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RobertR

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Everything posted by RobertR

  1. RobertR
    I was at the game tonight. Boy, the Padres have to be kicking themselves for how sloppy they played and the number of chances they let go by. As for the Brewers, the offense still looked ineffectual. Ginter's double was the only hard hit ball all night. Wes' hit was the key play of the game since the Brewers only seriously threatened to score once after that inning. Pods did look scary in centerfield a couple of times as well. Still it's a win. At least the Brewers weren't the ones making the crucial mistakes. Robert
  2. RobertR
    I was at the game tonight. I don't have too much to add, except that the main difference was that Lawrence was consistently throwing strikes and Davis wasn't. And even then the Brewers were in the game until Vizcaino served up that pitch to Burroughs. Other random thoughts. Overbay and Spivey should both be charged with errors on that play. Both of them have to keep the ball in front of them. Spivey looked safe to me, I was sitting behind first, but he certainly forgot to make sure the ball got through the infield and he certainly didn't hustle back. Sad to say it, but Cirillo does indeed look done. Loretta looks like he has plenty left in him. Moving to second was the best thing that could have happened to him. Khalil Greene looks a lot better at SS than I would have thought. He's not a Gold Glover by any means, but he doesn't appear to be a liability either. Giles appeared to have a beef on that call. He really wanted to be thrown out though. People at home probably got a better view. Otsuka looked really good. I was glad when Hoffman came in. Vizcaino looks tired to me. Did anyone catch his velocity? His lower body looks underdeveloped compared to a lot of pitchers and it may be putting additional strain on his arm. Remembering back to the beginning of the season, I believe there were a lot of people projecting the Brewers offense to be about the same as last years, which finished 11th in offense. We may just be in the middle of a correction from their fast start. Robert
  3. RobertR
    Melvin was helped out on that pitching decision by the Expos minor league lineup. I kind of feel bad for Ohka, albeit not yesterday, considering the total lack of support he's receiving. Robert
  4. RobertR
    What a horrible lineup the Expos are tossing out there today. No Vidro, Wilkerson and Everett? Frankly, this should be an easy win for the Brewers, even with Obermueller pitching. Only a gem by Ohka really stands in the way. Robert
  5. RobertR
    Jeff Bennett is clearly not someone who you want in the game if it's even close. Granted, Ned didn't know the Brewers were going to score 5 runs, but it's not like the Expos had Gagne in the bullpen to close if Hernandez ran out of gas. As for Trent Durrington, he's hitting .176 with a .263 OBP and the Brewers are down multiple runs. That's not a time for your worst hitter to come in. It's also an example why someone like MacGruder should be on the team instead of a middle infielder who can't hit. Still, the Brewers won and Ned obviously did some things right, tonight. That said, just because they won doesn't mean that Ned didn't make mistakes either. And some of this is simply roster construction issues. Neither situation may have come up if Ben Ford and Durrington were replaced with competent major leaguers in order to give Yost real options. Robert
  6. RobertR
    Here's why I think Counsell's numbers this year aren't what should be expected from him: 2001 Age 31 .275/.359/.362 2002 Age 32 .282/.348/.351 2003 Age 33 .234/.328/.304 2004 Age 34 .209/.321/.286 (to date) Counsell's OBP and SLG have been in a steady decline over the last few and most projections for this year had him as a .600 to .650 OPS player, more or less. Baseball Prospectus had him as a .248/.329/.331 player with a significant chance of being worse than that. Given his age, he's really not underperforming his projections by much. I think everyone agrees that they'd like to see Bill Hall take a walk or two. Heck, I really don't have a problem with Yost giving Counsell the majority of the playing time. But, I do think Hall should get at least 1 start in just about every series, at least 2 a week, instead of Yost bending over backwards for Counsell. Counsell hasn't been good enough to be handed a starting position for a couple of years now, and nothing he's done this year is inconsistent with that. Robert
