MNBrew

I think the bolded part is the key -- little things he used to do that he needs to get back to doing like he used to do them, not how he's recently done them. It doesn't take much divergence from prior good techniques/habits for the change to be detrimental to the results.

This is the 2nd winter of protracted Realmuto trade speculations & reports. I can't wait for him to get traded just so it's finally over, no matter who the other team is -- although I really hope it's not the Reds for obvious reasons.

Isn't it 3 days for Twinsfest TwinsFest has been 3 days for at least the past 15 years. I've made most of those -- not because I love the Twins (who will never rival the Brewers in my world), but because I can actually get there without driving 350 miles.

I'm not sure this has a great chance of happening, either, but it's not my money and Greinke's still one heck of a pitcher.

Are you hoping or predicting? Re: the bolded above, Clancy, while I admire your zeal, as my wife says to a couple of our kids, I think you're just plain stuck on a couple things that aren't going to happen (though it's at least nice to see Braun at the very bottom of your 3B list this time...). Aguilar not screwing up in his 14.1 career Brewers innings (and his 2 career Cleveland innings) consisting of 4 total chances at 3B isn't a peek into "what might be," only some sheer good fortune at avoiding the total disaster that could've been. I do think he's more athletic than many give him credit for, but I believe firmly that suggesting he's an everyday 3B is just plain folly -- well, that may be too strong, and I get that it may be fun to consider, but it's just not at all realistic without a slew of injuries, and even then I'd think they'd find other options to plug an everyday hole. Stearns and Counsell have said repeatedly that Hiura's not starting the season in MIL, which would negate any likelihood of your #1 2B option happening, either. So many here would love to see it happen, and there's no guarantee it won't happen this year, but when the Boss Man says it's not happening, is asked again and says it has a "0% chance of happening," it's just not happening.

It's not a ridiculous notion (give up Thames & gain Starlin Castro) on some level, but the way they ended the MIL haul part of it was saying that essentially we'd be paying $5M to acquire Castro. His 2018 fWAR makes that seem reasonable, but it's not just paying him $5M but also still, net, doing so on top of paying the $6M that was due Thames. Granted, the guy's goal was to fix the Tigers' situation, and overall there's a good bit of sense to this scheme he's put together. But I'm not sure paying Starling Castro $11M instead of Thames $6M is exactly ideal or a desirable outcome for the Brewers' FO.

They may be okay with it, but I'm sure their pursuit of several other FA 2Bs is a clear indication they felt they could do much better, too, with the key being desired target(s) needing to be okay with $$ & term that fit the Brewers' liking, which obviously hasn't happened yet.

(I didn't see your reply just above until after I finished typing this, which corroborates your point...) I sat through a Brewers game in Pittsburgh in 2017 (the one where Vogt got crashed into at the plate). Guys right in front of me were constantly (and very annoying) on Braun every time he was up. What were they yelling (besides just profane names)? "STEROIDS." They were acting pretty idiotic & self-righteous, to be honest, but for the sake of this discussion, that's not the point. The point is, I'd guess this is pretty representative of many fans in many cities who boo/heckle/etc. Braun: They very possibly... - paid attention to the headlines in only a cursory way; - don't know or remember that steroids were never the actual issue; - don't care so much what he did but that they feel entitled to vilify him for it; - don't pay enough attention to know or care that he's "done his time" with the biggest suspension at the time for PEDs, or everything he's done positively both in atonement and otherwise since then, only feeling that the headlines for which he rightly earned horrible repute give them endless license to heckle/swear/etc. relentlessly.

^^This, at least per the non-forgiving folks re: Braun (those who still cite him first and foremost as a cheater, for which he's now served his punishment and ever since which he's said & (more importantly) done the right things)... On a VERY related note, it seems curious that we aren't really seeing/hearing any of the outrage about Grandal (the signing thread I don't think ones cites that "he's a cheat"), but he was also a Biogenesis customer, part of that scandal, and suspended 50 games by MLB. The only thing -- and of course it was anything but small -- he didn't do that Braun did was publicly throw someone under the bus while fallibly trying to deny guilt. I LOVE Machado's talent and production. I don't care for what I saw & have heard of his character. I'd welcome the addition of his talent to our roster if it were to actually happen, but I'm not thrilled about him as a person. Thankfully -- I think -- it would seem the odds are really slim that he'd actually sign with MIL, which in the end probably renders all this speculation and the accompanying character vs. production dilemma moot.

Not rambling at all. I know the QO's part of the picture of baseball's future finances (and thus a potential angle within that thread), but I figured the QO is also a unique entity in & of itself. Because it means a FA's new team surrenders a pick, which many teams have become less willing to do, the goal of compensating teams for losing a quality FA had consequences that ended up backfiring for many of the MLBPA's membership.

Right. I get all that. But if that's true, which I believe, then players and the media have no grounds to claim FA offers below the QO figure are an indicator that the market or system is corrupt, too owner-friendly, or outright broken.

