Matt Breen
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Everything posted by Matt Breen
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But roles make things so easy. 7th inning - bring in the '7th inning guy' 8th inning - bring in the '8th inning guy' (Kameron Loe, come on down!) 9th inning - bring in the 'closer' In all honesty, I've read some players love the 'role' - whether 7th or 8th inning or whatever. Others could care less. In this day and age, however, it makes for lazy managing. I can appreciate that some guys do well in specific spots, but in the end, it's about the team. If the 3-4-5 guys are coming up in the 8th inning, shouldn't you bring out your best reliever in this spot? I think teams need to instill this kind of flexibility in relievers - preach to them that every inning is important, and they could be pitching at any spot. I'm not saying don't have 'roles' - but understand that those roles are more guidelines - not a hard and fast way to run a bullpen. -
Olt designated for assignment
Matt Breen replied to markedman5's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'd go for the guy. It takes a roster spot - which we have open. Get a closer look at him and see what you think. If he stinks, you designate him at that time. -
I think those are solid estimates. Peralta might be a tad high, but not much. Obviously a nice (or naughty) September could changes things - especially Peralta and Segura. Estrada got $3.9 million so I actually think I might be low if anything with Peralta. Peralta's record of accomplishment to date has been at least on par with Estrada's through 2014. Arbitration isn't strictly performance based. It's heavily weighted toward service time as well as your previous salary. So you want to compare Wily to other 1st time eligible guys. Last year Wade Miley ended up making $3.67M (as part of a three year contract). And Garrett Richards made $3.2M. Those guys probably fit into the same profile as Peralta does coming into his first year of arby. Miley averaged 200 IP over his previous three years, probably a little better ERA and no injuries.
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No to Span. Even on a one year deal, it reeks of what we have done in the past - trying to patch together a team that might contend if all the pieces fall into place. There's nothing wrong with the guy, just the wrong thing for this club at this time. It's a move, btw, that I would totally see the club doing - at least in the past. I don't know about under the new GM, but we'll see.
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You are correct - there's little downside to playing him at 3B next year. That's assuming we don't get anyone else. But we are going to be bad next season - so the club should feel free to experiment. In fact, playing Perez full time next year allows you to judge him as a third baseman, but also as a second baseman. Barring an injury or other bad thing, come 2017 Arcia is going to be our SS. Who plays 2B? Segura, Perez, Scooter, Sardinas and Rivera could all hold the spot - each offering something a little different. But if you let Perez play 3B next year, and he manages a .700 OPS, he could be a legit starter at the keystone in the coming years. The other real option is Dominguez, but that's not really enticing. Sub-.700 OPS at AAA this year isn't real enticing. But the guy supposedly plays good defense - and he did hit 20some HRs a few years ago - so maybe there's some hope for the guy. Otherwise, the club will probably go shopping for someone - either an upper level minor leaguer or something like that. No matter what, you just roll the dice. If it works, great. If it doesn't, you move on.
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Baseball Reference says Thornburg will be eligible in 2017 for the first time. He was at 1.146 years of service coming into 2015. Perhaps if he had been on the roster all year he would have made it. Just a guess. He doesn't seem to have accumulated more than 1.5 or so years of service time.
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I think those are solid estimates. Peralta might be a tad high, but not much. Obviously a nice (or naughty) September could changes things - especially Peralta and Segura.
