True Blue Brew Crew

This is one of the better ones I've seen. I'm too lazy to do one myself, but I'd have Lutz, Z Brown, and Turang 2-4 in that order. I love the Brewers top 4 with those 3 and Hiura. I think you have Ray and Dubon more appropriately placed than most who have them too high. I'd bump Gray higher than you have him as well. Overall, nice list.

Loaded jerky words for a fan site based on one's honest opinion, be it right or wrong. Please clarify.... It hasn't happened yet = bad idea? Only hotel developers have the wisdom to know where to build? So you yourself have no opinion or do you think it's a bad idea? And if you are against the idea itself, with which developer do you work? I was actually on your side. As a non-hotel development expert myself, I think you made some great points as to why it could work. It's those completely ruling it out that I was scratching my head at.

I had no idea we has so many hotel development experts on this site. What a neat thing.

Cringe. Why would the 22 year old with the best numbers be #3 of the trio and the most expendable? By "as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be," I mean that talented, young starting pitchers are not expendable. It should take a huge return for the Brewers to ever think of trading away a talented, young starting pitcher. Right now, for maybe the first time in team history, the Brewers have multiple talented, young starting pitchers who have shown some degree of success at the MLB level, so while I don't want to trade any of them, Peralta is probably "as expendable as a talented young starting pitcher could be." As I mentioned in the post, I don't like trading prospects for short-term players. We'd have Paxton for two-years, while giving up 12 years of Peralta and Ray, plus whatever Thames has left. That could help put us over the top for the short-term, while potentially seriously hurting us in the long term if Ray and Peralta pan out. I think the Brewers should hold on to their good prospects, and would be happier with a quiet offseason than one in which we trade away a lot of future talent for a better chance to win in 2019. I just saw the article and posted it for discussion. We traded away young talent this year to try to improve mid-season, and the decision is there as to whether we should trade more of our future to help out in 2019. I'm not a fan of that, but right now Peralta is less likely than Burnes and probably Woodruff to be in the starting rotation on opening day 2019. I'd personally start him in AAA as one of the first call-ups when a starter is needed, but I have a bad feeling that the Brewers will feel the need to keep him in the bullpen in a "right handed Hader" role, burning his service time to help win in 2019. If he spends a year or two in the pen, thereby having 1-2 less years of service time, he will have less value two years from now then he does now, so if that is the plan, I would entertain the option of trading him. Conversely, if they think he will become a solid starting pitcher that will have a spot in the Brewer rotation for the next half-decade, they should not consider trading him for a short-term upgrade. Ah, I gotcha. I agree with what you're saying so far as the Brewers might be positioned to offer up the highest value young starting pitching talent on the market. That's a strange sentence for me to type given young starting pitching is worth even more to a small market team like Milwaukee. But if Stearns deems they have enough to part with one for a large enough haul I could go along with it. Where I disagree is with Peralta being the furthest from the rotation. Since young pitching is a commodity, the Brewers should be able to part with the one who holds the least value to them and still get a great return. To me the most expendable is Woodruff. I've belabored those reasons elsewhere on this forum so I'll leave it at that.

The spin rate on Peralta's two fastballs varies by over 1000 rpm and the velocity range is from 88-97 mph. Call it whatever you want, they are two different pitches and he throws both of them often. Freddy himself said its a near 50/50 split from what I recall. And if the guy who wrote the novel above wants to say I'm making this up, go right ahead and believe that. I've cited more than enough sources and data past and present.

I think his difficulties that start the 2nd time through are gone once he has confidence and refinement of the changeup. And I think he's not that far off. That's why I've said multiple times, I really don't want him going anywhere. With the caveat that if a big enough controllable bat is available for one of Peralta, Burnes, or Woodruff, I'm dealing Woodruff for the simple fact he's the oldest with the most ground to cover statistically. I don't think any of them are going anywhere though. Hiura is about to fill one of their 2 biggest holes and teams can win it all with an all-mitt, no bat catcher. We know this because the Red Sox just did it.

I wonder if the release extension has anything to do with the data that seems to not jive with reality on its face. Tyler Glasnow is the other guy I think of right away when it comes to extreme extension, though he's like 5 feet taller than Peralta. Anyway, unless he ditched his 2-seamer this year, Brooks has him throwing exclusively 4-seamers this year, which I don't think is right. The other thing I can think of is that many pitcher's 4-seamer has at least some armside run. If Peralta isn't generating much of that, the delta between the cutter movement and the 4-seam movement may not be as great as it usually is. So it could be confusing to their system if the cutter is really cutting and the 4-seam isn't doing much of anything. Glasnow is indeed the one often cited when people discuss the extreme extension Peralta has in his delivery. And I have a feeling you're right about the confusing movement data from Brooks. All anyone needs is a pair of eyes to see the tremendous amount of movement on his pitches.

