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True Blue Brew Crew

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Everything posted by True Blue Brew Crew

  1. True Blue Brew Crew
    Legit question...if Woodruff and Burnes are given next season to be SP, are they as good as say Kyle Freeland by the end of next season? None of Burnes, Woodruff, or Perlata will be counted on to be that good by next season's end. But one of them very well might be that good by then. Maybe even two.
  2. True Blue Brew Crew
    And people think the Brewers need to unload the farm for a TOR? They have their future TORs.
  3. True Blue Brew Crew
    Now the Rockies are forced to time up a fresh look, while the Brewers likely get Senzatela for at least 1 more inning. And since Burnes might have more than just one pitch working for him today, he might be tougher to face than Woodruff. Shaping up nicely.
  4. True Blue Brew Crew
  5. True Blue Brew Crew
    Woodruff only had his fastball today and even the pitcher was starting to time it up. A second time through would likely have been ugly.
  6. True Blue Brew Crew
    Based on what I'm seeing with Senzatela and with a likely pinch hitter followed by Cain/Yelich, I'm expecting the Brewers to get on the board in the bottom half of the 3rd. Just need 1 more zero from Woodruff.
  7. True Blue Brew Crew
    In the first inning, Senzatela obviously had no feel for his offspeed stuff. If that continues, it bodes very well for the Brewers batters. He's a guy that wins on breaking pitches, not his fastball.
  8. True Blue Brew Crew
    100% true, no one can. The best analytics and math can never ensure an outcome. But I can tell you as certain fact, the math says - if you can't have your best pitcher pitch in 162 games, you'll get the most value using him in the ones you have a lead and keeping him out of the ones you're losing. The best any pitcher can do is hold the other team at zero additional runs. No pitcher has the ability to take runs already scored off the board. If you have to pick and choose when to use your best bullets, use them in situations where no matter what your offense does the rest of the way, you can still win. Using Hader in games the Brewers trail, where the odds still say they're more likely to lose, is not the best allotment of innings. You can't say this at all. You get the most value out him by maximizing the inning he pitches at a highly effective level. For example, if Hader was on the Orioles and only had 40 appearances this season it would not be the most valuable usage of him. I can also say with 100% certainty that you're allowed to look at it in whatever way you want. More power to you. Go Brewers! I'll add that I've seen a printout of the math and the numbers back up Counsell's approach with holding Hader back from games their losing. I also know that people will believe and are entitled to believe that the math is wrong.
  9. True Blue Brew Crew
    100% true, no one can. The best analytics and math can never ensure an outcome. But I can tell you as certain fact, the math says - if you can't have your best pitcher pitch in 162 games, you'll get the most value using him in the ones you have a lead and keeping him out of the ones you're losing. The best any pitcher can do is hold the other team at zero additional runs. No pitcher has the ability to take runs already scored off the board. If you have to pick and choose when to use your best bullets, use them in situations where no matter what your offense does the rest of the way, you can still win. Using Hader in games the Brewers trail, where the odds still say they're more likely to lose, is not the best allotment of innings.
  10. True Blue Brew Crew
    As someone who's obviously higher on Peralta than anyone here, I'll readily admit my opinion has been shaped/warped by a relative who is a retired MLB scout and head scout for two franchises. He's as demonstratively passionate about Freddy Peralta as any player I've ever heard him discuss. I've shared some of the reasons why, his dominance vs RHB, his deception, etc. He makes major league hitters look silly in a way not often seen. And as for the control, Peralta has shown tremendous control as he has been given time to settle in at a given level. Peralta has been pushed very aggressively so he hasn't had many opportunities to get comfortable. When he has, his control has followed. The other affirming aspect of all this is the fact the team is clearly higher on him than most here. I keep saying things, like don't be surprised if he's a fixture in the 2019 rotation, don't be surprised if he's on the postseason roster, and don't be surprised if he makes a postseason start. And it appears to me that all of these things will come to fruition. My relative said he'd definitely have a role on this year's playoff team and he looks sure to be right. So with a scout in my ear and the team making moves to back it up, I have a very rational reason to be high on this kid. If anything I'm holding back on some things I've been told. People didn't even want to put him on the postseason roster. I'd be run off the board if I shared more.
  11. True Blue Brew Crew
    Um you do not know that. Maybe that is a great hypothesis, but you cannot be sure You're right, there's no way to prove how things would've worked out differently had CC used his best guys more in games the Brewers trailed. Sometimes the only means to quantify different scenarios is with common sense. The Brewers wound up winning their last 8 games and finished with the most NL wins by a razor thin margin. Those final 8 games included 5 that were decided by 2 runs or less. The bullpen has been outstanding in September and a big reason they won those 8 straight. If the Brewers bullpen had been used differently and not been somewhat managed/limited throughout the season, do you think they win all 8 games? Because they needed every one of them. We've seen previous managers use the best arms throughout the season in games the Brewers trailed but were close. Those teams had a recurring theme of having the bullpen fade towards the end of the season. It's up to each individual to decide if there's a correlation. To some it's obvious. To others its not.
