And That

If Gainey and Spurlin are healthy, they both absolutely start in full-season ball, probably in Biloxi. That'll shift a few guys downward. Ortiz and Kenilvort both have really good raw stuff, and the Brewers kept them around all winter despite being way, way too old for the level they pitched at in 2017. I honestly don't see either winding up in Wisconsin, so it might be Carolina or bust.

I know they held Wilkerson out of there last year, but at the same time they have a lot of talent bubbling up to AA and frankly with Wilkerson's stuff he has to be able to grind it out in tough situations. He may get clobbered again in CS, but he's a guy that might actually take something away from it. With Lopez as a reliever, I'm not so much worried about a CS assignment. They can work around him pitching at home.

I went back and forth on Burnes/Nottingham between AA/AAA. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see both in CS.

Sure but signing a Morton or Miley doesn't preclude you from relying on young controllable players. When Jeremy Jeffress was starting a game in a playoff race last September, it's because the Brewers ran out of youth and control.

Feliz was a joke of a signing (still waiting for that "haul") but the counterpoint to that is the Brewers absolutely make the playoffs last year if they'd have signed Charlie Morton, a vet coming off a nothing year. Not quite the same situation, but I remember being thrown under the bus last offseason for even bringing Morton up. Edit: The Morton bus, for reference. Garza and Peralta were just too much depth.

I totally blanked about Vernon's surgery. The A/A+ catching situation is interesting. I'm thinking the Brewers want to give as many catching reps as possible to Harrison, Henry, and Feliciano. Harrison's bat would probably play in Carolina, though he arguably has the longest way to go behind the plate. I guess I don't see how all three fit on one team easily, though it's possible. I also think that Feliciano may be the least likely of the three to see OF time. Harrison's bat may not allow him to develop behind the plate and Henry is less likely than Feliciano to develop behind the plate. I was higher on Rodriguez going into last year, but watching him in Wisconsin, I'm just not sure that he hits enough to move past a backup role. I initially had Pennington in Carolina, but between the glut of pitchers there and the fact that Josh only has 30 innings above short-season ball/111 innings in three years as a pro, I am less confident the Brewers would push him. And yes, I agree that Mejia/Pena won't see field action this year unless it's an emergency.

