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backup catchers

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Everything posted by backup catchers

  1. backup catchers
    I guess this shows the dangers of one stat analysis. I doubt if any GM would consider him truly average. However he may have more value to the Brewers than another "average" lf because he is a right handed power hitter. Much of a players value has to be considered in the context of how he fits with the rest of the lineup. Lee was perfect for what the Brewers needed.
  2. backup catchers
    I like BA when looking at real young players. Just gives me an idea of how good his hitting ability is. If he k's a lot and doesn't walk much he can learn patience and the strike zone. If he just doesn't have the hand eye coordination it takes he usually has a pretty poor average. Conversly if the guy has a slider speed bat he can get away with it at the lower levels if he has patience and strike zone knowlege. That doesn't mean he can be a major league hitter though. No real science or stats to back it up just my personal way of looking at A ball or lower guys.
  3. backup catchers
    I don't think applying mass aggregates to specific situations is appropriate. Mass aggregates are a good starting point to determining the right coarse for a specific situation. If a manager is going to just go with his gut feeling he may let his emotion rule his better judgement because it feels right at the moment. If he knows the general odds of success ahead of time he has some objective information to help him make that spur of the moment decision. It's like feeling lucky at a casino. If you know the odds ahead of time you are less likely to make a foolish move than if you had no general idea of how bad your chances are.
  4. backup catchers
    The thing that can really hurt you is failing at the sacrifice, however. Failing in any aspect of the game can hurt you.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif
  5. backup catchers
    Are you saying the sacrifice moves the runner over 2 bases, or did you mean runner on second and no outs vs. runner at third and 1 out. Using the "run frequency chart" link provided above: I was saying a runner at 2nd and bunted to third. I thought I clicked that chart but must have missed it the first time around thanks. This is one case where I believe the stats are reliable. Obviously each situation and hitter has to be considered as there is no absolute answer based on stats when it comes to game management. But in a normal situation with a run of the mill average hitter I would tend to go with the statistical averages for the best chance to score. It's hard to argue facts.
  6. backup catchers
    Russ, do you know what the chances of scoring with a runner at third is with 1 out is? Or could you direct me to a place I could find out? I have to believe it is higher than a man on first with no outs. Just wondering about sac bunts with a man on second with no outs. No one seemed to consider that sac bunt situation. It might be the best arguement for bunting as a fundamental skill.
  7. backup catchers
    To make defensive stats even more difficult than they already are it is impossible to determine how a pitcher reacts with a superior defense behind him. Seems to me pitching to contact is a little easier a sell to a pitcher if he has a great defense. But if it takes 10-20 points off an opponents ops and 10-15 rbi way it has to be worth something. As far as Krynzel goes if there is a good offense around him I think he would be worth it.
  8. backup catchers
    The only problem with walking anyone over giving up a basehit is it likely took more pitches to put him on. Seems to me the pitch count might not show up in that inning but could lead to more runs as the game goes on. Assuming it isn't the Houston bullpen whioch would lead to less runs scored.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif
  9. backup catchers
    I moved this from the major league thread. I thought it would be fair to compare them at the same age/level of development. I did this two ways. One was to compare them at the same age. The other the first full year in the majors. JJ's numbers are the same for both. This year at age 23. 241/324/369 ops 693. He has 352 ab's and 47k to 43 bb. Bill Hall at 23. 276/323/421 with a 744 ops. 107 k's to 34 bb. It should be noted he had 354 ab's in AAA and 142 at the majors. Bill in first full year at the majors. Age 24. 238/276/374 ops of 650. 119 k's to 20 bb in 390 ab's. This is the one that really interested me because they have almost the same amount of ab's with no excuses. JJ played far better defense until this year as well but Bill is a better base stealer by far. This is no slam on Hall. I am very happy, as are all Brewer fans, with his play this year. It just seems to me anyone that would argue Bill Hall should be the shortstop ahead of Hardy based solely on this years performance should take a step back and wonder how much better JJ will be at age 25 since he is certainly a better player for his age and service time than Hall.
