colbyjack

My weekly column up at PG today focuses on the depth of left-handed pitching available for next year's draft: http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=5030 Left-handed pitching IMO is the Brewers most lacking asset in their system. Zach Braddock, Daniel Merklinger, Del Howell, Jon Pokorny and Chuck Lofgren are the only lefties on the P50, and Braddock, who looks like he will continue his career as a reliever, is the only one before Merklinger checks in at #35. Lofgren barely made the cut, and Pokorny also projects as a reliever. While I don't think any team should simply draft a pitcher because they are left-handed, I wouldn't be surprised to see a greater emphasis placed on this. Not too long ago the system was pretty light on left-handed bats, and now the system is fairly loaded with them (Ke. Davis, Gennett, Morris, Dennis, Komatsu, Gindl, Schafer, Green, Haydel), as I'm pretty sure that wasn't an accident.

If you know what he looks like and know that he goes to South Division HS that's a pretty good start to retrieving your iPod. It sucks that it happened, but I wouldn't pass on filing a report out of fear. As noted, the sooner you do so the better.

One week to go...at least we're not a part of Piratesfan.net. 1. Pirates - .355 2. Mariners - .381 3. Orioles - .394 4. Royals - .406 5. D-Backs - .410 6. Indians - .417 7. D-Backs (Loux) 8. Nationals - .429 9. Cubs - .452 10. Padres (Whitson) 11. Brewers - .471 12. Astros - .474 13. Dodgers - .481 14. Angels - .484 15. Brewers (Covey) 16. Mets - .490 17. A's - .497 18. Marlins - .497 19. Blue Jays - .516 20. Tigers - .516 21. Cardinals - .516 22. White Sox - .535 23. Rockies - .535 24. Red Sox - .555 25. Red - .558 26. Braves - .558 27. Padres - .561 28. Rangers - .561 29. Giants - .564 30. Twins - .594 31. Phillies - .596 32. Yankees - .596 33. Rays - .600

I don't know if this is normal on these forums, but it might be a fun exercise to take all our guys on the Power 50 and give them projected assignments. Is that a thread worthy topic? Toby already beat me to mentioning his usual excellent projections of next year's rosters. Jeffress' velocity has been a disappointment so far. He was sitting around 93 or 94 mph on the stadium gun today while pitching in relief. It's not set in stone that Jeffress is going to continue to work as a reliever, as he very well could return to a starting role. It's been stated all year that the move to the bullpen was to give Jeffress more regular work so he doesn't fall back onto bad habits. I've actually been impressed with his command, and if he was 93-94 today, that is the lowest I've seen him since his callup. His first game he was 96-98 and he's been 94-97 since.

Thanks a lot Toby, as I know coming up with these is more than just having a few minutes to kill! As you noted, the depth in the starting pitching at each level is really exciting. Were there any players you were tempted to bump up more aggressively that you think the Brewers might be tempted to do the same with in the spring? I could see Kentrail Davis skipping BC since he started this past year there anyway. And I do hope you're right about Farris at SS to improve his value through versatility. While SS is one of the weakest positions in the system, 2B has to be the strongest. I'd also like to see Dykstra given another shot at the OF so if he doesn't have one set position he may develop as a similar player to Chone Figgins. Maybe if Kentrail Davis does skip BC Dykstra could play both CF and 3B, and even spell Gennett at 2B from time to time. Too much time between now and more baseball...

Rogers and Scarpetta aren't very similar to me. Rogers is a very good, loose overall athlete, while Scarpetta is a more sturdily built, barrel-chested hurler, and as noted Scarpetta's stuff isn't as electric. I do agree that he could very well leap-frog several of the other pitchers on this list with a big year at AA next year. I agree with Toby that Neda could be promoted past Garfield, who should repeat low-A. Neda's D' is good enough to play just about anywhere, including Milwaukee. I think you're right that the full catching pipeline likely will keep Roberts at Helena next summer, unless they do bump up Garfield one level and push Neda all the way up to AA. Garfield just hasn't been very good at the plate, and I would hate to see his confidence destroyed at BC.

Both Oakland and San Francisco have had their own problems in their respective markets. Remember when the Giants threatened to move to the St. Petersburg area, probably 10-12 years ago, before they got their new stadium? Texas could probably handle a third team (San Antonio), Portland and Charlotte as noted would seem like viable options, and Oklahoma City seems to be growing pretty quick. If Las Vegas ever gets a big professional sports team, I doubt the first will be a MLB club. Overall, that's too bad for the Rays. They really have built one heck of a system from top to bottom, somewhat like what the Twins have going for them. Although I thought Tampa had managed to secure a new stadium right on the bay, although it's been a while since I heard anything about that. I could see them remaining competitive even with a much smaller payroll, as there are some pieces in place to replace some of the talent they project to lose.

