monty57

We've just had three contracts valued over $200MM and had the most expensive contract ever for a RHP and there's no inflation? Yes there are always big contracts, but now they're bigger... that's inflation. Inflation in baseball is much higher than the inflation normal folks deal with. Without doing any "scientific research," I think you're correct that baseball salaries seem to act in a "jump and then level" cycle. We're currently in a "jump" phase of the cycle, probably due to a lot of new TV and internet money being infused into the system. GM's and owners know the money will be coming, so they're busy spending it. Once that money's spent, salaries will probably level out until the next wave of new money enters the system. If I were a GM, I'd try to do everything I could to obtain the one cost controlled asset out there, which is pre-arby players. I would then extend the good ones to "Lucroy-type" deals, which don't seem to have inflated too much yet. Once the "level" period starts, other GM's will realize they're stuck with bad contracts and GM's with financial flexibility will be able to steal some good players simply by agreeing to relieve the "stuck" GMs of a portion of the contract. The Brewers are actually in a pretty good position to do this, but I doubt they will.

I've only got a minute, but Daniel Hudson (along with lhp David Holmberg) was traded just after those rumors to Arizona for Edwin Jackson, so I believe that one was true. Last year, two years of Ubaldo Jiminez was traded at the deadline for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White and two others. A couple months of Michael Bourn brought in Jordan Schafer and others. A couple months of Furcal got the Dodgers Alex Castellanos, and the Cards traded Colby Rasmus to get Edwin Jackson. Probably the most notable was the Giants trading top prospect Zach Wheeler for a couple months of Carlos Beltran. They may not be exact matches to what 1 - 1.5 years of Hart would bring, but teams do trade young players for veteran "rentals" when they're shooting for the playoffs.

Well, we may be "fearing them" in our fight for last place, but I'm mostly looking at how teams will fare relative to the Brewers. Theo has brought in some good young players and has realized that he's not winning the division this year, so he's put his players "up for sale" early in hopes of maximizing the return. By trading their "chips" this year, he will add more talent to the system. Some of this talent will live up to their potential, and since most of his team will be cheap, he will have a lot of money (like $100MM) in reserve to upgrade his needs. Meanwhile the Brewers are talking like they're not going to sell, which will leave them with over $50MM tied up in seven players, a handful of guys in arby, and little pre-arby talent to fill in the holes without a lot of money to spend. We're potentially heading downwards quickly while the rest of the division (with the possible exception of the Cards who are old but do have multiple top prospects) are heading upwards. We're not that far ahead of the Cubs right now, so it won't take much more downward movement by us or upward movement by them to put us in last place over the next few years.

If we trade him prior to next season, the receiving team would get comp picks for him. Getting Hart for a playoff run and then getting an extra 1st rounder and sandwich pick is worth quite a bit. We may just hold him for the picks, but we're probably not going to the playoffs next year and we could use some upper-minors prospects, so I'd trade him. Melvin was apparently offered Daniel Hudson for one year of Prince. If I recall correctly, Beckham's name was being thrown around as well, but he insisted on getting two top-of-the-rotation guys with some MLB experience, which is a steep price for anyone, and there aren't many teams who want to pick up a one-year player who can also trade away 2/5 of their starting rotation. I also believe he was offered one of the Braves' young pitchers (Beachy?) for Hart when he was going to be a free agent before signing him to the extension, and I don't remember which one (Fielder or Hart) was involved in when Matt Cain was rumored to be dangled to the Brewers. When he couldn't get two young, MLB-proven starting pitchers for Prince, he extended Hart and traded our farm system for two years of Grienke and Marcum and a shot at the World Series, leading us to where we are now. I'm not expecting two aces for Hart, I'd be happy with something like Delgado from the Braves who have too many young pitchers and may like Hart's bat for a playoff run or two. P.S. Just looking at the deals I just mentioned for a minute (and his trading Lawrie for Marcum) makes me think Melvin really overvalues MLB-proven guys and undervalues prospects.