For as relatively little as he costs, the last thing Stearns should do is trade Pina. He won't net anything near a worthwhile return, and one Grandal injury leaves you with 39-year-old Kratz and our AAA guy in Nottingham as the major-league catching duo. Stearns has routinely shown he wants as much depth at good value as he can get. Trading Pina now would go completely counter to that heretofore very team-benefitting approach. No doubt Pina's first half at the plate was definitely bad. Along with Arcia and the revolving 2B flavor of the day, the lineup (esp. in the first half) had several painful black holes below the #5 hitter. Pina was hitting below .200 in the first half and possibly when he came off the DL in July or whenever that was. Then... To have his BA end up at .252 -- nearly a 60-point jump -- means overall he hit very well in the 2nd half (.295) -- he wasn't stellar overall for the year, but in spite of a not-good walk rate and unspectacular slugging, Pina's 2nd-half OPS was .756 which isn't to be scoffed at. His biggest flaw over the year was his heinous failure w/ RISP (11-for-72 = .153/.217/.250) -- especially the fact that he was almost a guaranteed automatic out with the bases loaded (2-for-9 = .222/.182/.222 -- OUCH!). Of course most of the Brewers biggest power threats weren't great w/ RISP, especially in the 2nd half, so Pina had plenty of company on the naughty/inept list. In summary, Pina's flaws are well-known, but he's still a decent catcher with several positives, not the least of which is that he's fairly cheap and has a few years of team control left. The likely drop-off from Pina to Kratz for only $400k in savings isn't worth the potential risks, esp. considering Grandal's very possibly playing elsewhere in 2020.

Is the qualifying offer a legit determinant of a player's actual market value? Given how the market has behaved the past two winters, I don't think it's anything close to a "universal truth" of the FA market value. I wonder about this especially because of some of the comments out there after we signed Grandal that this move adds lots more fuel to the fire of MLB heading toward an eventual labor stoppage. Is Grandal valuable? Apparently very much so in many people's eyes. He was clearly the best FA catcher on the market this winter. He's also flawed and most of the catching market features mostly players who are flawed, weak overall, or both. Just because LA QO'ed Grandal and he turned it down doesn't necessarily mean the market for him was going to come in above that figure -- though obviously he thought it would (a la Moustakas a year ago). Just like all the media- and agent-driven speculation that Machado or Harper may sign baseball's first $400M contract or have MLB's first $40M player salary (ridiculous!), the QO may be seen as a starting point but it's not necessarily indicative of what the actual market is. That's really determined by what any team -- or just one team -- is willing to pay an available player. And it's been quite obvious last year & this that many teams just weren't going to potentially overpay significantly in salary AND give up a high draft choice. As much as I think players have been schooled by their agents to turn down QO's for the promise of a much better potential payday on the FA market, it sure seems teams have largely discarded the QO and put greater stock in other determinants of a player's worth on the open market. As a secondary point . . . I don't know who Eno Saaris is, but last he kept insisting in a Twitter thread (linked from a BF.net discussion & started by his assertion that Grandal's signing was another sign of a pending labor apocalypse) that Russell Martin's 5-yr. Toronto contract was a viable comp to Grandal. I see his logic in terms of Martin's age and how his skills were viewed on the FA market, but to me he ignores the obvious and thus his logic is highly flawed: Plain & simple, Martin's market was 4-5 years ago. The winter FA market, not to mention the cumulative analytics-based approaches of front offices across most of MLB, has changed drastically in that time. In Martin's FA winter, lots of guys were still getting long-term deals and many of those guys really didn't live up to the value their contracts in the latter years (e.g., see: Russell Martin v.2018). Most GMs nowadays shy away from those except for the rarest of players either ability-wise or for whom their evaluations strongly endorse that a several-year, big-ish deal is a wise move (see: Stearns' reasons why he felt the length & dollars given to Lorenzo Cain were a safe & strong decision). Really, comparing Martin's 2015 FA deal and Grandal's deal now is apples & oranges. So, BF.net populace, what are your thoughts on the merits of the QO and its accuracy as an indicator of a player's worth? Ready. Go.

Re: all the wishful thinking about Hiura & Dubon & the SuperTwo deadline.... I'd love to see Hiura and/or Dubon be ready for the majors in late May, but I won't count on either of those guys for a single minute -- for this season at all, let alone by late May -- for a minute until a promotion actually is earned & happens. When we're aiming hard & realistically for a good playoff run & the World Series, I don't think you construct your roster assuming a June 1 call-up gains a stranglehold on a starting position for the rest of the season. If it happens, then you've got a fantastic situation and other assets who can be moved. While Stearns might be comfortable enough w/ the 2B options on hand, I don't think he's out there working the FA 2B market so much if he didn't want to upgrade the position. At this point I think the most appealing options have all signed elsewhere. I'd be all over Marwin Gonzalez over Hernan Perez, but I don't think Gonzalez is looking to sign for an eventual backup/super utility role, let alone the fact that he's a Boras client and that likely puts his asking price in the upper reaches. Josh Harrison or the very unglamorous Neil Walker (who I think could be a smart signing) are guys who I think might make realistic targets. I'm not as crazy about Asdrubal Cabrera but I think he's in the ballpark, too.

