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Everything posted by Matt Breen
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YoungGeezy, I think you probably hit things pretty well. You identified most of the key players. At this point, you just have to let them move through the minor league system and see who really emerges. So many of them are really young, so it's hard to predict who is going to pan out. Of our current players, like you said, Davis and Scooter are just guys. You hope they continue to improve, but I wouldn't be shocked if either ended up washing out. I don't see big upsides in either. Segura has potential to be better than average - but again, time will tell. For the time being, let's give him and Scooter and Davis a chance to produce. Jerking them around will do little to help us out. Like And That said, Braun is untradeable, so we are stuck with him. And we probably need to look to deal Gomez and Lucroy. If you can add 4-6 quality prospects to the list you have, it really helps the system. Add in some high draft picks in the next few years, and a good core of players might emerge in a few years. And we can't forget to keep producing players like Davis and Scooter - maybe they won't be stars, but they can contribute. There's a lot of guys at the AAA and AA level who can help out in future - Goforth, Wagner, Cravy, Strong, Hall, etc. Filling a 5th start role or a 4th reliever role at 500K instead of $5 million is important to this franchise.
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Ryan Braun - Worst Contract in Franchise History?
Matt Breen replied to JJHardy7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Suppan provided -0.8 bWAR during his time in Milwaukee for $44 million. He was a massive suck on resources at a time when we needed the money for other areas. The guy was paid $44 million to hurt this team. This was an awful contract. Braun will make $105M with his extension. I'm betting he can rack up 10.0 bWAR in that time. That's 2.0 WAR a year. Perhaps I'm wrong. Maybe all the injuries, his age and PED issues mean he's just junk now. 10.0 WAR for $10M isn't a good deal - but it still is worth something. Braun was sitting at an .863 OPS just 1/2 a season ago - it makes me think he can do that again. It's a matter of getting healthy and putting together some good stretches. Again, it's just me, but I think it will happen. -
Perez would have forced us to open up a roster spot. Plus, with the way this club is playing, he's not in our long term plans. While Wooten isn't anything special, he's cheap and he's under control for another 5 years. If he can prove to be an adequate reliever, he'll help us a lot more than Perez ever will. If he flops, the world won't end. But right now it's not like him or Perez is going to save our season.
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Ryan Braun - Worst Contract in Franchise History?
Matt Breen replied to JJHardy7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I really wish we didn't have the Braun extension on the books, but I'm not convinced it'll be the worst thing ever. The guy is signed through his age 37 season - not 40+ like Miggy, A-Rod and Pujols. I think there's a good chance he'll provide some value (how much is a good guess) during that time. The Braun extention kicks in at a 'good' time - good in the sense that I think the club needs to rebuild. That means shedding long term commitments (via trade or letting players reach FA), and focusing on building via the draft over the next few years. This means a low salary for the club, and Braun's $15M isn't going to really hurt us since we aren't under pressure to 'go for it'. The key is avoiding adding too many long term deals (the only one I can imagine now would be Lucroy, but we have a habit of adding $10-12M a year pitchers). The massive commitment to Braun may very well make it the worst contract in team history, but he's young enough that he can actually prove to be a productive player. -
Blacks in Baseball (HBO Real Sports)
Matt Breen replied to pacopete4's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's so many things. Competition from football, basketball, soccer, lacrosse, etc. Baseball is difficult to organize (and expensive to maintain) in the inner city (no fields, or the ones set up aren't always cared for). Cost (at my son's high school it costs over $1,000 for a season - tough for lower income families). And then there's what Chris Rock is talking about - Baseball is boring and stodgy. Baseball is not sexy. It just isn't attractive to young kids (especially blacks). -
What distraction should the Brewers Front Office do next?
Matt Breen replied to billymac's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think that the Brewers should bring in Jeff the Diseased Lung Guy from the John Oliver Show. Jeff can roam around the designated smoking areas. http://cdn.inquisitr.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/jdl-ss-replace-665x385.jpg For anyone who hasn't seen the story, go watch it - - it's pretty funny. -
Broxton or KRod to Det?