They do not. There are at least three species of fastball they assign pitches to: Fourseam, Cutter, Sinker. There are Splitters as well, if you want to call that a fastball variation. There may be more as well. Check out Wade Miley's page. Got it, thank you, that helps.

Very accurate, both 4 seamers, with the grip rotated on one where the resulting action is that of a cutter.

Except for, you know, all the people also bringing facts. I love it when people bring facts. I wish there were more.

Why would you need clarification on anything when you already told everyone, and factually so according to you, that he has *2* fastballs and *both* with *crazy movement*. So what would it matter what Brooks says then...unless it turns out you *weren't* factually correct, right? I'm seeking clarification on the way the stat is compiled. I already know it's giving a misleading result. I apologize if that was too much to keep up with. I'll take blame for not being clear enough.

This combines two different pitches, though. When you mix data for a 4-seam FB and a cutter, the horizontal data (and probably the vertical data too somewhat) is going to cancel itself out. Yeah, thought it was interesting that Brooks didn't classify his 4 seam & cutter separately. From what I understand they identify pitches by algorithm depending on each pitch's velo, h-movement & v-movement. If that is the case it would seem the difference between the two pitches was subtle enough to not trigger distinct classifications. And That, correct me of I'm wrong, but it's because they combine all fastballs as one statistic. The two pitches are anything but subtly different. They act the complete opposite. Which is why blending their movement data essentially cancels out the statistical result which gives an entirely false picture.

Most of the comments relate more to deception in his delivery and release point than movement. Guys see it too late and can't react. Guys will figure out how to pick up his pitches quicker as they see him more, deception won't last forever. Lol. Yelich could see the unreal amount of movement on his pitches from the outfield. He said to him the ball looked like it was moving "5 feet". You can watch a broadcast and see how much his pitches move. Watch the catcher's glove. It's astonishing the lengths some here are going to discredit a prospect they should be giddy about. And then to say his deception will drop off as batters see him more. He's literally the one pitcher on the team who actually became harder to hit on repeat trips through the order.

Cringe. Why would the 22 year old with the best numbers be #3 of the trio and the most expendable?

If you guys can't remember what opposing players have said about Peralta's movement or what Yelich said he was seeing from the outfield, that's unfortunate. That aside, it's simple baseball logic that tells you how 91-92 can induce more strikeouts (11.03 K/9) and fewer hits (.187 BAA) than 95 or even 97. It's one word, 8 letters, begins with "M" and ends with "T".

I think this probably has more to do with how you present your information than the information itself. You are basically calling everyone who doesn't agree with your opinion uninformed. That isn't going to play well. That said, I totally get why you are excited about Peralta. His stuff, when on, is electric. But ... it is easy, too, to see after looking at how Burnes and Woodruff performed in September and in the playoffs how many fans can rank Peralta #3 of the "big 3" young pitchers, therefore making him the most expendable in a deal. It's certainly a terrific situation for the Brewers to be in. Yes I'm admittedly frustrated. I keep seeing the same misinformation over and over. Thus why I say uninformed. "Woodruff struggles begin the 3rd time through", "Peralta only throws 2 pitches", "Peralta seems like the one who gets hit harder as the game goes on" are obvious ones. Then there are subtle ones which I don't blame people for not knowing such as how their velocity's are essentially equal given Peralta's ridiculous extension. So I choose to keep repeating myself until the false info ceases to be spread. As tiresome as it is to some of you to have me keep saying these things, it's just as tiresome to me to keep seeing the same false things said here. At least my repetition is factual. I mean, we just had someone claim that Woodruff and Peralta have the same amount of movement and any claim otherwise was ridiculous. Really? All this discussion proves is that you can inform, inform, inform, and if the facts don't align with someone's previously formed opinion which was shaped by falsehoods, it simply won't matter. That' the way of the world today though. So really all I hope to be able to do is have the facts take root with more people. And believe it or not, I think that's happened.

Yes. I pointed that out earlier as well. Completely glossed over.

It's irrefutable fact that Peralta has greater movement on his fastball than Woodruff. It's irrefutable fact that Peralta gets more use out of and has more success with a 3rd pitch (curveball) than Woodruff's 3rd (changeup). It's irrefutable fact that Peralta has had much more success multiple times through a lineup than Woodruff. It's irrefutable fact that Peralta is 3.5 years younger than Woodruff. If anyone wants to argue any of these facts, do so at your own risk of looking very silly.