signing bonuses for draft picks do not reflect in your overall salary total for a team. that money comes from a budget set aside for the draft. Right, but the money comes from the same revenue pool, so if the budget set aside for the draft is $10MM more than normal, there will be $10MM less somewhere else. The vendors and electric company aren't going to take cuts, so the money probably has to either come out of MLB payroll or owner profits or they could borrow it, taking it out of future budgets. If I'm not mistaken, ownership can take losses on stadium depreciation, and a variety of other things, to offset cash coming in. They are a limited partnership, so I believe profits and losses should be passed directly to the owners' personal taxes in direct proportion to ownership interest. (i.e. if someone owns 25% of the team, they get 25% of the team's profits or losses attributed to their personal taxes) I don't believe that it has anything to do with insolvency though. I'm sure the Brewers are doing fine, but any company which loses enough money over time will go bankrupt. Guaranteed contracts and the "thrill of the game" can lead to bad decisions crippling a franchise for an extended period, and has led to teams going bankrupt (I don't know the circumstances, but the Rangers were just bought out of bankruptcy and the Diamondbacks always seem to be teetering on bankruptcy).

but I don't fear them in the least based on their past track record. How about "based on their past track record plus the fact that they could have a $150MM+ payroll when the time comes to start spending, with little of that money committed to long-term deals?" Maybe they'll act foolishly, but they seem to be starting out the right way, and so far the Chicago fans seem to be accepting of it. They have a grace period to allow Theo to implement his strategy, so we'll see if it works.

I've said that I believe we'll get better than the comp pick value in return. A return better than our top two draft picks this year would be pretty good. I think there's a shot he could land a top 10 prospect, but it would probably take the perfect situation (why I've mentioned Texas already having a good, young SS on the MLB team and having lost the last two World Series so maybe they're really, really eager to win one). Even if he can't bring back an "elite" prospect, I think he could absolutely bring a Top 50 prospect back from a team vying for a playoff spot. Top 50 could equate to a top of the rotation starter or All-Star caliber position player. If it's closer to #50 than #10, he may even bring another very good prospect. I still think that if we could add several Top 100 prospects (hopefully a good young SP or two and a good young SS) in trade for Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod, and Hart then we have a chance at being competitive in the coming years. If we hold tight and "go for it" this year, I don't see us being competitive for a while.

I believe with Rizzo, any haul they may get for Dempster, Garza, Casto, Marmol or soto they'll have an ELITE system in short order. I worry about everyone, there isn't a bad farm system in the division and there are plenty of solid front office people doing good things. Yeah, the Cubs are looking to have a pretty good system in the not-too-distant future, the Pirates took advantage of paying over slot value while the rule existed and they've got a lot of young talent in the system (including the MLB level), the Reds have locked up some stars and have a lot of talent in the system and the Cardinals are old but have some really good prospects coming up. That leaves the Brewers with a below average farm system, very little young, cheap talent on the MLB roster and a lot of money tied up in a few players for the next few seasons. Melvin's got his work cut out for him.

I think keeping him for another year/the draft picks are worth more than anything he would bring back for a half season. That's the key. If we decide to sell, we need to figure out who we would be willing to offer the one-year deal to after the season. I think that's Greinke and Marcum, so we should not trade either of them for less than the value of the draft picks (minus the signing bonus cost). For players like K-Rod, Loe, Veras, etc, we're losing them for nothing, so the value in return just has to be better than the value of having the player on the team for the rest of the year. If we could get someone who could be a bench bat or middle reliever for a few seasons, or if we could get a high-risk/high-reward A-baller, we should do the deal. Again, this is only if we decide to sell. Who knows, saving $6MM or so by unloading K-Rod, Loe & Veras may be what allows us to afford someone decent this offseason.

