colbyjack

Bradley is the most likely to fall to 12, due to his dual-sport commitment to Oklahoma (check out this story I wrote on the subject). Jungmann is a legitimate candidate to be among those considered for the first overall pick, and if Matt Barnes continues to trend upward, I don't think he'll make it out of the top 10.

Paul, as mentioned to kick this thread off, visit this thread to see where I mentioned how Francisco Lindor would look really good for the Brewers with one of their first-round picks. Lindor could be gone by the time the team picks, but he doesn't have the upside/athleticism of guys like Tim Beckham and Justin Upton to go among the top 3-5 overall picks. Some prognosticators have him ranked much lower than a potential mid first-round pick, questioning his bat, but his ability to make adjustments, play at his best during his biggest opportunities as well as the way he carries himself on the field leads me to believe he has a much better chance to succeed at the next level than most do. Plus, he's silky smooth at SS, and shouldn't have to worry about his glove holding him back (or moving elsewhere).

I see Scooter in AA, if not in April, by June/July. They're going to be aggressive with him now that Lawrie is gone, and that he's old for his experience. He'll move quick at 2B. That is an interesting thought. Gennett, like Lawrie, debuted with Wisconsin after signing late the summer he was drafted. They put up similar numbers at a similar age and overall experience, and like Lawrie, Gennett has a cockiness about him that has helped him be so successful. Those parallels don't necessarily mean he will also be challenged to open the 2011 season, but it wouldn't surprise me. As Toby has projected, I do hope Kentrail gets the bump to AA to open next year, basically picking up where he left off to open last season. If he can't make the adjustments to succeed at that level at his age and with his experience I fear he'll never be able to ultimately succeed. Garfield hit the ball hard every AB I saw last year. He has a short swing and looks good behind the plate (I don't think it'd be a stretch to say he looked better than Lucroy did when he first came up). I don't agree with you here. When I saw Garfield the first thing I wrote down was that he needed to shorten his swing and stay within himself. I give him a lot of credit for being the everyday catcher at such a young age for a relatively advanced group of arms, but he needs a lot of work. He's a good overall athlete, but he was overmatched in the MWL last year (and the Pioneer League the year before), and probably should have spent each of the last two seasons one level lower than where he actually was.

I agree that few have the upside that Richardson does in the system, but also keep in mind that he was drafted out of college, so you somewhat expect to see such a player enjoy some success upon beginning their pro career (as opposed to Brewer and Walla).

Not sure why it took a while to hit the shelves, but Bell's Christmas Ale is finally out, one of my favorite seasonals (I'm also a big fan of their Oktoberfest). Capital's Winter Skal is also a fave of mine this time of year.

Going back to the original premise of the post, I really think Brooks Hall has the highest upside of prospects rarely discussed. His numbers weren't pretty during his debut last year, but it was the first year that he focused on pitching after being drafted as a potential 2-way recruit (South Carolina). We really haven't heard much about him since being added to the system, but his upside rivals anyone currently in the system. And we may have to wait until June to start following his career again.

I honestly don't think it changes their approach too much, as my mention of Francisco Lindor was more for fun (and out of excitement of acquiring Greinke) than a belief that they will switch gears based solely on their recent activity. I obviously really like Lindor, and felt he was a good fit regardless of the move of Alcides Escobar. Shortstops are so incredibly valuable, and the team really hasn't done a good job drafting them since Hardy (after historically having very good fortune with them dating back to Gorman Thomas, Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Dale Sveum, etc.). I think we will see the trend of college draftees continue. Look at the drafts since Zduriencik left and you'll see an obvious preference for college players. In 2009 they took college players with their first, two sandwich picks, 3rd, 5th-9th and 11th-15th round picks. In 2010 they did so with their 2nd-6th, 8th, and 10th-14th round picks. Of course their first they spent on Covey, who opted for college. In general, college players not only progress faster, but they typically enjoy better results earlier in their careers, giving them more value in trades. Of course of the most recent trade, only Cain can be considered a college player, and even he spent only one year at a juco as a DFE signee. Even then we're talking about players signed in 2003 (Escobar), 2005 (Cain), 2006 (Jeffress), and 2008 (Odirizzi). Whether the team completely develops a player and/or uses them as valuable trade chips, typically the college draftee has move value in both regards more quickly. With the additions of Greinke and Marcum, and the development of the pitchers that still remain, as well as the trade of Lawrie to get Marcum, I could see the team load up on more bats. In the next Power 50, you're going to see a lot of pitchers named early and often, although I'm sure the team will remain extremely pitcher conscious, particularly with the addition of a pitching crosschecker to their scouting staff. And while the team has done a very good job budgeting appropriately for the draft, not going cheap on the extra, early picks they had in 2008 and 2009, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for somewhat of a budget-conscious pick at #15 with the compensatory pick for Covey. They may be a little snake-bitten not signing Covey, and their budget may be a little more pressed next year given the most recent big-league acquisitions. As I always argue, it's all about who you take, so even if you do draft on a budget, you have to make sure you take the right player at the right place.