I know battlekow posted that Tyler Roberts was the #4 prospect in the Arizona League the other day, but since there are a lot of lists coming out, I thought it would be nice to have them all in one place. This thread could morph into the team-by-team prospects as those lists will follow the league-by-league ones within a matter of weeks. And a question fielded by Bill Mitchell in the AZL chat: Five years ago Lorenzo Cain was the league's #8 prospect after taking home MVP hardware. The late Nick Adenhart is probably the only other name of mention on that list. Here is the schedule for the lists. The Pioneer League is up on Monday, Midwest League up next Friday: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/ Any guesses for those two? You would think the Helena pitching staff (Nelson, Thornburg, Miller) could be represented well. The T-Rats could also have a nice presence on the MWL list (Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Gennett, Ke. Davis). By the way, Jesse Biddle, a prep lefty whom many had linked to the Brewers prior to the draft, was named the #7 prospect in the Gulf Coast League: Biddle grew up just outside of Philadelphia, and his hometown team made him a first-round pick and handed him a $1.16 million bonus in June. He helped pitch the Phillies to the Northern Division title but was promoted before they won the GCL playoffs. A physical lefthander, Biddle has a strong 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame and a 90-94 mph fastball. He has good command and mound presence for a high school pitcher. He also throws a curveball and changeup that need more consistency. In the spring, scouts saw him throw a slider that they preferred to his curveball and thought had the potential to become a plus pitch.

I would hope this becomes a 3 way deal so we can get what we really need. While Melvin doesn't even seek out 3 team deals, Dave Dombrowski has no problem getting them done. Melvin will ask for a MLB pitcher, and Dombrowski will go find one. Greinke would be best, with the Brewers also throwing in some prospects, just not our top guys. The only problem with that is finding a team that would want/need Fielder more than Greinke. Nothing against Fielder, but if they have and are willing to deal prospects that could pry Greinke away from Kansas City, more than likely they're going to try and keep him for themselves.

Somewhere Jim Callis is blushing...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. Seriously though, that's some major BA love. I love the publication, I have been a subscriber since 1998 and they're the best of what they do. However, much of what Callis offers (like Rogers moving to the bullpen) is his opinion. Does he have a more informed opinion? Absolutely, but it still remains an opinion. As for their list compilation, yes, they talk to a lot of scouts for the scouting information, but the scouts don't compile the lists, the BA writers do based on the information they have compiled. Even if the scouts did compile the lists, it's important to remember that the lists are subjective. The lists don't dictate who GMs are trading for or even how teams view their own prospects, even if I'm sure each one of them has a BA prospect handbook on their desk. That said, I agree with your overall premise the package suggested isn't going to get Greinke. Lawrie and/or Odorizzi need to be included, or you have to find a way to acquire him in a 3-way with Fielder going to a team in need of a big bat willing to deal some prospects. The tough thing about that is, how many teams would want Fielder more than Greinke for themselves? As for the Brewers prospects, Mark Rogers may not be in the top 100 on BA's top 100 list, but the dude throws 93-97 consistently and touched 101 just a few weeks ago. He throws 4 pitches, and while he needs to work on his command, his upside is about as high as they come. If he's not in the top 100, it's not because of his scouting profile, it's because of his injury history, which certainly is a huge issue to consider if a team is going to consider trading for him. Rivas is a fringe prospect? I'm not sure about that. He may not profile as a top of the rotation starter, but here's another guy that has thrown pretty well with a polished changeup. Stats may not support this guy, but he still profiles as a 3-5 starter. 3-5 starters are still in demand at the MLB level. Fringe prospects are guys like Eric Farris whose value is questioned as to whether or not he can start or even be a decent 25th man on a roster. As for the Brewerfan.net staff and the Power 50, we may not be talking to the number of scouts that BA is, but we follow every game, and talk to a lot of the people that watch these players on an every day basis. I would like to think that we, and many of the people that follow the minor league forum on an everyday basis, are in a better position to speak of the Brewers' minor leaguers than Tom Haudricourt, who writes the reports for, yup, Baseball America. And since you're a Brewers fan and obviously a fan of prospects and the like, I'm surprised it's taken this long for you to find us.

