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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Braun is sitting on an .830 OPS. He's had a .799 OPS since the all star break (51 ABs), and a .744 OPS in July. Maybe he's struggling a little, and maybe it's a physical thing, but guys go through this kind of stuff. Just the nature of the game. I haven't watched a ton of games lately, but I thought he's looked okay. We all wanted Braun to come back and be the .900+ OPS guy of yesteryear, but I don't think many of us felt that was realistic. Personally, I was hoping to get an .850 OPS from him, play 140+ games. I'd say he's done pretty well. Nothing great, but good. He's hit for more power than I anticipated, but less average.
  2. As suggested, roache should be moved to 1B. He's a bad fielder, so it works. Just do it sooner than later. No point in waiting. I think he's pretty far down on the OF prospect list.
  3. Knebel should be our closer after K-Rod moves on. Nice inning.
  4. The average NL starter this year has an ERA of 3.94. Peralta and Nelson are right about there at this point of the season (Fiers was as well). Jungmann has, obviously, beat that this year, but I'm thinking some regression is in order. If he settles into this area as well, I think that's realistic. I also think Garza can get back to this zone area well, but that's me. If he can, I think that gives us four guys who are averageish - some maybe above average. That's not bad. If the fifth spot (Thornburg, Cravy, Davies or whomever) can be respectable - 4.00-4.50 ERA - it's a solid rotation - right about league average. Some players are likely to do a little better, but some will do a little worse. Plus there are injuries that will result in some lesser players get starts. In the end, it's probably more of an average rotation. Of course, the team and fans may see some of these players as more than average or a little better than average. I don't think it's out of the question that Peralta or Nelson or Jungmann take a step forward and become more of a #2 type pitcher and produce a 3.20 ERA next year (on the flip side, I don't think it's out of the question for Garza to have a 5.00 ERA next year). It's the simple nature of pitching. An average pitcher has a good year and produces like a #2. Or has an off year and produces like a #4. Nature of the beast. The bullpen is pitching well. Not outstanding, like KC's or St. Louis' pen (whose relievers have produce a sub-2.50 ERA) - but good (our bullpen ERA is 3.33 - 12th in the majors). The NL average is 3.46. If we can maintain that solid relieving - even improve, there's the potential for a solid staff. With a little luck, we could even be better than average. It's something to build on. I still feel we lack top-of-the-rotation starters. I would have loved to have added a couple of prospects with big arms at the deadline, but it just wasn't in the cards. Gomez would have been the big trade chip for that to happen, so unless we deal Lucroy for one, we are probably stuck with what we have. Again, there's nothing wrong with what we have - inexpensive, solid players with room to improve. An average, or slightly above average, pitching staff needs the offense to be above average. That is probably a ways away - but that's a different thread. I think it's okay to let the guys play out, see if anyone steps. I don't think we are going to win next year, so let the players development. Maybe a couple of guys emerge as a top-of-the-rotation force. Let's find out, and later next year and in 2017 some of our more promising position players will start to arrive. Arcia, Phillips, Reed, Taylor, etc. - these guys can hopefully transform things on the offensive side. Add in a lack of big salaries, and you can potentially fill some holes in free agency.
  5. Our offense is going to be bad next year: C - Lucroy/Maldonado - Above average - although both players were below average this year, I don't think it's a stretch to think they can't rebound to make this position a positive. 1B - Lind - Above average, although you need a respectable right handed bat to platoon (Lind has a .821 OPS at 1B, but the poor hitting of the other players - mostly Rogers - drops the position to a .781 OPS this year). 2B - Scooter - Average - although he has been below average in 2015, Scooter's past success, plus his solid play since returning from the minors, makes me think he can be an average starter. You need a platoon partner. Most options (Rivera, Sardinas, Gomez, Herrera) are poor hitters, but better defensive players. SS - Segura - Average 3B - Perez or Dominguez - Below average - Perez has a sub .700 OPS play since joining the team. If you include his time in Detroit, it's sub .600 OPS play this year. There's little reason to view him as no more than a utility guy. Dominguez offers some pop, but not much else. It's a bad situation. LF - Davis - Average - Surprisingly, Davis, even with a .734 OPS, is hitting better than the league average. Add in his mediocre defense, and you have a, barely, average player. Santana offers an intriguing option due to his plus power. But he screams Wily Mo Pena to me, which isn't necessarily good. CF - Schafer, Peterson, Wren - below average. It's an ugly situation. You gotta hope someone steps up. RF - Braun - Above average. No one is exceptional. There's no big bat to carry the club. There are a lot of questions. One of the three 'above average' positions are coming off a bad season - and none of them is really that great. Some of the average positions are dicey as well. Two positions are just bad looking. And depth is an issue as well. A major injury or two, such as Lucroy and Lind, could really be painful. I just see a lot of question marks without very good answers. The team does have the off season to make some moves, but this lineup won't be very good next year.
  6. This is spot on. Garza isn't moving unless you eat a ton of his contract, which means it's mostly a sunk cost. Just let the guy keep pitching. If he does well over the last 10 starts in 2015, he may actually be attractive to someone this off season. Or if not the rest of the year, then see if he can come back in 2016. If he's sitting on a sub 4.00 ERA next all-star break, someone will want him. But at this point, we have to eat nearly all of his salary for someone to take him. If that's the case, just wait.
  7. I don't think any of these guys can realistically be considered for 3B, but all of them could potentially move to 1B in the future.
  8. If the club thinks Thornburg has a future as a starter, I'd jettison Lohse and give Tyler the remaining starts for 2015. Garza, Jungmann, Peralta, Nelson, Thornburg is the rotation for the rest of the year. Add Cravy and Davies into the mix in 2016. You hope Garza regroups next year, and you deal him if there is interest.
