And That

I'd be a little surprised to see Taylor Williams back in the rotation full time. With all his arm problems, do the Brewers want to press their luck on ramping up his innings and slowing his development by having him try to refine a changeup? I would think they would prefer to have him air it out over shorter bursts. His FB/SL combination should work great in the bullpen.

While Hwang is looking for a 40-man spot, which he'll probably get, I would not assume he'd be a lock to make the MLB roster. So he wouldn't necessarily have to fit with Perez/Shaw/Arcia/Villar all at the same time if his contract permits him to be optioned to Colorado Springs.

To be accurate, Thames has a 3 year deal with a team option for a fourth year. He's eligible for free agency after that, per his contract.

Cody Decker and Tim Dillard on the same team - OMG.

There's also an opportunity cost to signing a cheap veteran arm to close out games. There's a lot more valuation upside in giving Knebel/Barnes high leverage/end of game opportunities than there is giving those some opportunities to a Santiago Casilla. The Brewers have to weigh development of the guys they already have rostered against the odds of increasing the value of a guy that is still unsigned 5-6 weeks out from pitchers and catchers reporting. The guys monty listed likely will command a healthy bit higher salary than Storen as well. The Brewers basically blew a couple million on Boyer/Capuano last year, so it makes me wonder if they'll be hesitant to commit salary to a veteran pitcher unless it comes at a really good value.

It's not.

That's the point though, at least judging by last year's market, you almost certainly aren't getting a Toussaint-level (or at least at the level Toussaint was a year and a half ago) prospect for a reliever you're just signing now. Unless Storen is amazing and posts an immaculate ERA, they're probably paying a couple million for this guy or maybe this guy. Again, I don't think it's a bad signing and I understand why contending teams wouldn't be as willing to take a chance on Storen (though maybe they should). It's just the idea that scrap pile relievers can suddenly be worth their weight in prospect gold at the deadline doesn't seem to be true.

How often does a non-elite reliever get flipped for a strong return right after signing a FA contract, though? Fernando Rodney posted a ridiculously low ERA in the first half last year, and that netted Chris Paddack a month before the deadline, who might develop into a #3/#4 if he develops a breaking ball at some point, and if he can stay healthy. He's a nice prospect but just had TJ surgery - strong return? Maybe? On the other hand, if you look at the returns for Tyler Clippard, Jason Grilli, Brad Ziegler, Joe Smith, or Zach Duke around the deadline last year, they range from middling to meh. So if the Reds' plan is to spend $2-3 million on Storen and best-case end up with a Chris Paddack, why not just call up teams and start offering them $2-3 million for a Chris Paddack-type prospect? Cut out the middle man and give someone you want to keep around a chance. Not saying it's a bad move to sign Storen, it's not, but the Reds should be hoping for long-term value from Storen, not a scratch-off ticket.

It was reported a month or so ago that Braun made one change to his list from last year, though I do not believe what the change actually is has been reported.

The scouting consensus seems to be that the uptick in power he showed last year is not sustainable against better pitching, so he profiles either as a utility player or possibly a second/third division starter.

BP Brewers Top 10. You need a subscription to read the player detail, though I will note that this is the first time I have seen Trent Clark's arm rated as good-enough for right field. Can't agree with that. I'm also not certain of the argument for placing Ponce above Diplan, Woodruff, or maybe even Bickford. Ponce's velocity was down pretty far at some points last year, and his command remains quite inconsistent. That's not true of the other three I just mentioned, and I don't think that Ponce has a definitively higher upside than those guys, either. From the author's comments, I think Diplan was #11 - he mentioned his editor had him remove Diplan from the top 10 ostensibly because Ponce is 6'6 and Diplan isn't. Ok? Neither Bickford nor Woodruff were mentioned anywhere in the write-up. Bickford I kind of get, but completely glossing over Woodruff is odd. FB in the low-mid 90's, plus slider, improving command and minor league leader in Ks gets you nowhere, apparently.

Clark's arm is below average, but I'd think would be passable for CF if he can stick there (which is an open question). It's certainly not in Khris Davis/Juan Pierre territory.

His wOBA this year was better than Brinson in AA, better than Arcia in AAA, and better than both Clark and Ray (incidentally, Phillips is only 4 months older than Ray). Did he have a below average batting average? Yes. Did he strike out too much? Yep. Did he do other things offensively that offset those shortcomings? Absolutely. His batting stance needs work, and that is probably the culprit for his low BA (and BABIP, which was 30-40 about points under career average). I'm optimistic he will make the mechanical adjustments at the plate, and there is still plenty of offensive potential there, not to speak of his baserunning and arm.

Everyone, weighted by PA.

Just don't understand the heavy knock on him to the point he's outside the Top 10 and Top 100. Simple, he had a bad year. Except he didn't. His wOBA was top 30% in the Southern League.

Scott Serigstad. After doing some research on him, he seems to both generate weak contact and induce ground balls when he's actually executing his pitches. Yes, his ERA and H/9 in Helena were ridiculous, but I do believe there is some talent there. Same goes for Thomas Jankins, though his results were obviously more in line with the above-described skill set.

Hard to disagree with any of the rankings, though I firmly believe Phillips is still a top 10 prospect.

Not going to paste all of the scouting reports, but there was an interesting comp of Erceg to Matt Carpenter.

To what extent it is true or not is hard to tell, but yesterday's Cafardo piece on Braun notes that there is some devaluation of Braun's control due to the impact a second positive test for PEDs could have on his ability to contribute in the coming years.

Lara turned 19 about 6 weeks ago. We've been talking about him forever, but even if he repeats rookie ball, he's just fine from a prospect age standpoint.

I believe at this time last year the Brewers were projected to be the third or fourth worst by the Depth Charts projections. So, that's how that turned out. Depth Charts projections are, for my money, not great.

There's an important difference between a projection and a prediction. A projection is a hypothetical interpretation of existing data without assuming any specific level of certainty. A prediction is a projection, except that a prediction seeks to produce a level of certainty that a projection does not. For instance, financial professionals can get in a lot of hot water if they say they can predict something, whereas in certain situations they won't be held liable if they use the term projection. (And in some situations, they can't even do that, they have to forecast). All of the various projection models out there - ZIPS, PECOTA, Marcel, etc., do not make a prediction of certainty at the player level. It would be virtually impossible to do that because there isn't enough data gathered within the course of a season for an individual player to make anything other than a vague guess at future outcomes. Those same models do aim for some certainty on league-wide production, and generally get that more or less right, and could probably be considered a prediction at that higher level. Team-level projections fall somewhere in between, and I guess it could be argued that seasonal win totals are predictions, though I doubt the creators of the analytics would say that. A forecast, as I usually see the term used, is using data that occurred in the past and assuming it will continue along undisturbed in the future. No hypotheticals and no interpretation like projections (and therefor predictions). Strictly speaking, a forecast would actually probably be more useful on the individual player level, i.e. Braun did this last year, so let's assume he'll do it again next year. For established players, this is going to be pretty accurate most of the time.

Oliver throws hard (93-95 at last report), but has had trouble developing a breaking ball and keeping command of his pitches.

Maybe not entirely.

MLB Pipeline's first mock draft (yes, already). Callis has the Brewers taking Virginia Cavaliers 1B Pavin Smith. Mayo has the Brewers taking Kentucky prep OF/RHP Jordon Adell.