Don't know if I did this last year or not but usually around this time of the year I do a forecast of the minor league rosters for the upcoming season. This is not a prediction so much as how the rosters could logically shake out given the current state of the organization. I do not aim to predict the future so I do not assume 40-man players will be DFA'd*, nor do I assume non-roster players will be added to the 40-man. Players will be signed/released and traded between now and the beginning of the season, and I make no assumptions about those moves either. Because to assume makes an ass of u and me. *The lone exception: Jesus Aguilar. I don't see how he fits on Milwaukee's roster with 13 pitchers. If he goes unclaimed through waivers, he does not have the right to refuse an outright assignment. There are currently 277 players under contract in the Brewers' organization, and I have 178 of them with at least a shot at playing full season ball. With the exception of Milwaukee, roster forecasts are split between "Active" and "Bubble" with bubble players basically being guys I couldn't find a spot for at the outset of the season. All players are only listed once, so a bubble player could be an option for a level lower (or higher) in the organization chain. Each roster carries 13 pitchers, a roster alignment the Brewers have typically used. Here we go: Milwaukee Active Starting Pitchers (5): Chase Anderson, Jhoulys Chacin, Zach Davies, Junior Guerra, Brent Suter Relief Pitchers (8): Matt Albers, Jacob Barnes, Oliver Drake, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, Boone Logan Catchers (2): Manny Pina, Jett Bandy Infielders (7): Orlando Arcia, Hernan Perez, Travis Shaw, Eric Sogard, Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar Outfielders (4): Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Domingo Santana, Christian Yelich Disabled List Starting Pitchers (1): Jimmy Nelson Catchers (1): Stephen Vogt Colorado Springs Active Starting Pitchers (5): Bubba Derby, Wade Miley, Jon Perrin, Aaron Wilkerson, Brandon Woodruff Relief Pitchers (8): Tristan Archer, Michael Brady, Erik Davis, J.J. Hoover, Jorge Lopez, Nick Ramirez, Tyler Webb, Taylor Williams Catchers (2): Christian Bethancourt, Tyler Heineman Infielders (6): Jesus Aguilar, Blake Allemand, Ji-Man Choi, Mauricio Dubon, Nick Franklin, Nate Orf Outfielders (4): Keon Broxton, Clint Coulter, Brett Phillips, Kyle Wren Bubble Starting Pitchers: Aaron Brooks, Hiram Burgos, Angel Ventura Relief Pitchers: Tim Dillard, Ernesto Frieri, Radhames Liz, Mike Zagurski Catchers: Dustin Houle Infielders: Jake Hager, Shane Opitz Outfielders: Quintin Berry Biloxi Active Starting Pitchers (6): Phil Bickford, Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Luis Ortiz, Freddy Peralta, Cody Ponce Relief Pitchers (7): Luke Barker, Nate Griep, Brad Kuntz, Jon Olczak, Wuilder Rodriguez, Quintin Torres-Costa, Josh Uhen Catchers (2): Jacob Nottingham, Max McDowell Infielders (6): Javier Betancourt, Dustin DeMuth, Lucas Erceg, Jake Gatewood, Angel Ortega, Wendell Rijo Outfielders (4): Johnny Davis, Trent Grisham, Troy Stokes Jr, Tyrone Taylor Bubble Starting Pitchers: Jorge Ortega Relief Pitchers: Preston Gainey, Tyler Spurlin Catchers: Natanael Mejia Infielders: Gabriel Noriega, Fidel Pena Outfielders: Carolina Active Starting Pitchers (7): Zack Brown, Marcos Diplan, Tom Jankins, Kodi Medeiros, Drake Owenby, Cam Roegner, Trey Supak Relief Pitchers (6): Dan Brown, Jordan Desguin, Alec Kenilvort, Braulio Ortiz, Miguel Sanchez, Chase Williams Catchers (2): Mario Feliciano, Mitch Ghelfi Infielders (7): Luis Aviles, Dallas Carroll, Ronnie Gideon, Devin Hairston, Keston Hiura, Tucker Neuhaus, Wes Wilson Outfielders (3): Ryan Aguilar, Carlos Belonis, Corey Ray Bubble Starting Pitchers: Victor Diaz, Conor Harber, Devin Williams Relief Pitchers: Rodrigo Benoit, Christian Trent, Andrew Vernon Catchers: Cooper Hummel Infielders: Outfielders: Wisconsin Active Starting Pitchers (7): Alec Bettinger, Gabe Friese, Carlos Herrera, Nate Kirby, Josh Pennington, Jayson Rose, Braden Webb Relief Pitchers (6): Parker Bean, Cody Beckman, Nattino Diplan, Dylan File, Matt Hardy, Brandon Presley Catchers (2): KJ Harrison, Payton Henry Infielders (6): Kenny Corey, Gabriel Garcia, Gilbert Lara, Franly Mallen, Trever Morrison, Nick Roscetti Outfielders (4): Zach Clark, Rob Henry, Demi Orimoloye, Tristen Lutz Bubble Starting Pitchers: Harold Chirino, Joaquin De La Cruz, Jake Drossner, Bowden Francis, Nelson Hernandez, Michael Petersen, Christian Taugner, Nash Walters Relief Pitchers: Freisis Adames, Roberto Delgado, Blake Fox, Robbie Hitt, Cody Martin, Kody Rock, Matt Smith Catchers: Brent Diaz, Carlos Leal, Charlie Meyer, Nathan Rodriguez, Robie Rojas Infielders: Julian Jarrard, Chad McClanahan, Pat McInerney, Antonio Pinero Outfielders: Jay Feliciano, Nic Pierre, Joantgel Segovia

Exactly. So much baseball analysis is backward-looking - as if the Brewers are not cognizant of the fact that Miley had command issues last season. The Brewers aren't playing that game here. They see a very talented pitcher who has had issues commanding. They have a talented pitching coach who thinks he can find some success with Miley due to altered mechanics and better pitch sequencing. They signed Miley to a minor league deal. If Miley finds what he had a couple of years ago, the Brewers get one of the better free agent bargains. If he doesn't, there's no real loss.

He was about a 1 WAR pitcher by both Fangraphs and BPro measurements in 2016. Certainly not world beating but again, just fine for a back-end starter. As for "steep decline" - going by his Brooks Baseball data, Miley hasn't experienced a decline in stuff at all. Velocity is about the same as it's been, and if anything part of his command issues with breaking stuff in the recent past may have stemmed from the fact that he's been throwing his slider too hard. The good news is, command is a lot more fixable than a decline in velocity.

