colbyjack

You're not speculating, the Brewers were confirmed to be interested in House a year ago. Mass provided a few links last offseason that pointed out that it came down to the Brewers and Astros a year ago. After further review, here are just a couple of other names that stood out to me: Matt Riley, LHP: I think he missed all of last year, but he's a former highly regarded prospect with a power FB and hammer CB. He might be worth taking a flier on if he's expected to be healthy anytime soon. Stephen Smitherman, OF: Posted a .498 SLG in the Southern League last year. I believe he had a cup of coffee with the Reds a few years ago. Danny Borrell, LHP: Former top prospect in the Yankees organization, a hard-throwing lefty that had 70 K last year in 81.1 IP. Josh Phelps, 1B: Put up big numbers for the Blue Jays a few years ago. Hit .308/.370/.532 at AAA Toledo in the International League. Wes Wilkerson, RHP: Posted a 4.46 ERA and a 1.94 GO/FO ratio in the PCL. His power arm and heavy sinker drew some rave reviews in the AFL a few years ago, I believe from DHonks in particular.

I have to look at the llist more closely, but JR House stands out. Between two levels last year (AA & AAA) he hit .345/.392/.521 in 493 ABs. Both leagues were hitters friendly (Texas, PCL), but this is a guy that has proved to hit before, and also a minor league free agent target of the Brewers a year ago. I don't think he was ever much defensively as a catcher, and his shoulder has always been a problem, but who really cares, this guy can hit. He'll be 27 next month, and could be given every opportunity to win a big-league job out of spring training along with Rivera and Closser.

Help me out here Patrick, the guy did that well, was an All-American, etc...why did he last as long as he did in the draft? As always, I'm sure it was a collection of factors, but first and foremost I think it came down to his background and familiarity with the scouts. He didn't play during the summer of 2005 on the Cape (or anywhere else from what I can tell) as he was recovering from shoulder surgery. I'm not sure if he played anywhere during the summer of 2004, but again, he didn't play on the Cape, and therefore never was able to prove himself hitting with a wood bat against some of the better college pitchers in the nation. Basically no one really knew if Gillespie's success was a fluke as they didn't have any notes to support it. His shoulder surgery played a part in it, as his arm strength is his one tool that is below average which may limit him to left field. Left fielders, like first basemen, typically have to have obscene power in the early rounds to garner attention. Playing in the Pacific Northwest didn't help, however Oregon State was well-scouted given their pitching staff. Tyler Graham, not Gillespie, was expected to be the next-best Oregon State outfielder after Jacoby Ellsbury was taken in the first round in the '05 draft, so that may also have caused him to be a little overlooked. While his tools overall are good, no one tool stands out. His bat speed nor his foot speed are electric and he doesn't possess light-tower power. He's just good to very good across the board, but not necessarily great. He red-shirted his freshman year, and technically was a college senior academically. He could have been drafted after his sophomore year. We heard some reports of the Brewers having a pre-draft deal with Tony Butler for the 3rd round, but decided to go elsewhere when another player fell to their selection. Of course, Gilliespie was that player, so it would seem that not even the Brewers felt he would fall to the 3rd round. But even then, they obviously didn't consider him for their 2nd round pick, taking the incredibly athletic & toolsy Brent Brewer instead. Of course these scenarios happen every year, and Gillespie does have a long way to go, as it's not like I'm proclaiming him to be the next Albert Pujols or anything. But, so far, so good, and as noted, I like his success rate against some of the top arms from last year. I think his progression and initial placement next year will be one of the more interesting minor league stories to follow, and I'm starting to think he opens '07 at WV even if he may deserve to be promoted more aggressively. I just don't see him getting skipped up to AA, and we have already heard some inside comments that Ford, Brantley and Cain will make up the BC OF.

