Matt Breen

If Ellsbury is involved, there could be other moving parts as well. He may not end up in Milwaukee when all is said and done. The Brewers may just be one cog of a larger trade. Just a guess.

Christian Yelich is a really good player who will only improve by getting out of Miami's pitcher friendly ballpark. However, he's cheap and young and controllable - so he'll cost a ton. Still, the Brewers are idiots if they didn't check in on him. The Brewers should, literally, be checking in on anyone who might help this club. Perhaps something doesn't fit now, but who knows next week or next month. That our name is coming up attached to lots of players, thus, makes total sense.

That's an interesting twist. Brewers spent about $1M or so on trying to develop Wang (not to mention a slot for him back when he was a Rule 5 pickup).

I am not sure what is the best way to prevent tanking, but I wouldn't mind this kind of thing for the draft.

You really think teams are tanking for draft picks? I don't think that happens in MLB. Teams simply cut payroll to the minimum because they realize the difference between 60 and 70 wins is nothing. I don't think teams ONLY tank to get a better draft pick - but I totally believe it a big part of the equation. Teams are fools to not want a shot at better guys in the draft. The difference between a 60 win team and a 70 win team could be the #1 pick in the draft and the #6 (or higher) pick. Cutting payroll is a big deal as well. No question. But teams know that the higher the pick, the better chance they have landing an impact player.

And there's a ton of money in baseball. Each owner this year will get $50M each - a share of the sale MLB's digital arm to Disney. I read recently that 10 or 15 years ago, the players got more than 50% of the revenues. Now it's 35% or something like that (sorry I don't have the source). Despite the drop in revenue percentage, player salaries continue to rise - so the players have generally been quiet. But we'll see what happens in the future.

I don't know if there is really collusion going on in baseball, but I think there are many factors that are coming together that are probably suppressing salaries. 1. Teams are smarter. They know JD Martinez or whomever is going to be an albatross contract at age 36. They know having cheap, young players is a gold mine. They are just being more disciplined about things. 2. The Luxury Tax is serving as a Salary Cap for most teams. Teams don't want to go over that luxury tax line for more than a couple of years. It just gets really expensive. 3. I think we are getting more and more teams willing to blow up their rosters and lose for an extended period in hope of coming out on top. Look at KC, Chicago and Houston. These clubs - both big and small market - gutted their rosters, willingly lost so they could save money, avoid long term contracts, and get good draft picks. The result was a World Series parade. I think there are more and more teams willing to go this path. This means fewer teams are playing in the free agent market. Even big market teams - like the White Sox and Astros - have avoided spending at some point as they rebuilt. It really hurts marginal players. I mean, last year there was no real need for Milwaukee to go after a Neil Walker or Josh Harrison. Perhaps this year it makes more sense. But last year we wanted to give our young, cheap guys the opportunity. It seems like we have more haves and have nots each year - and less in between clubs. I mean, if you're going to lose 85 games, why not just lose 90 or 95 games? In the past, Milwaukee often built a team that looked like it was a .500ish club. Then they hoped some things broke their way and they'd make the playoffs. However, that's shown to be a weak strategy, and we've quickly rebuilt the system and major league club by shedding contracts, being willing to take chances, being willing lose for a time.

I thought the collusion stuff deserved its own thread, so I started one in the major league forum: viewtopic.php?f=63&t=36285 We can keep this one focused on Neil Walker.

I've started this thread because one of the topics coming up in other threads is questions about whether collusion is going on within the game, plus general issues regarding the finances within the game. I think it's a good topic, but it's creeping into other threads and really needs it's own home. I've posted one article that was shared in another thread that I think is pretty interesting. It's by Jeff Passan, and it's about talks about whether the baseball's economic is broken, and talks in depth about collusion. Read, share other articles, comment, have fun. https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-baseballs-economic-system-might-broken-224638354.html

I think it's pretty clear that Walker's bat is superior to Harrison's. Harrison's glove is better - but not by leaps and bounds. In all, Walker a better player. But like I said earlier, Harrison is two years younger - so there's less danger of him falling off a cliff compared to Walker. One other note about Walker and Harrison. Walker is a switch hitter, but he doesn't hit lefties that well. His career OPS against lefties is .691 (vs .809 against righties). So some platooning may be in order. As for Harrison, he hits lefties better (.777 OPS vs .721 OPS). So as you compare the two - their a lefty/righty splits might affect who you really want.

