colbyjack

Gagne, read a few pages above for some thoughts from a few people on Roemer. He'll definitely be an early pick next year. CalNiner, with Longoria, Hughes and Carpenter all projected to be drafted high, where does that leave LBSU for next year? I know they always have a fair amount of JC transfers (all 3 of the guys above transferred from other schools), but from following the team this year I'm not so sure I have that sense of confience for the next wave of players.

I'll probably post a mock draft at some point this week, possibly for my next column submission at PG.

We've heard that the Brewers are interested in Snider (not Snyder) before. Their interest in Rowell isn't surprising, although I doubt he's there when they pick. Add on their interest in Conger and it seems as though they are definitely intent on taking a prep slugger. I agree with your assessment X that the organization needs to add a lefty slugger to their organization, and this is actually a pretty good year to do so with several good ones projected to be available when the Brewers make their pick.

I updated the top 30 draft-eligible prospects on the default draft page along with the notes section, as we are a week away from the draft. Just click on "Draft" in the maroon sub-nav bar located at the top of each page.

College pitcher update for the week of 5/22/06 Ian Kennedy 6.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 8 K, 4 BB vs. Arizona Another ugly outing for Kennedy Brandon Morrow 3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R (4 ER), 1 K, 3 BB vs. Arizona State Morrow's shortest outing of the year, he hasn't been as sharp lately after starting 7-0 Brad Lincoln 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 BB vs. East Carolina Steady as they go for Lincoln all spring Andrew Miller 6 IP, 6 H, 7 R (5 ER), 4 K, 5 BB vs. NC State Miller gets knocked around in ACC tourney Max Scherzer 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 5 K, 0 BB vs. Oklahoma A very sharp outing for Scherzer, whose stock is back on the rise Greg Reynolds 9 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 9 K, 1 BB vs. UC Davis Another solid outing for Reynolds, who seems to be solidifying an early pick Tim Lincecum 9 IP, 8 H, 3 R (1 ER), 14 K, 2 BB vs. Washington State Nice to see fewer walks from Lincecum later this spring, although the overall totals are still way too high Joba Chamberlain 7 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 7 K, 1 BB vs. Texas Tech Not the prettiest of lines, but not awful either Jared Hughes 3.1 IP, 8 H, 7 R (6 ER), 1 K, 3 BB vs. Cal State Fullerton Unfortunately Hughes doesn't build on the success from his start the weekend before

Think Steve Sollmann for Mike Goetz. Short on tools, but he should put up decent numbers in rookie ball and low A ball. How he fares after that is definitely in question. Like Sollmann, I could see Goetz's big year propelling him to a 10-15 round selection.

Concern about stats, first how many errors are made where a throw in the dirt should or could have been picked on the other end? Speaking about all positions not just 3b. Second, how many plus plays were made where a hit was taken away, those should and I'm sure are reported within the organization. Don't get caught up in numbers, they can be deceiving. I will say one thing about the games I have seen, it depends on the scorekeeper, they vary quite a bit from team to team. I heard similar arguments from Angel Salome's coach last year, and Salome is still having the same problems defensively. Don't get too caught up in excuses. I would hope that if you asked Ryan Braun himself about his errors that he would tell you that he needs to improve significantly in that area. No blaming the scorekeeper, no talking about how many runs he has saved. And I'm not getting too bent out of shape about the errors, as I'm one of the guys that felt Braun should have been given a shot at SS to begin his pro career. I realize it's these types of things that players need to iron out in the minors, I just don't go out of my way to make an excuse about alarming numbers. If it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck, it usually a duck.

Also, Braun having himself a nice game so far (3-3, HR, 3RBI), the top half of WV continues to whale on the ball, and Parra's line looks pretty decent except for the runs. Braun also commits his 13th error of the season. That's an ugly, ugly total that can't just be tossed aside. I know youth is often used as the biggest excuse for the error totals at the big-league level, but as a big fan of defense my entire life, I'd love to see a young player in the Brewers system that is good offensively AND defensively. Anyway, since Parra's runs were brought up, none of the four runs he has allowed have been earned, which makes his line look even prettier. He faces a pretty good pitching prospect in the Twins' Anthony Swarzak, neither will factor into the decision as the Manatees just tied the game.