Ok, some of you may think I have too much time on my hands, other may claim that I have a Pickler-esque fettish, and others may claim that I'm just a dork. That's all fine by me, but I wanted to dig deeper and look at Cole Gillespie's success last spring against some of the top pitchers he faced as part of Oregon State's impressive CWS run. A few college stat guys out there are now looking at how the best college hitters fare against the best college pitchers, and I wanted to see how Gillespie, the Pac 10 player of the year and an All-American, faced under these parameters basically to see if his success was a fluke (did he feed off of inferior competition?). Oregon State final stats: .374/.493/.685 in 238 AB Helena final stats: .344/.464/.548 in 186 AB All of the opposing pitchers as listed below were high profile prospects for the '06 draft or are high profile prospects for the '07 draft. February 17, vs. LHP Paul Coleman/Pepperdine 2-2, 2B, RBI, R March 17, vs. RHP Ian Kennedy (21st overall pick)/USC 0-1, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 2 R April 7, vs. RHP Mark Melancon, Arizona 1-1, BB, 2 R, SB, 2 RBI April 8, vs. LHP Brad Mills, Arizona 1-1, 2B, HBP, BB, 2 R, 2 RBI April 13, vs. RHP Greg Reynolds (2nd overall pick)/Stanford 2-3, BB, R, CS April 21, vs. RHP Brandon Morrow (5th overall pick)/Cal 0-3, R May 5, vs. RHP Tim Lincecum (10th overall pick)/Washington 2-3, HR, BB, SB, 4 RBI, 1 R May 26, vs. RHP Hector Ambriz/UCLA 2-4, HR, 3B, 3 RBI, R May 28, vs. LHP David Huff/UCLA 1-3 June 10, vs. RHP Greg Reynolds/Stanford (Regionals) 2-3, BB, R June 17, vs. LHP Scott Maine/Miami (CWS) 1-3 June 20, vs. RHP Carlos Gutierrez/Miami (CWS) 0-1 June 20, vs. RHP Chris Perez/Miami (CWS) 0-1 June 22, vs. RHP Eddie Degerman/Rice (CWS) 0-1, BB, K (1st K vs. a notable NCAA pitcher) June 24, vs. LHP Andrew Miller (6th overall pick)/UNC (CWS) 1-2, HR, 2 RBI, HBP, K June 25, vs. RHP Robert Woodard/UNC (CWS) 0-1, BB, K June 26, vs. RHP Daniel Bard/UNC (CWS) 0-3, K, HBP Total .429/.583/.914 in 35 AB, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 9:4 BB:K, 2-1 SB, 4 HBP, 12 R, 14 RBI Yes, a small sample, but a pretty impressive small sample against some of the top pitchers in all of college baseball, most notably his performances against Greg Reynolds and Tim Lincecum. I especially wanted to point out these numbers after his success in the Pioneer League, in which some people have noted that we have to temper our expectations with college draftees enjoying a high level of success in that league given the past success of hitters such as Kenny Holmberg and Tony Festa. Neither Holmberg nor Festa have the tools Gillespie has, nor the individual collegiate accolades. Gillespie's plate discipline is particularly impressive, and it's important to note that his defense in left field drew rave reviews from farm director Reid Nichols and league managers, and he also played a little bit in CF and also spent a few games leading off with a fair amount of speed to boot. Discuss http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

While I agree that the start of this thread is post of the week worthy, the comments have reminded me of Kenny Lofton. I've been pining for Lofton the past several offseasons, knowing he would be a likely upgrade over Clark the past couple of years, and could play about 75% of the time in CF (making sure to give the old man off a day a week or so). With Lofton available, I will completely toss out any small desire I had to acquire Juan Pierre, as Lofton may be older, but he's more productive and will be a heck of a lot cheaper. He's bounced around for what, the past 7-8 seasons now, so let's put Milwaukee on his resume.

Braun with a 3-run bomb today his only hit in 5 ABs. Rottino adds his first AFL dinger to go along with a pair of hits and a pair of walks, and Moss keeps teasing us with another pair of hits (and a walk). Bray's outing not worth mentioning.

The WWBA World Championship is just around the corner, kicking off next Thursday in Jupiter, Florida. The event has been postponed the past two years due to hurricane activity, so hopefully they're due for some nice weather this year. Check out this link to view WWBA's (the tournament division of Perfect Game) scheduling and roster information for the event: www.worldwoodbat.com/Tour...spx?ID=222 The Midland Redskins, Ohio Warhawks, ABD Bulldogs and East Cobb Braves are particularly loaded with high profile talent this year. Also, check out BaseballWebTV where David Rawnsley has a few segments previewing some of the better collections of talent: www.baseballwebtv.com/ And best wishes to Blazer25, the manager for the Midwest Blazers, a team that always manages to open a few eyes at the tourney. Midwest Blazers

Be sure to check out the pinned thread at the top of this forum, as I have officially released the top 30 draft eligible prospects for 2007 and have re-named this forum 2007 June Draft.