Most of the posts in this topic have been pure opinion. I come in with stats, facts, and yes opinion and I'm the one who is doing the disservice. OK. I guess this place prefers wild rampant inaccurate speculation. Thankfully this will get settled on the field. This place eats a lot of crow. This is why.

He has averaged 94.3 mph in his starts in the majors and has numerous pitches in the 96-98 range. And I don't know where this lack of movement on his fastball comes from. And what PITCH f/x says about Peralta. '' This thought that Woodruff's fastball lacks movement, especially less than Peralta is one of the more ridiculous things I've seen. It's certainly no secret that Peralta has unreal movement that Woodruff can nowhere near match. The players themselves both on the Brewers and opposing teams have commented on Peralta's silly movement. Yet you call the notion "ridiculous". OK.

Again I think people are being fooled by Woodruff the multi inning reliever and Woodruff the starter. As a starter he's not throwing 97 like he is out of the pen. And since his fastball doesn't move like a Peralta's does, he's more in need of that 3rd pitch being a good one. A straight fastball at 94-95 and a slider isn't going to cut it facing MLB hitters mulitple times. He really needs to changeup to become an effective pitch. I still believe it can.

I get why people choose not to read much into it. I clearly do choose to put some stock into it. They tried Woodruff as a starter and didn't come back to him when there was a clear need midseason. That says a lot. I believe because they saw the same number I keep citing. Woodruff doesn't YET have an EFFECTIVE 3rd offering to keep hitters off balance. The used him out of the pen because he didn't need to use the change in relief. They promptly made sure not to let him get into trouble a 2nd time through. I point out these things not to diminish Woodruff as a prospect. He some improvement on his changeup away from being on par with Peralta and Burnes. I prefer they keep all 3 of Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff. Lots of misinformation and misunderstanding of these two that I keep seeing and trying to add to the discussion with a more accurate and complete picture.

Peralta's changeup would be a 4th pitch. Peralta already effectively uses his curve as a 3rd offering. Peralta's #1 and #2 pitches are two dramatically different acting fastballs. One a 4-seamer, one a cutter. Both with a ton of movement. He throws them both equally. On the stat sheet they both count as fastballs which appears to have confused you and clearly has fooled many into thinking his curve is his 2nd and only other offering. Woodruff has not had success with his change which is his 3rd pitch nor has he had success a 2nd time through an order. Peralta had had success a 2nd and 3rd time through.

In terms of sharing facts, you should note Eye Black's stats on Woodruff's 3rd pitch. FB and Slider were his heavy two, but he was still throwing 11% change ups. By comparison, Kershaw's third pitch averages about 13%. True but you'd have to look at the numbers of how batters fared hitting that changeup. As I've said before every pitcher has the ability to throw 3,4, even 5 pitches. But if hitters tee off on any of them they're not effective pitches. I'd love to see the numbers yielded on Woodruff's change. Just because a Kershaw and a Woodruff throw their 3rd pitch approximately the same percentage of time does not mean with the same result or effectiveness. The fact is Woodruff's opponent OPS is .889 the second time batters get to face him. That's a problem he must overcome. In relief, not only was Woodruff able to throw harder, he was able to get away with sticking to his two best pitches. Neither the velocity nor the ability to beat batters with those 2 pitches has held up beyond relief. All hope is not lost. Either we've got a kick ass mulit-inning reliever or initial out getter on our hands or Woodruff continues to develop and we've got something more. Peralta's advantages are youth, movement on his pitches, effectively having 3 different pitches with his 2 very different-acting fastballs in addition to his curve, and having shown the ability to get batters out 2 even 3 times through a batting order.

Very true but you'd be surprised at scouting staff discussions with some teams where people would be adamant about Lutz being in a deal. Who knows if that's the case with the Marlins, but if my uncle's scouting staff were still in Miami, he'd be insisting on him in a Realmuto deal. Heck, Lutz probably would have been targeted in the Yelich deal in place of Diaz if they were still there when that trade was made. Reason: Exit Velocity Off the Bat - that's a trait Hiura and Lutz share where the gulf between them isn't as massive as you think. Lutz is simply younger and will have to prove it at higher levels like Hiura has. But the speed at which the ball comes off his bat would lead plenty of scouts to literally getting into yelling matches for him. That combo of bat speed and squaring pitches up is what makes these guys drool. 2019 goal for Lutz will be better feel for the strike zone. Given the hard contact he makes, there's plenty of reason for optimism that he will improve in that area.