True Blue Brew Crew

I'll also add that the Brewers sure as heck rank their own when it comes time to offer up minor league talent in group tiers when targeting a major league player via trade. Most well known example was the CC Sabathia trade. I can only speculate but if the Brewers were actively in trade discussions today with another team and offering up a package of minor leaguers, they'd have Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Wiemer, and Quero at minimum above Ruiz. And I think there's a good chance they'd have Black and Small above him as well. Reading between the lines it even sounds like Gasser was the priority guy between he and Ruiz in the Hader deal so I'd venture he's above Esteury too. I think the dirty secret and most overlooked aspect of the Hader trade was that they had no intention of ever paying his final arbitration year, other teams realized it, and the prospect haul was going to be underwhelming at this point. Especially when taking back said trading partner's current major league closer (Rogers) as part of the deal. Edit: And I think fans' expectations of this massive haul for Hader is directly leading to an overvaluation of the prospects received. It's hard for people to accept that the prospect return for Hader was 2 guys who weren't universally hailed as can't miss or near can't miss guys.

The nature of the trade deadline necessitates an organization and it's scouts ranking the prospects of the team who is interested in their major league talent. Often GMs are given lists of players to choose from, as talks intensify, even multiple groupings of players to choose one from each group. Then the scouts chime in with where they have the grouped players ranked amongst one another. It happens literally all the time.

Of course they do, not all individual scouts are going to necessarily keep a running list but organizations rank players all the time and as monty pointed out, it doesn't go public. Scouts sure as heck check age, playing environment, sample, and a whole host of other metrics, before daring to run to management with massive hype over a prospect's recent stats.

Spot on, including the part about my delivery issue. I'm working on it.

Of course the scouting world is going to have a better read on talent than Joe Fan. But why not try and learn the things scouts look at when trying to put together a prospect ranking. If people don't want to put in the effort to do more than gloss over statistics, that's fine. But what's the harm in raising some of the things most people don't think to look at, that the professionals do? Me doing that is contrarian? What board will we have here if that's frowned upon?

Not being contrarian, being realistic. Interesting that anyone who doesn't agree with you is "contrarian". The things I'm bringing up are things the scouting community pays close attention to. Thousands of prospects have put up eye opening numbers and not soared up scouting rankings in the same manner that fans have elevated them. There's a reason for this. And more often than not it's the scouting world that is the side more grounded in reality.

Oh boy. Have you considered that GMs, scouts, and ranking services sometimes go deeper than one half season's stats. There's a discussion going on about this exact thing in the minor league forum in the August Prospect List Update.

The fact were now counting on prospects that just arrived in AAA to spark this offense into and through the playoffs is somewhat eye opening and even more concerning

Stearns pulling a Costanza in an attempt to free himself up to join the Mets

Who has high expectations of the Brewers slugging out 3 solo HRs versus the Dodgers, Padres, Mets, and Braves pitching staffs in October? This is not a lineup that can be expected to do much when you face playoff teams' top 3 starters and best bullpen arms. Tim, you're right. It is an unaccepted outcome to not add at least one bat when this franchise possesses the kind of pitching it is near impossible for a small market to assemble for a sustained period of time. And it only took a few hours for the glaring deadline mistake to bear out when a 3rd catcher was batting with 2 outs and the bases loaded, in a game the team was down 2 runs. Unacceptable.

I'm sorry did they pick Wyatt at 22? Looks like neither of us can claim much victory on this one. Perhaps having 2 first made them comfortable taking an older player at 28

He's 21

What other predictor are you missing on this one?

21 years old, they like 'em young

People keep quoting me, I'm simply replying back. Is that not what this place is for? Plus it's always the same people. There are a few longtime posters and moderators here who think they have a monopoly on thought. If you don't share their view they let you know about it. Heaven forbid you reply back and explain your viewpoint. Despite being an optimist myself, I'm starting to sympathize with the pessimists who get shut down by these same people.

