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RobertR

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Everything posted by RobertR

  1. RobertR
    I have no use for save percentage, as you can "blow" 2-3 saves in a game and still win. However, it does imply that the middle relief was not as average as I recall, for whatever reason. I looked over the actual numbers again and I want to correct myself. The rest of the bullpen was adequate in July, although Turnbow just collapsed. And Turnbow's collapse can't be understated. 5 save opportunities were turned into 1 save and 4 losses, 15 earned runs in 6.3 IP over 11 games. If Turnbow had converted saves at even a below average 80% rate, the Brewers record in July could have been 13 and 12 instead of 10 and 15, which could have been a pretty significant swing in how they approached the trade deadline. Now the September splits for the bullpen are just ugly, other than Cordero. Collapse is a fair way to describe the September bullpen, perhaps due to overwork over the rest of the season. I'll still suggest that the two most important events for the Brewers in 2006 were the injury to Sheets and the collapse of Turnbow as they created a chain of effects and forced the Brewers' hand. Especially since they both showed the ability to perform at an All Star level. Barnwell getting a whole 30 ABs doesn't even compare to the level of problems induced by Turnbow. Robert
  2. RobertR
    The bullpen had a 36% save percentage in July. By far the worst in the NL. Nobody else was close to being that bad. Flip it around to them only blowing 36% of their save opportunities, and it's still bad, but it was worth at least 3 games in the standings alone. Convert 10 of 11 like a team with an All Star caliber closer is supposed to do, and the Brewers pick up 6 wins in the standings in July alone. Collapse is the only word that I can think that's appropriate. No matter how you look at it, the Brewers ranked near the bottom in all bullpen categories by the end of the year, even with Cordero being very effective over the last 2 months. Robert
  3. RobertR
    That's a reasonable point. That said, Hall was clearly part of the Brewers' depth and was able to step into a bigger role upon Hardy's injury. Hardy's injury arguably improved the team. Really, I think the Brewers weathered most of their problems fine until the bullpen collapse. If the bullpen hadn't of collapsed, they probably could have held on to Lee and made a run at it, even with Bell at 3B. Replacing Lee and Koskie with Mench and Bell was more than the team could handle. And a large part of that stemmed from the bullpen taking the team out of the race. I would have loved to have seen what the team could have done in August and September with Lee, an effective Turnbow, Sheets, and Villanueva. Edit: I'm much more positive above adding Suppan than I am about worrying about middle infielder depth. Starting pitching is valuable and we all saw how much the Brewers struggled with the injuries to Sheets and Ohka last season. There's no such thing as too much starting pitching. Robert
  4. RobertR
    I'd put forth the argument that the Brewers have 1 backup infielder capable of an .800+ OPS. Ryan Braun. Of course, that has nothing to do with signing of veteran middle infielders, one of whom might be lucky to put up a .700 OPS. Edit: Let's look at the performance of some of the Brewers depth last year. Hall .899 OPS Cirillo .784 OPS Gross .857 OPS Hart .796 OPS Rivera .783 OPS Frankly, I doubt you'll find a single team which had 5 bench guys perform better than that group did cumulatively. Robert
  5. RobertR
    There's no team in baseball that won't have problems if three starting infielders get hurt. At least not if the three players are good players. Heck, the Brewers were lucky that they had Hall on their bench to plug in last year. It's nice to have an All Star caliber player on the bench. And, it's safe to say, Graffanino and Counsell aren't All Star caliber players. Braun is the key to the Brewers depth, not Graffanino, Counsell or Cirillo. Heck, if three players go down again, the Brewers are likely to have to consider Gwynn or Drew Anderson or some AAA middle infielder after Braun and Rottino. Not to mention, the middle infielders had nothing to do with the bullpen collapsing in July and perhaps necessitating that the Brewers pickup a relief pitcher in Cordero instead of a player that could have a longer term impact. Edit: Really, how many teams could survive the loss of three starting infielders that were expected to be good (Hardy, Weeks, and Koskie), two starting pitchers (Sheets and Ohka) one of whom is an Ace, and have their closer implode? Frankly, it's a testament to how well put together the team was that they still treaded water and didn't lose close to 100 games like old Brewer teams would have. Robert