  12. True Blue Brew Crew
    True, but during the course of a season, CC does make some head scratching decisions, that can not be argued. He is not untouchable, and questioning certain moves is ok to do as a fan. Absolutely. One of the most hotly contested debates about Counsell was his usage of relievers based on being ahead or behind on the scoreboard. His philosophy is spot on analytically and mathematically but it's hard for people to accept. In many people's minds he's waving the white flag even when down a run. In truth, since you can't use guys like Hader and Jeffress every day, it makes more sense mathematically to save them for the games you have the lead. And the way they locked down games they led late, and how well the key guys have held up late in the season shows he handled them correctly. Arizona had a season recently where their record was something like 20 games better than their Pythagorean. It was because they refused to use their best relievers in games they were trailing. Drove fans nuts, but it worked. Much the same happened here. That's 100% the manager's call. Other managers would have done things differently. It likely would've led a burnt out bullpen.
  13. True Blue Brew Crew
    Senzatela has been pitching the best he has all year in his last 3 starts. Key has been upping the use of his curveball and changeup dramtically. His ability to throws those 2 pitches effectively and the Brewers ability to hit offspeed offerings will be the key to their offensive output.
  14. True Blue Brew Crew
    No one can tell me managers don't matter when the whole world knew it was a bad idea to play Mark Kotsay in CF or start a clearly out of gas Shaun Marcum in the 2011 playoffs. Yet Ron Roenicke made those choices. We can see clearly today that Craig Counsell wouldn't make those same decisions.
  15. True Blue Brew Crew
    Peralta is the likely initial out getter in Colorado for game 3.
  16. True Blue Brew Crew
    I'd like to see Eduardo Escobar brought in as a 2B where his glove is way above average and the bat plays very, very well. The range of Arcia and Escobar up the middle would be a sight to behold. Move on from Moustakas and Schoop.
  17. True Blue Brew Crew
    You need to relax guy.
  18. True Blue Brew Crew
    I do remember your high praise of Freddy Peralta as a prospect, props are in order. Interestingly though, here's what you posted on page 1 of this topic... I'll go ahead and take over that "captain's" chair, lol.
  19. True Blue Brew Crew
    Blackmon's splits are pretty similar. Not sure using up a lefty on him is worth it with the other lefties the have on the roster. We'll see I guess. Yeah, I was spoiled by September roster rules. Burning a reliever for one batter in the first inning as a plan is likely out the window.
  20. True Blue Brew Crew
    That's a good point. The initial out-getter is probably someone they'll be looking to get 3-4 innings from. Blackmon is 0-6 with 4K vs Peralta, cough cough.
  21. True Blue Brew Crew
    That sounds more like Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff to me. Use one as the primary out-getter and you've still got the other two for key outs later. Guess it boils down to the way you interpret "as of late".
  22. True Blue Brew Crew
    Charlie Blackmon (LH) is the Rockies leadoff batter so we'll probably see Jennings or Cedeno for 1 batter then give way to one of Peralta, Burnes, or Woodruff. Blackmon doesn't have dramatic splits but he does slug 61 points lower vs LHP.
  23. True Blue Brew Crew
    Charlie Blackmon (LH) is the Rockies leadoff batter so we'll probably see Jennings or Cedeno for 1 batter then give way to one of Peralta, Burnes, or Woodruff. Blackmon doesn't have dramatic splits but he does slug 61 points lower vs LHP.
  24. True Blue Brew Crew
    Are you looking for a pat on the back and a "good job"? I think most everyone has seen Peralta for what he is ... a very young, inconsistent guy with electric stuff and a potentially solid future. If there is a chance that his perepherals point to the idea that he can be an asset on the NLDS roster, he'll be on it. I'm not going to lose sleep if he doesn't make the roster, though. If he does, I imagine he's one of the final guys, unless they plan on starting him in one of the first four games. See, that's not necessary. Not at all. I'm admittedly expressing frustration that a week ago I couldn't even generate a response to the idea that Peralta should be on the 25 man, much less get a start. No replies, no one putting him on the 25-man. And now today he's appearing everywhere like it's a revelation. He's Hader-level dominant vs RHB like I said a week ago when it seemed to have no impact. There has to be a use for that. We'll see soon and I can't wait.
  25. True Blue Brew Crew
    It's all about matchups. Peralta matches up much better with the Rockies than he would with the Cubs. Yeah, been saying that for weeks. If I'm not mistaken, the Rockies have been a possible matchup for quite some time. Yet, Peralta was noticeably absent from everyone's 25 man. Now, all of the sudden without any announcement from the team or push from the media, something has changed. Just an observation. I've been pushing those matchup numbers, his dominance vs RHB, and what I'm hearing from those in the know for weeks now. It seems like some of it stuck. It's simply interesting that a guy everyone was ignoring is magically being added in everyone's predictions without an explanation for the change in heart.
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