It wouldn't surprise me if they end up signing both an experienced IF and another P with a legit shot at making the team. Might be nobodies. Might be something better. I'd be surprised if it's someone on either count who'd end up in the starting lineup or the rotation (though I'd love to be proven wrong). Right now it's just too hard to tell and there are still 2.5 months before Opening Day, and that's the real drop-dead deadline, so to speak.

Does anyone remember Sportsvue, the mid-'80s cable network started mainly to air Brewers & Bucks games? I worked hard to convince my parents to pay the extra each month for it (and they did). It was a great thing but too far ahead of its time. Kinda like the local/regional Fox Sports networks but without anything near good enough financial backing of a major media conglomerate.

*No pressure* doesn't exist when you're on a WS caliber team and this team is built to for that 2019-2021. Every player is different intellectually, emotionally, psychologically, etc. You don't treat them all in the same manner. Hiura is an intelligent and poised individual with a very professional approach. No stage is too big for him. And Hiura being called up won't have anything to do with his slash line. It'll be how good are his PAs - how well and consistent is his contact - how is he performing in the field. I worded that poorly and already understand well what you felt compelled to explain. Restating: I'd rather see the Brewers bring in someone else respectable/proven, leave Perez & Spangenberg (probably) as the two reserve IFs, and NOT force-feed Hiura to the bigs in May if he's not ready yet (whatever the organization deems "not ready yet" means) just because that presumably would be past the Super-Two cutoff and have it come down to "Help us, Keston Hiura. You're our only hope." In other words, hopefully Hiura will be up when he's ready -- and hopefully raking big-time and therefore for good -- and not just because the Super-Two deadline has likely past. If he's ready by late May, then great. If not, I wouldn't want to see the Brewers bring him up because everyone else stunk and they felt he was the only remaining option, Hiura's developmental needs notwithstanding. Hiura's definitely the Brewers' best hitting prospect since Braun came up. But it's no given that once he's up, he'll never go back down (well, hopefully he's up for good, but no guarantees). His performance would dictate if he stays in MIL.

What if Hiura struggles to adjust to MLB hitting? What if he doesn't hit well enough in AAA in April/May to justify a call-up? We're still pinning a LOT of hopes on a rookie that may not be ready to be thrust into the middle of a playoff race. Ya I just don’t agree. It always made the most sense to try to spend on upgrading catcher because there isn’t a highly regarded prospect or young player at the position, but due to positional scarcity second base looked like the easier position to upgrade because of all the free agent options. Now that they were able to upgrade at catcher we can reevaluate our thinking on second base. The brewers have followed a similar plan for Hader and Burnes in recent years (Not exactly apples to apples comparison, but you get the idea of how they’ve treated top prospects in recent seasons). The brewers don’t even need Hiura to come up and be even a league average hitter. They can probably live with a ~80 wrc+ from him. The brewers may still sign someone, but it’s probably someone with a history of positional versatility. I would bet if they do sign someone it’s gling to be for less than $5mm for one year since they spent big on a catcher. If Hiura is a potentially elite hitter, you do what's best for his long-term development with NO pressure to perform at the MLB level. You don't throw him into a pennant race or prolonged MLB stint if it stands to be detrimental. In other words, you don't count on him for 2019 at all. If he forces himself into the picture, then that's a great position for the Brewers to be in.

The Mets are hoarding second basemen. Last year's starter (Jeff McNeil) was bumped off the position by Robinson Cano. By adding Lowrie they seem to have 3 starting 2B. Weird!

Well, now that Lowrie's signed with the Mets -- a very curious move given that they already bumped their 2B starter (McNeil) when they traded for Robinson Cano -- holding out for Lowrie means waiting to see what happens in the winter of 2020-21.

Even more middle relievers than last year, and more guys with options. They rarely had 13, and generally carried 11 in the playoffs. Granted, that's less games per week, but there's also no option of using options in the playoffs. They have even come out and said they're going to keep blurring the lines between starters and relievers even more than before. Could easily see guys like Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Davies, and/or Guerra getting optioned a few times after a long outing, not to mention the obvious shuttle candidates like Williams and Houser. With so many options, you can effectively have an 18-man staff even if only 11-12 are on the 25 man roster at any given time. Roster approach in the playoffs is the exception, not their main MO. Fewer guys pitching longer = the need for more arms, not fewer. Guys optioned to the minors need to be down 10 days before recalled except in cases of injury. Guerra is out of options. They used his rare 4th option last year.

When they shuttled, it was between keeping 12-13 pitchers & 12-13 position players. If anything, they still favored a 13th pitcher more of the time than not. So I don't get where the idea comes from that they're more likely to have only 11 pitchers than 13.

Prophet! Powerball numbers?

Especially so if Arcia's September/postseason approach sticks and continues to improve.

Or Grandal just grossly overestimated or just plain hasn't paid attention to the direction the market's been going the past couple winters. Just because players feel they're worth megadollars & term doesn't mean owners are obligated to pay it.