I don't limit "young" to "minor leaguer." If there is a pre-arby guy who makes sense, that would work. I just don't see any sense in trading a 30-year-old OF with one year on his contract for a 30-year-old SS with one year on his contract. In the "post-steroid era," I'm getting leery of anyone who is much past 30, and I hope the Brewers stop signing contracts which guarantee to pay players big money into their mid-30's. If we trade Hart prior to next season, the receiving team would be able to get comp picks for him, so we should be able to get a good young player back for him. I don't see us being a good bet for the playoffs next year, so I would take six years of a good young player (starting at league minimum) for one year of Hart. If the player is good enough, we could extend him to a "Lucroy-type" deal, getting an extra year or two of service. Or, we could flip him in four or five years for another good young prospect.

just going by what the team owner says. he has said he lost money on the team last year and was completely fine with that to be in the playoffs, but a team owner is not going to lose money on a team that wins 75 games. If they do not make the playoffs, or even make .500, next year could be very interesting, especially with talks about wanting to keep Greinke. I don't doubt the payroll will go down. I believe Attanasio/Melvin said the budget going into this year was supposed to be around $90MM, and that was for a "playoff year." That changed when K-Rod accepted arby, pushing this year's payroll around $100MM. I just don't think we can field any kind of a competitive team for $70-80MM next year unless we "sell" this year. The thoughts of going for it this year and then trying to remain competitive next year with $30MM less in payroll don't coincide. Add that the comp picks we'd get for Greinke and Marcum would add another $6MM or so in signing bonuses, and Melvin won't have much money to fill in all the holes we'll have in the roster this offseason. I'm curious, was this in a recent interview? If so, Attanasio may be starting the "spin" before selling... "we're willing to lose money for the playoffs, but not if we aren't going to make the playoffs" sounds kind of like "we're going to save a lot of money by trading expensive guys who we'd lose anyway, and we'll pick up inexpensive, young talent who will fill out the roster for league minimum salary so we can have a $70MM payroll for a few years until we're playoff ready again." First step was to let the fans know we made a good effort to extend Greinke. Second step is to get people to understand that this is an owner who is willing to lose money for the playoffs. Third step will be to let the fans know without a doubt that we are going to lose a lot of talented free agents at the end of the year. Finally, we'll hear that we had a playoff roster going into the season, but injuries (probably won't throw Weeks and others under the bus) derailed our chance at the playoffs, so rather then lose the players to free agency (remember we really tried to sign them) we will trade them for some exciting prospects who will allow us to remain competitive. Then the Brewers' brass will go into their office, crack a bottle of Canadian Club and hope that (A) the prospects pan out and (B) fans buy the "spin" enough to continue to purchase tickets. If enough season tickets are sold early, Melvin may be able to make a "splash" and sign a name people will recognize on the free agent market.

The Brewers will get two picks for Greinke if they don't trade him, so the minimum return would have to be better than the projected value of those two picks minus the cost of signing them. The Brewers will not trade Greinke for some mid-tier prospects... if he's traded it will be for a top prospect, multiple good prospects, and/or "proven" MLB player(s). That "top prospect" may or may not be Profar/Machado level (two of the top prospects in the minors), but in my opinion it would at least have to be a Top 50 guy. The reason I have some hope for a Profar/Machado-type lies pretty much solely on the hope that Texas/Baltimore get so excited about the chance of winning a World Series (or in Baltimore's case winning the division) that they are willing to forego some of their future in order to win now.

This last off season, Cuddyer (who is 33) got $11.5 million a year for three years. Ethier just got a five year deal - $17 million a year, covering ages 31-35. Am I wrong to put Hart between those two - but closer to Cuddyer? I'd say Hart is closer to (or even better than) Ethier. If Hart is extended, it would likely be for a minimum of $15MM/year, and we'll have to see what happens this offseason, but I'd guess it would take more than $15MM/year. You could, of course, look to deal Hart for young (and cheap) talent. This is probably the route I'd go. I don't know if it's the new TV deals coming in or what, but GM's around the league are on a spending spree and the price tag on veteran players is skyrocketing. If we could get a good, young pre-arby guy for Hart and extend him to a "Lucroy-type" deal then I think we'd be better off long-term.

