And That
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Everything posted by And That
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The other side of that is that because he relies on a 2-seamer so heavily, when he misses location - which he is prone to do - he gets clobbered. Above average LD% and way, way above average HR/FB. Guessing all three of those metrics revert somewhat next year, but unless he finds something to compliment his hard fastball, I'd expect lots of rockets to go along with the Ks. -
Nailed it! And then we can trade him for Delmonico again.
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Is Nelson even guaranteed a rotation spot at this point? An ugly spring training might incentivize the Brewers to send him down to the minors and stop his service clock while he works out of the suck hole.
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What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
And That replied to pete's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Not in love with that proposed deal, but Imani Abdullah would be a nice piece - very Stearnsian type younger guy who could break out in the next year or two. -
I'm a little surprised Brinson isn't an A-, as Sickles called him a B+/A- last year, ultimately landing on B+. It is pretty interesting to look at Sickles' stuff against the enthusiastic backdrop of the BPro folks. Sickles does rely more on number crunching than most, so perhaps he saw the lack of AA progress from Brinson and decided not to move him up.
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Thanks!
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I'm not really sure what the second part of that sentence means, but it is a value issue. You don't create value by spending as much as or more than what someone is likely worth and taking away opportunity from players who are making less than they are likely worth. If the Brewers were contending, it would be a different story. But they aren't. Again, I don't hate the deal, it's just in my mind more likely than not a meaningless use of a roster spot at this point in the talent cycle. I think signing a guy with spotty command whose only plus pitch is a 2-seam fastball, and lets about 2/3 of balls hit against him into the air, is not a great fit for Miller Park. Maybe Stearns and company have other analytics and scouting that would suggest his slider can be improved, or that the way he pitches will keep fly balls in the park more regularly than he did last year. If the Brewers sign him, I hope he does really well and they get a really great package of prospects in return for him at the deadline. Just dubious that either of those things will happen.
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Why is the assumption that developing a closer in the form of Knebel/Barnes/Peralta/Lopez/etc would lead to an immediate trade of said closer? The Brewers should begin developing relievers to contend, not to trade away. (Maybe with the exception of Peralta/Torres given their control remaining.) Any innings Feliz pitches takes away higher leverage opportunities from guys who still might be here in a year or two.
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I'm not really even that negative about it, more nonplussed. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if they sign Feliz. I might just lament the opportunity passed over to develop an in-house closer for when the Brewers are ready to contend again, perhaps as soon as the next year or two from now. Would definitely be worse ways to light $6MM on fire.
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Eovaldi had a pretty big spike in HR rate last year too, which is probably why the Yankees released him. He throws hard, but that's about it - career K rate of 6.6/9. Might be worth seeing if he can pick up a couple of mph moving into the pen - if he can get to 98/99 out of the pen that would get interesting. Looks like he tried picking up a split-finger fastball last year as fangraphs has him throwing that pitch 22% of the time but not previously in his career. Maybe that's what wasn't working for him. Bullpen with fastball/slider would be intriguing; maybe Guerra can show him how to throw the splitter better. Eovaldi and the other pitcher I referenced, Henderson Alvarez, are both coming off of injury and I wouldn't sign either unless it was a multi-year deal. Eovaldi actually might not pitch in 2017 at all. Again, I'm looking for what might help the Brewers when they are ready to contend, not who will accumulate counting stats in a non-contending year.
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And Tommy John surgery. He was a 50 OFP prospect before surgery, maybe teetering into 55, with likely landing spot in the 45-50 range. Now that's all a question mark, and it is possible the Marlins knew about some structural issues before they traded him. The Melancon deal netted the Pirates two 45-ish guys, one who is a reliever and the other who likely will be. Joe Smith netted some random dude. Tyler Clippard netted someone whom the Diamondbacks thought highly enough of to lose on waivers shortly thereafter. Mike Montgomery basically netted Dan Vogelbach, who is a good bat but can't play in the NL. Jeffress basically netted Ryan Cordell. I've seen the term "nice haul" used a handful of times for what the insinuation was the Brewers would be expected to get for signing Feliz. Ignoring the fact that Feliz might not pitch well enough to be traded at all, if the above returns would be considered "nice hauls" - I'm willing to acknowledge the semantic difference and move on.