  7. RobertR
    To add on to what Chris was saying, no bullpen in the NL has pitched as many innings as the Brewers. Couple that with minor injuries to Burba and Kolb and you're going to have to have important innings sopped up by the 10th, 11th, and 12th men in the bullpen on a semi-frequent basis. Adrian Hernandez only going 4+ on Saturday certainly affected bullpen options on Sunday. Toss in some late innings shakiness on defense, along with an inability to cope with adversity, and the Brewers bullpen also has allowed more unearned runs than any other bullpen in the NL. Edit: To add on, the bullpen is averaging 3.77 IP per game, which over a full season would require each reliever to pitch close to 90 innings. Robert
  8. RobertR
    Is it time to point out that Grieve now has a higher BA, OBP, and SLG than Brady Clark? Robert
  9. RobertR
    Nice job by Davis tonight. The Brewers might be able to get by with only two relievers which is really the best that could be hoped for. Robert
  10. RobertR
    That was a depressing game. Really points out that despite the fact that the Brewers appear to be the deeper, leaner, scrappier team offensively that they were claiming, the pitching staff looks like it's ready to collapse like a house of cards. Melvin and Yost really do have to figure out a plan of action to shore up the pitching staff. Robert
  11. RobertR
    THAT'S definitely the Jimmy Haynes I remember. Good job Lyle. Robert
  12. RobertR
    That's the Jimmy Haynes I remember. He might get out of this inning "limiting" the damage, but he'll have more of these and the bullpen will get a lot of work tonight. Robert
  13. RobertR
    Two walks to start off the game is just begging for trouble. Edit: Looks like Santos worked out of it, but that first inning just screams "white knuckler". Robert
  14. RobertR
    Seven guys must be having a heck of a week to rank ahead of Prince Fielder in BA's Prospect Hot Sheet: You probably could draw those names out of a hat, but let's see. Justin Morneau is hitting .409/.456/.763 with 8 HRs at AAA. Ubaldo Jimenez has a 1.50 ERA, 4 wins vs. no losses, and 44 Ks vs. 8 BBs in 30 IP in a hitters league. OTOH, it is A ball. Jason Kubel is hitting .417/.479/.702 in AA. Gavin Floyd has started 4 games at AA and has yet to allow a run. OTOH, it's only 17 IP, and his K rate, 14 Ks in 17 IP, isn't eyepopping. David Wright is hitting .370/.482/.652, plays third base well, and has 10 stolen bases vs. 3 CS at AA. Andrew Brown, 5 GS, 25 IP, 44 Ks (15.8 Ks/9) vs. 7 BBs, 2.52 ERA at AA. John Maine, 5 GS, 28 IP, 34 Ks vs. 7 BBs, 2.25 ERA at AA. Prince Fielder is hitting .322/.402/.655 with 8 HRs at AA, through yesterday. And the Southern League is a pitching league. Mighty impressive group so far. You really can make a case for all of those hitters. I'm a little more skeptical of the pitchers, but it's sometimes hard to compare. Robert
  15. RobertR
    That's a very reasonable distinction of "starter" vs. "pitcher". I'll happily accept that amendment. I think the Brewers will be able to cobble together a reasonable bullpen regardless, which is why I tend to regard bullpen arms that don't project as closers as "free talent" in most trades, but trying to find out if these pitchers have talent in a different role is always a reasonable course of action. I still stand by my main point that Kinney vs. Franklin vs. Obermueller vs. Davis is a false debate. The debate is whether any of these pitchers are good or will be any good, not who's the best of this bum lot. I suspected all along that the correct choice of starter for the next good Brewers team wasn't a) Kinney or b) Franklin but c) None of the above and nothing this season has really changed my opinion. Robert
  16. RobertR
    No, you only looked at won-loss by start, without figuring in run support. Baseball Prospectus's Support Neutral Won-Loss statistic actually looked at every start last year and concluded that Kinney and Franklin were equally bad last year, adjusting for run support, bullpen support, etc. Considering that Kinney is younger, it was hardly insupportable to give him one last chance as a starter before cutting ties. Franklin is a bad pitcher. Kinney is a bad pitcher. Obermueller is a bad pitcher. As long as the Brewers are trotting out bad pitchers like Franklin, Kinney and Obermueller on a consistent basis, they're going to struggle to win games and are going to have to "battle" constantly to stay in games. As long as the choice is presented as a simplistic Kinney vs. Franklin, it doesn't matter. The real goal is to find good pitchers not to decide which is the lesser of two evils. Robert
