And That

Salt River Rafters 7, Mesa Solar Sox 6 Box Score Game Day Walk-off win for the Rafters. Jacob Nottingham played catcher again and went 2-4 with a double, run scored, and strike out. One runner tried to steal a base against him, and succeeded. No wild pitches or passed balls allowed. Brett Phillips continues to struggle mightily at the plate, goes hitless again. Though he was productive. Phillips was 0-1 with a walk, RBI, run scored, sac fly, and sac bunt. The sac bunt was part of the 9th inning rally for the Rafters. Tyler Spurlin was the lone Brewers pitcher in Tuesday's game. He gave up his first run of the AFL season, allowing a single, a double, and a walk while striking out one. He also induced a double play in the middle of that inning. Rafters play again Wednesday afternoon.

I know Harrison has had limited time actually at the plate in Wisconsin, but from the player's point of view, how many times can the team send you back to the same level before you start doubting yourself? I bet it feels like a lot more than 450 ABs to him. So from that angle, I think it makes sense to promote both of them to Carolina, which is a much, much better offensive environment than Brevard was. I can also see the reasoning behind keeping them both at Wisconsin.

The Brewers have put themselves in an awkward spot with Harrison and Gatewood. On its face, their production doesn't really merit a promotion to Carolina to begin the season, but do they really want to put them both back in Wisconsin for a third year? I would think not, but we'll see.

Yep. If there were to be a major development adjacent to Miller Park, it would have to be something complimentary to the park and surrounding community, not something that just moves jobs from here to there. So a "stadium village" type thing either would not work, or would steal business from the local bars. That's not good community building. A hotel in and of itself isn't a great idea either, because of the park's proximity (or lack thereof) to downtown. The only thing that immediately pops into my head is a destination mall/entertainment complex, something along the lines of the Mall of America here in Minnesota. Though it would have to be a scaled down version, if I'm remembering the surrounding area right. It fits the complimentary criteria of a place to go during the offseason and during the season for away games. Like the MoA, an indoor theme park might be a good idea. Maybe add a hotel. I don't know how much it would poach from surrounding entertainment options, and that's something that would have to be looked at. And maybe that's not feasible. I've never lived in Milwaukee, and haven't lived in Wisconsin for many years, so I don't have the pulse of the area that others here may have. Over a long enough timeline and with enough infrastructure and private spending, I'm sure the Miller Park area could be turned into a neighborhood hotspot type of area, but you're not going to do it by throwing a bunch of money at a stadium village and hoping for the best.

Salt River Rafters 2, Peoria Javelinas 8 Box Score Game Day The team with the best record in the AFL puts another win on the board, as the now 9-1 Peoria Javelinas beat up on our Salt River Rafters. Jacob Nottingham was the only Brewers position player to appear. He was hitless in 4 ABs, with a strikeout. As mentioned above, both runners attempting to steal a base off of him were successful, he allowed his second passed ball in as many games behind the dish, and also "allowed" two wild pitches. It's difficult to know how responsible he was for the stolen bases and wild pitches, but the note from Eric Longenhagen above is not encouraging. Nottingham's fall league OPS is down to 637. Javi Salas got his third start and for the first time got hit around. He did not make it through the first inning, allowing 6 runs on 4 hits, 3 walks, and a strikeout. A grand slam was mixed in there as well. Salt River plays second-place Mesa this afternoon at 2:35 CDT.

I would guess so. He's been ok with the bat and I've never heard that he has attitude problems. FWIW, he's allowed two stolen bases today in two attempts, and has a passed ball for the second game in a row. He's also been behind the plate for two wild pitches.

Salt River Rafters 7, Mesa Solar Sox 2 Box Score Game Day Rafters move to 7-3. Isan Diaz, playing second, was 1-5 with a double, run scored, 2 RBIs, and a strikeout. Jacob Nottingham was the DH and went 1-4, with a run scored and one strikeout. Brett Phillips played in right continues to struggle at the plate, 0-4 with a strikeout and a batting average down to .136. Josh Uhen and Tayler Scott both threw a scoreless inning with no walks or strikeouts. Scott allowed a double. Rafters back at it Monday afternoon.

Salt River Rafters 1, Scottsdale Scorpions 4 Box Score Game Day Rafters fall, but keep their 1.5 game lead. If you're wondering, their magic number is 22. Jacob Nottingham back at it again as the Rafters' catcher. He went 1-4 with a strike out. All three opposing base stealing attempts were successful, and Nottingham suffered his first passed ball of the AFL campaign. Tayler Scott pitched the 4th inning and got three ground ball outs after hitting the first batter. ERA is at 1.80 through five innings. Salt River is back at it on Friday at 8:35 CDT.