The most we've ever had was $110M - so I wouldn't expect more than that. However, one thing of note is that every major league team will get $50M in the first quarter of this year due to the sale of BAMTech - which is the digital media company is the streaming source for MLB.tv and MLB.com - plus HBO, NHL, WWE, and others. BAMTech was bought by Disney. Perhaps the sale can help us spend more if needed. http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/12/15/each-owner-will-get-at-least-50-million-in-early-2018-from-he-sale-of-bamtech/

As a note, Cot's contracts puts the Giants at $192M in salaries for 2018. They reportedly really want to stay under the $197M luxury cap mark. That leaves them hardly any wiggle room going forward. A minimum salary guy like Broxton is perfect for them.

Sogard 92 64 68 Minors 103 Hernan 76 91 81 Villar 117 72 That's why Neil Walker's OPS+ the last five years: 114 126 106 121 111

This. Harrison's a nice player, but you can get Walker for similar (or less) money - and Walker is a better player. He hits for decent power, gets on base at a good clip, and plays okay defense. At two years old, Walker is probably a bit more of a risk. As I said, Harrison is a good player and I wouldn't have a problem if we got him. I think Walker offers a bit more - and he won't cost any prospect capital to acquire.

Even with McCutchen, Broxton would be perfect for SF. Cutch and Pence on the corners, Broxton in CF. Plus the IF of Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford and Longoria. It's a line up that would have killed in 2013 - but, in theory, could still be good. SF is sitting around $190M salary. They really want to stay under the luxury cap ($197M) - and that makes Broxton so perfect. Cheap. And athletic -- he will cover a lot of ground in CF and help make up for McCutchen and Pence's lack of range. The only problem is that SF doesn't have a lot to trade. Samardzija, Cueto and Bumgarner are needed to anchor the rotation. Melancon, Strickland, Will Smith, Gearrin and Dyson make a potentially okay bullpen (lots of age and injuries there). I guess they could just go all in and trade Chris Shaw and/or Tyler Beede - although neither guy thrills me as a prospect.

Adding Moustakas would be kind of weird in my book. The idea is that you can then use Shaw as a trade chip to land a good starting pitcher. But who is the starting pitcher that we land for Shaw? Stroman? Archer? deGrom? Or perhaps there's a stud minor leaguer we could get for Shaw ... but again, who?

I don't know if Pittsburgh really got anything great in this deal. At worse, a couple of relievers - but you have to think Cole could have gotten more than that. Some serious questions about Musgrove being a starter or reliever. Don't really know that much about him, but if he can become a decent starter, I'd say it was a solid move. Moran is an interesting player. Not a lot of people like him, but I've always thought he could be decent. His bat really improved last season - adding power that many thought he'd produce when he was initially drafted. Again, I guess we just have to see if he can become a decent big leaguer. A lot of people are skeptical.

A month or two ago I read that the Mets were a bit concerned about Smith due to his struggles when called up last summer - plus his conditioning. But as noted, I think the Gonzalez signing is an insurance policy. It gives Smith a big warning that the job isn't his - he has to earn it.

That's a good point. I have him at $20M, because according to Cot's, that's what we are charged for determining salary cap stuff. So in reality, we are really around $65-66M for 2018.

Surprised Reed got this low. I was expecting three years and about $27-30M. I would have been happy to have had him at this price. I assume he wanted to be a closer was of interest to him. He should get that gig in Minnesota.

