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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Matt Breen
    If the Brewers trade Weeks in the off season, we won't get much for him (if anything). And we'll probably have to assume 90% of his salary. I wouldn't be surprised if he was simply released and we eat his salary. But one avenue that might work is swapping Weeks for someone else's bad contract. So the challenge is to find a player(s) on another team in the last year of his deal, with similar contract numbers, that we could realistically swap Rickie for. Obviously, the other team would have to have some use for Rickie. An example would be Ryan Dempster, who's due $13 million next year (although Boston doesn't need Rickie).
  2. Matt Breen
    Calling what Bianchi does 'hitting' is being too kind. :D I never figured Bianchi for much more than back of the bench filler, but he's been really bad this year. No power, and his OBP stinks. Maybe he's somewhat better than this, but for someone who may get 200-250 PA's, I'd like to get someone that can either hit with a little bit of power, or draw a walk once in a while. Bianchi does neither. Bianchi's hitting has certainly been disappointing. I've been happy with his defense. That alone gives him some value. But it would be nice to see him hit a little more. Let's hope that part of his game develops a little more next season.
  3. Matt Breen
    Have the D-backs taken the crown from the Cardinals as the caretakers how baseball should be played? http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/9695662/arizona-diamondbacks-take-exception-los-angeles-dodgers-partying-pool
  4. Matt Breen
    I just read that our 1B this season have a WAR of -4.2 - the 2nd worst number EVER accumulated. The 1920 Athletics had a -4.3 WAR. Wow. Only Sean Halton has a positive WAR at the position. Sean Halton (+0.2 WAR) Alex Gonalzez (-1.1 WAR) Juan Francisco (-1.1 WAR) Yuniesky Betancourt (-1.7 WAR)
  5. Matt Breen
    I think the team will re-sign Hart. The Brewers had the top scoring offense in 2012. They'll look to recapture that with the return of Braun, Hart and A-Ram. As for pitching, they'll bank on Lohse to stay solid, Yo rebounding, Estrada putting together a full season of decent play, Peralta to get better, and the bullpen to stay very good. They'll then hope one of our young pitchers, such as Thornburg, can hold down the back end of the rotation. So, essentially, we'll go for it again. Just like this year. And hope we don't have key injuries, suspensions or guys declining too much from age. Couple of issues: first, unlike 2012, we don't get to beat up on Houston all season. I think that padded a lot of stats in the past. Second, it relies on so many things going well. That just doesn't happen very often. It's not impossible, but it's unlikely. I think Mark A. will convince himself we are good enough, and resigning Hart will help. It will be a good PR move, something he likes.
  6. Matt Breen
    Nice to hear Hart wants to be here. Even if it doesn't work, you have to appreciate the sentiment. He'd be smart to try and get back with Milwaukee - even for a year. Pressure would be minimal here. He knows the job is his. He could go out and try and have a good year, and sign one last decent contract after that.
  7. Matt Breen
    Brewers are sitting right at $90 million for next season if you include buyouts: Lohse: $11.0 million Weeks: 12.0 Ramirez: 16.0 Braun: 11.0 Gallardo: 11.5 Gomez: 7.0 Gorzelanny: 2.95 Lucroy: 2.1 Aoki: 1.5 (this might be higher - he has some escalator clauses in his contract) Estrada: 2.5 (arby eligible, he made $1.955 million in 2013) Badenhop: 2.0 (arby eligible, he made $1.55 million in 2013) 11 players: $78.25 million 14 players @ $500,000 = $7.0 million TOTAL: $85.25 million Plus, A-Ram is due a $4 million buyout if his contract isn't picked up for 2015. Also, there's a $1 million buyout for Weeks. If those are included in 2014 salary, we are looking at $90.25 million. Plus, injuries usually means we have to add a couple of million in salary during the course of the year. This assumes that Gonzalez, Hart and Yuni leave as free agents. This assumes that Gamel and Francisco are not kept. Otherwise, both are arby eligible for the first time. But neither would make that much if kept. We could save a little money by non tendering Badenhop. We could try and trade Weeks, but we'd likely still end up paying 90% of his salary (unless we took a bad contract back). Bottom line: Short of trading a big money player who we don't have to kick in a ton of money on, like Lohse or Yo, we probably won't have a lot of wiggle room if our spending doesn't increase. We're relying on a ton of young guys as it is. If the team pushed the $4 million buyout for A-Ram and Weeks into 2015, we could probably add a modestly priced player (Hart would probably fit this bill).