Mark Loretta, a 7th round pick in 1993, was eventually traded to the Astros for Keith Ginter (and Wayne Franklin). Keith Ginter was later traded to the Oakland A's for Nelson Cruz (and Justin Lehr). Scott Podsednik, who was selected off waivers from the Seattle Mariners, was eventually traded to the White Sox (along with LuisVizcaino and Travis Hinton) for Carlos Lee. Carlos Lee, and Nelson Cruz, were later traded to the Texas Rangers for Francisco Cordero (and other parts I won't mench mention -- sorry about that). Cordero signed with the Reds during the 2007-08 offseason, and netted the Brewers a supplemental first-round pick as well as a 2nd rounder. While the 2nd rounder (Seth Lintz) has yet to progress as hoped, that sandwich pick was used to select Jake Odorizzi. So, in a long, round about way, we can thank both Mark Loretta and Scott Podsednik for helping to land Zack Greinke. And, we still don't know who that player to be named will be from the Blue Jays, courtesy of Carlos Villanueva via Wayne Franklin via Mark Loretta, the gift that keeps on giving. Merry Christmas http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

Rogers is what, 25? His ceiling is what he did last year. The dude throws 101 mph. He hasn't come close to reaching his ceiling. Whether or not he gets there has nothing to do with his age. And my wife isn't from Maine.

Not a single mention of Gennett and Richardson looks to be a toolsy player like Cain. I'm assuming you're responding to my post since a few people already mentioned Gennett and Richardson, and if so I should point out that I was focusing on players at the AAA and AA levels that are in position to contribute at the big league level in the next 1-2 years. For what it's worth, I have Gennett 7th and Richardson 34th on my own P50, and I recognize that Richardson has the upside to soar up this list if he puts up solid numbers at BC next season. I've been a big fan of both players since their days in high school (Gennett) and college for Richardson at Florida State. Here is a pre-draft writeup I did on Gennett if you're interested: http://www.5tooltalk.com/dandydozen-3-13-09.html And more on Richardson (you'll notice a pair of Brewers farmhands mentioned in my 2009 college sleepers story): http://www.5tooltalk.com/collegenotes3-25-09.html http://www.5tooltalk.com/...llegeimpactsleepers.html

I always stress the importance of not drafting for need, but after dealing Escobar, the Brewers have a pretty gaping hole at SS. I think this entire offseason has proven that shortstops in general are at a premium, and as we've talked about a lot over the years, shortstops in general are typically the best athletes on the field. That said, after dealing Escobar I think the Brewers need to aggressively find their SS of the future, even if that means 3-5 years down the road. Francisco Lindor immediately becomes one of my favorite targets for the Brewers first pick (#12 overall) in next June's draft.

I just wrapped up my own personal P50, and while the talent level has obviously taken a significant hit, I still see a lot of players that are a good bet to make contributions to the big-league team in the next few years. Even with the acquisitions of Greinke and Marcum, Rivas and Rogers should provide excellent depth at AAA. McClendon and Braddock appear as though they are already part of the big-league bullpen, while Brandon Kintzler, Michael Fiers, Andre Lamontagne and even Tim Dillard provide depth there. Pat Egan and Justin James are wildcards in this conversation. Peralta, Heckathorn and Scarpetta will be one step below Rogers and Rivas at AA. There are some outfielders that could help should Dickerson, Gomez and Brandon Boggs not get the job done in Gindl, Schafer and Komatsu. Taylor Green is a guy I hope gets back on track as a 2B/3B utility type, and then there is Eric Farris, who is scrutinized frequently, but the club clearly likes him quite a bit and he has some valuable tools to a big-league club. In my most recent interview with Bruce Seid, I really like how he pointed out they aren't just drafting the guys with the highest upside, the boom or bust type players, but also potential role players. How the Brewers fill in every single spot on their 25-man roster is crucial, especially since the payroll is clearly going to be an issue moving forward.

Since Scutaro was brought up, weren't the Red Sox rumored to be willing to basically give him and his contract away earlier this offseason? I agree that Punto would be a good target, and the easier route would be to just re-sign Counsell, but Scutaro could be had relatively easily. Melvin deserves a lot of credit for acquiring Greinke and Marcum, but I agree that how he handles shortstop after the acquisition of Betancourt could be another big feather in his cap this offseason.

I agree with Toby, Odorizzi being included makes a lot more sense. Anytime we as fans can acquire an amazing player in return without feeling much remorse in the players we lost usually is a sign of either a false rumor or a very bad trade for the other team. Losing Odorizzi hurts the most, as it should to get a player like Greinke in return. I'm going to jump ahead of everyone and pin Zack Greinke as the Brewers' Reggie White http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

If the reported Greinke trade is anywhere close to being true, I'm curious how many people would prefer a trade of Cain and Jeffress to the Rays for Garza? Escobar obviously stays put since the Rays have Reid Brignac, and the Rays still address two potential needs (if Upton is indeed on the block).

