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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Matt Breen
    The New York Yankees are reportedly near a deal for radio broadcast rights that will next them $150-200 million over the next decade. http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/9/10/4715590/mlb-yankees-wfan-radio-deal-cbs The $15-20 million a year is as much or more than what some teams get for television rights.
  2. Matt Breen
    Interesting article about Scooter at Disciples of Uecker: http://disciplesofuecker.com/should-scooter-gennett-start-in-2014/14442 They point out that Scooter really struggles against lefties - that includes the majors (very small sample size) as well as the minors. In the limited ABs I've seen Scooter against lefties, he looks like he's going to have issues with them.
  3. Matt Breen
    Fondy, recall the Shouse/Howard debacle. I don't recall it.
  4. Matt Breen
    David Schoenfield at ESPN just eviscerated Yost as well for the same thing. Great run down of how a manager can be big difference to a team - in a bad way. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/40165/yost-kills-royals-with-awful-ninth-inning
  5. Matt Breen
    How about we just change the title. Does that work?
  6. Matt Breen
    Tim Johnson (1973) Games: 136 Plate Appearances: 510 HR: 0 RBI: 32 SB: 6 BB%: 5.7% K%: 18.2 % Average: .213 OB%: .259 SLG: .243 OPS: .502 WAR Fielding: -6.0 WAR Baserunning: 0.2 WAR: -1.7 Yuni (2011) Games: 152 Plate Appearances: 584 HR: 13 RBI: 68 SB: 4 BB%: 2.7% K%: 10.8 % Average: .252 OB%: .271 SLG: .381 OPS: .652 WAR Fielding: -6.7 WAR Baserunning: 1.3 WAR: 0.1 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1969&ind=1&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Scroll down and you'll see the rankings. For all of Yuni's failings, he still provided some decent power for the position. He's actually the fourth worst season with a positive 0.1 WAR rating. These are only guys who qualified for the batting title. You can filter it so you add guys with less ABs. More guys will show up. You just have to be careful as some guys might show up under the SS category, but they didn't play many games there. For all the players at all the position, I didn't slot them into a position unless they played at least 50 or so games there.
  7. Matt Breen
    Precisely. It's based strictly on WAR from Fangraphs. It's one way (but not the only way) to look at a player. But it does allow you to place a strict value on a player's entire value for a year. I'd have loved to put Yuni in here, but some other guys just managed to beat him (both at SS and 1B). I hate having Simmons on the list because he's a near HOFer, but honestly, his 1984 season was awful. He had a .569 OPS playing mostly DH.
  8. Matt Breen
    I love history. And I was thinking about some of the bad players that have come through Milwaukee (kind of sad when you think about it). So I used WAR from Fangraphs to put together the worst lineup in Brewer history. I used the worst season at each position. I kept it so that the players started at least 1/2 the season - so around 300 ABs. C - Chad Moeller (2004), -1.0 WAR - .265 OBP, mediocre defense. 1B - Sean Berry (1999), -2.2 WAR - our 1B had a .582 OPS. Berry classifies as the worst all-time Brewer hitter with a -2.7 WAR lifetime. 2B - Ronnie Belliard (2002), -2.2 WAR - .257 OBP - Sucked at 2B and 3B. SS - Tim Johnson (1973), -1.7 WAR - .213 BA. Never hit an HR in over 1,200 ABs in his career. 3B - Wes Helms (2004) -1.4 WAR - The -16.6 UZR rating killed him. LF - Jim Wolford (1977), -1.4 WAR - Our LF had a .605 OPS. And he wasn't a very good defender. CF - Von Joshua (1977), -2.1 WAR - Dude had a -22 UZR. Ouch. The .286 OBP didn't help. RF - Dick Davis (1980), -0.6 WAR - Did nothing well. Did everything slightly below average. DH - Ted Simmons (1984), -2.4 WAR - Worst WAR ever for a Brewer hitter. Hit .221 playing mostly DH, plus a little 1B and 3B. Brutal. P - Doug Davis (2004), -0.9 WAR - This is just his hitting WAR. He had ONE hit in 71 ABs. That's a .016 BA and a .047 OPS. I took a perverse joy in putting together this list. Share your memories. Enjoy!