  10. backup catchers
    we all know that Weeks will far exceed what Hardy is gonna' do offensively. That's fine I even agree with you but you mentioned in an earlier post that this is the major leagues and production is what counts. I may bve wrong but I believe since the All-star break Hardy has out produced Weeks. I don't have the numbers but since they are so close over the year and Hardy had that bad start Hardy must be out producing Weeks offensivley. Normally I would say it's the whole year's production that counts but since Hardy was coming off that injury his early shortcomings have to be taken with a grain of salt. So it's back to my point that if you want to bench one or the other in favor of Hall it should be Weeks. Myself I like the two rookies playing every day. Enjoy the game tonight, everybody! I hope Hardy, Hall, and Weeks all excel tonight! I'm a Brewers fan. Amen to thathttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  11. backup catchers
    Your point makes no sense. Hall is better than Hardy. Weeks is better than Hardy. But you want Hall to replace Weeks instead of Hardy. Weeks 244/320/407 ops 726 Horrible defense Hardy 238/322/368 ops 690 Good defense I don't see how one is doing so much better than the other for you to say with such certainty one is better than the other. When you factor in defense which Hardy is light years ahead of Weeks the offensive numbers look pretty even. Then again maybe you don't value solid defense up the middle as much as I do.
  12. backup catchers
    You actually think Hardy is a better ballplayer than Weeks, too? Oh, my! No I don't. You missed the point. All your arguements for putting Hall in at short work better for putting Hall at 2nd. He is light years ahead of Weeks defensively and comparable offensively. Why won't you use your arguements evenly across the board?
  13. backup catchers
    What's our alternative at 2B right now? Bill Hall.
  14. backup catchers
    Treego why have you thought about Hall replacing Weeks or is it just Hardy? It is a serious question because your arguements so far probably work better with Hall as the second baseman over Weeks than they do Hall over Hardy.
  15. backup catchers
    Why was he rushed to the MLB, especially coming of a shortened season in 2004 due to a serious injury? I think it was because, prior to this year, Bill Hall didn't show enough to be considered a viable alternative. I don't care if a guy is a rookie or not. This is the MLB. Produce better than an/the alternative or sit! Hardy has not produced better than the alternative at SS. The alternative at short was playing 3rd most of the time. So the real comparison isn't who is the best shortstop it is what is the best combination for the infield.
  16. backup catchers
    I have seen no refutation. The closest thing I've seen is one person's post that questioned the range rating based on a range rating putting Helms as the 3rd baseman with the most range on the Brewers. You might want to go back and read more carefully.
  17. backup catchers
    He's been horrible up until the past month or so. He has been respectable during that period. Actually he's been good since the all star break. But if you want to look at his bad performance during the first half you should also look at the subpar performance of Bill Hall for the past couple years. Yet Yost stuck with Hall and gave him chance after chance to be a major contributer to this team. JJ Hardy wouldn't have been annointed the starting shortstop this year if Hall would have done something last year. I like guys who perform well, and I am not crazy about guys that get 'anointed' and don't hold up their end of the deal. His end of the deal was to play a good shortstop and to improve on offense as the year went on. That was stated by both Yost and Melvin early on. In my mind Hardy has done just that so he has held up his end of the deal. It seem to me you want to annoint Hall even to the point of disregarding his past two years of futility.
  18. backup catchers
    Geno I must give credit where credit is due. For all your criticism of Yost you have kept an open mind and acknowledged his positive points. As far as Yost not accepting Hardy's lack of defense due to a suspect stat goes why should he say anything to the media about it even if it was true? That is something the manager should do in private with the player not in the media. I haven't even seen Yost bash Weeks for it. Nor should he. A players performance is something we can all see with our own eyes and, as fans, let them know what we think of them. If his managers and coaches start to bash a player publicly for his shortcomings as well that pretty much leaves the player alone with no support from anywhere. How is that supposed to help a player develope?
  19. backup catchers
    I'm hopingYost sits Weeks tonight so Rickie can think about his lackluster defensive skills. Why would he worry? His defense has been good enough for him to get the everday job in the bigs. Which is why I don't know if his defense will ever improve that much.
  20. backup catchers
    Reading the withdrawals are almost as fun as Brewer talk. My withdrawal symptoms are a little different. Runny nose, shakes and an overwhelming urge to give into the stat geeks and embrace Money Ball as the true religion. May Betty the Goddess of intangibles forgive me.
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