I'll also feel really badly for Breen if this deal either falls through, or if his rumor/source was wrong. He's really putting his reputation out there to be shredded to pieces. WSSP has been known to conjure up a false rumor or two every year at the trade deadline, and yet they continue to have a following despite the fact that I have yet to see anything that would come close to giving them any sort of credibility. Breen is wording his tweets well in the event that if he's wrong (or just making this up), starting with his trepidation of posting this rumor to begin with, he can come out of this relatively unscathed fairly easily.

I agree with that endaround on the Royals assessment overall, but I also recognize that Escobar was one of the top prospects in all of baseball at this time last year as TheCrew noted. We may be a little down on Escobar after the season he had (not to mention the winter he's having), and that his value, particularly as a shortstop, is greater than many to most of us, myself included, are giving him credit for.

The rumor last week was that they were looking for middle infield and CF prospects in return for Greinke. I understand that, my point is that no GM should make a trade just to address current needs for a player like Greinke. You shouldn't try to get too cute addressing current needs when you're about to trade your best player. This has been a long standing point of mine over the years, and it is a similar premise that bit the Twins when they traded Johan Santana to the Mets. At the time they claimed they didn't want to trade Santana to an AL team despite the fact that both the Yankees and Red Sox reportedly had better offers on the table than what the Twins got in return. Get the best players, regardless of position, and move forward. I feel the same way about dealing Fielder...don't pigeon-hole yourself and only look for the best pitching-based package, which could suck (see the return for Jeff Cirillo).

The deal sounds a little too good to be true to me. I know Greinke is effectively forcing a trade, but I would find it hard to believe this is the best package the Royals can get, unless they're more focused on getting specific pieces, like a SS and CF, in return.

The national pitching coordinator position is interesting. I don't think I have ever seen such a scout included to a department. Adding a few more Latin American scouts is a good thing. I'm curious if they're doing something similar to the Blue Jays, unless they have had a few territorial shifts, by hiring a few extra scouts. I know Harvey Kuenn, Jr. used to cover the upper Midwest, with Minnesota, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois being his territory. If Anderson is taking four of those states, and Kansas, that's quite the reduced area for Kuenn to cover (if he's still with the team, and I haven't heard otherwise). Of course, it doesn't take much to cover the Dakotas.

Yes, I was just referring to pitchers at the AAA and AA levels. Odorizzi may see AA at some point next year, but he is unlikely to open the 2011 season there.

I just wanted to make mention that he could have been much more special to this organization than he currently is if Dean Taylor hadn't decided we needed the all-star trio of Jimmy Haynes, Jamey Wright and Henry Blanco. I'm not sure how many people remember this, but at the time of the trade Taylor stated that he intended to get two young, yet capable, big-league starters in return for Cirillo. I remember the Expos were upset at the time because they offered Carl Pavano, who was one of the more talented young arms in the game at the time. Pavano didn't consistently settle into the big-leagues for a few more years, and as nice as it would be to have him now (minus the free agent acquisition necessity), it doesn't look as though Pavano during the Jamey Wright and Jimmy Haynes years would have fared much better. All the more reason why trading for unproven commodities is risky business. Back to the point, Cirillo was also my favorite player of the time, but as noted, pales in comparison to what Molitor and Yount did during their careers. Compared to the rest of the '82 squad, it's possible that the only hitters Cirillo would have been more productive than were Moore and Gantner.

You put Jeffress at Nashville to open the 2011 season as a starter. Reports out of Arizona noted that he struggled as much as he did because he was working on his changeup. I think that indicates the Brewers intend (as they should) to return him to a starting role to at least open next year. I still see him being incredibly similar to Edison Volquez, and hopefully Jeffress can learn to be more consistent (and healthy). Even if he doesn't pan out as a starter he has very good value. Pitchers that can throw 100 mph don't grow on trees.

While I agree to the end of your reasoning, I am not sure we can turn that down. Two probably good young starters that are either 2/3's or 3/4's for six years as well as a year of a guy that could be a good fill-in starter for a year trumps a possible starting CF for six years, a closer type reliever, and a high upside lefty that hasn't yet figured it out for three years. Doug would have to pull the trigger on that prospective trade. But the prospective trade was Cain/Jeffress for Beachy/Minor. I'm not sure why you lumped Kawakami into that mix, tossing Parra into it as well. Sorry, of all of the starters that have been tossed out for discussion in recent weeks, Kawakami has the most "Suppan" to him of any of them. I'm not so sure I would pull the trigger on that one, as he significantly lessens that trade. And why would you want Kawakami if you could get Beachy and Minor for Jeffress and Cain? I'm not saying you could, but that was paul253's original question. TLB, re-check the quote you grabbed. That didn't come from me.

Colby would you trade Cain and Jeffress for Beachy and Minor? Yes, I would pull the trigger on that trade fairly quick. But no thanks to Kawakami. And Parra still has value to the team, I wouldn't sell low on him just because he hasn't come close to living up to his potential. Jorge de la Rosa is proof that Melvin might be on to something about lefties blooming late.