UpandIn

Ok, so now we have Burnes, Woodruff, Arcia, Hiura, Ashby, Peralta, and Nelson(who'd be probably on his option years). Tell me where the downside would be? And it's never(almost never) 8 years. It's almost always 6 MAYBE 7 years and then a couple of team options. You extend those players, you're coming out SOOO far ahead, it's not even funny. Rarely when you extend players at that point is it a big risk. If it doesn't work out, it's a pittance compared to what a normal FA contract is. You sign Contreras now, you're probably looking at a 5 year 35M deal with a couple of option years in the ~15M range. Maybe he says no. But you try. And that's what I take issue with...we haven't even tried with Burnes according to him. Initially said they didn't approach him after his Cy Young season, then said they haven't offered any extensions. You have to have faith in your ability to self scout and then SOME risk tolerance as players can get hurt. And sometimes they don't work out, but again, almost never are they backbreaking contracts unless you're talking about a potential Wander/Julio type extension...which is what we'd potentially be looking at with Chourio. I get what you're saying...I remember people were using Segura(and Villar) back when he was in Milwaukee as a guy we shouldn't extend because he had struggled and Villar as someone we tried and it didn't work out. But even Hiura. We're 3 years into the deal. We might have 3 years left and option years? That's not gonna kill you. Especially if you'd...as I suggested gotten Burnes, Woodruff or Adames(not sure if the later two were ever offered, but Adames came here at a point when you'd have needed to give him a bigger deal).

No, it's not the players on the field. I just have trouble seeing those owners agreeing to that. The logistics would be difficult just for starters. You'd have to have two broadcasting partners(one primary one anyway). Or even 3 like the NFL with Fox, CBS and ESPN(lesser degree Amazon Prime). I think expecting that of MLB owners is too much. I think what Mara and Rooney did was incredible and IIRC, Al Davis fought him on it(though they now benefit from it). They sacrificed for the league...otherwise the Giants, Jets, Cowboys, the...Commanders, pretty much just the MLB big markets with a few places where Football is bigger, they'd have the same competitive advantage.

This has literally never made sense. They didn't give Bonilla deferred money to keep him, they literally did it to get rid of him without having to pay him. So...in this case, going fully Bobby Bonilla would be giving Burnes away and then paying his ~11M over from about 2030-2060. Maybe they'd go Max Scherzer who got 110M in deferred money or Strasburg who was getting 70M. The first step in extending Burnes. Offering Burnes an extension. The second step...seeing what his counter is. The first two lead to the 3rd. Negotiate or determine it's not likely.

And the bigger market teams will NEVER agree to share all their revenue. It's why the NFL has blown past MLB. Wellington Mara, owner of the Giants...sacrificed for the wellness of the league and now they're signing 110B dollar TV deals, they're getting 3B more a year for the Red Zone Package... MLB has a team that's going to spend around 450M while there will be other teams spending 45. It's kinda like CFB in resource allocations.

I can live with that. The McCutchen signing made a ton of sense. He'd had an OPS over 1.000 the previous two years vs lefties and he was still a very solid hitter. You can only go on what you know at the time. McCutchen should have been a VERY good platoon player and still capable vs right handed pitchers. He wasn't. His OPS dropped by ~80 points, his OPS vs lefties dropped by ~300 points from 2021 and over 200 points from 2020. The problem was running him out there everyday vs RHed pitchers and Hiura vs LHPers. He was still our 2nd best hitter vs LHPing behind Renfroe I believe(among regulars). Escobar should be acquired for a mid-tier prospect and with the Mets eating half of his remaining contract. That's about all I'd give up for him. But I'd love to see him playing 3rd vs good lefties with Urias over at 2nd or he could play 1B/DH with Brosseau at 3B, Urias at 2B. We seem like we'll likely be a very heavy platoon team this year. His versatility can help there.