Mark A has already said that payroll over 90 million is not sustainable for this franchise, that last year and this year are extreme opportunities, and Rickie will be making 11 million for 3 more years. so when payroll returns to reality in milwaukee in the coming seasons (70-80 mil), his contract will most definitely be an albatross. 2013 Committments: Weeks $10MM, Ramirez $10MM, Braun $8.5MM, Aoki $1.25MM, Gallardo $7.75MM, Hart $10MM, Lucroy $1.9MM, Wolf $1.5MM(?) buyout If we go to $70-80MM, that means we'd have $20-30MM for 18 players, seven of whom could be in arbitration (Axford, Gomez, Ishikawa, Kottaras, Morgan, Narveson, Parra) and not a lot of top-line talent in pre-arby. We'd have to rebuild our starting rotation and bullpen plus find a SS all for around $10-15MM. I can't think we'd even pretend to be competitive in this scenario. Unless we really lose season ticket sales and go into full rebuild mode, I think we'll at least have a payroll in the $80MM's, but even so it is pretty important for all the guys in the top line (Weeks, Ramirez, Braun, Aoki, Gallardo, Hart, Lucroy) to remain productive. I don't think he will, but if Weeks hits as poorly over the course of his contract as he has this season he will definitely be an "albatross" for the Brewers for the next few years.

Hart's trade value has to go up when deals like this are signed: 1) Any GM looking at options for upgrading RF/1B, will realize that they can either pay 5 years / $85MM on the open market or they could trade for Hart at a much cheaper rate. 2) There's depletion as other good RF's are signed to long-term deals there is a smaller supply of RF's available for an "upgrade." However, every day that goes by Hart's value goes down as that's one less day he could be on the receiving team's roster. By the time we're may to "shop" Hart (this offseason), he will only have one year of service time remaining and there will be new names added to the supply. Ethier's deal shows how much inflation we've seen in baseball in a relatively short period. This deal is pretty much par for the course in today's market, but it makes Hart's deal look like an absolute steal. It's also why guys like Greinke are licking their chops about how much they'll get in free agency.

I'm in the minority, but I think $85 million over 5 years is about right for Ethier. No, I'm with you. Due to recent salary escalation, players like Eithier are now getting $17MM / year, while superstars are getting well over $20MM/year. That means if the Brewers want to continue to build like they have the past few seasons, they will need a much bigger payroll then they can probably sustain. We need to get back to growing our talent on the farm and start trading some guys away when they still have some team control to continue to have a lot of pre-arby/arby guys playing key roles. I guess a good thing about it is that the $30MM we'll still owe Ramirez after this season may seem reasonable enough that someone might trade for him.

The problem with big inflows of "new money" is that salaries go up, squeezing teams like the Brewers who don't have as much money. Now the entire expected increase in revenues from the TV deal will buy one above average (but not superstar) corner OF. There is no way Corey Hart would sign his deal today, so any future deals will be that much harder to sign. We are currently in a period of massive inflation in Major League Baseball, making pre-arby guys much more valuable.

There are a couple of reasons the Tigers may be in a different situation than the Brewers: The first, and the reason I think the Brewers need to have a quick trigger finger this year, is the amount of talent the Brewers will lose to free agency after this season. The Brewers either have to make the playoffs this season or sell. Missing the playoffs and then losing so many free agents "for nothing" will not sit well with fans and would probably mean a lot less tickets sold next year, which would mean less revenue, which would mean less money for free agents and therefore a greater need for young talent where we are currently pretty thin. The second is that while our owner wants to win now, their owner has to win now. He admittedly wants to win a World Series before he dies, and he doesn't think he has too many years left. Of course, I may be wrong, and the Tigers may decide to stand pat and hold onto their prospects, but I wouldn't count them out as suitors if we were to decide to sell.