  9. this should be in the rumors forum.
  10. Manaea was ranked #56 by mlb.com #81 by BA and #85 by BP coming into this year. He's a former #1 pick. Big guy, projectable. Throws some big heat. 185k in 153 minor league innings. Good upside - #2 starter type if he can control things. Missed most of 2015 with an abdomen injury. Nice pick up for Oakland - Manaea has some good upside, but this year has been kind of a lost season. I think he's back and healthy.
  11. Send him to AAA. I realize Colo Springs is a crappy place to evaluate players, but that's where Suter will start facing veteran AAAA players - guys like Clark who have been around and give him a more realistic test of his abilities. If Brent can do decent against them, it's a good test to see if he has what it takes to move on.
  12. You can really do this at the mid-season point of next year. Just say July 1 for simplicity sake. At that point, you can call up Orlando and he won't accrue a year of service for 2016, and won't be eligible for Arby 2. This way he gets 1/2 a season more of experience in the big leagues.
  13. Let's see how quick Tulo gets hurt on the lovely artificial turf in Toronto.
  14. Segura showing why he's so mediocre. They just set up on the outside part of the plate and let him swing at crap. He hasn't learned a thing since he came up. Pitchers know he chases junk, so they throw it to him. He'll never drive the ball if he doesn't get good pitches to swing at. If he hasn't learned after three years, he's likely never going to learn.
  15. Not sure if next year's contract - $7.5M plus a $2M buyout for 2017 (or a $6M salary if I am correct) makes k-rod more or less valuable.
  16. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/angels-acquire-shane-victorino.html Not a big deal, but it may take away one team that was interested in Parra - not that they are that comparable. Parra is having a far better season. Boston gets veteran infielder Josh Rutledge, who is at AAA. Angels also get some cash as well.
  17. Older player with average to below average stuff. Nothing stands out. Walks a few too many guys. Has produce solid, if unremarkable, results in his career (this year has been his best season). Guys like this often get lit up as they start facing upper level hitters. He's not had to face lots of players over and over in his career. He's used his smarts and experience to succeed thus far. As I said, many of these guys get hammered as they get to AAA and the majors. His ceiling? Back of the rotation, long reliever guy? Maybe develop into a Loogy by altering his delivery a bit. But that's a high point. I'm skeptical of these soft tosser types. There are so many guys like this that fail. Some eventually succeed, so you're an idiot not to keep trying and developing him, but those are the exceptions to the rule. The good part is the guy isn't stupid. He probably knows he needs to do certain things to succeed.
  18. Of the Cardinal prospects, I'd love a pitcher such as Kaminsky or Reyes. Piscotty I've always been skeptical of in the past (not showing enough power or walks for my taste), but he's a little more intriguing as he's improved this year. He might be a bit of a tweener type guy with a limited ceiling. Don't know about his defense.
  19. I could care less about dealing with the Cardinals if it works out to our team's advantage in the long run. Honestly, I don't want the Cards to win the WS again - but more importantly, I want Milwaukee to win it in the future. Lind is controlled through 2016, a time frame we aren't going to win anything. If the Cards give us back the best deal, then take it. I'm not going to not deal with them just to spite them. If Milwaukee was a contender, then sure, you don't make deals with your rivals. But right now, we aren't rivals to the Cardinals, and Lind's impact ends after 2016. So make a good deal. If that's now with the Cards, then go for it.
  20. For me, the 2008 Wild Card clincher was the best because I was there with my son. The day before the game, some friends of ours (die hard Cubs fans) stopped by our house and handed us two tickets to the game. They had won the tickets a few weeks before at a raffle of some kind. They said, "This means a lot more to you guys," or something like that. I took my son, who was nine at the time. Needless to say, it was pretty amazing. Braun's homer in the 8th - I can still watch the video and get chills. Then watching the Mets lose on the big screen - again, pretty amazing stuff. I saved a handful of confetti from the game, but I don't think it survived after we moved a couple of years ago. Still an extraordinary moment. My son doesn't remember a lot of details (again he was nine) from the game - just the thrill of it - the confetti dropping, the place going wild, sitting an watching the Mets/Marlins game, etc. I will never forget it.
  21. D'arnaud would have been a nice pick up for Parra. Some power, takes his share of walks, controlled through 2020. I believe he's supposed to be solid defensively - but that's just going by my spotty memory. Obviously, you have to feel he's going to recover 100% from the elbow injury.
  22. I really don't know much about the Rays minor leaguers, so I'll leave that to others. But to me, the important thing is that Lucroy's name gets out there, generates buzz, generates interest. If other teams hear that the Rays are interested in Lucroy, it's smart for them to keep checking in with Melvin. The more people that do that, the more Milwaukee has to consider whether to move Lucroy. in the end, the more interest that Luc gets, the better his return as teams know they need to top other offers. Of course, Melvin could just keep saying no, but the more inquiries he gets, the more chance he may listen. And that's the first step. I just hope they don't do a blanket 'no' on Luc. It should be a 'I'm not motivated at this time, but if you have a great offer, I'll consider it.'
  23. The face of the franchise is the future. The team should sell that - just like they did a decade or so ago. Face of the franchise can change very quickly - and fans don't throw themselves off buildings when it happens. The Cardinals did just fine with Puljos left (and we're talking about one of the most impactful players in baseball history). Luc is a great player - well respected, well liked - but he is not the embodiment of a great team that's fighting to win it all (which isn't his fault, since the team just isn't that good).
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