Matt Breen replied to jerichoholicninja's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
At this point, any trade of Broxton or K-Rod (you can add in Cotts) is strictly going to be dumping salary. Anyone we get will be just a non-prospect. I guess any of these guys could get on an extended hot streak and jack up their value. But aside from Cotts, they are still expensive pieces for their respective positions. Also, I do think that money does matter to Detroit - otherwise they would have shelled out money for Neshek, Gregerson and other quality relievers in the off season. Detroit's bullpen issues are long standing. Should be noted that there's nothing wrong with salary relief. If we have a bad season the club will likely need to find ways to make sure for lost revenue (assuming attendance goes down with poor play - which it usually does). -
Brewers' failure in developing talent from Latin America
Matt Breen replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Maldonado was not signed by the Brewers as an amateur. He was originally in the Angels organization (a draft pick). Forgot about Escobar. We're up to two guys over the last 20 years. Anyone else? As noted, Lopez was a 2nd round pick, not an amateur free agent. Rivera was a 9th round pick. The rest of the players are part of a much-needed reinvestment in the international market, but they are just prospects at this point. And that's the exact point - we have to continue this investment if we want to succeed. -
Brewers' failure in developing talent from Latin America
Matt Breen replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Correct. It was specifically amateur free agents. -
I don't think it's any secret that Milwaukee has been bad at developing talent from Latin America. Outside of Wily Peralta, who was the last good amateur free agent from Latin America that we developed? I can't think of anyone over the last 20 years (but I'm probably just forgetting). Sure we'll trade for guys from Latin America, but who have we actually signed and developed into a good player? How critical is Latin American (and international) talent? I looked at last year's all star game and here's the breakdown on how these players came into the league: Drafted in the 1st or 2nd round - 28 players Drafted in the 3rd round or later - 20 players Signed as amatuer free agents from Latin America - 21 players International free agent signings (guys like Darvish and Abreu) - 7 players You wonder why Milwaukee has struggled at times and you can see just by looking at this list. Since 2005 (Braun), we haven't drafted any all stars in the first couple of rounds - the most common way to get all-stars. And then the second most common way to develop an all-star is signing amateur talent from Latin American. We simply haven't done that. Has this hurt Milwaukee in other ways? Again, I know we've traded for Latin American born players, and signed them as free agents. But has the lack of presence in these markets made Milwaukee not as attractive a place for Hispanic players? I was curious what other people thought. The good thing is that the team seems to have renewed interest in the Latin American market. They've shelled out some big dollars for such players over the last few years, including Gilbert Lara. As we talk about how we can make this franchise a winner, I think that a concentrated effort in the Latin American market is critical. There's a lot of talent being developed that we have been missing out on for far too long. Better drafting (also critical) is just one part of the puzzle - we have to be a player in this market as well.
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The tough thing about our drafts in the late 2000s that we missed badly on our premium picks (1st and 2nd rounders). Brent Brewer, Cody Adams, Kyle Heckathorn, Kentrail Davis, Eric Arnett, Evan Frederickson, Cutter Dykstra, Seth Lintz, Max Walla. Jimmy Nelson and Jeremy Jeffress are the only guys from the 2006-10 draft era that are still on the team and look like they could be decent (neither has done much yet, but there is some promise). In all fairness, we traded the two best players - Lawrie and Odorizzi - so you have to acknowledge those picks are looking decent. Another traded pick, LaPorta, bombed. Still, that 2006-10 era of top picks is a mostly a black hole. We missed on so many picks, and these are the premium picks that have the best chance to turn into all stars. By comparison, from 2001-2005, we produced J.J. Hardy, Gallardo, Braun, Weeks and Fielder in the early rounds. Each of those guys has been to the all-star game, and they provided the core around the decent clubs of 2008-11. Thankfully, we hit on some lower picks in the draft during the 2006-10 time frame - Davis, Lucroy, Thornburg, Fiers. These guys have been, so far, far more productive than the upper picks. We should add into this the team's horrible track record in Latin America. Outside of Wily Peralta, we have failed badly to develop players from the international arena.
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10 game winning streak coming up. Let's do it.
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How do we turn this sad franchise around?
Matt Breen replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I just hope going forward management and ownership recognize that this season is probably lost, not hoodwink themselves into thinking we are better than we are, and move forward with a comprehensive plan to make us a contender down the road. We've all talked about how that can happen, and I hope the club makes some wise choices. I'm not so much concerned about all the past decisions than those going forward. I realize we can learn from those past decisions, but to me, it's about getting the entire organization on the same page going forward, putting in place the right people (GM, coaches, managers, scouts, etc.), and making sound baseball decisions. It's about drafting well, using the international market (something we've been really bad about), using free agency wisely, maintaining organizational and financial flexibility, and making sure we stay on course with said plans. -
Thornburg optioned; Wooten recalled
Matt Breen replied to JohnBriggs12's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Thornburg is joining the starting rotation at AAA. http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/119814952/brewers-option-tyler-thornburg-recall-rob-wooten-from-triple-a -
If the Brewers go into rebuild mode, it really gives us a chance evaluate certain players. You just go with the young guys and see how they play. Yes, they will be bad. But perhaps a few rise to top, and become part of a better foundation. When the team is middle of the road, they are reluctant to play younger guys. We end up with players like Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay instead of Jason Rogers and Matt Clark. I'm not saying Clark and Rogers would do better - but we'll never know if they aren't given a fair shake. Knowing the season is lost, you can do that - let guys like Clark, Rogers, Jimenez and so forth get some consistent playing time. Lind, A-Ram, Gomez, Parra, Garza, Lohse, K-Rod, Cotts - these guys probably aren't going to be part of the next good Brewers team. Let's find guys who will be and give them a chance.