I just got home in time to lace up my shoes and was pretty bummed when I read this. When I got home it was raining, but you could see from the skyline in the West that it was going to clear up pretty quick. Now, it's sunny again. Oh well, time to fire up the grill and crack open a cold one...

Thanks for sharing the link Mass, some more interesting names thrown into the pile. Max Scherzer would be an incredible value pick at #16 based on talent (not based on what he will eventually signed for). Joba Chamberlain would please those hoping for a non-prep pitcher pick, as he's got good stuff and a terrible body, which means his results are legit http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . Too early for Kiker, as much as I like him, same goes for Brown. When I saw Morrow last summer he was predominantly throwing his fastball & splitter, but when he mixed in his slider you could tell it was a really nice pitch. He used his splitter more like a changeup at the time, a pitch I hear he has been using less and less this spring. Morrow is definitely a feel good story this spring. Can you imagine Stubbs & Maybin roaming Comerica some day? That would be a pretty impressive defensive outfield. That's like when the Mets had Beltran and Cameron last year.

I wasn't trying to call you out bjkrautk, so I apologize if my tone sounded as though I was. Maybe I'm confusing you for someone else, but I thought it was you who has brought up the fact that places like BA and others had Bailey ranked ahead of Rogers (and for the record, it really doesn't matter where places like BA, PG and yours truly have players ranked). And I understand your point. I was just pointing out that BA and a few other places reported that it wasn't just the Brewers that had Rogers rated ahead of Bailey leading up to the draft. We learned of this in a draft chat I believe, that noted the Brewers were scouting Mark Rogers very hard, and weren't the only team considering taking him ahead of Bailey. My point about Fielder had nothing to do with him being a 1B (the team at the time reportedly wanted a prep hitter, regardless of position, if Loewen, Gruler & Greinke weren't available), just that there were a lot of players ranked ahead of him, and Fielder actually wasn't even close to being ranked in the top 10 overall players for 2002 (I think he was in the 20s or 30s at the time). If Fielder would have struggled and/or failed as a prospect it would have been extremely easy for us to question the Brewers choice of Fielder since he wasn't rated by BA and others as a top 10 overall prospect. That is why I compared him to the Rogers/Bailey choice. Again, I agree they should learn from their choices. Not so much worrying about where Baseball America and others have players ranked, but trying to learn from what works for them and what doesn't.

My day has gotten way out of hand, and I have to list myself as a TBA for tonight's game. Since I live right by the park, if you don't see me by 7:40 or 7:45, feel free to find a replacement for RF. If I show up late, I will gladly serve as the 3B coach. Sorry guys, although it seems there are plenty of people to take my place if I am unable to make it.

Both guys look as though they could fall into the second round. LaPorta may actually slide to round 3 based on signability, but I doubt he falls any further than that. As for Johnson, I'm not sure. Prep guys like him that were once considered first-round picks often have visions of first-round money in their head. If he's not drafted that high, I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up at FSU. Otherwise, with his power, long swing or not there is no way based on talent that he should fall past round 2.

I've talked about Brett Anderson a ton around these parts. Visit my work from last summer covering the Aflac game to see how much I like him. p092.ezboard.com/fbrewers...=835.topic Kershaw's good, but there's no way he lasts until the 16th pick. I'd love to land a college slugger, like the Dbacks did with Quentin. Unfortunately there really isn't a good college slugger worthy of the pick, at least not a corner OF. Matt LaPorta and Mark Hamilton have a lot of power, but both are represented by Boras, and both are better off at 1B. Travis Snider is you man if you want a corner OF. He's a prep OF, but he's one of the best sluggers available.

More and more people are saying the Royals will indeed take Miller. I'll probably change my pick just before the draft, but for now I'm sticking to my guns. Don't blame me if the Tigers take Kershaw ahead of the Dodgers, I don't have any special powers. Lucky for you they reportedly really, really like Drew Stubbs, and I don't see anyone ahead of the Tigers taking Kershaw (or Stubbs).

