Many on this board were ready in include Henderson in a deal for Skubal. Thanks, Matt, for not doing that...assuming here he was not part of the package you offered :)
Take a look at this year's numbers:
Skubal: 96.2 IP/ 16 starts. 2.79 ERA 116 SO/ 14 BB so...6 innings per start with 8.2 SO to BB ratio. 1.82 BB/ 9innings 10.85 SO/ 9 innings
Henderson: 44.0 IP/ 9 starts 2.66 ERA 54 SO/ 9 BB so...5 innings pitched per start with 6.0 SO to BB ratio. 1.84 BB/ 9innings 11.05 SO/ 9 innings
someone check my math.... !
Health aside (not a sure thing for either pitcher), the difference isn't as great as I thought. Henderson's shorter starts are to at least some extent due to workload management and stretching out after injury. He's given up 3 ER in his last 15 innings. I think we have our #3 starter already on the club, and we have him under team control. I think when the season is done, Henderson's results may put up there with Miz and Harrison. May will come in a strong 4th.
This isn't to say Skubal isn't better...he is. And, he'll eat up more innings (assuming the elbow stays healthy!). But is the difference enough to justify the cost and the risk? I don't think so.
Now...Logan...don't lay an egg tonight and make me look bad!!