  17. RobertR
    Toby's nothing if not persistent, but I wonder if Prince is going to claim the top spot in the next Power 50. He's certainly gotten off to the best start with the bat of any of the top 3. Robert
  18. RobertR
    Franklin and Kinney both stink as starters. So does Obermueller for that matter. Even when they win, they only manage to go 5 or 6 innings and wear out the bullpen. Doug Davis is guilty of that too, but he's better than those other three, which isn't much of a compliment. And we'll see about Capuano after other teams have seen him for more than a start or two. The Brewers will be a good team when they're not trotting out the likes of Kinney, Obermueller and Franklin in 2 to 4 of their starting rotation slots. Until then, they'll be an inconsistent team that may win some games through " battlin' " TM, but ultimately is going to wear out the bullpen and have a tough time going on sustained positive runs. Robert
  19. RobertR
    So is Craig Wilson officially inducted into the "Brewers killer" club after that series? The Brewers were a bit unlucky in the Pirates series. That sort of offsets the Reds series where they were very lucky to win both those games while allowing 17 runs in the process. There's no series that will be easy for the Brewers, considering the pitching staff. This series was a good reminder of that. The good thing about this year is that there are few truly outstanding teams in the NL and a lot of parity. The Cubs, Astros, Marlins, Dodgers and Padres are the only teams that are really ahead of the pack, so far. Robert
  20. RobertR
    Speaking of Krynzel, his numbers are in a bit of a free fall, aren't they? Striking out once for every three ABs isn't a good way to build any consistency. Robert
  21. RobertR
    Is Austin Kearns with a broken hand better or worse than a healthy Trent Durrington? They'll probably play an almost equal amount. Robert
  22. RobertR
    The Reds have done pretty well with ex-A's so far. Both Lidle and Harang have pitched very well for them. It's early, but it does look like a good deal of Lidle's struggles last year were due to injury. Robert
  23. RobertR
    I was at the game, as part of fanfest, and although we were too high up to get a good bead on Saenz's "stuff", it was a very impressive outing. Especially the way he was in the strike zone all day. There have been a lot of pitchers over the last several years that could have learned a lot from Saenz's outing. As far as what to do now, I'd suggest that there's no need to rush Capuano back any earlier than necessary. Given that it's just one outing and noone's seen him, I appreciate that this might be more the exception than the rule, but I certaintly wouldn't be upset if Saenz got another start to make a case for himself. As long as he has success, why mess with a good thing? Robert
  24. RobertR
    That's the trouble with projecting. All we have is past track records and some insight into current conditions, health, mechanics, etc. That said, how long was it before Rusch had two good starts last year? Rusch was a definite outlier in just how bad he was. But, I do agree with the basic point that the rotation is a mess. Sheets has looked very good, but has back problems. Capuano has had his moments, but now has an injury to deal with. Davis has looked good and bad. Obermueller has one good outing, against a punchless Giants lineup, and two bad outings. And Kinney has been plain awful, not helped by Yost. Not exactly ideal conditions nor completely unexpected. Robert
  25. RobertR
    I'm including Davis in the "not awful" class by noting that his career ERA+ is right around league average. He has an established track record. Obviously, his upside is limited, but I think the awful start is going to be an outlier. Then again, I could be wrong, and the "not awful" class could be reserved to just Sheets. Robert
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