Seth Stohs

There are other examples that kind of stand out. Atlanta added RH RP Michael Tonkin to their 40-man roster a couple of days ago. He turns later this week. The Twins let him go after the 2017 season, and he spent a year in Japan before toiling in the minor leagues since, including 2021 in independent leagues. He was great in AAA Gwinnett this year, but never got called up. Maybe it's the player saying, "I am getting MLB offers from other teams."

Or you have Singleton DH, Tellez and 1B and Hiura playing against lefties in one of those spots.

Or you have Singleton DH, Tellez and 1B and Hiura playing against lefties in one of those spots.

I always wonder about this as well. Why are there so few hitters selected, and generally they are utility types. Aside from there's never enough pitching, I think that it can be a lot easier to evaluate hitters than pitchers. I mean, if you've got a slugging third baseman, you're going to protect him, so he's not going to get drafted. Brice Turang was an easy add. Had he been left unprotected, he might be the first pick of the Rule 5 draft. So I don't know if it's quite as simple as Sam makes it sound, but obviously pitching is key!

I always wonder about this as well. Why are there so few hitters selected, and generally they are utility types. Aside from there's never enough pitching, I think that it can be a lot easier to evaluate hitters than pitchers. I mean, if you've got a slugging third baseman, you're going to protect him, so he's not going to get drafted. Brice Turang was an easy add. Had he been left unprotected, he might be the first pick of the Rule 5 draft. So I don't know if it's quite as simple as Sam makes it sound, but obviously pitching is key!

With the deadline about 90 minutes away, the Brewers announced that they have added infielder Brice Turang and bullpen arm Abner Uribe to their 40-man roster. Then ten minutes before the deadline, they also announced the additions of reliever Cam Robinson and first baseman Jon Singleton. Just before the 5:00 central time deadline, the Brewers announced that, in addition to adding RH RP Abner Uribe and infielder Brice Turang to their 40-man roster, they will also be adding relief Cam Robinson and first baseman Jon Singleton. Turang is the son of a former big leaguer and has consistently moved up the organizational ladder since the Brewers made him their first-round draft pick in 2018 out of high school in Corona, California. He spent the entire 2022 season at Triple-A Nashville. He will turn 23 years old this weekend. Uribe, on the other hand, made just two appearances for Double-A Biloxi in early April before his season came to an end. He did return and pitched for Glendale in the Arizona Fall League and pitched well enough, and proved himself healthy enough for the Brewers to feel comfortable adding him. Robinson was drafted in 2017 and had his struggles early, but he broke out in 2022. He pitched well at both Wisconsin and Biloxi before ending the season at Triple-A Nashville. He's got potentially dominant stuff that could work out of the bullpen. The surprise may be the addition of slugger Jon Singleton. He spent all of 2022 with Nashville and provided a lot of homers and a lot of strikeouts. At the end of the World Series, he became a free agent but quickly re-signed with the Brewers. Now today he has been added to the big-league roster. Considering his past in the game, this does sure have the makings a really special human interest story by March! There are several players that are now at risk of being selected in the Rule 5 draft including infields Felix Valerio and Eduardo Garcia, outfielder Carlos Rodriguez, pitchers Victor Castaneda, Justin Jarvis and others. What do you think about the Brewers additions? Which prospects are you most concerned that the team could lose? View full article

In the final part of this three-part series, Seth chats with Brewers left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Knarr about his circuitous path to pro baseball, his development, and his fantastic 2022 season. He began the season with High-A Wisconsin before jumping to Double-A Biloxi. Combined, he went 11-8 with a 2.83 ERA. He had 152 strikeouts and 47 walks over an impressive 146 1/3 innings pitched. We will discuss his background in the game, signing with the Brewers, and his daily routines and preparation for each start. View full video