That's interesting, but isn't it only one side of the point? It's like looking at caught stealing without looking at stolen bases as well. What is really, really difficult to determine is how many runs Sedar has added to the Brewers' output over the years. Clearly he's made some good choices mixed in with those bad choices. There's just not enough available data to determine the weight on both sides of the scale on this topic. Unfortunately. And again, the Brewers haven't replaced him, and with Stearns/Arnold being extremely data-driven guys I assume they are satisfied that Sedar is having a net positive effect on the team.

Yep. It would be extraordinarily difficult to determine where Sedar compares to all of the other third base coaches in baseball. Not only would each individual wave around have to be examined on its own merits, you also have to consider the collateral impact of the wave around. It's possible that the player would have been out by 20 feet, except that the relay throw was wildly inaccurate, and allowed the run to score. It's possible that other runners advanced (if the out at home wasn't the third out) on the throw home, cancelling out some of the impact of the guy getting out at the plate. Also related to the above, a wildly inaccurate relay throw could allow other runners to advance as well as the run scoring. It's possible that the player would have been safe at home 95% of the time, except that the relay throw was perfect. It's possible the the umpires blew a call. It's possible that Chris Davis was in left field instead of Khris Davis. My gut feeling is that "our third base coach is terrible" is something that we say, and also something that fans of 29 other baseball clubs say. It could be that Sedar is terrible, but I don't think the data is there, or at least has been analyzed so precisely in a publicly documented manner, to make that determination. And I think the fact that the Brewers haven't replaced him backs that up.

I brought up T.J. Rivera and Rob Segedin in the Valbuena thread. Both guys have had good minor league production (Rivera astoundingly so), and play multiple positions besides third base, and are both turning 28 in the next few weeks. Or to go a different direction, how about Jae-gyun Hwang? There haven't been enough older KBO players who have made the jump to MLB to be able to tell whether or not he'd be able to replicate his success in Korea here, but he is at least worth a look at. According to MLBTR, he'll be stateside shortly for workouts. And he's a FA, so he doesn't have to go through the posting process.

Salt River Rafters 4, Glendale Desert Dogs 2 Box Score Game Day Salt River wins again, Brewers' offensive firepower mostly silent again. Isan Diaz (playing second base this time) went 1-5 with a run scored and three strike outs. Brett Phillips went 0-3 with a walk and three strike outs. 3TO! Diaz has a 588 OPS, Phillips a 617 OPS. On the pitching side, Josh Uhen threw 2/3 of an inning, hit someone, then got a fly ball out, then got a ground ball out, and then left. Your first place Rafters play next on Thursday at 8:35 CDT.

Yah, I think it's quite possible (likely?) that the Brewers' starting third baseman next year is not currently in the organization, though I kind of hope it's a blocked prospect like you mentioned or even a slightly-too-old-to-be-a-prospect guy like T.J. Rivera or Rob Segedin, and not Valbuena.

The Cubs' farm system has gone from one of the best to one of the worst in baseball. That's in large part because they have a great big league team now, but they do not have a good talent pipeline in place at the moment. Edit: I'm going to walk that back a little bit. Certainly lower half, but they have decent depth. Certainly not Angels bad.

Given that his defense at third is perhaps adequate, though probably not much more than that, and given that Cecchini's .316 wOBA was about 70th percentile for the PCL, I have a tough time seeing the argument for above average AAA player. I like Cecchini and don't think it would be a mistake to keep him on the 40-man roster this offseason. And it is working in Cecchini's favor that the Brewers don't have a ton of minor leaguers that will need to be added to the 40-man (though Taylor Williams' re-emergence might cost someone a spot). But I would be modestly surprised if the Brewers don't outright him in the next few weeks/months. As for Valbuena, thank you, no, unless he's willing to sign a below-market deal.

I feel like this guy is underselling the hit tool. His swing looks darn near perfect to my untrained eye. He puts a 55 grade on his hit tool, which roughly translates into a future projection of a .270 hitter who is a fringey All-Star candidate for his bat. I agree that his hit tool ceiling is maybe closer to a 60, but 55 is a pretty safe estimation.

