TheAnalytics
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Everything posted by TheAnalytics
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If the season ended today, all 12 playoff teams would be at least 10 games over the .500 mark. No playoff position team is more than 8 games back of the best record. Crazy parity at the top boosted by some terrible bottom-feeding teams
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You get lost trying to find the Rockies site?
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Mears has an 84 xFIP- and 134 Stuff+ this year per Fangraphs, which I’m sure the Brewers are looking at before they worry about his ERA
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Upcoming Brewers milestones & noteworthy things
TheAnalytics replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Since you have the spreadsheet handy, can you look at high water, low water marks since Attanasio bought the team? -
Angels (Detmer) vs Brewers (Burnes): 4/29/23, 6:10pm
TheAnalytics replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Dude has been doing this a decade. His best offensive comp through age 31 is Stan Musial -
Seems like the Pirates have between a one in six and one in four chance of ending up over .500 according to Fangraphs. Feels like they could have some things go right and sneak into the low-mid 80s. Hot start for the Crew has the division at a coin flip going forward.
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You have to think of it as “back of napkin”accounting, which is nice to have on any trade or contract spanning the entirety of the player population. As long as you know the assumptions going in and treat it as a quick and dirty estimate, the tool is awesome. For example, Hader @ $15m = ~2.5 WAR / season * 1.5 seasons * $10m / WAR - ~$21m in salary. All that seems more or less reasonable, even if you want to quibble with the win projection, market rate for wins, or the details of his arbitration case.
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I mean it is an automated model that takes in publicly available information and spits out a valuation for like 5000 players. It is pretty impressive for what it is, but there are going to be holes. Whether the public info is late on Ruiz or there are flaws in the methodology, clearly the market for Ruiz is higher than the model suggests. But the tool is still useful as a first approximation.