  6. RobertR
    I think it's obvious they were talking about the current season of House and comics artists. Seriously, it's obvious that the Brewers are making a big push for Suppan and trying to sell him on the team. Money, the team's chances of contending, and the quality of life in Milwaukee were probably all subjects of the meeting. They probably had a nice lunch as well. Robert
  7. RobertR
    I tend to agree that the ability to "pitch" might be what Brewers scouting is overlooking. Call it a hunch, and I have no statistics to back it up, but it certainly seems to me that the guys who struggled with command and throwing strikes seemed to burn out quickly without even reaching MLB or just made token appearances. The logic seems to me to be 1) pitchers with poor control get into trouble through walks and mistakes, 2) young pitchers tend to compensate in tough situations by trying to throw harder, 3) trying to throw harder often leads to messed up mechanics with a lot of stress, and 4) messed up mechanics and high stress deliveries lead to injuries. That's my theory. It probably doesn't completely explain Jeff D'Amico (who could throw strikes), but then he had a better career than 90+% of Brewer high school drafted pitchers. It seems to fit in the cases of Gold, Neugebauer, Jones, and Rogers though, to name a few notable examples. Awful mechanics, in the case of Peterson, and overwork, in the case of Eldred, were certainly other factors. I wonder if WHIP in the minors perhaps correlates to injuries. It seems to me that high WHIP with a High K/9 rate pitchers would be at the most risk. Robert
  8. RobertR
    I'd agree that the Tokyo nightlife section of Ikiru runs a tad long. Nothing too over the top, but certainly it could be tighter. That said, it's an important Kurosawa film, it's one of the best representations of post-war Japan on film, it has an interesting structure, perhaps echoing Citizen Kane in the second half, and it has one heck of a great climatic shot with Shimura on the swing in the snow. And, it's partly on my recommendation as an introduction to Kurosawa because it's a reminder that Kurosawa didn't just direct samurai movies. With that said, High and Low might be a better introduction to contemporary Kurosawa, especially since it has a gripping crime story at the center of the movie. That said, I'd agree that you can't go wrong with Yojimbo as an introduction. Short, exciting, funny, well shot, and with a familiar story. It doesn't ask for a three hour investment of time and attention, but begins paying off right from the opening shots. It's perhaps not the most ambitious Kurosawa film, but it's still reasonably ambitious and pretty much flawless. The only reason Sanjuro wasn't on my initial list was because I think you should see Yojimbo first. And, nothing wrong with Throne of Blood as an introduction either. It's MacBeth transported to Japan. You know the story and can concentrate on the directoral decisions. Robert
  9. RobertR
    rluz, Dreams is uneven. And not Kurosawa's best from a storytelling point of view. However, it's a visual treat throughout with "The Blizzard" and "Crows" being standout chapters, the latter featuring Scorsese in a cameo. The chapters are based on dreams, increasingly getting more apocalyptic towards the end, and, as such, sometimes take leaps of logic and realism. It wouldn't be my first recommendation as an introduction to Kurosawa, but it was my wife's introduction to Kurosawa and she was swept away by the visuals. Ran, The Hidden Fortress, The Seven Samurai, Yojimbo, Ikiru, Rashomon, Throne of Blood, Stray Dog, and High and Low might be better choices though, at least from a storytelling point of view, although Ran is as impressive from a visual point of view as anything made in the 80s. Robert
  10. RobertR
