Matt Breen

I think there's some possibility that things open up a bit, but it's a risk. Some teams probably have money - it's just a matter of where to spend it. The Nationals, for instance, may be interested in a starting pitcher. But if they don't get what they want, perhaps they add Lucroy. Still, you have to wonder if anyone (outside of the Top 10 or so players) will get more than two years.

The following is a rundown of the Top 50 free agents (per MLB Trade Rumors). I've bolded the players still available - which is about 1/3 of the guys on the list. Looking through these players, it looks like quality relievers got more than predicted. With the exception of Addison Reed, almost every decent reliever got more - or close to - what was predicted. Also, you can see that there are very few longer term deals. Only two - thus far - over three years. Teams appear to be giving a bit more money but fewer years (just a generalization). Other observations: corner bats are not getting great deals (or any deals). This happened last year as well. Still, the best bats appear to waiting for the dominos to fall (meaning JD Martinez first). The big backlog is at the top of the list, where 7 of 11 of the top guys are still unsigned. I'm guessing the starting pitchers still get good coin, but maybe not quite as many years as they thought. Also, teams willing to pay big bucks for relievers may be gone, which could be a problem for Greg Holland. Moustakas may be a numbers victim as well - a good corner player that just doesn't have a team willing to pay him top dollar. Guys like him and Morrison may end up signing one or two year deals. It will be interesting to see how things play out, but it appears that guys signing early got the good deals. And now some teams may be getting squeezed on their budgets. 1. Yu Darvish – PREDICTION: Cubs. Six years, $160MM. ACUTAL: Cubs. Six years, $126M 2. J.D. Martinez – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Six years, $150MM. 3. Eric Hosmer – PREDICTION: Royals. Six years, $132MM. ACTUAL: Padres, eight years, $144M (or opt out after five years, $105M) 4. Jake Arrieta – PREDICTION: Brewers. Four years, $100MM. 5. Masahiro Tanaka – PREDICTION: Phillies. Five years, $100MM. ACTUAL: Opted into Yankees contract. 6. Mike Moustakas – PREDICTION: Braves. Five years, $85MM. 7. Lorenzo Cain – PREDICTION: Giants. Four years, $70MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Five years, $80M 8. Wade Davis – PREDICTION: Astros. Four years, $60MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $52M 9. Lance Lynn – PREDICTION: Rangers. Four years, $56MM. 10. Greg Holland – PREDICTION: Cardinals. Four years, $50MM. 11. Alex Cobb – PREDICTION: Twins. Four years, $48MM. 12. Carlos Santana – PREDICTION: Indians. Three years, $45MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Three years, $60M 13. Zack Cozart – PREDICTION: Padres. Three years, $42MM. ACTUAL: Padres. Three years, $38M 14. Jay Bruce – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Three years, $39MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Three years, $39M 15. Logan Morrison – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Three years, $36MM. 16. Addison Reed – PREDICTION: Cubs. Four years, $36MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $16,75M 17. Todd Frazier – PREDICTION: Mets. Three years, $33MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $17M 18. Mike Minor – PREDICTION: Dodgers. Four years, $28MM. ACTUAL: Rangers. Three years, $28M 19. Brandon Morrow – PREDICTION: Rockies. Three years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $21M 20. Jonathan Lucroy – PREDICTION: Rockies. Two years, $24MM. 21. CC Sabathia – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Yankees. One year, $10M 22. Yonder Alonso – PREDICTION: Angels. Two years, $22MM. ACTUAL: Indians. Two years, $16M 23. Carlos Gomez – PREDICTION: Royals. Two years, $22MM. 24. Juan Nicasio – PREDICTION: Twins. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Mariners. Two years, $17M 25. Bryan Shaw – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M 26. Michael Brantley – PREDICTION: White Sox. Two years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Indians exercised option. 27. Andrew Cashner – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Orioles. Two years, $16M 28. Neil Walker – PREDICTION: Brewers. Two years, $20MM. 29. Tyler Chatwood – PREDICTION: Phillies. Three years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Three years, $39M 30. Jake McGee – Cubs. PREDICTION: Three years, $18MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M 31. Jaime Garcia – PREDICTION: Royals. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Blue Jays. One year, $10M 32. Alex Avila – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Diamondbacks. Two years, $8.25M 33. Jhoulys Chacin – PREDICTION: Reds. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Two years, $16M. 34. Welington Castillo – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: White Sox. Two years, $15M 35. Eduardo Nunez – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Red Sox. One year, $6M. 36. Anthony Swarzak – PREDICTION: Brewers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $14M 37. Steve Cishek – PREDICTION: Rangers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $13M 38. Brandon Kintzler – PREDICTION: Nationals. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $10M 39. Jon Jay – PREDICTION: Rangers. Two years, $14MM. 40. Carlos Gonzalez – PREDICTION: Orioles. One year, $12MM. 41. Tommy Hunter – PREDICTION: Braves. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $18M 42. Jarrod Dyson – PREDICTION: Pirates. Two years, $12MM. 43. Pat Neshek – PREDICTION: Mariners. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $16.25 44. Tony Watson – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Giants. Three years, $7M 45. Howie Kendrick – PREDICTION: Giants. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $7M 46. Jason Vargas – PREDICTION: Orioles. One year, $10MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $16M 47. Chris Tillman – PREDICTION: Tigers. One year, $10MM. ACTUAL: Orioles. One year, $3M 48. Lucas Duda – PREDICTION: Mariners. One year, $6MM. 49. Michael Pineda – PREDICTION: Rays. Two years, $6MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $10M 50. Miles Mikolas – PREDICTION: Padres. Two years, $10MM. ACTUAL: Cardinals. Two years, $15.5M Source: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Welcome aboard, brewerhuman. As for Cobb, I'm guessing we only go for one more starter at this time. Another starter sends Woodruff to the minors - and I don't think he has anything else to prove there. Time to let him play. Not adding another starter does open us up to an early season injury, but I think we should look at Nelson and Burnes as possible mid-season additions should someone go down or be ineffective. Otherwise, you have Suter and Gallardo to handle spot starts. Just my guess.