Yeah, and we'd have to pay Greinke the rest of this season. You're probably looking at saving around $9-10MM for Greinke and $6-7MM for Marcum if we trade them for prospects rather than letting them pitch out the season and offering the one year deal to get the comp picks. Honestly, I kind of doubt we have enough money to sign our #1 & 2 plus two #1's and two comp picks from Greinke and Marcum. That's three #1's and two comp picks to go along with the rest of our draft. Our late-first-round picks this year were around $1.7-1.9MM each, so we'd probably be spending around $10MM just to sign our top five picks. If the Brewers let both Greinke and Marcum walk, they had better have 'enough money' to sign the resultant draft picks. Such a thing may have happened under the waning days of the shoestring Selig era, but I expect more now. I probably stated that poorly. Melvin & Co have done a good job of signing their top picks, so I'm sure they'll reserve money for the draft. However, it's just an angle I hadn't thought too much of that will need to be considered while putting a team together for 2013. If they need to reserve several extra million dollars more than normal for the draft, that will need to come out of some other part of the budget, and that will probably be MLB team payroll.

Yeah, and we'd have to pay Greinke the rest of this season. You're probably looking at saving around $9-10MM for Greinke and $6-7MM for Marcum if we trade them for prospects rather than letting them pitch out the season and offering the one year deal to get the comp picks. Honestly, I kind of doubt we have enough money to sign our #1 & 2 plus two #1's and two comp picks from Greinke and Marcum. That's three #1's and two comp picks to go along with the rest of our draft. Our late-first-round picks this year were around $1.7-1.9MM each, so we'd probably be spending around $10MM just to sign our top five picks.

If Texas is looking to buy but won't give up Profar ...then they can pound sand. IF, and that's a big if, I'd be willing to trade Greinke, you had better believe that the other team's number one prospect is the starting point. Why help Texas out by taking secondary prospects and/or fringe major leaguers? My bare minimum is that the return has to be greater than the perceived value of the comp picks we'd receive + the value of Greinke's remaining a Brewer for the remainder of the season minus the cost of paying Greinke and signing the comp picks. If a team's "other" prospects meet this qualification, then I'm fine trading him for the "other" prospects. If not, then we should just hold onto Greinke. And if you'd be so thrilled to get Profar, why the argument? Really the epitome of arguing semantics about him being a "once in a generation type player." I wasn't arguing anything. I said he looks good, but there's still a chance he could fail as is the case with pretty much anyone we'd trade for. I then threw in an afterthought which I said was a matter of semantics. I didn't mention you, in fact I was just thinking that I had heard the phrase "once in a generation player" used over and over again on MLB Network and ESPN, so I just pondered that maybe it's being overused. I didn't really think it was too big of a deal. Sorry if my disliking a statement national TV personalities overuse upsets you. I'm sure Profar is "epic," "awesome," and "once in a generation." I'll bet he'll even get a few "Booyah's." Too bad it probably won't happen for the Brewers, as our taking 4 of 6 from the two worst teams in baseball probably ends any speculation of our being sellers this season.

When was draft pick compensation implemented? If teams made mid-season trades before draft-pick compensation existed, they will make them after it's gone.

Nothing personal Gobias, but for Rickie's sake I really hope Russ wins the bet.

it reminds me of what JJ Hardy went through in 2009. Does that mean it's going to take getting sent to the minors and traded twice before he'll remember how to hit? Something's obviously wrong, and I don't know what it'll take to make it better. It's either a lingering injury the Brewers don't want other teams to know about, or it's a mental thing. If it's the latter, he could snap out of it tomorrow, or he could continue to flail away for a long time. Whatever the cause, if he doesn't turn things around he'll be an albatross for the next few years. I have faith that he'll remember how to hit, I just hope it's sooner rather than later.

When Hart's in RF, our current IF OPS is 1B Green (.707), 2B Weeks (.582), 3B Ransom (.561) or Conrad (.400), SS Maysonet (.529), C Maldonado (.558). Has any starting infield ever been worse than that? To make things worse, only Maldonado is really known for being good defensively.