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Thornburg optioned; Wooten recalled
Matt Breen replied to JohnBriggs12's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I wouldn't be surprised if Knebel is being kept in the minors another month or so to prevent him from qualifying for a full season of eligibility. He appeared in 8 games last season - but I'm not sure how many days he was on the roster. If you brought him up now - and kept him in Milwaukee all season - he probably would have a full year of service. Waiting a few more weeks or will probably prevent that. -
Herrera recalled.....Scooter to 15 day DL
Matt Breen replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I know it's a small sample and all, but it's pretty sad that the in one game our bench warmers and AAAA guys have done more offensively than our "stars" have done all season. If only we could face Jason Marquis every night. -
How do we turn this sad franchise around?
Matt Breen replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Trading prospects for veterans should always be considered. The key is you need to develop a lot of prospects so that you that when you deal some of them, you're not emptying the pipeline of quality (and cheap) players. -
How do we turn this sad franchise around?
Matt Breen replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I thought this was an appropriate thread to revive. I would recommend reading Splitter's lengthy introduction at the start of the thread. viewtopic.php?f=63&t=31991 Anyhow, here's my response to the question: Recognize this franchise needs an overhaul, then do it, without prejudice. Know it's going to take time, and there will be some lean years. Steps - Trade Gomez once he's healthy. He can fetch a couple of top prospects. You have one of the clubs better prospects at AA, and Gomez is only signed through 2016, so he's not an answer - Trade Parra, Cotts, K-Rod for whatever you can get for them, even if it's only a little salary relief. - If Lind continues to hit, trade him. If he doesn't, just let him go after the season. He's not a long term solution. If he plays well this year, he might net a decent prospect. - Give 1B to Rogers/Clark. See if either/both can make something out of the position. - Trade Garza and Lohse if you get the chance. Both have to play better, but neither will be part of the next good Milwaukee team, so deal them if you can, getting whatever you can. - Let Scooter play full time at 2B. If he falters against lefties, you learn that now, in the lost season. If he does okay, you can look at him as an everyday player going forward. - Let Segura play. If he does well, it gives you options in the future. You can shift him to 2B (his original position) once Arcia is ready (assuming he profiles as a better player than Scooter). Or he becomes a quality trade chip. If he fails, that's life. - Hope A-Ram gets his game back. If he does, then deal him for anything, even salary relief. - Let Jimenez take over for A-Ram sooner than later. Jimenez is old enough that it's now or never. Let him show if he's a future starter or not. - Leave Khris Davis alone. He might end up a bust, or he could be a 30 HR guy. Let him figure it out without fear of getting benched this year. - Consider trading Lucroy once he's healthy. He's a top flight player in his prime, signed to a great contract, and (like Gomez) would bring back quality prospects. That said, you could look to extend Luc down the road, recognizing that there might not be a #1 catcher in the farm system. An aging Luc still might be the best thing for the club in a few years. A lot might depend if you can acquire a top catching prospect in the draft or via trade. - Let Maldonado be the #1 catcher if you deal Lucroy. He's signed for cheap over the next two years. The young pitchers will benefit from having him (or Luc) behind the plate. If you elect to keep Luc, look to deal Maldy for a prospect. - Give the CF job to Schafer (or someone similar). The guy has always hit minor league pitching. He's in his prime years. Maybe playing everyday will help him become an adequete starter. If he fails, you figure that out now when losing doesn't really matter. You can always find other players similar to Schafer - AAAA types who haven't gotten the chance. Either way, if the guy succeeds you have something - if not, no lose in this down year. We need to do the following: - Hire a GM and manager who will grow and develop the club. Get everyone (coaches, front office, ownership) on the same page so that the path we need to take is clearly defined. Internal strife will only lead to mixed priorities and mediocre results. - Build through the draft, international signings, and being willing to trade established players for quality prospects. - Don't be afraid to be bad for a few years. The high draft picks help. - Don't be afraid to spend money on international players - anything to help stock the farm system. - When acquiring prospects, aim to get as high upside players as possible. If that means the guys