    I'm still rooting for Carlos Villanueva, Yovanni Gallardo, and Will Inman, among others. I've never been a fan of Rogers or Jones. Yeah, they throw hard, but were very unpolished. I've never been convinced that their upside was that much higher than some of the players selected in the same general area of the draft with a lot less risk. There's no such thing as a safe pitching draft pick, but the Brewers certainly didn't avoid risk with those picks and I'm unconvinced that there was much extra reward for those two. Especially given how long it takes to develop HS pitchers in comparison to the Brewers window of opportunity. I really hope the Brewers reconsider their strategy in the future. At least a bit. And they really need to go over what they're looking for when drafting High Schoolers since it's not working very well. Robert
  11. RobertR
    What can I say. Comedy is subjective. Admittedly, part of what I respond to in Altman's film isn't necessarily the comedy bits, but Altman's skill as a filmmaker. People don't stand around like they are in a skit reciting their lines, but move around through their actions, captured by Altman's zoom lens, with foreground and background action, overlapping dialogue, etc. Even when the comedy bits sometimes fall flat, the movie is still interesting to me. In contrast.... Nacho Libre Pretty much the definition of a one joke film. Jack Black is a masked Mexican wrestler. A bad one. Hopefully you find that funny, because the movie never gets beyond that single joke. Thankfully, the movie is short so the joke is only beaten into the ground to a somewhat limited extent. I did actually like the cinematography though. Reminded me of Blue Velvet in some ways with some bold colors popping from the screen. The staging of the scenes though left a lot to be desired with a lot of standing around. Cars There's some terrific animation from Pixar in their newest film. On a technical level there's plenty to admire here. Too bad the story is so familiar. Children won't notice, but their parents will with every beat being very familiar. There's some good stuff in between the familiar stuff, tractor tipping and the film's climax, but there's definitely a lot of formula at play here. Much more on a par with A Bug's Life, another overly familiar story, than with Pixar's best. Robert
  12. RobertR
    I'm scratching my head over this. You spend $6 million on Counsell and then ship off Clark who's more useful for another backup SS? I suppose it's better than just waiving Clark, assuming you can option Barmes to AAA, but it doesn't make much sense to me. Are they planning on keeping Mench now? Edit: I could understand it more if it was part of a 3 way deal. Maybe including a team like the Royals. It doesn't seem to make much sense for the Brewers. Robert
  13. RobertR
    They have Bonds, Winn, and Roberts. I don't think the Giants are interested anymore. Besides, Jenkins is too young for the Giants. Robert
  14. RobertR
    Whew. The Brewers need to weed out their own outfielders before they start bringing in injured guys that aren't a bit better than what they already have, just different. Other than Kenny Lofton, I haven't been much interested in any outfielder rumored to be associated with the Brewers. I seriously think a Braun/Hall/Hart outfield might make more sense than some of these proposals. Robert
  15. RobertR
    Let's just say that we were to sign Lofton to a 1 year deal. Then we would most likely be having this same conversation next year, will Gwynn be ready after one more year at AAA or after a year on the bench with the big club? Is Krynzel out of the picture now? Just throwing these questions out there, because I think the Brewers are a ways away from solving their CF issue. Yeah, the Brewers may be having the same conversation if they go the Lofton route, but they'd also have money freed up with the Jenkins, Wise, Clark, Davis, Koskie, Miller, and Lofton contracts expiring. And I can't imagine next year being worse as far as free agents go. "Who do we sign or trade for?" is a much better question, to me, than "How many more years are we stuck with Roberts?" Robert
  16. RobertR
    Realistically, I'd think Zach Jackson or Dana Eveland would get first crack at filling in. I'm more optimistic than September on Gallardo, but I'd agree that he's probably not an option for the first half of the year. The more I think about Lopez, the less I like the deal. I'm not against bringing in a guy with some upside, but he's not going to be cheap and there are no guarantees of production. I see a lot of downside to bringing him in and at a salary where production is expected. I understand people being frustrated with Davis last year, but Davis was leaps and bounds better than Lopez. Robert
  17. RobertR
    Anybody else think that Clark's great catch of 2 seasons ago is perhaps coloring Colorado's perception of Clark? Colorado is a young team with a gaping hole in CF but some upside for 2007. It certainly seems like a reasonable short term fit, although I wouldn't expect much in return. Robert
