Matt Breen

Thanks for posting that, very cool indeed Yeah, that was pretty cool.

Good memory. He did have concussion issues - but they have not been a problem since 2014. http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2017/02/alex_avila_concussions.html

Say you can get Luc at 2yr/$10M, do you pull the trigger? I would probably do so (but with qualifications). I mean, the guy's defense is still solid. And you have to think he'll rebound somewhat from last year's hitting issues. I mean, look at 2016 - .855 OPS and 24 HR. That's great for a catcher. I guess I'd do it as long as he's given a really thorough physical, and there are no red flags with regards to watching him play last year (such as out of shape, severe bat speed decline - that sort of thing). Otherwise, there's a ton of upside for that price. At worse he's probably better than Vogt. I thought coming into the off season that Lucroy would get $12-15M per year. Crazy to think he could be had for half that. I'm betting he does a one year deal with someone where he can play full time - try and rebuilt his value.

I'm really surprised at how low of a deal Avila got. I figured it would be $8M or something like that. I was never thrilled with Vogt, and a guy like Avila (left handed hitter, two years younger than Vogt, .800+ OPS last year, solid defense) would have been nice alternative. And if he was called upon to handle a heavier workload (in case Pina regressed), he could have done that.

Catcher Alex Avila has signed 2-year deal for $8.25M deal with Diamondbacks. That's total - not yearly. The deal is surprisingly low (or maybe not so surprisingly considering how slow the FA market has been). Many had predicted Avila to get $6-8M per season. A left-handed hitting catcher, Avila hit 14 HR in 311 ABs last year with an .834 OPS. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/diamondbacks-alex-avila-nearing-deal.html

Money aside, I go: 1) Greinke 2) Darvish 3) Arrieta I just think Greinke has a couple more seasons of really good pitching left in him. I'm not sure about the other guys. Even with the age and the extra mileage on his arm, I see Greinke as a smart, durable player who will keep it up as long as the other guys - and at a higher level. Plus he's a good batter. Gotta like that. All three guys have red flags, but in the end, I'd take Greinke if given the chance (although I don't think Arizona will deal him).

This is if people are using bWAR. If you look at fWAR, Fangraphs puts Archer's rating at of 5.2, 3.2 and 4.6 over the last three years. Baseball Reference puts it at 4.3, 1.2 and 1.8. That's a huge difference, and not something to be ignored. What's the difference between the two systems? Here you go: FanGraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as a baseline. However, given that infield fly balls are very similar to strikeouts in terms of being automatic outs, they treat them as strikeouts in WAR calculation even though they aren’t included in the general FIP calculation. In addition, Fangraphs includes a leverage component when calculating reliever WAR. Baseball-Reference uses a pitcher’s runs allowed and then adjusts that value based on the overall quality of their defense that year. https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/ https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml In the end, Fangraphs seems to value strikeouts more than b-r.com. Although, perhaps that's just my observation. To me I like looking at both ratings, and go from there. I think it's a big mistake to take either as gospel. Heck, taking WAR at gospel is a mistake. And I think the authors of WAR will tell you that as well. Big differences between the systems - like the one with Archer - are not that common (but not that uncommon). You just have to take them both into account when judging the guy (along with other factors).

Welcome BrewCity22. I think your question is a good one. People have talked about Manaea and Lowrie - but it's been a while and I don't recall what threads. I'd suggest starting a new thread on Manaea if you are interested in more focused conversation. Trying to start it in this thread might cause it to get lost. Plus, there might be offers that aren't specifically about Santana that people will want to throw out.

If you could sign Darvish, Greinke or Arrieta to a 4-year contract, who would it be? Rank them - 1-3. Don't worry about money.

I think this is high. 2018: $31M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34M 2019: $31.5M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34.5M 2020: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M 2021: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M TOTAL: $138.5M + $2M trade kicker = $140.5M Am I missing something? I've generally heard that Greinke had $140M owed to him - so the $160M came as a surprise. I've got: 2018:31M, 2019:31.5M, 2020:32M, 2021:$32M = 126.5M "Trade Bonus" 2M Signing Bonus Deferred at 3M x 4 more years 12M 10M deferred for both 2016 and 2017 20M I have 160.5M, is that right? I see what you are saying. I had not included the $20M in deferred money from 2016-17. That was part of his salary from that year - just paid later. That money is already earned and can't be lost in any fashion. The Diamondbacks are responsible for that chunk of change because he earned it in the years employed by them. So if Arizona traded him today (no money involved), they would be responsible for the $20M in deferred payments that were earned in 2016-17. The team acquiring Greinke would be responsible for the deferred payments only earned in the years he played for them. It's not as if the last man holding the contract is responsible for all of the deferred payments. And I don't think you can negotiate monies that have already been earned. Meaning I don't think Arizona could say something like, "Hey, we'll include Player A and B if you pick up deferred payments Zack is due for the time he pitched with us in 2016 and 2017. I think I am right about this stuff - but I'm not positive.

