UpandIn

Ok, so now we have Burnes, Woodruff, Arcia, Hiura, Ashby, Peralta, and Nelson(who'd be probably on his option years). Tell me where the downside would be? And it's never(almost never) 8 years. It's almost always 6 MAYBE 7 years and then a couple of team options. You extend those players, you're coming out SOOO far ahead, it's not even funny. Rarely when you extend players at that point is it a big risk. If it doesn't work out, it's a pittance compared to what a normal FA contract is. You sign Contreras now, you're probably looking at a 5 year 35M deal with a couple of option years in the ~15M range. Maybe he says no. But you try. And that's what I take issue with...we haven't even tried with Burnes according to him. Initially said they didn't approach him after his Cy Young season, then said they haven't offered any extensions. You have to have faith in your ability to self scout and then SOME risk tolerance as players can get hurt. And sometimes they don't work out, but again, almost never are they backbreaking contracts unless you're talking about a potential Wander/Julio type extension...which is what we'd potentially be looking at with Chourio. I get what you're saying...I remember people were using Segura(and Villar) back when he was in Milwaukee as a guy we shouldn't extend because he had struggled and Villar as someone we tried and it didn't work out. But even Hiura. We're 3 years into the deal. We might have 3 years left and option years? That's not gonna kill you. Especially if you'd...as I suggested gotten Burnes, Woodruff or Adames(not sure if the later two were ever offered, but Adames came here at a point when you'd have needed to give him a bigger deal).

No, it's not the players on the field. I just have trouble seeing those owners agreeing to that. The logistics would be difficult just for starters. You'd have to have two broadcasting partners(one primary one anyway). Or even 3 like the NFL with Fox, CBS and ESPN(lesser degree Amazon Prime). I think expecting that of MLB owners is too much. I think what Mara and Rooney did was incredible and IIRC, Al Davis fought him on it(though they now benefit from it). They sacrificed for the league...otherwise the Giants, Jets, Cowboys, the...Commanders, pretty much just the MLB big markets with a few places where Football is bigger, they'd have the same competitive advantage.

I wasn't paying close enough attention and wondered when SMU moved to the ACC. Anyway...feels like they're going to get a lot more easy throws, we're going to keep drives alive with QBs running and he's a 6th guy. But hey, with Evers, they've at least got options. And as someone who said there's almost no way Chryst is fired(I just did NOT believe UW would be that aggressive) and thought we couldn't get QBs because we had Mertz here, a highly rated QB, Fickell is DESTROYING that idea. 3 in about a week now. Fickell could easily go 10-2 heading into the B1G Title Game next year based on the schedule. Probably won't in Yr1, but he's bringing in a whole lot of talent right away and flipping a lot of recruits.

It's the Bucks. Wisconsin Sports teams think injuries are a matter of National Security. BUT according to Middleton, when he came back, he twisted it a couple times, some small things, it was a little sore, tried to play through it and now they're holding him out as a precaution until he's 100%. Not the knee he sprained last year. So that's good. Middleton makes me the most nervous long term...I'm sure that's recency bias as last year I wasn't real confident in Lopez, but...he wants 40M a year for multiple more years. A trade MIGHT not be the worst idea...

This has literally never made sense. They didn't give Bonilla deferred money to keep him, they literally did it to get rid of him without having to pay him. So...in this case, going fully Bobby Bonilla would be giving Burnes away and then paying his ~11M over from about 2030-2060. Maybe they'd go Max Scherzer who got 110M in deferred money or Strasburg who was getting 70M. The first step in extending Burnes. Offering Burnes an extension. The second step...seeing what his counter is. The first two lead to the 3rd. Negotiate or determine it's not likely.

And the bigger market teams will NEVER agree to share all their revenue. It's why the NFL has blown past MLB. Wellington Mara, owner of the Giants...sacrificed for the wellness of the league and now they're signing 110B dollar TV deals, they're getting 3B more a year for the Red Zone Package... MLB has a team that's going to spend around 450M while there will be other teams spending 45. It's kinda like CFB in resource allocations.

Dude...you wanna just start talking Brandon Bostic while we're at it! Jeesus that was brutal.