in A ball, so be it. I hate how teams are always saying they want 'Major league ready' players in a deal. Just get the best quality players as possible. Understand that we are stuck with Braun. If he starts hitting well again, we might be able to deal him at some point. But the guy is making $20+ million annually starting next year. No one wants that contract right now. - Keep payroll low for flexibility. When the club appears to show some signs of life, having the salary flexibility will help push us over the edge. Don't be foolish and add Lohse type players when we know we are destined to have a bad season. Nothing wrong with Lohse, just not at this time. - Use free agency sparingly. FA is a bad game. I'd rather give Tyler Cravy a chance as our #5 starter than sign a guy like Kevin Correia for $5 million to throw mediocre (at best) ball. It doesn't mean it can't be used, but be wise about it. It's not an answer to the team's problems - it's a tool to be used when needed. The future for Milwaukee is several years away. We need impact players. It's guys like Arcia, Taylor and Coulter at this point. But that's not enough. We have to make some deals and add several more players like them - guys who could be above average - even stars. We'll need to deal Gomez and maybe Luc to get such players. I want 6-7 Top 100 type players coming to Milwaukee in the next wave. Not 2-3. Then, keep drafting well, make some international signings, so we keep replenishing the well with top notch prospects such as Harrison and Medeiros and Lara. That's how you win - and that's how you sustain winning. -
Maybe they put Thornburg into the rotation with the anticipation that Lohse and Garza won't be around next year (assuming you trade Garza because he offers little for a rebuilding club). I'm not sold on Thornburg as a starter, but to be fair, he had some success back in 2013 (6-7 starts if I recall), and I haven't seen him this year. Think to the future at this point. Rotation candidates are few and far between. If you move Tyler there, you can trot out him, Cravy and Jungmann next year (or later this year) to go with Wily, Nelson and Fiers. It's not great looking, but you can see who sinks and who swims as you rebuild.
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Blake Swihart & Henry Owens
Matt Breen replied to pacopete4's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Swihart is an excellent prospect, but still a prospect. He's just potential. There's buckets full of top 20 can't miss prospects who never panned out. Luc is a proven player in his prime. If the Sox thought he'd put them over the top, they would be hard-pressed to not want a guy like Luc. Plus, even if Swihart turns out to be good, it often takes time for catchers to develop, so he might start out with a couple of averageish seasons. The Sox would get Luc for three years at his peak. No uncertainty, no waiting. Luc's injury makes this all a moot point. Not to mention the fact that Boston has other issues (starting pitching) that they may need to address. But if Luc was healthy, he should easily fetch, in my opinion, a couple of top prospects in trade (if we decide to go down that path). -
This is exactly why Yount won't be the guy. If this was a good team that just needed a steward, I could see Yount in consideration. But this is a pretty tough situation, and will take time. The club won't want to tarnish Robin's image. As for Counsel, I could see him as GM, but maybe not manager. As GM, he could do the 'it's going to take time to rebuild' routine without getting too burned. The on field manager - maybe not so much.
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What Many Brewers Fans May Think, But Dare Not Say (Yet)
Matt Breen replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Since 2006 we have drafted 15 guys in the first round (includes supplemental picks; doesn't include Dylan Covey), plus 12 second round picks. Of those players, they have so far produced 1.0 bWAR (thanks Mr. Jeffress) for Milwaukee. Out of these 27 premium picks - 2 guys are on the team this year (Jeffress, Nelson) - 10 have been cut or dealt to other teams who cut them (Walla, Dykstra, Lintz, Adams, Frederickson, LaPorta, Brewer, Heckathorn, K. Davis, Arnett) - 5 guys were drafted in the past two years, so it's unrealistic to expect them to contribute (Harrison, Medeiros, Gatewood, D. Williams, Neuhaus) - 7 remain in the system (Jungmann, Coulter, Lopez, Taylor, Bradley, Garfield, Roache) - 2 were traded and have had success thus far (Lawrie, Odorizzi) I guess the best thing is that the more recent picks show potential to be good, but even of the guys still in the system, most don't look like they have lots of upside. You have to go back to 2005, when we took Braun, to find a real impact player. As people have noted, we have done okay in some of the later rounds with guys like Scooter and Davis. But teams need to hit their premium picks more than we have. We don't have the money to buy our way out of poor drafts, like Boston or New York.