I can live with that. The McCutchen signing made a ton of sense. He'd had an OPS over 1.000 the previous two years vs lefties and he was still a very solid hitter. You can only go on what you know at the time. McCutchen should have been a VERY good platoon player and still capable vs right handed pitchers. He wasn't. His OPS dropped by ~80 points, his OPS vs lefties dropped by ~300 points from 2021 and over 200 points from 2020. The problem was running him out there everyday vs RHed pitchers and Hiura vs LHPers. He was still our 2nd best hitter vs LHPing behind Renfroe I believe(among regulars). Escobar should be acquired for a mid-tier prospect and with the Mets eating half of his remaining contract. That's about all I'd give up for him. But I'd love to see him playing 3rd vs good lefties with Urias over at 2nd or he could play 1B/DH with Brosseau at 3B, Urias at 2B. We seem like we'll likely be a very heavy platoon team this year. His versatility can help there.

I'm not saying give up on him as a starter. I'm just suggesting he could be used in the Hader role in the short term. We have him for 7 more years if we want him...wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to use him in 2-3 inning stints a couple times a week. I'm thinking when Peralta starts to begin with, but you wouldn't be tied to that. He clearly has elite, true ace type stuff, so I wouldn't think they'd be giving up on him as a starter long term. But if you have the big 3, Lauer, Houser, maybe Gasser/Small and you bring in another starter or someone like Knarr gets called up? It's just one idea. I don't think anyone can really guess what this pen is going to look like in Sept. There is SUCH an enormous range of potential outcomes, it'd be foolish to try and guess.

Good call. 60 FB, 60 SL. There are just SO many guys who could potentially break out...it's impossible to guess who actually will. But he's definitely one. So is Ashby. Maybe they make him a multi-inning reliever?

In fairness, most of the time when they've done this, it hasn't worked out. But with reports that the Brewers are willing to trade an OFer for Pitching, it made more sense it'd be for a young, controllable reliever. Felix Bautista would look SO good in this pen...unlikely as that may be.

Bullpens are weird, but this is the hole right now...IMO. Uribe could certainly come in and just gain confidence and become a stud. That's hardly unusual. He could be the closer by the end of this year. Our #7 Prospect(per fangraphs) Justin Topa-70 grade FB, 60 grade slider; Struggles staying healthy have been a problem, but he's also got the stuff to be a late inning reliever. Two guys who were position prospects who moved to the mound, the later after being a top ~50 prospect. Lucas Ecerg...less likely he could become a late inning man, but pitchers with his stuff can figure it out quickly(which is a common theme here and it only takes 1 or 2 to do so the pen looks entirely different). Javy Guerra can hit 100 and had the stuff to be a late inning reliever. High spin rates, he was dominant last year in AAA. He was a top 50 prospect at a position player, but also has the stuff to be a SU man and a closer. Justin Yeager, part of the...robbery that was the Contreras trade throws in the upper 95-98(+2MPH) having added velocity last year per scouting reports, he's throwing his slider in the 87-90 up 3 MPH...and apparently a high spin rate, but he nibbles too much. Cam Robinson, sits mid 90s, his FB has a 60 grade, two other above average pitchers(potentially) and he had 63% ground ball rate. Gus Varland was apparently hitting 98 when he moved to the BP. Exceptionally unlucky last year with a .374 BABIP against him. Good strikeout rate and was pitching well in a relievers role. Ethan Small-Apparently hits 96 in shorter stints? I don't know, haven't seen it, but he's got a 70 grade change, struggled badly last year with his command as he was nibbling too much, but his fastball is deceptive and he's had a good curve in the past. He wouldn't be my pick, but he could certainly play a role in a as multi-inning reliever. Or hell, if he's ACTUALLY touching 96 in shorter stints, he could be an effective 7th inning man depending on match-ups? These are just some of the pitchers(the most likely, but still, only some) who could find themselves pitching in the late innings of playoff games or contributing in some significant way...or they never make the 26 and are marginal AAA relievers. That's in addition to all the pitchers already listed. If feels like good bullpens come together through a couple anchors and then trial and error. We lost a big anchor next year...so it's sure be nice if between Williams, Bush, Uribe, Cousins, we could get a couple of anchors.