I'm going to take this question with another question. If Greinke was a free agent right now - what would you pay him? More than Arrieta and Darvish? Less? I'm going to guess that if Greinke was a free agent, he could get a 4-year $100M deal - even at his age. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I'm going to run with it. If the Brewers wanted him and were willing to pay that price, I'd have them retain the deferred payments for themselves - which would take $42.5M from his salary (for us). That would take his payout down to $98M over four years. We don't need to be paying tens of millions in deferred payments in the future. In return, I'd be willing to give AZ a guy like Broxton or a mid-range prospect or two. Nothing particularly good. Perhaps I'm misjudging the value of Greinke. Maybe he'd be worth more. Or less. But I think he'd be a great asset for the team - at least for a couple of years. Obviously, he's a good pitcher. But he's also a good fielder and top-notch hitter (at least as far as pitchers go). Those are nice things to have. All this said, I just don't know if Arizona would deal Greinke. They are a borderline contender - and losing Greinke would really hurt them. I would think they would wait until the trade deadline and see where they are in the standings - and then make a move. If they move Zack now in a deal like I just said - they are eating $40M or more of salary - making his deal even worse. But maybe they want the financial flexibility really, really badly. If so, it just reinforces how dumb the signing was for them. They'd end up paying Greinke $100M or so for just two years of work. Again, I just don't see them doing that.

I think this is high. 2018: $31M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34M 2019: $31.5M salary + $3M signing bonus = $34.5M 2020: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M 2021: $32M salary + $3M signing bonus = $35M TOTAL: $138.5M + $2M trade kicker = $140.5M Am I missing something? I've generally heard that Greinke had $140M owed to him - so the $160M came as a surprise.

I'm going to agree with the other posters and say that Arrieta is no longer a possibility. I'm not saying impossible, but unlikely. Even if you can get him for $20M/year, that's taking our payroll pretty high. And we have to aware that next off season we are going to be hit with quite a few salary increases. Villar, Shaw, Santana, Broxton, Davies, Nelson, Knebel, Perez - all of these guys are either arby eligible for the first or second time. And then there are raises for Yelich, Anderson, Thames, Cain and Jeffress. And there will be no big salaries coming off the books (only guys I currently see are Vogt, Sogard, Logan, Gallardo). Thus, I don't see the team pushing their salary ceiling this year - knowing full well we are going to have salaries go up around $25M next off season. That's just a guess. I have no proof or anything -- just looking at the financial commitments for 2019 is going to make us be wary of any more big time signings.

Corbin gets hit pretty hard by right handed batters. This trend has gotten worse as he's gotten older. To me, it really limits his upside as a starter. Last year, 50 pitchers threw 100+ innings against right handed batters. Corbin gave up the 44th most hits of those 50 guys. In 2016, there were 51 pitchers who three 100+ innings against right handers. He was the worst in the league. He is very hard on lefties, so he's managed to make things work - to a degree. I just look at him and see 2017 as a best case scenario for the guy unless he can teach himself a new trick. Otherwise, he's destined to be a lefty reliever - which I think he could be really good at.

I was thinking the same thing. I'm going to have a lot of work to do on the next list.

The Brewers could, theoretically, still add a FA starter and make a trade or a pitcher. After the Cain signing, I'm not sure they can sign Arrietta or Darvish, but what about Cobb. Add in a quality arm via trade - Salazar or Archer or whomever - and you have a pretty good rotation.

HighHeat posted over in the Santana thread that Domingo will be dealt to an American League team - possibly as early as Friday. and that there is a 2nd deal in the works as well... You are correct. I forgot about that. But now he's going fishing. He's gone until Tuesday. No more tidbits.

Yeah, that's been something that's been brought up quite a bit. He should be thrilled to be out of Miami.

The team just traded arguably their two top OF prospects. I think the onus is on Grisham and Ray to start fulfilling their potential. I imagine both will be at AA this year. Time to put up or shut up. Exactly. Let's see how these guys can do. The OF is fine for a few years - they can be ready when they are ready (if ever).

HighHeat posted over in the Santana thread that Domingo will be dealt to an American League team - possibly as early as Friday.

I was thinking something similar. Just that Cain will be nice role model - a guy who won a World Series, works hard, does the little things right, etc., etc.

I agree with this about Archer/Santana. It's a filling one hole to create another. And I think they need Archer much more than they need Santana. All that said, I'm not sure what they think of Santana. I wonder if Santana, Woodruff and other pieces would work. Just thinking out loud. For what it's worth, I heard that Tampa did not like Brinson as a centerpiece of an Archer deal. They had concerns about his hit tool.

If this is accurate (being willing to go to $125m, not your projections of course), that opens up the possibility of two significant acquisitions yet, IMO. Another thing to consider. Every major league team - including Milwaukee - will get a one time $50M payout this spring. This is for the sale of the MLB digital properties to Disney. Who knows, we may take some of this money and use it this year.

I'm trying to get a feel for how much payroll space we have left to work with to make moves. It's hard to say for sure without knowing the limit, but I don't think we have much left. Trading for Kipnis seems unlikely at this point. We were at $75M with Yelich. You can say it is $71 when you deduct the $4M of deferred money that goes to Braun down the road. If we own Cain $18M, that puts us around $90M. Some history. The Brewers had a $103M payroll in 2013 - their highest. With inflation, that would be about $125M today. That would leave us with upwards of $25-30M to play with (assuming we are willing to go to $125M - which might be a stretch). The guys at Fangraphs just talked about this: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lorenzo-cain-signing-probably-isnt-brewers-last-of-winter/

Is Joshua Kusnick still Lorenzo's agent? If so, the man did good for his client.