Godley is an interesting player. He was a reliever in the minors before being converted to starting in 2015. So he doesn't have a ton of mileage on his arm. He put up some good numbers last year, but was pretty awful in 2016. I guess the times I've seen him he's not been very good looking, but that's only a few games. I guess I'd like to know what other people think about the guy. If Arizona likes Godley, he would seem like the least likely type of player they'd want to give up. They need cheap, controllable pitching - just like us. But who knows.

If Arrieta had an opt out and used it - that means he did really well. The Brewers would then be able to recoup any draft pick simply by giving him a qualifying offer. In fact, it would be a better pick than what we gave up (I think qualifying offer picks are at the end of the 1st round - but I might be wrong). We'd only be giving up a 3rd or 4th round pick to sign Arrieta.

gracias, sir.

Arrieta had a six year offer but hasn't signed because he wants a minimum of 26.5 million per season (159 million)? Hosmer has two offers near 140 million dollars but he's refused those because he wants at least an 8 year deal? I guess I would say, is this true? Does Hosmer really have two 7 year/$140M dollar offers? And no one knows what Arrietta has been offered. The number quoted was what he reportedly asked for. Is that number true? And what has he really been offered? I say this because there were lots of earlier reports that Darvish was going to get $25-30M per season. Those never panned out. The best offer he got was $21M/year - still a ton of money (and years) - but not the $150M+ many thought he'd get. And all the supposed interest and offers from other teams - Twins, Brewers - was a lot less than reported. Perhaps it's all true. Perhaps Arrieta is holding firm for a $25M+ offer for five or six years. And Hosmer does have a couple of $140M offers on the table. We shall see what happens. I guess I'm not going to believe stuff until we actually see what they sign for.

MrAllen, thanks for the work. Did you use fWAR or bWAR for you stats? Just curious.

SeaBass, you can always hit the 'edit' button at the bottom of any of your posts and click 'delete' if you just want to remove something. But thanks for taking the time to explain what you did - and thanks for trying to keep the thread on topic.

