GagneCY03

CJ, thanks for posting the 2007 Top 30. Question: How does Vitters compare to Billy Butler?

Thanks for posting those lists, CJ. I'm fascinated by how and why players' draft stock fluctuates. There are factors outside of actual playing that affect stock, like injury or signability, but it's fun to try to pick which ones will rise, fall and stay the same.

Awesome, CJ. Here comes the Top 10: #1 David Price, lhp, Vanderbilt #2 Matt Wieters, c, Georgia Tech #3 Andrew Brackman, rhp, North Carolina State #4 Matt Harvey, rhp, Fitch HS, Groton, Conn. #5 Justin Jackson, ss, Roberson HS, Asheville, N.C. #6 Michael Burgess, of, Hillsborough HS, Tampa #7 Julio Borbon, of, Tennessee #8 Joe Savery, lhp, Rice #9 Daniel Moskos, lhp, Clemson #10 Josh Vitters, 3b, Cypress (Calif.) HS Obviously I was shocked to see Harvey so high. Nice to see Vitters getting some love. And Burgess should be there for the Brew Crew.

Is it alright if I post BA's Top 50 list for next year's draft?

I doubt he would. The only reason he took Hochevar was because he'd drafted him 3 years earlier. Besides, I dont honestly think JJ will last that long. And Brackman will probably go to the Cubs. Also, what do you think of Burgess? Any recent draft prospects you'd compare him to?

So if Jackson falls to #22 because of bonus demands, would Logan White attempt to sign another Boras client?

Varitek seems perfect for Wieters. I didnt know Tek pitched in college. I havent seen him play, so I'm looking forward to catching some GT games next season.

Thanks for the response, CJ. I'm thinking Jackson, Vitters and Robles will be off the board by the time the Dodgers' pick rolls around. So Harvey will have to do. One thing I read about him is his changeup is pretty advanced for a HS senior. He struck out Freddie Freeman looking with it in the AFLAC game. And while he's raw, you cant help but project lots of good things for a kid his size with a present plus fastball. On Wieters, do you have any concerns about his ability to stay behind the plate? And how would he compare to Joe Mauer?

Nice writeup, CJ. I was a little surprised to see you list Vitters #1 in the prep ranks and Wieters over Price and Brackman. Although, Vitters impressed me in the AFLAC game. Now, the barrage of questions! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif Do you see Vitters in a corner OF spot as a pro? Do you see Justin Jackson hitting for power as a pro? I'm really high on Matt Harvey and Tanner Robles. Think either of them will be there at #22? Thanks in advance.

I wasnt suggesting that they'd trade for a player to offer him arbitration. I was suggesting that they'd trade for him to have the first shot at re-signing him.

That wasnt my point. Small market teams would try to trade a player who will be a FA at the end of the year if they cant get compensated for him. But large market teams who would want to sign him would feel less compelled to give up significant value since they wouldnt lose anything in the way of draft picks if they wait till he hits the market. Hope that clears things up.

Of course, and my point was teams would feel even less compelled to trade for the guy knowing they could sign him in the offseason without losing a draft pick. It all relates back to the large market teams having it easier than the small market teams. CJ, I do like your idea. The NFL system seems to do very well and be very fair. It would greatly help small market teams that lose big named FA's but cant sign similar players to replace them. Instead of teams losing picks, they only gain picks. I dont see how everyone wouldnt be happy with that. Email Selig immediately! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Now you got me thinking about this. The formula could go as follows: If a team acquires a player of equal or greater value, no compensation is awarded. If a team loses a Type A free agent and acquires a Type B free agent, a third round compensatory pick is awarded. If a team loses a Type A free agent and acquires a Type C free agent, a second round compensatory pick is awarded. If a team loses a Type A free agent and no Type A, B or C free agents are acquired, a first round compensatory pick is awarded. If a team loses a Type B free agent and acquires a Type C free agent, a third round compensatory pick is awarded. If a team loses a Type B free agent and no Type A, B or C free agents are acquired, a second round compensatory pick is awarded. If a team loses a Type C free agent and no Type A, B or C free agents are acquired, a third round compensatory pick is awarded. What do you think?