I get that, but I think the fact that they've been able to handle lefties in the minors at least shows they can stay in on them. They're not bailing out like so many lefties do. At that point, it's just a matter of contact IMO. If Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, if they can put the ball in play vs lefties, they're going to be alright. They may only carry a .680 OPS, but I could see it being a .330/.350 type line for Mitchell or Turang. That's...IF they are capable of doing that. Mitchell is the one I'm the most worried about. But I also wouldn't be surprised if he had a big year. We have a mountain of question marks. Will Winker get back to being a .300/.400/.550 line Will Adames be able to get the walk rate back over 10% in addition to the power and defense? Both Adames and Urias hit into poor luck. Will the shift rules help the Brewers more than most teams? With Turang playing 2B, a plus defensive SS, will he be able to cover enough ground in case he struggles to hit? Or will he just keep on hitting pretty well as he's going to be a 23 year old rookie. Will Frelick be able to strike out once every 200 ABs? Can Wiemer make the adjustments? Contreras do what he did last year in a loaded ATL lineup in Milwaukee when he's expected to get another ~150 PAs and DH on some days? Who else are we going to add? Can Toro or Perkins or Miller break out and be productive ML hitters? There are a ton of questions, but we've got enough options and talent and I think the rule changes will help us. I think our defense is going to be drastically improved save the most important position(C). We'll see if we can work our magic with him as we've done with past catchers. And I think there's a good chance Ashby steps up and becomes a potential 3rd ace. He's that talented and he should have high expectations this year. I also think we've got ~20-30M in payroll room and who knows how that manifests.

I'd want them to eat 4-5M. I like that he's got good splits vs lefties. That's...really the first thing I"m looking at for any potential addition at this point. I think he'd be best served as a 1B/DH vs good lefties. And we could throw him a Valerio in order to do so...he has some value. I don't know, I liked him. He also provides some protection against Turang struggling. But I wouldn't make this signing if it meant Turang wasn't going to get the lions share of the ABs at 2B. I'd do it so we could kinda rotate Escobar around.

Agreed. I like Adames...you can't commit 170 to him...and I really don't think you'd have to. People are looking at these FA contracts and acting like something's changed. NOTHING has changed. The Brewers still have team control for 2 more years, so comparing what Carlos Rodon got as an Apples to Apples comp is silly. How about Walker Buehler. Lets use him as a comp. He's been pretty much on par with Burnes. Same age, he's been an ace. Was dominant when they won the WS. Being a FA RIGHT NOW and being 400 innings away from being a FA is a pretty big difference. Tyler Glasnow is another. Not on the same level, but a dominant pitcher with just overpowering stuff who was likely set to get a massive payday. Even Rodon himself. No, the Brewers CANNOT sign any of these elite FA's to contracts. They can afford to extend players who are elite and still under team control for 2 years. But obviously as the team control diminishes, the chances to extend diminishes. I think last year was the time to sign Burnes, but I don't think it's nearly as unlikely as some are suggesting. You have to actually make the offer and make an attempt and it's possible the Brewers know it'll be expensive either way and they're just planning on making a run and then trading Burnes, Woody, Adames. Burnes came out and said he hasn't been approached, but that he'd like to stay in Milwaukee(not that saying he wants to stay here means that much, a contract extension would tell you just how much he wants to).

If Ashby can just refine a few things, it's entirely plausible to see him jump into the Corbin Burnes tier. His stuff is so nasty and electric, that it's just about working on his pitch sequence and maturing as a pitcher. Now...not everyone does that. Wily Peralta is a pitcher who had the upside of an ace. In fact, in the broadest of terms, I think there are usually half a dozen guys at least in every farm system who legitimately have "ace" upside. That takes so much to get there, but Ashby is healthy, he's overpowering and now he's on the precipice. It's unlikely he reaches the top of his ceiling, but...it's certainly exciting to think about what we could have with Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby/Lauer...and then Gasser could force his way into the discussion which could help the Brewers at the deadline possibly use a pitcher like Lauer for a significant upgrade elsewhere. Of course we all know how rare it is for a staff to make it through a season healthy.

I think you need to be on the OD roster get draft compensation. It's pretty hard to work all this nonsense out the CBA wasn't completed until they decided on the international draft and that factored into it in the original CBA, but...long story short, gotta be on the OD. Though you still get a full service year if you're in the top 3. So the Os don't get one. The Mariners I believe do and I don't think anyone else does. Not the Braves for Harris(top 100) or Strider(OD but not top 100...in fact, not top 20 on the Braves own just a year earlier). The O's don't get one for Adley because he wasn't there OD. This system needs some tweaks.