In the third and final part of our Brewers Spotlight on left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Knarr, we discuss topics such as analytics, training techniques, and being part of a really exciting organization with a perennial playoff contender with some very exciting prospects waiting in the wings too. In Part 1 of our conversation with Brewers pitching prospect Brandon Knarr, we discussed his youth, growing up in Pennsylvania and becoming a great high school player, going Division 1 and then heading to a top junior college. In Part 2, he joined another national powerhouse at the University of Tampa. Unfortunately, that talented squad saw their season cut short by a global pandemic. Speaking of 'cut short,' that 2020 draft was reduced to just five rounds. When he wasn't drafted, Knarr had several strong offers and discussed what made the Milwaukee Brewers the choice for him. In the third and final part of our conversation today, we simply tie up some loose ends to the conversation. Find out how Knarr feels about the plethora of analytics and technology at his fingertips in the Brewers system. Not only that, but how he is able to sift through it all and work with his coaches to find areas for improvement or consistency. "I just enjoy baseball. So when you have baseball, and then you have more information about baseball, and that information is also about yourself, if ends up being a lot of fun." Knarr continued, "Especially during the season, it's the constant of this is where we want this to be, this is where it performs best. You have to go out there and try it. You have to go out there and have the trust to try what you want to do. Maybe it's a usage on a pitch. Maybe it's a different grip. Maybe it's a different feel." Along that same vein, he has headed to the Florida Baseball ARMory where he received some tips and tricks that may look funny to some, but if it's helping, it's great! Knarr said, "It's only weird if it doesn't work. If it looks weird and it accomplishes what you want it to accomplish, then it doesn't matter." The Brewers had a very nice 2020 draft season. They took Garrett Mitchell in the first round, and he contributed to the big-league club down the stretch. Joey Wiemer was a fourth-round pick and he reached Triple-A. Freddy Zamora (2nd) and Zavier Warren both reached Double-A by season's end. Warren has had a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League. Hayden Cantrelle was their fifth round pick. He was traded to Atlanta in the Alex Jackson trade, and later dealt to the Giants for reliever Luke Williams. Along with Knarr, right-handed pitcher TJ Shook and infielder Noah Campbell were also signed following the draft. They also reached Double-A by the end of this 2022 season. "It's surreal to think where everybody is, and how far we've all come. It's a very tight-knit group among these guys because we've played together for at least parts of two seasons." Certainly hope that you have enjoyed this three-part series of interviews with lefty Brandon Knarr. Please feel free to leave feedback on the series, or be sure to congratulate Knarr or ask him some questions. If you have other Brewers prospects you would like to see put under The Spotlight, let us know. View full article

In Part 2 of this Brewers Spotlight interview with Brewers left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Knarr. In this installment, we discuss his brief time at the University of Tampa, his decision to sign with Milwaukee instead of some bigger-market teams, what he did during Covid, his 2022 season, and some discussion of his plan for the offseason. In Part 1 of our chat with Brewers left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Knarr, we talked about his youth, growing up in baseball, his high school career, and his time at the College of Central Florida where he really developed. That's where we start Part 2 of our conversation. After his strong junior college season, he stayed in Florida and joined the University of Tampa. The team won the Division 2 National Championship the year he committed, and frankly, they may have had a better team in 2020. Knarr did make six starts before Covid shut down the season. He went 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA. In 35 1/3 innings, he had 64 strikeouts to go with just nine walks. Unfortunately, the season was cut short and so was the MLB Draft. It was just five rounds, and while Knarr heard from some teams, he did not hear his name called in the draft. However, after the draft, he listened to several offers, but you will definitely want to listen to his reasoning for choosing the Milwaukee Brewers over the Yankees and some other organizations. We discussed his first seasons as a pro pitcher. He began 2022 in Wisconsin and went 7-1 with a 1.57 ERA in 10 starts. In 16 starts at Double-A Biloxi, he went 4-6 with a 3.64 ERA. Combined, he threw 146 1/3 innings and struck out 152 batters. You will enjoy hearing about his impressive pitch-mix. Find out what he has done with his breaking ball to make it more effective. Part 2 with Brandon Knarr is really interesting. Knarr does a great job of articulating his career, but also what he tries to do on the mound, and what he tries to do before and between starts. In Part 3 later this week, we'll talk with Knarr about his upcoming offseason, analytics, and much more. Please feel free to leave some comments and ask some questions in the Comments below. View full article