I should clarify. The rich get richer remark was related to the players, not the large market teams. My belief is the player's association is behind this move, insisting that the compensation lowers players' value to prospective teams, which may be true. But it also would keep small market teams from receiving any real type of compensation from losing valuable free agents. Trade offers would be minimal, as other teams would know that they'd have to give up nothing, not even a draft pick, to sign the guy through FA. However, it also benefits large market teams more than small market teams, since Type A free agents command salaries in excess of what most small market teams can afford. If a Type A free agent is offered arbitration, there's probably no chance it will be accepted. And large market teams (For the most part) could care less if they dont get compensated for losing a free agent, as they could just sign another one far easier than a small market team.

I'm not able to read pdf files myself. The source I found didnt seem overly reliable, but it was a source nonetheless. Was an online column, but I cant find the link. Hopefully it never comes to be. Would add another link in the "rich getting richer" chain.

Hey CJ. Long time no chat. What do you think of the speculation regarding doing away with free agent compensation? Think it'll go through? Or is it just more rumor than anything else?

I love you CJ!

Baseball Prospectus has a story up about the draft and what risks/rewards certain picks have returned over the periods of 1984-1991 and 1992-1999. A few notes: baseballprospectus.com/ar...cleid=5152

I dont even know who you are anymore... I think Conger would be a good fit for the Brew Crew. Just like I think Kershaw would be a good fit for the Blue Crew

Nice piece, Pat. Hope you guys get Conger. It's only 5 days away!!!

I've noticed that Drew Stubbs and Tim Lincecum are the whipping boys for this year's draft. Stubbs cant hit, Tim's too short. Both have great tools and should be solid major leaguers at least. I'm starting to question scouting reports, based simply on what appear to be preconceived opinions of the people who saw them.

BA.com is reporting that Hochevar, Beato and Morris are re-entering the draft. Like you said, it's difficult to scout the DFE guys since they're believed to sign. But I remember Morris being one of the top prep pitchers last year and looking over BA's draft coerage for '05, his breaking ball was considered the best among the prep class. I think he'd get a serious look from Logan White at 26 or 31. As for Beato, I hope he lasts till one of those picks but I doubt it. www.baseballamerica.com/t...61479.html

Has it passed already or is it this upcoming midnight? I read that the Mets didnt sign Beato but I want to make sure the publication isnt jumping the gun. I've read mixed reports about him. BA.com says his best breaking pitch is a slider and PGCC says it's a curve. You know anything about him, CJ?

I know he isnt eligible for this year's draft, but I was able to catch Wes Roemer's shutout against LBSU. His stuff doesnt blow you away, but he gets good movement on his pitches and has remarkable control. His arm action isnt pretty; reminds me of Jake Peavy. He should definitely be considered a first rounder next year.

Thanks for updating the Top 30, CJ. Hopefully you're not just teasing me by ranking C Train (Clayton Kershaw) 10th. I'm getting way more excited than I should be with the draft just a week away. Unfortunately it looks like Luke Hochevar will be re-entering the talent pool, but luckily the Dodgers have those 3 picks in the first 31 to work with. Any idea on when you'll submit your next mock draft? I really hope you guys get Hank Conger. The kid has awesome power.

The AFLAC game was kind of a turning point for Johnson, who was dominating during the summer months. He cooled off a lot and saw his stock drop as scouts started questioning his overall ability. He has a good amount of holes in his swing, especially above his hands and hasnt progressed defensively enough for scouts to believe he can stick in RF. He's got great tools but just hasnt put it all together for scouts to believe he's for real. If he doesnt go in the top 5 or so rounds, he could honor his committment to FSU.