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September callups 2015 [Davies called up]
Matt Breen replied to LouisEly's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The entire September call up thing is so strange to me. I dislike how teams play the game one way for 5 months, then can change how they play for the final 30 days. Why a team suddenly gets an extra 5-10 guys is kind of crazy. And I don't really care much about the 'designate 25 guys' option either. A team can just designate their four other starters, plus they probably have a guy or two that can't play (such as a reliever who's thrown three days in a row or a player nursing an injury). It still means you're operating with at least 30 man rosters. It means more pitching changes, more pinch hitters, etc. -
Perez has a .583 OPS in 2015 on 187 ABs (154 with the Brewers). Are his 13 doubles nice? Sure. Extrapolate them to 640 plate appearances (based only on his Brewer stats) and you get 52 doubles. Nice. Let's extrapolate his 3 walks if we are doing that. Or his 1 HR. We have a guy who - again, only using his Milwaukee stats - would hit .273 with a .287 OBP and an OPS of .676. He would have 52 doubles, 4 HRs, 12 walks and 116 strikeouts. And you're dismissing the rest of his time in the majors this year. Why should we do that? Just because it was with Detroit and played sporadically? We shouldn't just pretend it didn't happen. That gives us 588 plate appearances (extrapolating 194 plate appearances this year), 39 doubles, 3 HR, 12 walks and 120 strikeouts. Add in the .583 OPS. And let's look at his splits. He's got a .486 OPS in 2015 vs right handers - .749 vs lefties (118 and 69 ABs, respectively). If you want to look at the minor leagues, he had a .735 OPS last year at AAA. He's never hit more than 8 HR in a season in the minors. His OPS at AA for his career is .741. some people seem to want to see a lot more in players based upon some random criteria, ignoring the rest of the evidence at hand. That's fine, but personally, I don't see anything more than a utility guy in Perez. That's using the numbers and the eyes. He's an impatient batter, offers little power and at 24, he probably is what he is. Sure he could improve - maybe even a lot - but I highly doubt he'll produce enough to play 3B regularly. My opinion.
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When you look at rating shortstops you have to consider the financial impact as well as the future performance implications of each player. Is Jose Reyes a better overall SS than Segura? Yes. But some teams would take Segura if given the option due to his youth, Reyes history of injuries, age, declining defense and huge contract. Segura was producing a .650 OPS at the all-star break this year - nothing special, but starting to get near the ML average (which is .259 BA, .305 OBP, .682 OPS). Add in decent defense, his contract, some speed, and someone might find him a decent fit at SS. Again, 'might' is the key word. If he's making $3M next year that might be no big deal to one team, but a lot to another. And you probably want to see at least a bit of improvement over this year's performance to pique others interest.
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Braun- looking like second half 2014
Matt Breen replied to rickh150's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Gordon has a player's option for 2016 - I think $13M or so. Before the season he said he'd exercise it, but then backed off that comment. Most people expect him to become a FA. He needs to cash in before he gets too old. Gordon is an excellent defender in left - Braun was average at best - but Braun has the better stick. I think Gordon's going to end up resigning with KC - perhaps even before free agency starts. Just my guess from things I've read. He seems pretty attached to KC - and KC to him. His defense is still excellent, which will help him maintain a positive value. And in the end, I don't know if he is one of those guys looking to break the bank. He might go for something slightly shorter and of less value than he might get on the open market. Again, just my speculation. -
Nice to see him put everything together in his life.
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Frazier's double looked like it might of been foul. Close one.
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That would be fun. It's a pretty formidable offense - and the pitching is better.
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Segura, for all his faults, is still probably one of the best 30 shortstops in baseball. He's still young - only 25 - so he can still improve, he plays decent defense, and has plus speed. That means someone will want him as a starter, and you're probably better off waiting for someone to give you a decent offer. What a 'decent offer' is to everyone is debatable. That was discussed in a thread earlier this year - some people claiming Segura was worth a top 100 or even top 50 prospect. I'm skeptical the club can get that much for him, but they can try. I think the best thing is to let Segura try and start out 2016 well - and sell high on him when Arcia is ready. You can also consider shifting him to 2B, but that might consider how guys like Scooter, Sardinas and Rivera develop over the next year.
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why didn't herrera let that go.
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Leal is a great story, but I'm not getting carried away like he's anything special. He's got only 300 ABs in low A ball thus far - a league he's older than the average player by 1.6 years. He's already 24, he should be doing well. Leal is hitting well this year - no denying that. But he was a 34th round draft pick for a reason. He doesn't have much power. I don't know anything about his defense - so maybe others can speak to that facet of his game. I'll start looking at him seriously when he has some more playing time at advanced levels, and I hear reports from people I trust with regards to his defense. A guy like Adam Weisenburger could contribute - but he profiles strictly as a back up player. Good defense, takes a lot of walks, but won't hit much. Like gregmag says, we don't have much at catcher. If Lucroy is dealt or leaves when his contract ends in 2017, there's a real black hole. Maybe someone steps up, such as Leal, but I'm skeptical that him or anyone else in our system is anything more than a backup.