  8. Matt Breen
    Only problem is having two guys who only play one position. As suggested, we probably would need to dump Ricky and add someone who can play more than just 2B. That means we'd probably bring back Yuni.
  9. Matt Breen
    The more I see Scooter against lefties, the more he looks completely lost. It's a really small sample, so I probably shouldn't see too much into it, but it's hard not to be a little worried. It seems they throw to him inside or down and out and he flails at it. Right now, he's 2 for 28 with 11k against lefties.
  10. Matt Breen
    His role on CHIPS was awesome. http://chroniclesofdad.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/ponch-chips.jpg
  11. Matt Breen
    Awesome AP photo of Bianchi scoring on the suicide squeeze last night.
  12. Matt Breen
    Grilli and Burnett have done it two years in a row. Burnett in 2012: 202 IP, 3.51 ERA Burnett in 2013: 170 IP (so far), 3.43 ERA Grilli in 2012: 58 IP, 2.91 ERA Grilli in 2013: 46 IP (so far), 2.91 ERA (30 saves compared to 2 in 2012)
  13. Matt Breen
    Very, very true. Often times it's guys just called up from the minors playing against other guys just called up from the minors.
  14. Matt Breen
    The Pirates home runs allowed numbers are crazy. Only one guy has given up double digit HRs - Wandy Rodriguez has allowed 10 HR. The Brewers have 8 guys that have given up 10+ HR.
  15. Matt Breen
    Wondering what people think about Caleb Gindl being our primary RF in 2014. He's been pretty good since coming up - showing good patience at the plate and decent power. From what I've seen so far, I really like his swing. He's not trying to overdo things and isn't hacking at stuff. In the minors, he hasn't had big splits, so he could, conceivably, play every day. Is it unrealistic to ask for a .780-.800 OPS out of him? I'm not expecting him to hit 25 HR, but 15 doesn't seem out of the question. You could platoon him with Davis, but that might compromise your defense a bit too much. If you put Gindl in RF, you could then trade Aoki for an asset or two.
  16. Matt Breen
    I thought this was a really interesting article about Pittsburgh's evolving philosophy with regards to defense and pitching, including the extensive use of shifts, and the value of inducing ground balls. http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/4689239-74/pirates-defensive-season#axzz2f4BnFVMH It was interesting to hear how the club - including their old school manager - embraced the changes (for the most part). Hurdle didn't just blow off the stat guys, but figured out how the team could benefit from it. The Crew are already big into defensive shifts, so it's not like this isn't anything new. But I liked how the Pirate organization embraced the challenge from top to bottom. It appears to have helped them improve by using the assets they have, or adding players that fit their system and needs. I'm sure there are a lot of other factors in Pittsburgh improved performances. But it was a pretty interesting read.
  17. Matt Breen
    I think a team with the above additions could potentially make the playoffs, but it would be difficult. A major injury or two and we are screwed because of our lack of depth. And we'd be counting on Hart and A-Ram to come back strong. Plus Braun. You'd need a good streak of luck to win with the above additions. Not impossible by any means, but tough.
  18. Matt Breen
    Since the all-star break, Segura is hitting .246 BA / .272 OBP / .312 SLG / .584 OPS He's had virtually no power (1 triple, 1 HR) in that time frame. He's not stealing bases at a great rate (16 SB, 7 CS). And he's striking out at an increased rate (35k on 199 ABs compared to 48k on 372 ABs pre all-star break). I think a long off season of rest would do the guy wonders. He seems to have just lost his legs. But let's hope his post all-star performance is an aberration.