In the second part of this three-part series, Seth chats with Brewers left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Knarr about his circuitous path to pro baseball, his development, and his fantastic 2022 season. He began the season with High-A Wisconsin before jumping to Double-A Biloxi. Combined, he went 11-8 with a 2.83 ERA. He had 152 strikeouts and 47 walks over an impressive 146 1/3 innings pitched. We will discuss his background in the game, signing with the Brewers, and his daily routines and preparation for each start. View full video

That is correct, and the goal would be to front load it enough to be able to keep the last years down a little too.

That is correct, and the goal would be to front load it enough to be able to keep the last years down a little too.

Left-handed pitcher Brandon Knarr pitched very well in Wisconsin and Biloxi in 2022. Recently, he joined us for a three-part Brewers Spotlight. In Part 1 today, we hear about growing up in Pennsylvania, learning a pitch from a Hall of Famer, his hitting ability, spending a season at Notre Dame and a big year at the College of Central Florida. Brandon Knarr had a strong breakout season in 2022, split between the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers and the Biloxi Shuckers. He’s got a terrific mix of pitches. In fact, he actually learned how to grip one pitch from a Hall of Famer. Growing up in York, Pennsylvania, just about two hours from Philadelphia, a young Brandon Knarr attended Phillies Phestival with his family. The Phillies won a World Series championship during his formative years. It had to be a fun team for a pre-teen baseball fan to follow. At the event, fans had the opportunity to go through lines and take pictures with players. Knarr was walking through the line to get a photo with Roy Halladay. “My dad ushered me along. During the photo ops, you’re not supposed to take a baseball or anything in. They don’t want you to sign anything. So, I’m going up for my photo, and my dad hands me a baseball and says, ‘Hey, ask him how he throws his sinker.’ So I got through the line, and I asked him - I was so nervous - I’ll never forget. He placed my fingers on the ball, exactly how he throws it. The really funny part was that he showed me on my right hand. I was too nervous to tell him I am a lefty.” At Eastern York High School in eastern Pennsylvania, Brandon Knarr played his high school ball in a ballpark with an incredible mountain view and the Susquehanna River in the backdrop. It was a smaller school, but especially Knarr’s sophomore and junior seasons, they were talented enough to compete with the large schools with much bigger talent pools. Knarr was a solid high school hitter, but he is also self-aware enough to know that pitching was where his future was in baseball. “I was a cage all-star.” The southpaw played in several Perfect Game tournaments, Prep Baseball Report events, and other regional and national events. “I was playing all over, up and down the East Coast.” Out of high school, he attended Notre Dame for one season. He then transferred to the College of Central Florida, one of the best junior college baseball programs in the country, under the tutelage of legendary coach Marty Smith. His assistants included his son Ryan Smith (now the Triple-A hitting coach with the Twins) and Zach Bove (now the assistant minor-league pitching coordinator with the Twins). When Bove left midseason to join the Twins, Brett Merritt became the pitching coach. Following the season, he joined the Red Sox organization. “That team and staff and everything there was like the perfect storm to walk into. I feel very fortunate that I was able to go there when I did.” The staff was just starting to use Rapsodo, and digging into training and development methods. All of that was intriguing to Knarr, and he knew that it would be a good place for him to get better. “From whenever we woke up to whenever we went to bed, there were guys at the field doing something. On any random day, you’d find guys in the cage at eight or nine o’clock at night. It was just a really incredible environment.” The team lost their first game of the season and then went on a school-record winning streak that moved them from unranked to #1 in the country. Listen to Part 1 of our Brewers Spotlight with lefty Brandon Knarr. Later in the week, we’ll discuss his 2020 season at a D2 powerhouse, the shortened draft, and deciding to sign with the Brewers in Part 2. And in Part 3, you can hear him discuss his pitches, his preparation for a game, what he does between starts, how he uses available technology and analytics, his offseason goals, and much more. View full article