This is getting a little silly. It used to be guys like Clay Matthews or...Adams that would go back and retire with a team. On another note, looking like Savage is pretty much on track to be little more than Haha. They each had a good year early and then got progressively worse.

I remember a few years ago people saying he'd already passed White and LT for the best defender of all time. I remember saying...as well as others, he needed a few more years. Must have been after 2018? Since 2027, he's had 3 pretty good years, but he was so incredible. I think he overtrained. I remember when the Texans were on Hard Knocks they showed him training. He did that cross fit with a 1,000 LB tire(I think). Anyway, he talked about early in his career he could barely do it 1-2 times, then he got up to 25 times, then 50 and then the previous off-season he'd gotten up to 99. That just a guess, but with the back problems and torn muscles.... Anyway, going out having a good season.

That trade clearly made our team better. He was the one player who had an OPS over ~740 vs lefties and his OPS vs lefties was over .840. And we got back...3 pitchers who, again, probably won't make the opening day roster. You think that made the Brewers better and then 10M savings was an ancillary bonus? I'd disagree.

I didn't say we were worse overall. He said we'd made three BIG trades. Well, two of them were to improve the team, one was to dump salary. And that trade didn't change the "mediocre bullpen and one of the softest tossing groups in the league." We took back 3 relievers, none of whom are even close to being locks to make our OD roster. So that hasn't improved as a result of the Renfroe trade. We could have traded Burnes, Woodruff and Adames and that'd be 6 big trades. Big trade doesn't necessarily mean it's a trade that makes us BETTER this year. And we DID get back a player who helps us vs lefties. Contreras was VERY good last year. As bad as we were last year vs lefties, the goal should have been to add more than one player to rectify that problem. Especially when that one player will ALMOST certainly not come close to replicating his splits from a year ago and who only played ~100 games. I'd like to think we're not going to hang our hopes on being able to hit LHPing on a guy who's got ~150 PAs in his career vs lefties. So the justification for not spending being we've done these things and we've saved 10M...so I'd hope that 10M would be put back into the team, not just used to save salary.

I think we'll be able to get a good package for them. I always thought some of these were probably a bit...much. Multiple top 15 prospects? I think people are going to be disappointed just as they were with Hader if we wait until next off-season. And he's not wrong, teams are more willing to make those at the deadline. I think we're still going to get a nice package for Burnes, Woody and Adames. I also think it's more likely we get prospects in HiA or just a couple years away if we want to maximize value. I don't know if I believe the premise that we're going to be a sub .500 team 3 years from now if we don't get anything back for them. We could have Ashby and Misiorowski atop the rotation with Peralta as our #3, Gasser and Small or we could have a terrible rotation. I don't know...Arnold will figure it out. This season hasn't even started yet. This also isn't our problem. It's fun to discuss these, but we can spend too much time worrying about the 2025 season when we've got a pretty good team right now. Maybe we'll announce a Corbin Burnes extension. Or a Woodruff extension. Or maybe we won't do anything. We'll find out. But all I was really saying is there's a chasm between what he said and how you interpreted it. We won't get TOP prosects vs they won't have any value. Do you think teams are going to be trading multiple players who are MLB ready or half a season away that are in the top 20-50 next off-season for Burnes or Woody? I'd say it's unlikely. Could we get a couple backend top 100 prospects and then 2 other prospects who have 1 or 2 really impressive tools? Yeah...that's likely to happen. And lets say, hypothetically, we get to the NLCS and lose in 7 again. Do you think the decision to trade those players will be as black and white and that you'll be saying Arnold really screwed up? There's more nuance to these decisions than that.