There's still a place for vets in any rebuilding mix and I'd much prefer an Arrieta over what we got out of Matt Garza (although the recent revelation of Garza's collision-induced shoulder injury puts his 2nd half struggles in a totally different light). There was really only Braun and Jeffress (and I suppose Vogt) going into this off-season in terms of established vets -- not a bad thing, but rarely does any rebuild gain ALL its steam before you begin adding vets. Now we've added Chacin, Logan, and Gallardo, and only two of those are sure bets to make the club if healthy. Point being, adding an Arrieta or someone comparable, whether as a FA or via trade, doesn't blow the rebuild out of the water. My hunch is that if we add an Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb, it's because the financial cost to signing them represented a better deal for the organization than the cost of prospects to go after an Archer type. I'm not saying Arrieta is my ideal move (I don't know what my ideal move is because I can't know the potential costs of every option), but I do trust Stearns if he feels Arrieta is the best needed strategic option the Brewers have for improving the rotation for not just this year but beyond. Well said.

[pre]C Manny Pina 0.55 C Stephen Vogt 3.065 1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55 1B Eric Thames 5.0 2B Jonathan Villa 2.55 SS Orlando Arcia 0.55 3B Travis Shaw 0.55 LF Ryan Braun 20.0 ($4M deferred) RF Domingo Santa 0.55 CF Keon Broxton 0.55 OF Lewis Brinson 0.55 OF Brett Phillips 0.55 INF Hernan Perez 1.975 SP Chase Anderson 4.75 SP Jimmy Nelson 3.7 SP Zach Davies 0.55 SP Brandon Woodr 0.55 S/R Brent Suter 0.55 S/R Josh Hader 0.55 RP Jeremy Jeffress 1.70 RP Corey Knebel 3.65 RP Jacob Barnes 0.55 RP Oliver Drake 0.55 IF Eric Sogard 2.4 RP Boone Logan 1.875 P Yovanni Gallard 2.0 SP Jhoulys Chacin 8.75[/pre] TOTAL: $69.115M There are 27 players listed (I've added Logan, Gallardo and Chacin; removed Guerra). Nelson will start the season on the DL, and one of the relievers is likely to go to the minors or get released (assuming there are no injuries - which is a silly thing to assume). But the pre-arby guys are pretty much interchangeable - salary-wise. No matter, we are at about $70M in salaries at this time. Numbers are from Cot's Baseball Contracts: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

Cool. I will update.

[pre]C Manny Pina 0.55 C Stephen Vogt 3.065 1B Jesus Aguilar 0.55 1B Eric Thames 5.0 2B Jonathan Villa 2.55 SS Orlando Arcia 0.55 3B Travis Shaw 0.55 LF Ryan Braun 20.0 ($4M deferred) RF Domingo Santa 0.55 CF Keon Broxton 0.55 OF Lewis Brinson 0.55 OF Brett Phillips 0.55 INF Hernan Perez* 1.975 SP Chase Anderson 4.75 SP Jimmy Nelson 3.7 SP Zach Davies 0.55 SP Brandon Woodr 0.55 S/R Brent Suter 0.55 S/R Josh Hader 0.55 RP Jeremy Jeffress 1.70 RP Corey Knebel 3.65 RP Jacob Barnes 0.55 RP Oliver Drake 0.55 RP Eric Sogard 2.4 RP Boone Logan 1.875 P Yovanni Gallard 2.0 SP Jhoulys Chacin 8.75[/pre] TOTAL: $69.115M There are 27 players listed (I've added Logan, Gallardo and Chacin; removed Guerra). Nelson will start the season on the DL, and one of the relievers is likely to go to the minors or get released (assuming there are no injuries - which is a silly thing to assume). But the pre-arby guys are pretty much interchangeable - salary-wise. Hernan Perez is the only guy without a solid number - still have an estimate for him at this time. No matter, we are at about $70M in salaries at this time. Numbers are from Cot's Baseball Contracts: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

**guilty** I'm on my way there myself. In some ways you have to do it. You get a player and what are the options? Hope he does well. Of course not. You hope and pray that the guy comes out on the plus side of the ledger because he's now YOUR guy - whether you like him or not. I look at Arrieta and see a lot of land mines. But I see the positives. And we would land him, I'd smile and hope and pray that he can be the guy we need - even if I'm skeptical in a lot of ways.