In the first part of this three-part series, Seth chats with Brewers left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Knarr about his circuitous path to pro baseball, his development, and his fantastic 2022 season. He began the season with High-A Wisconsin before jumping to Double-A Biloxi. Combined, he went 11-8 with a 2.83 ERA. He had 152 strikeouts and 47 walks over an impressive 146 1/3 innings pitched. We will discuss his background in the game, signing with the Brewers, and his daily routines and preparation for each start. View full video

The Brewers have a lot of very intriguing questions to answer this offseason, and we will try to provide some thoughts on many of the possibilities. Last weekend, we considered the options with Brandon Woodruff. This weekend, we are considering options for the organization to consider as it relates to Corbin Burnes. I think we can all agree that it will be a very interesting off-season for the Milwaukee Brewers. And there are some really difficult decisions for Matt Arnold and Company to consider. Between free agency and potential trades, the front office should be busy. How much will they be able to spend, or will they need to make decisions to reduce salaries? If that’s the case, fans will need to know that there will be some really good, really popular players that could be dealt. Today, we consider what a contract extension with Corbin Burnes might look like. (SPOILER ALERT! Quick summary, in case you need to come back later to see the actual numbers… It’s going to be a bunch of years and a really big dollar value.) Last weekend, we considered what a trade of co-ace Brandon Woodruff might look like as well as what Woodruff might be able to get in a long-term contract extension. Yesterday, Tim considered what the Brewers could get in return for Cy Young Corbin Burnes. So today, the pressure is on me to do a little research and provide Brewers fans with a realistic look at what a long-term contract extension with Burnes might look like Let’s start with the basics. Burnes was drafted in the fourth round of the 2016 draft out of St. Mary’s University. He made his MLB debut in July of 2018 and tossed 30 games out of the Brewers bullpen. In 2019, he went 1-5 with an ERA at 8.82, again, most out of the bullpen. That is the point in which I dropped him from the minor-league roster of my long-time keeper league. He had 243 strikeouts to go with 51 walks. So of course, in 2020, he went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA. In 2021, he went 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA. In 167 innings, he walked 34 and struck out 234 batters on his way to his first Cy Young award. So far, it’s “just” one Cy Young Award, but if healthy, he appears to be a guy who will be a perennial All Star and Cy Young candidate. In 2022, he made a career-high 33 starts (to lead the league) and 202 innings. He was 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA. He has 4.049 years of service time which means he has two years of arbitration left potentially. So in reality, the Brewers (and Burnes) should not feel forced to make a deal, but it is also the ideal time for the Brewers to do this because the closer Burnes gets to free agency, the more likely he will want to hold out for that time when multiple teams will be able to court him. A quick look at his velocities. In 2022, his fastball averaged 96.0 to 96.9 mph. In the past couple of years, the pitch has been coded more often as a cutter and the velocity has been 95.3 and 95.1 mph. His slider has been over 88 mph. His curveball has been between 81 and 82 mph. He even throws a change-up, and it has been right over 90 mph. In other words, the stuff has not changed. According to Fan Graphs, Burnes has been worth 14.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) over the past three seasons, and that includes the Covid-shortened 2020 season (he was a 2.4 WAR pitcher in the 60-game season, which equates to about 6.5 WAR over a full season). In those three seasons, his ‘Value’ has been worth $115.6 million. Again, if you give him a full season for 2020, you can add about $33 million more to that number. So yes, per 162 games, he has been worth just over $50 million per year. Corbin Burnes has been on the Injured List just once. In 2020, he missed time with an oblique injury. In 2021, his Cy Young season, he left one game with a jammed knee but didn’t miss a start. Knock on proverbial wood, but to this point, he has remained healthy. Comparable Contracts Simply, there are not a lot of long-term contracts signed with dominant, Cy Young Award winners with two years of arbitration remaining. So, it is possible