maximize revenue. Same reason why Jordan's cost hundreds of dollars but only cost 10 bucks to be made. Why isn't Nike selling them for 15 bucks? Because people are willing to pay 300 for them. It's the same reason that it's just asinine to "demonize" players as you put it for getting paid as much as they can, EVEN if they go on to struggle as was the case with Matt Garza. We weren't the only team offering Garza, a proven winner(at the time) a large contract. He had earned that. And then his body just simply didn't allow him to live up to it. But you start demonizing people for not saying, "no...really, don't give me 50 million, just give me 25, I can't promise you I'll be healthy," and you're being totally unrealistic. Garza was an intense competitor. I also realize there was a blip on his tenure here during the end of the '16 season, but nonetheless, he was an intense competitor who seemingly worked hard and just didn't have it anymore. But I hardly blame him for accepting the money. And if we sign Darvish(and don't win a WS in the next 2-3 years) I'm sure there's gonna be a lot of complaining about him in years 4-5...and even 6. But I don't know why sports is the only industry we're upset with the workers trying to maximize their value and blame THEM or in your words "demonize" them rather than the BILLIONAIRE owners who are making more than any player in the game...either year to year or in increasing equity. Lets turn it around. Has Mark A "earned"...what, 750 million dollars as owner of the Brewers? Forbes valued the team at 50 million dollars more from 16 to 17. Did he earn that? Should we demonize him for that? I don't begrudge anyone from maximizing their earning potential. I ROOT as a fan of the team for the team to make good decisions, but when the TEAM signs a guy like Garza, I don't blame him if it doesn't work out. Seems short sighted and frankly hypocritical to me as I KNOW I'd have taken that deal in a heartbeat. +1, thanks for sharing your opinion I don't think that this plays into the idea of collusion, and this post fits this topic well. It has to do with the idea of how much the Brewers are willing to pay Darvish. At some point, a small market team will have to pay to attempt to win, and at the time that the Brewers signed Garza, I'm not sure there were TOO many people complaining. There are always going to be a few people who are against a large contract like that. You have to take chances, and that was a chance the Brewers took. I think it was more calculated than most people think though, just look at their payroll over the last number of years, its been tiny

I am convinced now more than ever that the GM's of the given teams are the only ones that have any actual insight. I would also guess that there is a significantly better chance than 5% that Archer could be a Brewer. At this point, I don't think I even want Archer. The idea of giving up so many prospects for a player that we could just give some money too (those free agents are probably just as good as Archer, except Lynn), makes me upset. Phillips is such an amazing compliment to this roster, he fits so perfectly. I would be very upset if we managed to give him up.

Is this speculation on your part, or have you seen/heard something somewhere? I haven't seen anything saying the Brewers are out on Archer. Also, if they make a trade for a top of the rotation starter, I am 99% sure one of Burnes or Hiura, if not both, would be the return. Teams aren't giving up top pitchers easily, but if they are, they are going to want your top prospects in return. Also, regarding HH19, he gone. My comments are purely speculation, I have no idea whats going to happen. My hope is that the Brewers would rather pony up some cash to improve their SP situation as opposed to getting rid of Phillips/Burnes/Hiura for it. That is mortgaging your future. Those are guys that definitely have potential to be good major league players, imo more than Brinson.

Oakland is already an easy team to root for and having Santana and Davis in the middle of the lineup would make it even easier. Back on topic, I believe the Brewers are holding out hope for the price coming down on Archer. He is Option A for the Brewers at this point. They will wait until they can't wait any longer. If things did fall apart, I believe Option B is the Indians for Salazar. Option C would be to move Santana for a Puk-like prospect. I am excited for one of these to break as I believe all of these would be good moves to solidify the rotation long term. Maybe HH19 can provide some details, but I think Stearns has walked away from the idea of an Archer trade. Tampa believes his value is way too high in my opinion, and I don't think he wants to give too much more than he has already offered. My guess would be that a Santana + for Archer trade would be 95% towards no. Also I want to add, any addition of Phillips/Burnes/Hiura to that trade makes me absolutely cringe. I think anyone else could/should be on the table