  18. RobertR
    I think the whole idea of trading Roberts is based on the premise, what if Gwynn emerges as a viable starter for 2008? I don't think the notion that Gwynn + player received in a trade + any money saved > Roberts is that impossible a concept. I'd agree that Gwynn's upside is most likely Dave Roberts and realistically he's most likely a backup CFer. I'm just saying that if Gwynn emerges (or Weeks needs to be moved) that Dave Roberts isn't going to stand in the way, nor is he some immovable object who the Brewers are stuck with. Heck, the Brewers were able to trade Marquis Grissom not too long ago and I doubt Roberts will play as poorly as Grissom did his last year as a Brewer. Robert
  19. RobertR
    I suspect that Roberts can likely be traded, assuming he even signs, before his contract ends. There's aways a team looking for a "proven leadoff hitter" in the offseason or at the deadline. Robert
  20. RobertR
    I'm kind of lukewarm towards Roberts. He's a solid player, but I'd much rather add a power hitter. Honestly, part of me would rather have the Brewers do something radical, like sign Ray Durham and move Weeks to CF, than go the safe but underwhelming route of a guy like Roberts. Robert
  21. RobertR
    TGJ isnt going to spend 3 or 4 years at AAA...he will either be moved to a team that wants him, or moved into a bench role...he's a college player with 3 years of Minor leagues under his belt...the brewers will do something with him.. I'd agree that the Brewers aren't going to let him spend 3 or 4 years in AAA. But, I don't think the Brewers, or anybody else, would particularly have a problem with him spending 2 years. He has moved relatively quickly up the chain and he really just needs to develop some power. It's not hard to imagine that Gwynn might be able to do that with another year of maturing and 2 offseasons of weight training. Robert
  22. RobertR
    I think the Cubs are going to end up resigning Pierre. Probably for a lot more than any of us think he's worth. Certainly, I don't see the Cubs turning over the position to Pie yet. And it's pretty clear that the Cubs view leadoff as a position instead of a role, so I don't see them going cheap there. I'd love it if the Cubs signed Lee and let Ramirez get away. And what would they do with Murton if they signed Lee and with Jones still under a sizable contract? Robert
  23. RobertR
    I tend to lean towards WARP due to position value. Vernon Wells Year WARP 2003 7.7 2004 4.4 2005 4.9 2006 6.2 Ave: 5.8 Carl Crawford Year WARP 2003 4.0 2004 6.1 2005 5.6 2006 4.6 Ave: 5.1 I'd like to have either as there's not that big a difference between the two. I really like Wells' value in CF, which is the edge to me, while there's a lot to like about Crawford's consistency, age, and contract. The only real concern that I have with Crawford is how does he match up against the elite hitters in LF, and I think WARP shows that it's something of an issue for him. Robert
  24. RobertR
    Yeah, don't get me wrong, I'd be pretty darn happy if the Brewers were to somehow land Crawford. Young, very good, and affordable are certainly attractive qualities. I'm just saying that you're probably looking at another 2 or 3 years of steady improvement until he's a legitimate star left-fielder instead of a fantasy all star. There are platoons involving Gross or Jenkins that might be every bit as valuable as Crawford in 2007, albeit not as exciting. 2008 and beyond is likely a very different story though. Robert
  25. RobertR
    While I like Crawford, the risk with him is that he's perceived as a superstar for his fantasy numbers, rather than for what he actually does to win baseball games and he's going to cost that much more. And, really, I think there's a lot higher upside in Wells. If Wells does what he did last year, the Brewers likely make the playoffs. It's a lot more dicey if Crawford just repeats what he did last year. Carl Crawford's career high OPS is all of 0.002 OPS points higher than Vernon Wells' average OPS. Now, granted, Crawford steals a lot of bases at a very good percentage rate, but I don't think it's really debatable that the upside for 2007 is significantly higher in the case of Wells, especially when you factor in defense and position. Long term, I'd rather commit to a centerfielder as well. That said, I'd be happy with either. Robert
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