Be sure to check out the pinned thread at the top of this forum, as I have officially released the top 30 draft eligible prospects for 2007 and have re-named this forum 2007 June Draft.

sbrylski06, I started off by saying IN THEORY these things should help a batter, but they don't, which I have recognized more than a few times already in this thread.

It's time to kick off Brewerfan.net's 2007 Draft Coverage. We're still building the default 2007 draft information, as the current draft information still defaults to 2006, but here is a link to review Brewerfan.net's top 30 draft-eligible prospects for 2007: Brewerfan.net Top 30 2007 Draft Prospects Once the '07 draft info is the default draft page, you will be able to access the draft order, past year's draft picks, the DFE candidates for next spring, a breakdown of the scouting dep't. and the usual lengthy list of player profiles. Until then, most of that information will be provided here within this thread. This thread will start providing the basics for next year's draft, providing the raw draft order and eventually updating the order as free agents are signed. We will remove the free agents name by name as they are signed or if they aren't offered arbitration (making them ineligible for draft-pick compensation). We will also provide the list of draft and follow candidates for next spring. The DFEs will have their own resource thread starting at the beginning of next year so people can follow all of the candidates in one easy place. Recent 2007 Discussion and Stories Story: '06 Recap, Quick '07 Preview Discussion: 2007 Draft Order Discussion: Top '06 summer talent for '07 draft Brewerfan.net College thread 2006 (several observations on '07 draft-eligibles) 2006 Draft Reference 2005 Draft Resource Thread 2005-2006 DFE Resource Thread Official Draft Pick Selection Thread Discussion, Rounds 1-5 Discussion, Rounds 6-10 Discussion, Rounds 11-15 Discussion, Rounds 16-20 Discussion, Rounds 21-30 Discussion, Rounds 31-40 Discussion, Rounds 41-50 2006 Raw Draft Order The raw order is established by taking the reverse order of the standings from the previous seasons. The order does not alternate between leagues anymore. Tie-breakers are awarded to the team that finished with the worse record the previous season. 1. D-Rays (.377) 2. Royals (.383) 3. Cubs (.407) 4. Pirates (.414) 5. Orioles (.432) 6. Nationals (.438) 7. Brewers (.463) 8. Rockies (.469) 9. D-Backs (.469) 10. Giants (.472) 11. Mariners (.481) 12. Marlins (.481) 13. Indians (.481) 14. Braves (.488) 15. Reds (.494) 16. Rangers (.494) 17. Astros (.506) 18. Cardinals (.516) 19. Phillies (.525) 20. Red Sox (.531) 21. Blue Jays (.537) 22. Dodgers (.543) 23. Padres (.543) 24. Angels (.549) 25. White Sox (.556) 26. A's (.574) 27. Tigers (.586) 28. Twins (.593) 29. Mets (.599) 30. Yankees (.599) 2005-06 DFE Candidates The Milwaukee Brewers retain the rights to the following players up until a week before next year's draft. Between the end of their collegiate season and the week before the draft is the window in which a player may sign. To learn more about the DFE process please visit this story: DFE Process 12. Chad Robinson (CC of Southern Nevada, NV) 17. Aaron Tullo, RHP (St. Petersburg College, FL) 19. Lee Haydel, OF (Delgado CC, LA) 20. Mehdi Djebbar, LHP (Seminole State College, OK) 27. T.J. Macy, RHP (Scottsdale CC, AZ) 28. Terrell Alliman, OF (CC of Southern Nevada, NV) 31. Robert Bryson, RHP (Seminole CC, FL) 32. Nicholas Tyson, RHP (Lake City CC, FL) 36. Clay Jones, C (Shelton State CC, AL) 38. Todd Fitzgerald, LHP (San Jose CC, CA) 42. Matt Peck, RHP (Cowley College, KS) 44. Bryan Crosby, 3B (Cleveland State CC, TN) 45. Matthew Thompson, SS (Eastern Arizona JC, AZ) 46. Aaron Johnson, C (Lethbridge CC, Alberta, Canada, playing for Prairie Baseball Academy) 47. Matthew Coburn, RHP (San Jacinto College, TX) 48. Brandon Owens, RHP (Truett McConnell JC, GA) 49. Nicholas Spears, SS (San Diego CC, CA) 50. Ricky Alvernaz, 3B (Cisco JC, TX)