I am confused about his power description on the report. So he currently has homerun power but it projects as double power in the future? How does that work? The report says "can drive the ball out to the pull field" which to me seems to indicate that he will have issues driving the ball to center and left, hence he'll have more gap than home run power when he's not pulling everything. Also, "can drive" isn't exactly the same thing as "drives." I do agree with the others who said he likely has 15-20 MLB HR power. With his bat speed and refined pitch selection, and especially if he's willing to use center and left more often, I could see a peak in the 30 range. Though I wouldn't put money on that. I also think he's a guy that could drift from a 55 to a 60 overall grade if he is able to a)improve on his Wisconsin production in Carolina next year and/or b)prove to more people that he can stay at SS at the major league level.

Guessing reilly meant 2B for Villar.

Burke Badenhop's take on Tebow

Salt River Rafters 4, Surprise Saguaros 1 Box Score Game Day Salt River moves to 4-2, and maintains a .5 game lead in the AFL's East Division. Lots of Brewers players in today's game as well. Isan Diaz, Brett Phillips, and Jacob Nottingham all started, and combined to go 0-9, though Nottingham did have a sac fly and an RBI. Diaz and Nottingham both struck out once. Diaz committed two errors at shortstop on back to back plays in the 6th inning, his first two errors of the AFL campaign. Neither lead to the Saguaros' lone run of the game. Nottingham threw out one of two potential base stealers and allowed one wild pitch. Javi Salas started the game for the Rafters, and had another good outing. He tossed 3 innings, and allowed 1 run on 5 hits, with no walks and 3 Ks. He also had the aforementioned wild pitch, which played a role in the run he allowed. I don't think it was ever made clear what sort of injury and/or mechanical flaw he was battling in the regular season that caused his often brutal results, but whatever it was hopefully it's behind him now. I saw him a few times early in the year in Biloxi and actually came away pretty impressed. Not big velocity, but he appeared to me to hide the ball well and when he's right, he gets good sink on his two-seamer. Salas' four-seam FB was generally 91-93 in today's game, with the two-seam being a tick slower. Slider was around 84, change about 87. Assuming Pitch F/X is reading that as a changeup correctly, he needs to have more speed differential between that pitch and his fastballs. Tyler Spurlin pitched two innings of relief and once again came away unscathed. He allowed one hit and struck out three. He pitched around the two Isan Diaz fielding errors in the 6th. In typical Spurlin fashion, he induced four groundballs and one fly ball. Lefties are hitless against Tyler in 6 ABs, which is noteworthy given his crossfire, low side-arm delivery that would typically give RHB fits but be picked up pretty easily by LHB. There could be something with his delivery that covers this up, or he might simply be keeping left handers off balance with his curve and slider. He was pretty decent in Brevard and Biloxi this year against LHB as well, allowing only a .242 batting average. Spurlin was 89-93 with his fastball, typically sitting around 90. Slider/curve came in around 80. Again, he throws harder than the typical side-arm pitcher. Almost a full 10 MPH faster than Ben Rowan, for instance. His delivery is pretty complicated and off-speed stuff is not great so I am hesitant to anoint him as a legit relief prospect, but he's knocking on the door. He might be one of those guys who does pretty well in Colorado. Salt River is back at it on Wednesday at 8:35 CDT.

You're right on Bickford, but I considered Lara to be part of the 2014 class.

I understand your overall point, but Gomez was quite the heralded prospect back in 2007-2008. The flipside being, if anyone dismisses those rankings out of hand because they don't agree, is a fool. The people who put together those rankings are smart folks.

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Salt River Rafters 1, Surprise Saguaros 3 Box Score Game Day Salt River sees their record drop to 3-2. Jacob Nottingham went 1-3 today, including a solo two out HR in the fifth that would be the only Rafters run to cross the plate. He also threw out the only baserunner who attempted a stolen base. No wild pitches allowed, no passed balls. And no other Brewers bats in the game. Only one Brewers pitcher today as well. Tayler Scott went two scoreless innings, allowing a single against two strike outs. The Rafters resume play tonight at 8:35 CDT, with Brewers farmhand Javi Salas taking the ball to start the game.

It will be interesting to see how aggressive the Brewers are with their placement of Erceg at the beginning of next season. I don't think it would be a good idea for him to go straight to AA, though it wouldn't surprise me if they did it given how hard they pushed guys this year. But if he destroys Carolina League pitching for a month, so be it, and that's far preferable to having him struggle in AA and being demoted.