that the only decent comparables might be free agents, but that’s not the same. Free agents can talk to multiple teams in their negotiations. That said, those top contracts such as Gerrit Cole’s deal with the Yankees (9 years, $324 million) or Stephen Strasburg’s deal with the Nationals (7 years, $245 million). The Average Annual Value (AAV) of Cole’s deal was $36 million while Strasburg’s was $35 million. Of course, Trevor Bauer also signed before the 2020 season at an AAV of $34 million. Going back five years earlier, Max Scherzer signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with Washington ($30 million per year). The one contract that is probably most similar to this Burnes’ situation might be that of Jacob deGrom. Before the 2019 season, deGrom and the Mets agreed to a five-year, $137.5 million deal. At the time, deGrom was coming off of his first Cy Young season in 2018 and then won his second in 2019. So, he had two more years of arbitration remaining if he wanted to go in that direction. Instead, he signed a deal and received: 2019: $7M, 2020: $23M, 2021: $33.5M, 2022: $33.5M, 2023: $30.5M, 2024: $32.5M (club option). (AAV = $27.5M) As you know, the deal allowed deGrom to opt out after the 2022 season (so we should hear more about that soon). It’s also important to note that nearly half of the contract is deferred. Could that be included in a deal with Burnes? deGrom also received a full no-trade clause. There is one significant difference between deGrom’s extension and a long-term extension with Burnes, if he signs this offseason. Age. 2019 was the first season of deGrom’s deal, and it was his Age-31 season. Burnes will be 28 years old throughout the first season of such a deal. While that doesn’t need to mean more AAV, it could mean extending the contract out. So, let’s get to a proposal I would send to Burnes and his agents and advisors. OK, I’d probably start just a little bit lower in hopes of reaching a deal around this number. Will this be a deal that Brewers management, and ownership, would be comfortable agreeing upon? Age Year Salary 28 2023 $18.00 29 2024 $25.00 30 2025 $28.00 31 2026 $30.00 32 2027 $32.00 opt out 33 2028 $33.00 34 2029 $34.00 35 2030 $35.00 buyout $10M This contract is similar to deGrom’s deal with the Mets. The difference is that it extends longer, and I don’t want to have to consider deferments and such. I do like the idea of options, at least one, at the end of any contract. I really do not like the idea of opt-outs. However, in this case, I am going to add one. I feel like these huge contracts are far riskier for the organization than it is for the player. In this case, I would let Burnes make that decision after five years and $133 million. If he did opt out, he would be giving up the final two years and $77 million. However, if he would opt out, it would be because he could sign a deal for much more than that. If that happens, the Brewers would save that money by not paying a 33-34 year old $77 million when the risk is obviously much higher. The Brewers risk, of course, is that Burnes doesn’t opt out, it would likely mean that either he wasn’t pitching well or was injured. With Opt Out 5 years, $133M Guaranteed 7 years, $210M Up To 8 years, $235M Ultimately, it is the same contract that Max Scherzer signed as a free agent seven years ago. Again, Scherzer was a free agent. He won his first Cy Young Award two years earlier, in his age-28 season with the Tigers. In 2018, he finished fifth in Cy Young voting. He had pitched in his second straight All-Star game. The economics of baseball has grown significantly over the past seven years. I think that two years of arbitration and five years of free agency today could be worth the same as a seven-year contract would have seven years ago. So what do you think? Is this a contract that you would feel comfortable with the Brewers offering Corbin Burnes at this time? If his representation is willing to negotiate from there, awesome. Keep the talks going. If they aren’t willing to even listen to that offer, then Milwaukee should reach out to other teams to see what his trade value is (It will be very, very big). If they’re not happy with the offers, then you offer him arbitration, have him pitch in 2023 for something close to $20 million, and try again next offseason with the same three options. Your turn. What would you do? View full article

Seth sits down with the Brewers' 2022 first round draft pick, shortstop Eric Brown, Jr. In the second and final segment of this interview, the two talk about Brown's collegiate years, being drafted in the first round, and his introduction to the Milwaukee Brewers organization. View full video