Keep in mind that Vitters has played SS, following a line of talented Cypress HS SS that includes his older brother Christian (now with the A's) and Scott Moore (now a 3B with the Cubs). Butler played 3B in HS, and everyone knew he would be moved to either 1B or LF immediately upon entering pro ball. So, it's not really a fair comparison to call Vitters a not-so-athletic 3B in the mold of Butler. I agree with you on Vitters' swing. Not only his swing, but his approach is fun to watch. Here are some impressions I had on the Aflac All-Americans that stood out the most to me over at PG: www.perfectgame.org/crack...pressions/

don't understand. If the runner is affecting the strategies and gameplanning of the defense, it would show up in the statistics. Everything shows up in statistics, right? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I alluded to this in my comments above, as the defensive positioning and the propensity of fastballs in theory should give the batter a natural advantage with a speedy runner on base, but as russ and others have continually pointed out, it doesn't. It's pretty simple. With base-stealing threats on base, a pitcher is likely to throw more fastballs since fastballs reach the plate quicker (and straighter) and gives the catcher a better chance at throwing out the opposing baserunner. In addition, many teams like to call pitchouts with basestealing threats on, which of course gives the batter a free ball, another natural advantage. Shortstops and second basemen have to cheat closer to the second base bag since they have less time to get there with a faster baserunner, either in a steal attempt or a double play situation, meaning there are more open holes on the left and/or right side of the infield. Homer actually hit on it perfectly when he said this: I think the only guy I've ever heard of that like guys running while he was batting was Tony Gwynn because it opened up holes for him. The thing is, most guys can't hit the ball exactly where they want to. While Tony Gwynn could hit the ball wherever he wanted to, a lot of it had to do with not drastically changing his approach. How many batters are trying to do something other than what they would normally do with a runner in motion? If most batters were able to focus, not worry about the baserunner and wait for a good pitch to hit like they would in any other situation, they likely would fare better in such a situation (and again, in theory, they should) because they have a pretty good idea of what is coming (fastball) regardless of the count. Pitchers don't like spiking breaking balls in the dirt with runners like Pierre, Reyes or Crawford on the base.

I believe Jim Callis broke down David Price vs. Andrew Miller in a recent Ask BA column. If it wasn't Callis, it was someone over at BA. Price is ahead of Miller at a similar stage. He is a much more polished pitcher, one that knows the importance of changing his tempo and he commands his pitches much better and throws them all for strikes. Miller has had his bouts with wildness, while Price is just a more efficient hurler. He has the size, stuff and moxie that has made me compare him to a left-handed version of Mark Prior at similar stages of their careers. Prior actually started his college career at Vanderbilt. Miller's stuff at its best may be a tick better than Price, but Price can still reach the 95-97 range and pitches comfortably at 91-93 while mixing in a pretty good slider and solid changeup. Whether Wieters can play catcher or not is going to be a popular subject between now and next June. I've seen him play several times now, and I have seen nothing that would move him to another position. The main concern about him catching is his size, but as we already talked about on a different thread, Joe Mauer is 6'5" or so and there aren't any concerns about his ability behind the dish. Wieters, like Mauer, has that kind of uncanny athleticism for his big frame. And even if Wieters had to move to another position, yes, I do think he would be able to hit enough to justify such a switch and be a legitimate top 5 pick. He's a similar hitter and overall player to another GT catcher, Jason Varitek. If he had to move, I don't think 3B would be out of the question. And Wieters could be a 1st-rounder as a closer. Check out my breakdown of both Wieters and Price in this thread: p092.ezboard.com/fbrewers...=918.topic

You make good points in your follow-up post jas33jas, but your stance is a little different that how you started, in which you stated: I feel that their potential reward is far greater than whatever they would return in a trade. That made it sound like you wouldn't trade them for anything. You can argue Crawford's value vs. what we already have and I can jive with that. I may not agree with it, but the point has been made before, especially if Crawford continues to play LF as opposed to CF (although I think that point may be overblown somewhat as his productivity in LF may be balanced if you have a CF or a player at some other position that offers above-average production). No one is suggesting giving the young arms away. I personally think Carl Crawford would be well worth investigating making such a trade. He's 24 years old and his numbers have only been getting better since he broke in as a 20-year old. That is usually a very good sign of better things to come (look at Carlos Beltran's progression early in his career as a comparison...Crawford may not be on that level, but he's not far off).