Not gonna happen, guaranteed someone will outbid that

Mr. Heat is gone for good. Again. Maybe? I don't know that Darvish doesn't want to play for a MW team, or small market team, etc. As I said earlier, my guess is his agent realizes the Brewers are offering X, only a matter of time before one of the big boys tops that offer. So it's worth waiting, no downside. I think there is a downside. If Yu were to greatly outperform Cobb/Lynn, you missed out on a chance to get a really good pitcher. I don't think there is much of a downside in the opposite direction if Mark A doesn't mind shelling out the money. It's his money, he can spend it to his hearts desire, and we aren't even in the realm of the luxury tax. Now does Yu really outperform Cobb/Lynn over a 3 year span for say? My answer is yes

They desperately need a SP???????????? Lester/Hendricks/Quintana/Chatwood/Montgomery Far from a need............. Then why go for Darvish? Possibly they'd like to have Montgomery coming out of the pen? They'd more than likely have the money to sign Darvish if he chose to go

The Brewers just got done paying Matt Garza $50 million. For a grand total of 26 wins in four seasons. Should we be demonizing players who demand what you are calling "fair market value"? You're dang right we should! Granted there are players who do live up to the hefty contracts they sign, but there are far more who don't. Owners are just as much to blame as players for letting it spiral to this point. Matt Kemp signing an 8-year contract for $160 million and Ellsbury's 7-year, $153 million contract are not fair market. They were dumb, and the teams that hold those contracts deserve the ridicule they get. And guess what ... reigning in these contracts is putting the Brewers on an equal playing field with the big-market teams. That's a good thing. I guess my mindset is that at some point you're going to have to pony up some cash in order to compete. Even if you were to build some amazing farm system and were able to make a world series with a low payroll and players from your own system, most of those players are going to want to get paid at some point, and you're going to have to let some of them go. Do you think that in this 3-4 year window we will have a Yu Darvish type pitcher come up from our own farm? It is entirely possible, which would more than likely be Burnes. At the same time, how many of your good pitchers are going to want to get contracts before that 3-4 window is up? Can the Brewers compete right now with whats in their farm and who they currently have? I guess you could, but if you have a window as a small market team, it would be my opinion that you should try and get these big profile guys. These big teams are only waiting until next year when there is a totally stacked free agency pool and they won't get wrecked by the luxury tax. My question would be, are any of the top 4 pitchers better than what we currently have? And if so, what place would you rank them? If Nelson comes back the way he was last season, I guess I'd rank Arrietta and Darvish at #2/3 in our current rotation (including Nelson), and Cobb/Lynn a pretty solid #3, unless Davies has an incredible break out season. Best case scenario is that Davies does that, Nelson is awesome, and you have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball on top of an already stellar offense, competing for a world series. When you're a small market team, you have to jump all over that. You're not mortgaging your future on these guys because more than likely, if you're not competing, a team that IS competing will want to trade for an asset like that.

Agreed. Just get the feeling that opposing teams would only be putting offers out valuing Santana as a 1.5-2.0 WAR player and with only an approximate 600k price tag for 2018...it makes it an easy decision to keep him. Also think if Santana stays the outfield should be Yelich-Cain-Santana and if Domingo hits over the first three months of the season and establishes himself as a solid 3 WAR player, then he could be a wonderful sell at the deadline considering his still low salary and what would be 3.5 years of control left. Still appears to be plenty of doubters now, but likely will be plenty more believers if it gets to the end of June and he is OBP'ing .360 and OPS'ing .870 which are easily within his reach. I think this an easy achievement for Domingo, due to the fact he has some really good hitters in front of him. If Braunny stays healthy and plays 1B on a daily basis, that should be easily done.

If I were to guess, it would be the price tag. The guy won a Cy Young award 3 years ago, and it isn't like his stuff fell off the map. He is still a good pitcher, contrary to what some of the people on this forum believe. I'm sure the guy is asking for the moon and teams aren't surrendering to it. If you're applying for a job, you might be asked what salary you feel you deserve, and they'll counter with what they feel is the proper amount. The problem is, he isn't changing his price tag. This is mostly due to his agent, obviously, and in my opinion, it's possible that this could cost a lot of players a lot of money. I think there will be a lot of players going into the season that won't be signed, and each game that goes by will cost them cash. I think as the start of the season gets closer, some of these guys will realize that and just take whats given to them. Maybe it's because I haven't won the lottery yet, but if I have multiple millions of dollars on the table offered to me, I'm not going to just let that slip away. This is pretty anti-climactic and annoying as fans, but I think we still have another few weeks to go until we start to see players surrender to the fact that they aren't going to get an Alex Rodriguez type contract. Also, where can I get a Brewer logo that's a small enough size for my avatar? Noob question...