3 point shooting has been what's killed them and they don't give up many layups. And they've been an elite defense(#1 or #2 this year)...but when they're playing Carter and Jrue, if guys get hot, they shoot over them. You're right obviously, when you face a team like...the Bulls and they're hitting, it can hurt. It also takes an almost comical collapse. It is kinda funny to me that the knock on Lopez for years was he was a poor defender/rebounder and he was just a low post scorer. Now they almost never use him as a low post scorer. When he does, it's kinda as a 3rd or 4th option...which is a little stupid IMO as he's so good down there. As for Allen, it's easy to tell after a game like last night and I think those are the games people hang onto, but he's a good player. He just needs to be the 4th or 5th option and a catch and shoot guy who hangs out at the 3 point line and if someone closes out, he can attack...a little. But if they're looking for a guy who can be an elite defender and hit 3s like Allen, those guys generally get 20M a year. I would like to see Carter in the rotation, even against a team like the Celtics. His length is obviously a big disadvantage, but...what the hell, he can at least deny the ball and he has quick hands. He needs to do less on offense. And Beauchamp should get minutes when a guy like Tatum or Brown start to get going. He's our best wing defender other than Jrue. Brown scores 7 straight, put him in the game and put him on one, when Jrue is healthy, he's on the other...and it's that simple. But...that's not how Bud does things. If they get healthy...they're going to be one of the few teams who can win it. If they're not, they won't. I don't think there's a trade out there that's gonna help them a ton...though I'd still consider Cam Reddish. We've seen the talent there. And he should be cheap, plus a good fit...if he just shoots the 3 like he did last year in ATL.

Pretty much. I mean...who cares how they're doing in the regular season as long as they're in the playoffs? To a degree anyway. They lost an UGLY game last night with Giannis blowing it at the end, but they're missing Middleton, Ingles is just coming back(looked really good the last two games...and I actually see now how his defensive metrics are good despite being nicknamed "slow Joe"). I think the inference is we're supposing to be wringing our hands because they've lost 3 straight games? Yeah...don't care. If 4 of our playoff rotation players aren't healthy come May/June, then I'll start worrying. Until then...meh.

Doesn't look like he's saying they won't get any value, he's saying they won't give up their top prospects. We were just talking about Grayson Rodriguez, Jackson Holliday+. There's quite a bit of merit to what he's saying. Teams don't seem to be desperate enough to trade their top prospects in the off-season. I don't know if he's right, but I know he's definitely not saying we won't get "any value" for Burnes, Woodruff(and Adames) next off-season. I believe he's saying they won't give enough to make it worthwhile.

They've made 3 big trades, but one of those trades made them a worse team. Clearing money from the payroll is nice if that money is going to be put back into the payroll, but it's looking more and more like Renfroe was traded for a couple of just...mediocre pitchers while subtracting from our biggest offensive deficiency...hitting lefties.

He should. He almost certainly won't. The Dolphins should at the very least not play him anymore this year. They will.

I'm not that concerned with last season...we're seldom signing guys coming off monster seasons as the get...monster deals. But he's got reverse splits. They're not great vs lefties. Segura made a lot of sense at 2/17. He hits lefties hard. He's a good defender...and you could always DH him IF you have Turang, playing well or hitting lefties since he's got reverse splits himself. Fujinami is a guy that...really makes a lot of sense. Triple digits, he's got a nasty slider, he doesn't seem to be attracting a lot of attention. It's not the main reason, but having a star from Japan would always be helpful with the marketing...not that he's Ohtani, but it's something. Plus, he's supposed to be just filthy, but he's wild. I feel like we've done pretty well with those types. At least when they've got elite stuff.

I don't think so. I think they used a TO then. They announced the TO on the broadcast before they recognized the injured player. It was with...I think 2:47 left in the game. I think Gundy just...left it in his pocket...despite the fact that he would have had ~30 seconds left or the Badgers could have had a kick blocked. I don't, seemed like a bad move to me.

I can live with that. The McCutchen signing made a ton of sense. He'd had an OPS over 1.000 the previous two years vs lefties and he was still a very solid hitter. You can only go on what you know at the time. McCutchen should have been a VERY good platoon player and still capable vs right handed pitchers. He wasn't. His OPS dropped by ~80 points, his OPS vs lefties dropped by ~300 points from 2021 and over 200 points from 2020. The problem was running him out there everyday vs RHed pitchers and Hiura vs LHPers. He was still our 2nd best hitter vs LHPing behind Renfroe I believe(among regulars). Escobar should be acquired for a mid-tier prospect and with the Mets eating half of his remaining contract. That's about all I'd give up for him. But I'd love to see him playing 3rd vs good lefties with Urias over at 2nd or he could play 1B/DH with Brosseau at 3B, Urias at 2B. We seem like we'll likely be a very heavy platoon team this year. His versatility can help there.