Cire52 is correct. HH19 doesn't have a twitter account - he has stated so himself. I've deleted the post - and those that followed - to prevent confusion.

Did Stroman have Tommy John surgery a few years ago? If, not what caused him to miss most of 2015? I just can't remember.

The Brewers have stated they want to obtain a quality pitcher this offseason, so maybe Arrieta works out. I'm just skeptical because it really pushes the payroll (which is around $90M). And not just for this year - for future seasons. The team is likely to pay out $25M+ in raises and arby awards next offseason (without a lot of payroll coming off the books). That could push payroll to $130M+ in 2019. Not sure if that is feasible. If it is, Arrieta would be interesting to add. I'd love to save our higher prospects, such as Burnes and Hiura and Woodruff. A rotation of Arrieta, Anderson, Davies, Chacin and Woodruff would be something I'd go into battle with (along with Nelson and Burnes being ready mid-season). Still, something about Arrieta scares me - in particular the way the Cubs have avoided him. As people have said - what do they know that we don't? Kind of scares me. I do think Arrieta would come with a chip on his shoulder - and an angry Arrieta looking for payback against the Cubbies might be a sweet thing.

Former major league pitcher Esteban Loaiza has been arrested in San Diego for possession of heroin and cocaine over 20 kilograms, possession of narcotics for sale, and possession and transportation of narcotics for sale. Amazing what a guy who made $43M in his career can get involved in. Loaiza pitched for the Pirates, Rangers, Blue Jays, White Sox, Yankees, Nationals, Athletics and Dodgers. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22408066/esteban-loaiza-former-mlb-pitcher-arrested-20-kilograms-drugs

I think this is all a good point, except I personally would take the part where you said the owners took the suggestion about long(er) contracts and said "that's a good idea" [wink wink, nudge nudge] and insert that it's more about the luxury tax. Nobody was bidding on Darvish except for the Cubs, the Dodgers (but only if they got a taker to get them to fit Darvish under the luxury tax threshold), and some small market teams. That throws everything off for Darvish and the entire market beneath him. I think next year we'll see long contracts again. The owners wanted to reset the number and in a sense they colluded to all [wink wink, nudge nudge] conveniently do this when they knew they'd maybe boost spending again for the big free agent crop next year. You mention something important here that I think should be noted - without direct proof of collusion - let's see how this plays out next year. This may be one of those years where the forces have combined for a perfect storm and suppressed the free agent market. In the long run, it may be blip. By next year, perhaps money will be flowing a lot more freely. This does nothing to assuage the feelings - and pocketbooks - of the players this season - especially those who are free agents and are taking contracts they feel are below market. But maybe this is the weird offseason where things just aligned badly for the players. Just speculating.

We have revenues rising and franchises making more money than ever. I can see where the players would be frustrated that their salaries aren’t going up at the same time. I’ve said that there are likely many factors for the slow market (teams being smarter, not as many teams in the market to ‘win’, saving for next year, the luxury tax line, weak free agent market, poor results on past free agent signings, more guys on the trade market, etc., etc.), however, I can see where some of the owners might point at the luxury tax threshold and say, “That’s a good excuse to cut payroll to that point.” Wink, wink, nudge, nudge. And viola, we have a de facto salary cap. I also don’t think it would be hard for the owners bean counters and analytics people to sit down in front of these guys and say, “We’ve identified several areas that are really bad investments. Free agent deals over (insert number) years or (insert number) of dollars. We’d really recommend avoiding them as much as possible.” Again, all the owners look at the data, look at each other, say, “That’s a good idea.” Wink, wink, nudge, nudge. Again, is all of this collusion? Or is it just smart business? Both? In the end, the hard part will be proving collusion. We’ve seen those arguments trotted out. As we’ve talked about, there’s a lot of factors going on that have probably contributed to the slower market. As people have noted before, baseball is a business. And the owners want to make money. And by being a bit more restrained and sophisticated, and building a team from within (such as Houston and Chicago and KC have done), they can win - plus make oodles of cash. Chasing a championship with money just seems like a much more expensive proposition - and the odds of winning with such a team is less than if you build from within. So why blow all sorts of money in such a fashion? In many ways it’s hard to claim collusion since the owners can just say they are being smart business people. Is it collusion to operate more efficiently and make more money? Does the CBA say that profits have to go back to the players? This circles back to the current situation. Owners making more money every year - yet the players salaries have stagnated (and might even fall). That’s frustrating for any group of employees. No one likes to see the owners make more and more, yet they don’t get a salary bump. My thoughts are that the players need to take a fresh look at what they negotiated. At this time, I don’t think there is anything linking salaries with revenues - and maybe that’s where they should look at. I don’t know how that is achieved, and I don’t if it would really work, but defining revenues, and then guaranteeing themselves a specific portion of those revenues, would probably ‘fix’ any sort of collusion (if it exists) narrative. How the players are guaranteed their money is another question. Do you have salary caps? Salary floors? I don't know. All of this is very difficult due to the disparity in revenues of the different teams. It’s unlike the NFL or NBA. Some teams make way, way more cash than others. I'm just spitballing stuff. Personally, I see a lot of forces at work - and that very well could include tacit 'wink, wink' decision by the owners. But as we've said, how do you prove such things? I think the players and owners are in for a really big fight in the next CBA if they don't really come in looking to revamp the system in a lot of ways.