If I had a case of tasty beer and bragging rights on the line, I'd root for the Brewers. I'm not rooting for the Brewers to finish with a worse record than the Cubs, but I would like it to happen, if that makes sense. Just having the ability to jump 2 spots by finishing worse than the Cubs seems like worthwhile jump, and being in the top 10 may give the Brewers a chance to take one of the premium college arms such as Barnes or Gray. If one of those premium college arms isn't at the Brewers first pick, I would probably take a prep bat like Blake Swihart and then a polished college arm (Bradley/Hultzen/Bauer as suggested) that shouldn't pose a signing risk at #15. The organization needs another impact bat in the system, and while I like guys like Jackie Bradley and Francisco Lindor, they don't exactly project to be impact hitters at the next level. Swihart is the second best pure hitter in this draft after Rendon IMO.

I imagine either Oliver or Porcello would be the headliner in a deal with the Tigers. Melvin has shown a strong preference for MLB-readiness, and I doubt the Tigers would want to part with Turner. Porcello isn't going anywhere, and Turner's upside is greater than Oliver's. Turner's fairly polished for a prep arm, even if he's a few levels below that of Oliver. I do agree that Melvin typically prefers MLB-readiness, but I really hope he takes the best player he can get for Fielder and not a collection of lesser MLB-ready talent. I do like Oliver, just not as much as Turner. Casey Crosby is a dark-horse depending on how he is recovering from injury (and he obviously wouldn't be the cog of the deal because of that). They are a good fit, as are the Rays, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Red Sox, and maybe the White Sox. The Rays are a good fit on paper, but not realistically. As noted a couple of posts before yours, the Giants may not be as obvious as a candidate if they re-sign Huff and given Brandon Belt's emergence as a prospect. The Mets have Ike Davis seemingly set at 1B for years to come, and the Red Sox likely wouldn't go overboard to get involved unless Youkilis slides back to 3B next season. The Mariners may be intent on developing recently acquired Justin Smoak as their 1B of the future. Others have mentioned the Rangers and Angels as obvious trade partners, and I think the Orioles could be up to swing a deal to try and make some noise. The Dodgers could use some offense even if their system doesn't seem to have the necessary pieces to work with, and you can never rule out a team like the A's or Blue Jays for a surprise. The White Sox as noted would continue to remain an obvious suitor, especially if they lose Konerko to FA. Although I'm not sure what they have left in their system.

Even if Huff moves on, the Giants may be less likely to be interested in Fielder with the development of Brandon Belt, who soared through high A and AA this season putting up huge numbers, finishing the year at AAA. I still like how Detroit matches up with the Brewers. They have some young pitching, a few pricey players that will come off the books this offseason (Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez - $15M option with no buyout and he's not going to reach the games started/plate appearance numbers for it to automatically kick in) and they aren't shy about dealing with Boras (Damon, Ordonez, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Andy Oliver, Jacob Turner).

I think the 10th-15th area will be an excellent range to pluck up some of the top prep players. There should be some good college arms in that range (even if they don't profile as future aces), including Jed Bradley, Danny Hultzen, Trevor Bauer and possibly even Gray if scouts are still concerned with his height (and Austin Wood of USC and Ryan Carpenter of Gonzaga are players I have rated more highly than other places). I do agree that they will probably target more of a safe pick with the 15th selection, although that doesn't mean they necessarily have to reach for such a player. Barnes is getting a lot of love after his summer performance for the top 5-7 overall picks, so if he continues to improve, I wouldn't expect him to make it to the Brewers picks. I'm not sure if Harvey is a good comp. Barnes' secondary stuff is still developing, but he has a loose arm and a live fastball, and may be more similar to Asher Wojciechowski or Tanner Scheppers.

Already mentioned, but I don't see Cole or Purke falling past the top 3-5 picks. If they do, money and/or injury is involved, both of which more than likely would cause them to continue to fall. The 2011 draft has a handful of interesting college bats, but it's not loaded there. If anything, that's one thing keeping next year's draft from being considered special, a la 2005. Rendon and Springer are pretty exciting at the top, and while there is some interesting depth, there aren't really any true impact hitters. The arms once again should define next year's crop.

Since the Packers/Bills game didn't provide any Sunday stress, I was able to put the finishing touches on the first 2011 draft-related Dandy Dozen during the game: http://www.5tooltalk.com/dandydozen.html I'm going to try and get a new one up every 2-3 weeks so that by the New Year I'll have 50+ reports on the site before the spring scouting season starts back up, so stay tuned for updates.

I finally got around to getting the top 50 prospect list up at 5 Tool Talk. I have notes and observations up (most available from the homepage) from most of my work this past summer. Check the archives in the features and notes sections for more info pertaining to some of the top players. The talent at the top could be pretty special. http://www.5tooltalk.com/topprospects.html

That helps a lot, thanks. It's my understanding based on your and others responses that the individual player WAR is pretty accurate at determining their individual worth, but an overall team's success isn't as easily determined simply by adding up all the WARs. I personally love the concept of luck, both good and bad, as it also provides hope.