  19. Matt Breen
    Lohse was not a 'bad' signing because he did poorly. He's been really good. The signing was 'bad' because we expend resources (1st round draft pick, $33 million) while still not being good enough to the make the playoffs. We should have saved those resources to make us better in 2015 or 2016, when we might have a chance to compete better. Of course, we have hindsight to make the 'bad' signing call. What if Gallardo had pitched like in the past? What if Braun, A-Ram and Hart been around for a full season? I'm still don't think we would have been playoff caliber - but you never know. The same goes for next year. Perhaps things all fall into place and we make a go of it. Then the Lohse signing looks better. The problem is that we aren't likely to get good enough over the next season or two to make the playoffs. Thus making the signing a futile - in the long run.
  20. Matt Breen
    It's so obvious. Segura looks visibly tired, everyone is talking about it, and they could play Bianchi... Hell, they can throw Betancourt in at shortstop if they want to, since the season is lost anyway. Keeping Segura healthy for next season should be the priority at this point. I'd like to point out that it's not just Segura. There's no point in pushing someone like Kintzler, who's only two years removed from arm surgery. If we were in a pennant race, sure you bring out the best guys. But if guys are showing fatigue - especially pitchers - give them extra rest. With so many guys in the bullpen, it just makes sense.
  21. Matt Breen
    Regarding Segura's second half slide, in a chat today, Haudricourt said that Segura is simply 'gassed'. I hope he doesn't play winter ball and just recharges for next season. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/222889981.html
  22. Matt Breen
    I am not banking on the Brewers to be particularly good in 2014. Therefore, I'd look to develop our own pitching. Gallardo, Lohse, Estrada, Peralta look like locks for next year, but I'd pick someone from Thornburg, Hellweg and Nelson to be the #5 guy. I'd rather try and let our young guys have a chance. So many of the free agents have health issues, age issues, skill issues, etc. And then there's the cost of $10 million or more for multiple years. If a lot of things go right next year the team, we could, conceivably, be contenders. If we need another starter at that time, we can have the financial flexibility to add a salary dump from another team - like the Dodgers getting Nolasco for next to nothing. Either path has risks, but at least we are not on the hook for a huge salary if the guy tanks.
  23. Matt Breen
    Just for fun, I'm going to throw out Masahiro Tanaka as potential free agent to consider. I realize that the Brewers are not likely to get into big money players like this, but I thought it was something to consider. Here's Tanaka's stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=tanaka003mas In 2013, he is currently 20-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA. He'll be 25 in November. A lot of people will compare him to Yu Darvish, but from what I've read, he doesn't have the killer fastball that Darvish has. The Rangers spent $112 million on Darvish. $52 million on the posting fee, then a six year, $60 million contract for the player. If Tanaka is posted this offseason (not a guarantee), he probably cost just as much (I base this on the fact that while he probably isn't considered as good as Darvish, there's more and more money available to spend than a couple of years ago). The Brewers were willing to do $100 million for Greinke two years ago. If you had the chance, would you be willing to do a similar number for Tanaka? Again, I realize that the Brewers are highly unlikely to put down a $50 million posting fee. They simply don't have that kind of cash. But I was wondering what people thought about the guy. It should be noted that the top, young arms in free agency are Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Nolasco and Lincecom. None of those guys is without warts (durability, injuries, inconsistency), but they could probably be had for less. But Tanaka might be the type of guy who could become a #1 or #2 type pitcher for quite a few years. He's only 25 and he's dominated Japan.
  24. Matt Breen
    Thanks. My head feels like it's going to explode. Now I remember that. I think I might have been trying to suppress the memory so I stay sane.
  25. Matt Breen
    The author has used Baseball Reference: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gennet001rya&type=bgl&year=2013 This incorporates AAA and major leagues. He either didn't realize that, or wasn't clear about it in the article.
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