  9. Matt Breen
    I think you pretty much nailed it. Nelson's walk rate has spiked as he's adjusted to the PCL. Not a shocker. That he's kept his HRs low is fantastic, and that he had a great walk rate at AA is a good sign. It also might mean he needs a little more time at AAA to sharpen up his game, but we'll see. Nelson does generate a lot of ground balls. Hellweg even more so. And I think Jungmann does as well. Since none of these guys is considered a stud pitcher, having a better defense would really help them. We have just been atrocious this year. For all the struggles of Peralta, another ground ball oriented pitcher, our defense deserves some of he blame. Especially the infield. The range on A-Ram, Weeks, Francisco and Yuni has awful. Not to mention all the errors.
  10. Matt Breen
    If 3 out of 4 of these guys become a quality big league starter, the Brewers would be ecstatic. Top 100 rated pitchers generally fail 75% of the time as a starter. And successful ones can often take time (often years) to reach their potential. Many will go on to be effective relievers, but you're lucky if 1 in 4 of the guys becomes a quality starter. It's why you need so many pitching prospects. Guys simply don't cut it as big league starters. Some are injured. Some take time to get there. Others just don't have the stuff and/or command needed. I'm not counting out three of the guys succeeding as a starter - but historically, the odds are against it.
  11. Matt Breen
    Brewers starting lineup for 9/4 RF Norichika Aoki CF Carlos Gomez 1B Jonathan Lucroy 3B Aramis Ramirez LF Khris Davis 2B Yuniesky Betancourt SS Jeff Bianchi C Martin Maldonado RHP Wily Peralta YUNI!!!! I guess the four hits for Segura in the last two games means he needs a rest. So instead of Bianchi at 2B and Segura at SS, we get YUNI!!! The insanity!
  12. Matt Breen
    Couple of fun notes: Casey McGehee is hitting .307 in Japan. He has 22 HR and a .913 OPS. Also, Nyjer Morgan is hitting .305 in Japan. 11 dingers and an .836 OPS. Curiously, he only has 2 SBs. Glad to see some old friends doing well.
  13. Matt Breen
    I totally agree with this. An average Scooter at less than a million bucks is a nice player to have. It gives the team nice financial flexibility. It doesn't mean we don't upgrade the position if the opportunity comes along. But it is a nice option to have. And like brewcrewdue80 says, it doesn't have to six years. It could be three or four or whatever works out. Maybe in four years we have Arcia coming up to play SS, and you move Segura there. Or whatever. It's just an example. The team doesn't have a ton of wiggle room with regard to salaries. It has around $82 million committed to payroll next year. Plus there's a $4 million buyout of A-Ram's contract if we don't want him in 2015. We only have two arby eligible guys - Badenhop and Estrada (I incorporated their guesstimated salaries into the $82 million total). We could shed a few million by not offering either of them a contract, but that's unlikely with Estrada. Perhaps Badenhop. A trade of a player is possible as well. But there's not a lot of room here to add any major talent, unless we are willing to increase the payroll beyond the $90 million or so that it's at this year. Cheap, productive guys are essential to our success. If Scooter can play at an average level (and who knows, maybe better), he's a good player to have at this stage.
