brewfanmn

Based on what exactly? They're a top-5 offense for the season, and have scored 4.8 runs per game vs. above-.500 teams, and 5.0 runs per game vs. below-.500 teams. As a team they've played at a 92-win pace vs. above-.500 teams.

Going into tonight, the Brewers have been a top-5 run scoring team over the last week, two weeks, month, and for the season.

Pretty extreme mischaracterization of my post (which was actually just a series of facts). I never said he was dominant. Just pointing out that if anything, he has actually pitched better with men on base than with the bases empty this year. The results just haven't followed. Baseball can be funny like that.

If I wanted a pitcher to strand runners, I'd want them to strike more guys out, walk fewer, and get more weak contact. If they accomplished that and it didn't work, I probably wouldn't blame the pitcher.

Peguero has a higher K%, lower BB%, higher GB%, lower HR/9, and higher soft contact% with men on base than with bases empty this year.

The team projections on Fangraphs and Baseballprospectus are based off depth charts (that I assume are maintained manually? Maybe crowdsourced?) to turn the individual projections into a team projection. So if a guy gets hurt or there is a roster move that will change future playing time estimates, that will be reflected in the team projection The Brewers one looks pretty accurate https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

Before anyone asks, these are from 10 years ago and projection systems have only gotten better since then https://mglbaseball.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/what-can-a-players-season-to-date-performance-tell-us-beyond-his-up-to-date-projection/ https://mglbaseball.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/mid-season-projections-part-ii-pitchers/

The projections know about the recent performance and bake that in appropriately. I've never seen any study that indicates "momentum" is a real thing (and in fact have only seen studies that indicate the opposite if anything), but I have seen plenty that show the best forecast of future performance is projection systems like ZiPS and Steamer (which is what drives the playoff odds) that update daily to include recent performance. My guess is the concept of momentum tends to be drastically overstated. 6% (probably more like 8% after tonight) feels about right to me for a team that has needed a scored-earth run to get their run differential into the positive, that's 3 GB in the Wild Card of a Braves club with a much better roster, and has another team in the Mets in-between them.

This is a lot of time and mental energy being spent on a team with a 6% chance to make their second postseason appearance in 6 years.

Brewers must be shaking in their boots

Agreed, my "otherwise" was more in response to using one month of ERA as a counterpoint.

4.37 xFIP in August says otherwise

Can't use Williams in 3 out of 4, but Payamps in 4 of out 5 would have been OK? Williams and Megill both pitched yesterday, and Williams had thrown 36 pitches over the last 3 days vs. Megill having thrown 29 over the last 3 days, and Williams had had a week off prior to that. Just go with your best guy. If Megill had a shaky inning, people would be losing their mind that Murphy left their best reliever in the bullpen over a 7-pitch difference in the last 3 days.

He has the second-lowest career ERA in the history of the sport, without a third pitch and with a career walk rate barely any better than this year's walk rate. Nobody should even entertain the idea of him needing a third pitch or pitching anywhere but the 9th inning.

Civale has a 3.72 ERA with the Brewers (so barely better than Montas) and a 4.79 FIP and 4.59 xFIP (so much worse than Montas). And the peripherals are always going to be more predictive moving forward, especially in smaller samples like this. Montas is definitely not the guy I'd usually want starting G2 of a playoff series for a division-winning team, but on this rotation, I don't see anyone better.

And yet: 6 GS, 33 IP, 3.82 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 3.94 xFIP. Over a full season that would be the best SP in this year's rotation. I agree with you that any talk of extending / re-signing him is premature, but that's mostly because with the way this org finds and develops pitchers, I'm not sure they should be giving anyone over 30 guaranteed money. But "he's had a grand total of 2 good outings" is far underselling what he's provided, I'd say. He pretty clearly looks like their #2 starter in a playoff series.

The playoff pitching logjam is really interesting. My recommendations would generally adhere to the Fangraphs "depth charts" projections (which blend the two leading projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer) SP (4) Peralta (3.85) - Clearly still their top SP despite the inconsistency this year. Last couple starts have been interesting with better efficiency and ERA but decreased strikeouts. Not sure what to make of him right now but you have to run him out there as the top guy Montas (4.21) - Longest track record of MLB success, and has been great since they traded for him. Myers (4.41) - This is where things start to get interesting. Least experience, but most consistent performer since the beginning of June. Rea (4.63) - Actually projects a little worse than Civale, but has been a much bigger part of the team and has pitched much better than Civale lately. RP (9) Locks (6) Williams (3.02) Megill (3.50) Hudson (3.82) Koenig (3.94) Payamps (3.95) Civale - Most teams like to carry a long man for blowouts and emergencies, and my guess is Civale has the leg up over Wilson and Ross for that role Locks if healthy (2) Mears (3.49) Milner (3.64) Both have bad ERAs, but great peripherals which leads to their good projections. Milner has been a big part of the team and is a useful matchup guy to have in the playoffs Wild cards (1-3 depending on health of Mears / Milner) Misiorowski (3.95), Ashby (4.06), Hall (4.08), Peguero (4.10), Yoho (doesn't even have a projection yet) Totally depends on who is throwing the best down the stretch, especially which one(s) get up to the big leagues and pitch well there. May only have room for one of them if Mears and Milner are healthy and still looking good, but any of these guys could have a big impact

And this is why fantasy is just that: fantasy...

Ahh he’s a troll. Didn’t realize that. Apologies for taking the bait - carry on.

I don’t think the guy with elite stuff and 16 strikeouts to 2 walks is the one I’d want to be taking a victory lap on after 10 innings…

This is why the Brewers odds to win the division are 98.5%.

Yeah, this is crazy. FanGraphs has the Brewers with 98% division odds. That‘s all but wrapped up. The 25% bye odds are way, way more important at this point. Rooting for the Cardinals over the Dodgers should be a very easy call for a Brewers fan right now

Checking in after a couple weeks on the Brewers disappointing bust of a deadline- Civale, Mears, Montas: 61 IP, 3.86 ERA, 25% K, 8% BB, 3.88 xFIP Too early to count the chickens, but so far so good...

Is... the point of "hitting" not to score runs? Brewers 7th in MLB in runs per game, 11th in wRC+ this year. If that's what constitutes "AAA offense," the competition level in the minor leagues must be much better than I realized. Brewers almost identical to Dodgers in K:BB ratio, and have been much better than LAD in high leverage situations, with men on base, and with runners in scoring position.

Yeah, the righty thing carries a lot more weight with me than LOB%, which is widely known to be extremely fluky from year to year. The splits have been true for Peguero's whole career at least. ERA would definitely be misleading which is why I didn't show it. FIP would not be misleading because it's only looking at the batters he faced.