I forgot to mention that the Brew Crew Review was kind enough to have me on their show again (show probably to be put on WI On Demand this weekend), but the focus of the show was on the draft. We conducted a mock draft, and here were my picks, minus the commentary: 1. Royals: Tim Lincecum 2. Rockies: Evan Longoria 3. D-Rays: Andrew Miller 4. Pirates: Brad Lincoln 5. Mariners: Luke Hochevar 6. Tigers: Clayton Kershaw 7. Dodgers: Jeremy Jeffress 8. Reds: Drew Stubbs 9. Orioles: Billy Rowell 10. Giants: Brandon Morrow 11. D-Backs: Greg Reynolds 12. Rangers: Kyle Drabek 13. Cubs: Travis Snider 14. Blue Jays: Blair Erickson 15. Nationals: Joba Chamberlain 16. Brewers: Hank Conger

My "curse" shot had more to do with them sucking so much, as I agree they have some decent success developing pitchers. However, my point is that if they were so good developing players, they would be a lot better than what they are. As for Eveland, he pretty much dominated every level he pitched at in the minors, and was amazingly consistent. I know I'm not the only one that didn't expect him to have so many growing pains making the adjustment to pro ball, although I do contend that I liked what I saw from him during several appearances a year ago (and he has had flashed during his three starts this year). Just because a player struggles when they're first called up doesn't necessarily mean they were rushed. As for your last point, hindsight is a very powerful tool, especially when it comes to the draft. It's amazing how many early draft picks never pan out, as no team is consistently successful with their first-round picks. Even the A's, Twins and Braves, three teams widely considered as three of the best drafting teams, have had their fair share of duds in recent years. I still contend that the draft is not a crap-shoot, largely because of the time and money invested into scouting (not to mention the fact that expectations regarding the draft are way too high in all sports, including football), but there certainly are a ton of wild-cards that make the end results astonishingly unpredictable.

That's a good call X. Mark Melancon does have a good enough repertoire to be used as a starter. He started the year as the closer, and was moved to the rotation briefly once he became the Wildcats all-time saves leader. Blair Erickson was also moved to the rotation, albeit briefly, and has a good enough repertoire (at least two very good pitches) to be at least tried as a starter to begin his professional career. Chris Perez on the other hand I don't like much. Every time I have seen him he has been wild, and his slider isn't consistently enough to allow him to succeed as a starter. He would be a major project in that role, and as a closer he's iffy if you ask me.

For the record, I throw left-handed.

colby, just wondering why you've changed your tune this year, and you're suddenly openly mentioning who you'd like to see taken. I thought in the past years you were very secretive. Those are my faves IF the team takes a pitcher, and I have a couple of prep guys I would take if they were there (Kyle Drabek could fall, who reaks of a player most here would hate to see selected, but would be an excellent value pick). That doesn't even begin to mention the hitters I like (versus the hitters I'm hearing in connection with the Brewers, who I have more than hinted at in other places). And, I'm less bashful about sharing my faves because of where the team picks, and I do believe they need to start thinking about the more immediate future with their draft picks. Last year was really the only year I didn't have an overwhelming favorite, but that was more because there were 3-5 guys I would have been happy with given the strength at the top.

One thing that doesn't/hasn't been discussed is what happens after the player is drafted and how well the organization is doing at maximizing that players realization of their talent. It may be a complete crapshoot, but it seems like some organizations just produce pitchers (Braves, Cubs) and others don't (Brewers, Cards, Royals). Maybe it isn't in the players that are drafted, but it has to do with the player development system of the organization. Maybe the Brewers inability to take HS Pitcher A and turn him into a healthy player who can produce in some role at the major league level is the real problem. First of all, the Cubs? If the Cubs were a talent machine like the Braves, they wouldn't be so "cursed." But I agree with your point, and someone else brought this up as well above (or on the thread in the minor league forum discussing this). It's interesting that you brought up the Cardinals because like the Brewers they're at their best picking up other team's players on the cheap. Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, Chris Carpenter and others were all acquired relatively cheap, as the Brewers can make the same claims with Davis, Turnbow and all of Dougie's reclammation projects, not to mention several shrewd trades. So maybe that's the key, let other people develop players and then go out and trade for them. Nick Neugebauer and Dana Evelend were rushed too quickly to the majors by 2 different GMs. Eveland was rushed? Maybe last year's callup was a little hasty, but I don't think he was rushed. For pitchers he seems to over emphasize velocity and for hitters he seems to overemphasize tools. I'll give you the pitchers, as we're really hanging onto Gallardo and Inman (and Rogers), who are Jack Z's most recent, early prep picks. However, I have always been impressed with the Fielder selection because he went with the best hitter. While hitting (and power) are tools, he wasn't going for that toolsy outfielder (like Krynzel, or even Cameron Maybin), as Fielder was questioned for everything outside of his hitting prowess. Hardy wasn't overly toolsy, he was just one heck of a shortstop. Not that JJ is lacking on tools, but he's not exactly Josh Murray, and there was a fair amount of concern about his ability to hit when they drafted him.