Wade Miley is a perfectly fine back-end starter on a team with playoff aspirations. His 3-year average WAR between the 3 main versions is 1.3. He's a lefty who throws 91-93 with sink who had an off year in 2017, just like basically every other starting pitcher on the team he was on did. The level of hate he gets on here is pretty bizarre.

The article links the Brewers to 3B Branlyn Jaraba, the top Colombian prospect. Offensive-first player, might need to move off of third. Nothing else new.

Aroldis Chapman is a generational talent. It's not fair to Knebel to compare the two. Knebel is likely to (though of course not guaranteed to) regress if he can't get his walk rate under control. It's also extremely unlikely that he has a >90% strand rate in 2018. That said, it doesn't make much sense for the Brewers to trade him at this point. He should be at least a solid back-end pitcher and brings value on the mound to a team that can use every bit of it.

And thank you for posting it!

Gindl is actually a pretty decent comp, though Stokes' arm is below average even in LF. Due to his arm, Stokes is a little difficult to place in the OF picture. I think he should be getting more reps in CF, but I've been saying that for a few years now. That said, he does a lot of things well, if nothing he does is outstanding. He's really good at putting the ball in the air and can put a punch in it on the pull side. He's not super fast, but he's a good baserunner. He'll take walks. He's been one of my favorite players in the system for awhile, and I am intrigued to see if he can keep making enough contact to make hit hitting profile work. So far, so good with a career wRC+ of 119.

RF arm strength is also more important than LF because typically the cut-off man from RF is the second baseman, and the second baseman usually has the weakest arm on the infield. The closer to the infield the 2B can relay the throw, the better. On the other hand, the shortstop often has the best arm on the field, which gives the leftfielder more leeway to make a shorter throw. Anecdotally, just in yesterday's game the Reds' RF had a throw that rolled into second base, which allowed Arcia to score. Had the throw been even on one hop, Arcia may well have been out at the plate. And had the throw come in from left, the SS probably cuts it off and nails Arcia.

Nope.

Yelich's arm would be a pretty big liability in RF. Then again, unlike Santana he'd actually be able to get to and catch the ball.

This is just my speculation but the timing fits - guessing that Arizona was looking at one of our outfielders, but went with Souza instead.

They’d only have to keep him in the minors for about two weeks to gain an extra year of control.

That's correct. The Brewers won't be able to offer Arrieta a QO at the end of his contract, be it in 2 years or 5 years. Unless the CBA changes again.

Do you think it's Santana or someone else?

I know this is getting the topic side-tracked, but... Contreras will be 26, Rizzo will be 28, Zobrist will be 37 (if you think Zobrist is not going to get significant playing time under Joe Maddon...), Bryant will be 26, and Heyward will be 28. With players peaking earlier and earlier, I don't think it's any guarantee that this lineup will be dominant 3-4 years down the road.

For what it's worth, Pena is still listed as an active player, on Biloxi's roster. Perhaps just keeping the option open in case of a spate of injuries. Similar to Liu Rodriguez a few years back. A little disappointed not to see Michele Vassalotti on the spring roster, but my guy Aaron Familia is there so I can't complain.

Guys, back to Stroman please. Anything about High Heat 19 or Al Bethke after this point in this thread is gonna be deleted.

I don't necessarily ascribe this to the being my definition of an ace or TOR, but I thought it would be interesting to compare the different versions of WAR and see where they agreed. I took the top 30 pitchers by WAR from FanGraphs, B-R, and BPro, and eliminated anyone who did not appear on all three lists. So in a way, there's some "agreement" that these were the best pitchers last year. Call that ace, or top of the rotation, amazeballs, or nothing whatsoever, but interesting to me nonetheless. And goes without saying last year's best pitchers won't all be next year's best pitchers. There were 17 pitchers who made the cut, descending by average WAR: Corey Kluber Chris Sale Max Scherzer Stephen Strasburg Zack Greinke Luis Severino Justin Verlander Carlos Carrasco Gio Gonzalez Jacob deGrom Aaron Nola Clayton Kershaw Marcus Stroman Yu Darvish Jimmy Nelson Ervin Santana Michael Fulmer So trade for one of those guys I guess. Except Nelson, the Brewers can't trade for him.