Brandon Woodruff threw 43 innings in eight starts with a 4.81 ERA last year. He had a 0.5 bWAR and a 0.6 fWAR. That wasn't bad. It wasn't great either. But it was a decent sized sample. If he can improve a little bit next season - say make 30 starts with a 4.50 ERA - he's a competent fifth starter. That's nothing earth shattering, but it's a huge improvement over our back end of the rotation from last year. (As a note, the average NL starter had a 4.34 ERA last season.) Garza, Espino, Milone, Peralta, Blazek, and Guerra had 50 starts (240 IP) last year with a 5.55 ERA for a -0.1 fWAR and a -2.5 bWAR. So if you can get a guy to just be half-way competent for 30 starts, you're gaining a 2-3 of wins right there. And it's done on the cheap. I think a guy like Woodruff should brought along with patience. Show confidence in him, give him a long leash. There will likely be some growing pains, but I think he has shown some promise. He doesn't need to be great pitcher - or even an average one - at this time. If he can just operate on the fifth step of the rotation - he's making progress. Yes, I want him to do better than that - but I will give him time to get better. I doubt few people see Woodruff as a top of the rotation type - but if he can just be solid - there's a ton of value there - especially while he's inexpensive.

For what it's worth, this is a pretty in-depth look at Woodruff by RotoGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-the-pros-and-cons-of-brandon-woodruff/ The author outlines the pros and cons of Woodruff. In the end, the author isn't sold on Woodruff's consistency and mechanics - but there's lots to like about the guy (and the author has lots of good stuff about Woodruff).

No. And no Facebook either. Too many pricks on both. I don't have patience for people's crap. I am just a diehard Brewer fan. One of my goals in life is to be in Miller park for 1 Brewer World Series game. Just 1. I was at game 5 of the 1982 World Series. Saw the Brewers win one. It was sweet. Oh so close that year.

Interesting 'tank tax' idea. https://www.baseballamerica.com/columnists/tank-tax-push-teams-try-harder/ Basically suggests that teams that continue to stink won't necessarily get the best draft picks. Thus you don't have a team like Houston win 55-65 games for five years in a row - and keep getting the top pick or so in the draft.

I had someone in HR tell me that when you are asking for someone to be a reference, you should always ask them if they will be a 'good' reference. So the 'positive' thing is not a surprise - and the polite way of asking. The HR person said it's amazing how many times she had called a reference and had the person NOT give a good account of the person. She said you should always check with a person -- specifically saying, "Will you give me a positive reference?"