I appreciate getting another fan's perspective on this, so thanks for jumping in fewgoodcards. It is funny how we pine for a college pitcher, yet another fan hopes for a prep arm. I think what both points prove is that you have to take the RIGHT arm, or the right player overall. It doesn't matter what level they play at. It's funny because most of the guys fewgoodcards mentioned were fire-ballers coming out of college, guys that were known for how hard they threw and not for how well they pitched. The Brewers prep draft picks have the same problems. That's why I always like the guys that show the ability to pitch first and throw hard second. Jeremy Sowers has been getting batters out at every level he has been at despite topping out around 90 mph. Look at Doug Davis, Capuano, and even Tomo Ohka if you want to throw a righty in the mix. David Bush is consistently 89-91 from what I've seen of him so far this year, and the rotation's only true fireballer is on the DL. Gimme Jared Hughes or David Huff in round one for the above reason. Hughes is a groundball machine while Huff is your prototypical crafty lefty that is drawing more and more comparisons to Barry Zito.

Greg has always made a well-state case for the anti-prep pick debate. I have always said that you can't exclude any player based on the groupings of players that have preceeded them despite leaning towards not taking prep pitchers in round 1. My biggest problem with the Rogers pick wasn't that he was a HS pitcher (although that fueled a good deal of the concern), but that he wasn't even considered the best HS pitcher available. According to some teams he wasn't, but according to others he was. I know you keep bringing this point up, but really we only know that based on the reports from Baseball America. If the Brewers had stuck to who the best players available were at the time (according to others), Prince Fielder never would have been the team's selection in 2002 based on the reports. In fact, that is why so many people (including myself up until I got to see him perform at the pre-draft workout) were upset with the Fielder pick at the time. I was against the Rogers pick when it happened, and I think most others were pretty opposed to it at the time as well, especially when Jeremy Sowers and Thomas Diamond were sitting there (Sowers would be in the rotation right now). I was pretty stoked about the Gallardo pick because in a mock draft before the '04 draft I had him going 10th overall to the Rangers. Getting him in the 2nd round was a huge bargain, and no matter what your philosophy is, getting a player that should/could have been a mid-first rounder in the 2nd round is always a good thing. As for Inman, no one (except for his family members) expected this kind of success early on. I understand that he has a long ways to go, but so far, so good, and I don't see how you couldn't call his selection a huge success based on his initial results. lovehate brings up a good point that Jack Z. prefers to hit home runs with his early picks instead of going for a safe, more polished player. He also has made claims of his preference of getting the "best" of something, such as Jones and Rogers being (in their opinion) the best prep pitchers available in the entire draft, Prince being the best hitter, Krynzel being the best athlete/fastest, etc. Rickie was a no-brainer. Really, Fielder is the only first-rounder that Jack Z. has hit on when using that philosophy, which is actually pretty scary when you think about it. I would like to remind you of my player procurement story: www.brewerfan.net/ViewArt...icleId=198 If you start ignoring high school pitchers in the first round you would have passed on Jake Westbrook, Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Jeremy Bonderman, Jon Garland and Josh Beckett. Second rounders include Greg Maddux, Greg Maddux, David Wells and Jeff Suppan. Matt Clement and Bronson Arroyo are a couple of notable prep third rounders. On the flip side, I have also disproved that prep hitters are noticeably better than college ones in this story: www.brewerfan.net/ViewArt...icleId=229

BA's draft coverage is picking up: BA: DraftTracker BA: Top Tools BA: Top 100 Prospects (subscribers only) BA: Top 100 Prospects with scouting reports (subscribers only) Of course, you can view over 100 scouting reports here at Brewerfan.net, for free, and they've been adding up for several months now (sorry, don't mean to gloat, but it's true http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ).

Mass said it all. I may be on board with you if you're talking solely about the first round, but after that you better back yourself up better than that if you want me jumping on your bandwagon.