The whole point is that people are looking in the wrong direction. Do you want some absolutes counselor? Under Gute the Packers have not used a first on a player over 22 (4 of 5 have been 21) and the lowest RAS (athletic score) was 8.35. Those are great starting points if you want to really get an idea of whom the Packers have their eye on. Not official visits. There's sound logic behind both criteria. You want that 2nd contract (years 6 through 9 or 10) to be in the player's physical prime and as little of it while they're in their 30s as possible. And a first rounder should have some elite level of athleticism.

Right so there's no conclusion to be drawn from them having a player in for a visit. Most of the players who came in for visits and wound up being Packers were added as undrafted free agents. Yet we are in 2022 still trying to make a big deal about 1st round caliber players the Packers are flying into Green Bay ahead of the draft.

Have the Packers brought in Alec Pierce for a visit? My guess is no. There's someone people should be getting attached to if they don't want to be surprised or disappointed when his name is called.

They literally never even spoke a word to Jaire Alexander. Jaire had zero indication that the Packers had any interest in him and was completely taken by surprise when the Packers drafted him. They have a well documented history of using their official visits as smokescreens. None of this is new, yet here we still are. This is why so many Packers fans will continue to be surprised and miffed when the Packers pass on their draft crushes and draft someone that fans weren't doing deep digging into.

Perspective... Peter Bukowski - Rashan Gary is the same age as Devante Wyatt

They love their smokescreens

Big difference between marketing firms hiring people at a fraction of the salary who could be with them for 40 years vs NFL teams drafting athletes trying to time up their physical prime. It's no secret that the Packers idea of a successful draft pick is getting 2 contracts out them. They rarely make exceptions and give out that 3rd contract. We have countless examples of players performing at a high level that the Packers have bid adieu and then watched that player not live up to their 3rd contract elsewhere. Fan favorites at that. And of course that doesn't mean they hand out 2nd contracts to draft picks that don't pan out. Do be ridiculous. Again, teams draft players with the intention at the time that said player is going to be good. No one is writing the name on the card saying this guy is going to be terrible. And yes it does matter and it's not just Raimann. Here is a list of player pushing 23+ who might go in the first round that I'd happily make a friendly wager with anyone here that the Packers won't draft with either of their 1st round picks... Bernard Raimann Devin Lloyd Devonte Wyatt Trevor Penning (22.9) Jermaine Johnson Jalen Pitre (22.8) Boye Mafe Jaquan Brisker (22.9) Arnold Ebiketie Malik Willis Kenny Pickett Abraham Lucas Christian Watson (22.9) The bolded I've seen mocked to the Packers at either 22 or 28, or to other teams in that vicinity and linked to the Packers. It's not happening. No QB surprise this year either even if Kenny Pickett were to slide ala Aaron Rodgers. Some pretty juicy names there. I'd love to see Wyatt on the board at 22 and then read all the chatter in that 15 minute window that the Packers are surely taking him. Then laugh when they take someone else that they're perceived to be reaching for. Wyatt is 24 years old.

Thanks for looking that up. I had a feeling it extended beyond the first round for them and you just illustrated that. No doubt they'll make an exception from time to time in rounds 2-4 but I doubt we'll see a draft choice over 22 by Gute in round 1. Especially with that 5th year option.

If you want to leave open the possibility for an exception, go for it. Logically though it becomes clear that there's more to their first round draft pattern than a preference for simple youth. They're a draft and develop team that rarely makes exceptions when it comes to giving big money and 3rd contracts to players over 30. Knowing that, it makes all the sense in the world that they'd have a pretty strict rule criteria for 1st round picks when the number of players they have interest in is at its longest. Drafting a 24 year old with a first round pick means he's 29 after one contract. That's not value for a team that sets out to get as much of two contracts out of players before they hit 30. And every pick is made with the intent of the player panning out. You don't use a first rounder on a player whose best case scenario means giving him that one big extension when they're on the cusp of 30. The Packers want those most expensive years (the 2nd contract) to come in the player's physical prime (25-29).

They draft with the intent of getting 2 contracts out of players. They're not going to use a first rounder on someone with the intent on letting him walk after his first contract. I didn't contradict anything. I'm actually surprised what I stated isn't common knowledge by now. Gute's concrete preference for youth and athleticism from his first rounders is well documented. Just a really weird argument to make.