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The downside is the opportunity cost of not allowing a younger, controllable pitcher a shot at the closer's role in a year when having a closer won't be that important. I don't think that downside is worth the upside of whatever it is you may or may not get for Feliz in July.
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Basically, I'd rather they focus on spending money on guys that could be around for when the club is contending, like Hwang or a creative deal with a Henderson Alvarez or Nate Eovaldi. Spending money on a guy to try to turn into another guy who might be around seems like a wasted step.
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But, Milwaukee will be on the hook for at least $4MM. And up to $6MM if they can't deal him (or have to send cash to deal him). That's a pretty substantial hurdle to get excess value out of. The Sneed and Rogers deals also need to be thought of as one possible outcome of a trade - not all deals will work out that well. So it's not only getting a prospect (or prospects) worth more than what they're paying Feliz, it's having those guys also turn into valuable major leaguers.
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Sneed and Rogers didn't cost $6MM. Again, the best return for a non-elite reliever on a short deal at the deadline last year was the Rodney-Paddack swap. Is Chris Paddack (who incidentally is now hurt and out for the year due to TJ surgery) worth more than $6 million bucks? And Rodney had to post an obscenely low ERA to get Paddack.
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Didn't say he had no value, said he wasn't creating any value. Likely deadline return on him, if he produces, is probably going to be pretty light, and at a cost of $6MM. If they don't trade him, he's a closer on a 70-75 win club and is pitching for someone else next year*. Would be a good signing for a club on the cusp of/in contention. Brewers are not that club. *Assuming it's a one-year deal, which it seems to be. If it's a 2-year deal, it's more defensible.
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I would urge you to look at the returns on non-elite relievers on short term deals from around the 2016 deadline. Not much payoff.
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Thornburg was behind two controllable guys in Smith and Jeffress. Feliz is on a 1-year deal. It's just a wheel-spinning move.
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I don't really care about the money either, it's just not creating any value. There's a lot, lot more upside in letting Knebel or Barnes develop as a closer.
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If recent history is a guide, it won't be.
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If the $6.5MM figure is right, then the Brewers gave him a $2.6MM raise as a reward for that HR rate spike. Seems to be kind of the opposite of buying low. Even if they think it was a fluke/can fix the underlying issue, what is the upside? Unless he has a first half similar to Rodney did in SD last year, they likely aren't getting anything much of value at the deadline.
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If the Brewers wanted a HR-prone hard thrower with spotty control to be their closer, they already had Corey Knebel.
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The fan scouting reports on Fangraphs (I KNOW FANGRAPHS OMG HOW CLICHE) seem to indicate a decline in defensive ability for Pagan over the past few years. His overall grades since 2013: 60, 55, 39, 32. He's also 35 going on 36, and missed a lot of time due to injury in 2013-2014, so it's not difficult to think that decline in grading might have some merit. He never had a great arm, and he's certainly not as fast as he was at his peak with the Mets a half dozen years ago. He was at one point a good defender, but once being a good defender playing on a generally strong defensive team does not make him a good defender at present.
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What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
And That replied to pete's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
And just to note, if you're quoting AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, you're quoting derived statistics as well. That WAR is a more complicated formula than OPS does not make OPS any less of a formula, and both are completely fallible if used outside of their intended purpose. WAR has more information baked in, which I think is a good thing, and more handily compares batters to pitchers. Sort of like the OFP scouting grade on a prospect. -
I think I remember Keith Law saying his lists would be out at the end of January/beginning of February, so one more to add to the pile of things to look out for.