I can live with that. The McCutchen signing made a ton of sense. He'd had an OPS over 1.000 the previous two years vs lefties and he was still a very solid hitter. You can only go on what you know at the time. McCutchen should have been a VERY good platoon player and still capable vs right handed pitchers. He wasn't. His OPS dropped by ~80 points, his OPS vs lefties dropped by ~300 points from 2021 and over 200 points from 2020. The problem was running him out there everyday vs RHed pitchers and Hiura vs LHPers. He was still our 2nd best hitter vs LHPing behind Renfroe I believe(among regulars). Escobar should be acquired for a mid-tier prospect and with the Mets eating half of his remaining contract. That's about all I'd give up for him. But I'd love to see him playing 3rd vs good lefties with Urias over at 2nd or he could play 1B/DH with Brosseau at 3B, Urias at 2B. We seem like we'll likely be a very heavy platoon team this year. His versatility can help there.

Yeah...the front office goes to the players and the players agents and they MAKE-THEM-AN-OFFER! Sounds like they've tried to do so with Fried and he's rebuffed them. But outside of Riley and Olson, if one of these deals doesn't work out, they'll still come out WAAAY ahead in the long term as virtually all of their guys are signed through age 31-32. Riley is older, but still not into his late 30s. They've locked up SIX players now, Acuna Jr, Albies, Harris, Olson, Murphy, and Strider. 5 everyday players who are all All-Star caliber players and a couple who have the potential to finish top 5 in MVP voting like Harris, Riley and Acuna Jr. Strider could be an ace. And that gives them cost certainty and they've got a farm system full of pitching, so they can build their rotation around Fried and Strider now while rebuilding a weakened Farm System... But this is how you compete with the Mets while spending 250M less.

And the flip side to that...they believe one of the two MUST be traded. I think that Rodgers deal is absolutely insane and I'd wipe the man tear from my eye and wish him the best of luck playing in New York(which I don't see him agreeing to and what team is taking an unhappy Aaron Rodgers). I think you get a first for Rodgers at this point...and he has to agree to it. Not because of his contract, because of commons sense. Which is why...without pretending to have any actual clue what the hell is going to happen, I think the Raiders...MAYBE the 49ers are the only real options. IF-IF it's SF, you tax them by making them give up at least one of those 3rd round picks(I believe they'll be awarded 2 more, 1 this year as they've lost Mayhew to the Commanders in addition to the 2 they got for both McDaniels and Saleh. So I guess you take a 3rd+a 5th and then a 2024 1st? IDK... But now if they DON'T trade Rodgers, they anticipate they'll trade Love(I think either they trade Love or they keep both next 2 years as difficult as that may be). What's the worst that can happen? -Trade Rodgers and he goes and plays great and wins a SB somewhere else? Great. I'd cheer for him. His team would become my #2 team(unless it was purple). What if we keep Rodgers, pass up the 1st round pick(hell, maybe we can get more than a 1st for him)...we stay in cap purgatory through the foreseeable future and Love becomes a Pro-Bowl Caliber Starter Elsewhere. Not Mahomes, not Herbert(though I think he has huge upside). But a very solid more mobile Matt Stafford type QB who isn't quite as refined, but now we've got extra picks, cap space in 2024(more like '25) and we can surround him with a really good skill group led by Watson, a talented D and what looks like it should be a good OL moving forward(beyond Bakh)?

Back on the Rodgers/Love discussion, PFF...who's usually not terrible at evaluating trade value...came up with these values and write up's for a potential Aaron Rodgers trade;

I liked this little breakdown of a Leonhard play. Tell me what this pass rush could look like with Quay Walker and DeVondre Campbell(or Hollins even...with his speed). It's just things like this...yes, they're GOING to pass this off better normally at the NFL level, but he's also likely to have better athletes. And I would reiterate, if KC is not happy with Leo Chenel, he could be a perfect fit in GB. Absolute thumper vs the run, and he was one of the most athletic MLBers to ever come out. Scored a 9.99 on the RAS which was #3 all time. Give me Clark, Wyatt on the DL Quay/Chenel mugging the A Gaps Campbell what the hell, walk him up also. Jaire/Stokes/Nixon at CB Douglas/Ford/Savage at S I could see a lot of fun to be had.