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This is pretty much spot on. I was surprised at how poorly Jack Z did in Seattle. I thought he had the chops to succeed. Ownership gave him a long leash. I appreciate what he did do while in Milwaukee, but it's time to move on.
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Last season saw us collapse in September, but the previous two years saw the club do well late. In 2013, we were 59-76 at the end of August. We went 15-12 rest of the way to finish 74-88. In 2012, we were 63-68 at the end of August. We went 20-11 rest of the way to finish 83-79. Both times, especially 2012, gave people hope for the next season. For better or for worse, it sort of set the stage for the club to 'stay the course' and not go into a rebuilding mode. It also gave us lesser draft picks. September ball can be kind of strange, especially when it comes to teams out of the race. Winning no longer is that big of a deal - teams are getting looks at young players, at times having lineups not far removed from AAA. Often times marginal teams can beat up on these kinds of lineups. The upcoming 15 games against Cincy, SD and Miami are the ones where this kind of thing can really happen.
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The free agent 3B are sad. From mlbtraderumors.com: Mike Aviles (35) Gordon Beckham (29) David Freese (33) Maicer Izturis (35) – $3MM club option with a $1MM buyout Casey McGehee (32) Aramis Ramirez (38) Juan Uribe (37) Uribe is an okay hitter, but he's declining, plus he's getting old and fat. Freese is probably the only 'everyday' player in the group. He's hit just over .700 OPS over the past two years, so he's not anything special. If you were a contending club, and you had a huge black hole at 3B, you could probably live with someone like Freese. But guys like him aren't going to be with us long term. Like you say, we need a long term solution. At this point, I probably just roll with Dominguez or someone like him (maybe try some minor league free agents or swing a trade for someone). Perez's bat won't play at 3B, and Rogers glove won't either. Not that I think Dominguez is the long term solution, but he was highly regarded, has shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, and just turned 26 (today!). There's some room in there for him to improve - maybe get things to click. But I honestly don't think it's going to happen. It's not like he's raking at AAA (sub- .700 OPS). Still, he's probably the best option at this time. We can live with an experiment in 2016 - if Dominguez or whomever flops, no big deal. We aren't going to be that good so now is the time to risk it.
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I'll plan on doing one right after the season, then we'll do one toward the end of spring training. How exactly we do the in-season polls can be decided at that time. No matter, it'll be fun adding all the new prospects to the list.
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Carlos can flip as many bats and get angry/be happy about anything he wants in my book. He was upset at a missed opportunity - big deal. How's that 'showing up' pitcher. 'Playing the game the right way' is mostly (but not all) crap. Not every person should be a cookie cutter of old school white players. A pitcher pumps his fist after a strike out - big deal. It's not like the pitcher is pointing at the batter and taunting him. A batter watches a sure HR for a second or two, or flips his bat on an HR - big deal. It's not like he's taunting the pitcher or doing a salsa dance around the bases. If a pitcher is so offended by that they shouldn't serve up tatters. Of course there are lines of etiquette that get crossed. People can be jerks. Anytime you focus something at an opposing player (pointing, taunting, whatever) you are at risk. Carlos has probably crossed the line a few times in his career, but stuff like Girardi is complaining about is crap. Girardi's team was getting stomped and he was in a bad mood. With no dog to kick, he went after the low hanging fruit with Gomez. In my opinion, it's pretty silly.
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That was a helluva catch.
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What is Brent Suter's ceiling?
Matt Breen replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Been had a superior curveball - at least it was good when he could control it. Suter (and lots of other guys) don't sport any one great tool, which can hurt them in the long run. -
Wily Peralta: Why is he struggling?
Matt Breen replied to FVBrewerFan's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Injuries, bad fielding team, inconsistent team - it's likely all part of Wily's problems. I'm not going to discount the lower strike rate and velocity decrease - those are worrisome. But at this point you have to just look to ride out the year, hope Wily puts it together, and comes into 2016 refreshed and a more mature player. Like you said, he had a nice year in 2014, you have to feel there's enough talent to rebound.