Thanks as always Mass, and thanks as well to not only battlekow and TheCrew07 for their help and dedication, but also to everyone else that chimed in throughout the year. Nice to see the season end on a high note with a pair of league championships, particularly since it seems the mood around here wasn't the brightest the first couple of months this season.

MTBrew, thanks for chiming in. It's always nice to hear from you and your first-hand observations. I agree with your assessment, even if I was only listening (for the most part) to the games from afar.

IIRC, D'Vo impressed at last year's instrux as well. Bill Mitchell is good for baseball in many ways...

CheezWizHead...not to diminish my fathering skills, but the wife got home late last night, thus the extra effort http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. Congrats to the Helena Brewers. As Tedaldtada29 noted, the T-Rats have to be excited since both rookie clubs (how often does that happen?) won their league championships this year. I remember MTBrew bringing this up a year ago, and I'd love to hear his stance on the team this year, about how the Helena team hasn't played well as a unit the past couple of years. Obviously when it comes to winning and losing, I think I know what his response would be, but after listening (and even watching) a handful of games this year, this club certainly didn't beat themselves very often. If defensive stats are available, I would guess that the H-Crew boasted one of the better units. Tedaldtada29 also noted that Eric Marzec had one heck of a summer. Nice to see he, Miler, Nelson & Garman (another sleeper prospect along with Marzec) combine on the championship game victory. Holding that pitching staff together, particularly over the last month, was Rafael Neda. He's going to be the glue to that staff moving forward, and could even leap-frog Cam Garfield (who IMO should repeat low-A) next year. Neda is an absolute stud defensively, and anything he provides offensively is pure gravy. He really neutralized the running game, and should be a rock for the organization's young pitchers over the next 2-3 years. Cody Hawn of course was the star of the evening. I still contend he's the better pure hitter between he and Hunter Morris (although Morris very well could have posted Nintendo-numbers had he began his pro career in the Pioneer League). I'm just really excited to see this club win the Pioneer League championship. Congrats!

Thanks thebruce for the link, and to sveumrules for the Reds breakdown. From the link provided: One standard deviation of the difference between WAR and actual record is 6.4 wins, and every single team is within two standard deviations. Only four teams were more than 10 wins away from their projected total by WAR, with Tampa Bay ending up the furthest away from our expectation (96.6 projected wins, 84 actual wins), and 18 of the 30 teams were within six wins of their projected WAR total. After reading this, along with several of the responses, I realized the projection isn't 100% accurate, not like any of them are, so there is some wiggle room to the overall vs. individual WAR projections. And again, I wasn't talking about projections as much as what actually happened. 12 of the 30 teams were off by more than 6 wins, with an average of 6.4 as noted, so obviously there is some significant give/take when it comes to the team's success in both directions. Basically, if the goal for next year's team is 92 wins, that doesn't necessarily mean that all of the individual players' WARs need to add up to 92. The closer the better obviously.

Whether he makes it as a starter will have nothing to do with his height, it will be determined by his change-up and fastball command. There is few short RHSP simply because there is few short pro RHP overall. Very few pitchers that size have plus velocity. I agree with X's point 100%. Being a shorter RHP doesn't mean the odds are necessarily against him succeeding, just that he's in a smaller class of player. The only odds against him are the same ones that are against everyone else in that making it to and sustaining success at the big-league level is extremely difficult. And as the Manny Parras of the world have proven, that quite often goes far past one's physical talents.

I have a question for the stat-minded individuals, or anyone that can answer the question. Win projection is usually used moving and looking forward, trying to determine what a team may win with what players they have and/or may obtain. I see a lot of arguments that say something to the effect of "getting player X would only lead to a difference of Y wins." Has anyone ever run this exercise based on history and what has actually happened? Specifically, can you look at the individual statistics from the 2009 Reds, a 78-84 team (individual by individual), and accurately point to why they project to finish this year 92-70? Does the difference in stats equal the 14 win differential, or are there some collaborative results, including luck and/or defensive metrics, for reason as to why the team is playing significantly better as a whole? I ask that looking forward to 2011, wondering if the Brewers really need certain acquisitions, and improvement from their own players, to exactly equal the win differential based on an improvement of statistics to become a playoff team? Is a complete overhaul needed to reach that goal, or is it realistic with the players they have right now (with some key additions and improvements from others of course)? Thanks in advance.