  14. Matt Breen
    I happened to look at Mark Buehrle's career stats and have to give the guy some serious credit. He's always been a more under the radar type guy - not lots of strikeouts, no 20 win seasons, etc. But take a look at this: 12 straight seasons with more than 200 innings pitched. He's at 179 now, and with another 4 starts, he should get 200 again this year. 12 years straight with 30 or more starts (he's at 28 starts this year, so he'll likely extend that streak) 13 straight years of double digit wins 185 career wins His career WHIP is 1.27. This year he's at 1.30 His career ERA is 3.83. This year he's at 3.92 48.1 fWAR for his career. 55.1 bWAR. I have to give some serious credit to the guy. He goes out every year and just gets the job done. Nothing fancy, just a solid, workman-like guy.
  15. Matt Breen
    I like Nelson a lot. He wasn't great at AAA, but was decent. He's simply walking too many guys. But his walk rate at Nashville was excellent. And the guy doesn't get killed by HRs. He's given up 23 over 450+ innings in his minor league career. At AAA this year he gave up only 2 HR in 83 innings. That's pretty awesome. His splits weren't outrageous either - righties hitting him for a .610 OPS while lefties hit him for a .731 clip. The guy is a groundball pitcher, so the team's defense will be a very important element to his success (same goes for Hellweg). I like him to be in our rotation. Maybe even by next year. Unfortunately, we'll probably 'go for it' next season, and sign someone like Arroyo, and thus block our young pitchers. I'd rather give jobs to Hellweg and Nelson and see how they pan out over a full season (sort of like with Peralta this year). Of course, it probably means tossing in the towel for 2014 as the young guys adjust to the big leagues, but I'm okay with that as I don't think we have much of a chance next year.
  16. Matt Breen
    Yuni has the worst OBP (.230) for a player with 300 or more plate appearances since 2000, when Alex Gonzalez had a .229 OBP for the Marlins. The man is Epic.
  17. Matt Breen
    Pirates are getting Morneau for OF Alex Presley.
  18. Matt Breen
    I was thinking the same thing. I love winning, and if we end the season good, it might breed a little optimism for 2014. But I want the better draft pick!!! Oh well.
  19. Matt Breen
    Axford's tweets: "Dear Milwaukee, if you're reading this tweet you already know. I've been traded...." "My arm. My mustache. Everything. I'll be in St. Louis. Area code 314. I love you. AX" gotta love the guy
  20. Matt Breen
    Maybe we'll get Westbrook at the PTBNL.
  21. Matt Breen
    Not surprised Ax was dealt. The destination is a surprise, however. I'm surprised that Melvin would risk Axford coming back to haunt the Brewers over the next couple of years (that's assuming Axford stays with St. Louis beyond 2013). Although I just don't see the Cardinals paying Axford a ton of money next year - so non-tender is probably his fate (unless he is lights out the rest of the year). Otherwise, thanks Ax for everything. It was a nice ride.
  22. Matt Breen
    Yuni has a -3.8 combined WAR since 2008 - easily the worst in baseball. The next closest is our old friend, Mark Kotsay, with a -2.8 WAR.
  23. Matt Breen
    Good for Pittsburgh. I hope they do well. At least beat the Cardinals.
  24. Matt Breen
    It is pretty amazing. I just don't get it. A-Ram is back. Cut Yuni, let Bianchi back up the spot. Have Halton play 1B against lefties. Is it that hard to figure it out? It's not like Yuni is key guy for our team's future. Sigh.
  25. Matt Breen
    I don't know when they added this, but Baseball-Reference picked up the gap in their market left behind by minorleaguesplits.com taking their content offline. BB-Ref offers MiLB spilts now; simply click on the "Minors" link on any player page. Batting splits links are right above the "Player News" section, just below the player name/height/weight/etc. info. 2013: .820 OPS v.RHP, .614 OPS v.LHP 2012: .759 OPS v.RHP, .607 OPS v.LHP http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gennet001rya Scooter has shown some pretty significant splits numbers in the minors. Enough to make you wonder a little. Even if you do a quasi-platoon, as a lefty, he could still get 120-130 starts during a season. Nothing wrong with that. He's only 1 for 15 against lefties in the big leagues. Very, very small sample, but it is something to watch.
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