I didn't even know the top 30 was up. It actually isn't, but you're apparently clever enough to have found it http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . I will make the official announcement of the top 30 in the next week or two when a few final programming details are worked out. Josh Vitters vs. Billy Butler I suppose they could compare favorably since they both offer polished bats at a similar stage in their careers. I see Vitters having a bat more similar to a Ryan Zimmerman, or possibly a Jeff Cirillo in his prime, groomed more for contact and doubles than over the fence power. Zimmerman has shown that his contact bat was good enough for 20 home run power, something Cirillo never sniffed, and something I think Vitters should approach some day should he continue to progress. I view Butler as more of a true slugger, more along the lines of a Pat Burrell. Like Burrell, Butler will never has a true defensive home, since he was drafted as a 3B and was quickly moved to LF and might end up at 1B. Vitters on the other hand should begin his career at 3B and for the time being I see no reason for him to be moved anywhere else. As I believe I mentioned in his profile, he could end up in LF, but wherever he ends up playing he should be twice the defender that Butler will ever be.

Thanks for the first-hand observations True CryM. Keep 'em coming if you're lucky enough to attend more AFL games.

When I say that, it's not so much about stolen bases as it is the ability to take an extra base, I like having more guys you can send home on a ball hit in the gap, etc. Another good point. This is also huge to me, as I'm not as overly concerned about a player stealing bases as I am about that player being able to progress effectively on the basepaths. Watching the playoffs, it's amazing to me how few runners are able to move from first to third on a single.

rluzinski, I undestand all of your points, I'm just pointing out a few others on the other side of the fence without resorting to saying "don't you watch the games, clearly a leadoff hitter puts pressure on the opposing defense." There are factors, strategies and gameplanning at play on the field when you have a player such as Juan Pierre on base, even if the statistics point to the batters not succeeding as well. While I understand your position, these are points that can't be overlooked or ignored. It's actually amazing how few players fit the mold of the prototypical leadoff hitter. While Rickey Henderson was the greatest of all time, Kenny Lofton in his prime was probably the last one that seemed to visibly make a difference each time he was on base because he was a threat in so many different ways. Of course hitting atop the Indians lineup during that era didn't hurt. Johnny Damon is up there, but he's not a lethal base-stealing threat. Jose Reyes seems poised to be the next great one, and Carl Crawford could be up there as well, which is what makes him so incredibly appealing. Oh yeah, and Craig Biggio, one of the most underrated hitters of all-time.

Other people have already touched on the important points. Pitching prospects are far from proven commodities. As much as I get excited when thinking about the potential of Gallardo, Inman and even Rogers, you really have to temper your expectations while also realizing that one's farm system should be used not only to develop big-league talent from within, but also to use that talent to use as tradable commodities to acquire proven & productive big-leaguers. Of Detroit's rotation (Verlander, Rogers, Robertson & Bonderman), pogo already noted that Verlander was the only arm procured purely from within. Rogers was a FA pickup while Robertson & Bonderman were acquired in trade (although it should be noted that they were both closer to prospect status than proven commodities when acquired). Zumaya was homegrown as well. I wanted to emphasize this point as others already have done because I have heard about this a lot lately. Everyone wants to emulate the most recent success story. After the '02 season, everyone wanted to find the next little, scrappy David Eckstein type of player since he enjoyed success with the Angels. After '03, people were saying similar things about the Marlins' rotation as they are saying about the Tigers rotation (and of that rotation Josh Beckett was the only 100% homegrown arm). After '04 everyone pointed to how you had to build your team like the OBP power Boston Red Sox, and then last year you had people wanting to build their team like the White Sox (who got inappropriately labeled as a small-ball team). The bottom line is talent. It doesn't really matter how you acquire your talent (the Cardinals can prove that, as their team is largely assembled from trade acquisitions and free agents), and if trading talented prospects such as Gallardo, Inman and Rogers makes the Brewers a more talented team, then I'm all for it. I'm not suggesting we give them away, but Carl Crawford, at 24 or 25 years old with statistical trends suggesting that he's only going to get better, seems like a perfect target for the Brewers, or any team looking to improve for years to come.