I'm skeptical that there is collusion going on. I think it's just a combination of many thing. 1. Players are getting offers - just not outrageous ones. I mean, JD Martinez getting $25-30M/year for five years sounds pretty reasonable. And the relievers seem to have done pretty well for themselves. If Hosmer is setting on a 7-year/$140M offer - and waiting for an eighth year - that's too bad. It's still an awesome offer. To say he's not getting a fair offer is not right. 2. Players just aren't that good. Let's be honest - there is not superstar on the market. There's some very good players - but no ace starters. No 3. Teams are just smarter. They realize how badly some of the big contracts have hamstrung teams and holding back. It's just good business. 4. There is a de facto cap with the luxury tax. Teams are reluctant to pass it for a variety of reasons. This has put a lot of teams that normally spend money in a bit of a holding pattern. They just don't have the cash to spend as in the past. 5. Next year's class is big - and teams want to save for that (which relates to the luxury tax). 6. The reluctance of the top free agents to accept a deal (Darvish, Arrieta, Martinez, Hosmer, etc.) is holding up a lot of things for others. It's just the way things work. 7. You get more and more teams willing to go into 'rebuild' mode (Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, etc.) - and are looking to shed long term obligations (which often means salary) and aren't willing to add salary. I mean, does it really help Detroit to spend $25M/year to add Jake Arietta for the next five or six years? That's moronic. The team is rebuilding, and it simply doesn't help a team to spend that kind of money to help them win 73 games instead of 70 games. I think this is huge. It takes teams out of the free agent market to a large degree. And then it puts more players on the trade market. Miami traded Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna - all very good players. And all the teams that got those players now don't need an outfielder - meaning the free agents have fewer option available. In the end, it's a lot of reasons that probably lead to the current marketplace. I think it's foolish to thinks it's one thing. The players and the owners have set up a system, and the system has gone in this specific direction. The owners are probably the ones who have benefited the most from the current CBA. It's worked well for them - but I'm skeptical of collusion. But hey, you never know.

Brewers still active. [sarcasm]Now we can afford a pitcher![/sarcasm] I wonder how much cash is actually exchanged in these situations... We have a photo of the transaction being made:

I will add this about the Brewers initial proposal for Archer. The Rays were not sold on Brinson as a centerpiece (as stated earlier, they didn't trust his hit tool). The Rays have asked for a top prospect for Archer as a centerpiece. Meaning a guy who they feel has all-star potential. They were not looking for a package of good prospects - but a package built around a great one. Brinson would have worked - but they just weren't enamored with him. As a veteran, Santana does not fit the bill. And the quality of Brewer prospects isn't that high. For that reason, a trade with the Brewers doesn't match up that well. Of course, things can change. That info was from weeks ago. Perhaps once no one offers up that top end prospect they'll be content to take a different package. However, Tampa can afford to wait if they want. Archer will still have tremendous trade value up to the deadline (heck, even next off season). The risk is if Archer gets hurt or his performance seriously declines. But for now, they can wait. They can see how the season progresses - and if they are in the playoff race, they can keep him. If not, they can revisit the trade market. Personally, I'd love to have Archer. But I'm not sure we have what Tampa wants at this time.

I've deleted a couple of posts in this (and other threads) of people just being jerks. The other mods have done so as well the past week. We are getting tired of all the childish comments. There is talk of banning people - which doesn't happen often - but does happen. We are warning people now. Stop being a jerk to others on this board. That means don't insult someone. That includes things like telling someone they write like a moron, or that they are insane, or that they haven't a clue, or that we're lucky they aren't running the team, etc., etc. Stop the snark. This includes things like, 'Are you serious?' or 'Did you even read the post', etc., etc. Stop the combativeness. Just because someone doesn't agree you doesn't mean you have attack them in snippy and derogatory fashion. Just state your case and be done. Stop the swearing. It's not necessary. If it blocks out your word, then you know it's blocked. Just go change it. And don't try and get around swearing by putting in abbreviations or dashes or whatever. Just be polite and observe the forum rules. And please, if someone is a jerk, simply report them. Don't insult them back. Thank you.

One thing with Hader that I would be curious is the simple question of what does he want to do? Every player is different, but sometimes a player might slot into a role and just say, "Hey, this is me." I don't know what Hader wants or doesn't want - but maybe his personality and make up just suits him to being a reliever - and he's said that the Brewers. Again, I don't know the answer to the question. Or if it's been considered. I'm just wondering if it's something that has come up and has helped the team and Hader make a decision as to his role.