I'm pretty undecided on Pierre. I don't think he's as bad as many seem to think he is, and he's certainly better then at least a few of the options lobbied about to play CF for the Brewers next year, Anthony Gwynn Jr for example. But he is over paid for the skills he does have, and he most certainly has holes in his game. I guess I'd prefer if the team went after more complete players then try and overcompensate for some perceived team weakness. This is the best, most well-stated post in the thread. I want to make it clear that I'm not a huge fan of Pierre, but I do think he would fit the Brewers given some of the statements Doug Melvin has made this offseason, regardless of how serious you think he was when he stated those points. I also agree that despite the stats that point to how batters fare when base-stealers are on base, it does change the way opposing teams face hitters, such as defensive positioning or the propensity for more fastballs, which in theory should help the batter at the plate. The fact that it doesn't points to an intangible part of the game involving the psyche and the approach of the batter. Kevin Youkilis is a fat slow guy, and he hit leadoff, and scored more runs (100 to 87) than Juan Pierre. Because he gets on base (91 BB to 32). I'm not sure if that is the best comparison, since Youkilis hit atop one of the more prolific run-scoring teams in all of baseball while Pierre hit atop one of the worst run-scoring teams in baseball (and for the most part has hit atop lineups that are average at best given his time in Florida). I'm not trying to go out of my way to make excuses for Pierre, who does make too many outs and should score more runs than what he is perceived to do, but 13 more runs than Pierre given the significantly higher OBP in a significantly more high-powered offense says either something not right with Youkillis batting leadoff or Pierre actually does do something to maximize his time while he is on base. Was Youkilis erased by an abnormally high number of double plays or something? I'm not saying he doesn't fit hitting leadoff, as you can't argue with his OBP, but since the difference in walks was so great, why wasn't the difference in runs scored? I don't expect it to be relative, but again, 13 runs isn't that huge of a difference, and I would expect Pierre to come close to 100 runs had he hit atop the Red Sox' lineup. For comparison sake, Johnny Damon scored 117 runs in 2005 with a .366 OBP, although the Red Sox boasted the highest scoring offense in all of 2005. Back to Pierre, I just want to close by saying his career OBP is .350. Not great, but not absolutely horrendous either. As for leading off, while I agree a leadoff hitter doesn't leadoff every inning, hasn't it been proven that the leadoff hitter leads off more innings than any other batter in any other spot in the order? I still wouldn't sign Pierre for the money he likely will be looking for, but don't be surprised if Melvin does.

That's a pretty compelling argument for Greg Maddux. However, Maddux made $9M each of the last two years. Even if he does sign for less than that, how low is he willing to go to return first of all, and play for the Brewers? If it goes back to money, which it unfortunately almost always does, Davis at $4-5M for next season might make more sense financially and for the future, especially if Davis is able to bounce back to his '03-'05 form.

Actually the D-Rays have BJ Upton, who I think they still plan on using at SS for the time being. They also have a young SS moving up named Reid Brignac who was named the Cal League's MVP and one of their top prospects. He had a strong finish at AA, so he's not far away from reaching the big-leagues. If they're going to trade Crawford, I really think they are going to want proven, young pitching in return, which means they may not even bite on a deal if it included Yovani Gallardo as the centerpiece.

Thanks bthurley, I figured his record didn't help him, but I was just seeing if there was any local perspective. As for Gantner, with all due respect to the managers and coaches of the league, if he took a managerial job in the Northwoods League, I can almost guarantee you that he is nowhere near the running for a job at the big league level, much less the minors. Last year's manager of the Woodchucks, Darin Everson, went on to be the Marlins hitting instructor at high-A Jupiter, and most of the other managers are coaches at smaller D1 and even JC colleges. Again, there's nothing wrong with that, but they're all a long way's away from serving as a coach at the big-league level.

Hey bthurley, do you know what happened to Coach Barta?