colbyjack

More and more rumors floating out there, as it seems as though Cordero could head to a team that is among the 15 worst teams from 2007, with the Houston Astros being mentioned frequently. This of course would mean the Brewers would get a second round pick if that's the way it shakes out. And that makes sense, considering the 15 best teams from 2007 for the most part already have established closers. The Cubs really are the only team that I could see of the teams drafting in the 16-30 range that would make a strong run for Coco, and I'd much rather they didn't.

With Posada re-signing with the Yankees and the expectation that Mariano Rivera will likely follow suit with Mike Lowell likely to remain in Boston, that leaves Arod as the only free agent rated higher than Cordero. That means unless Cordero signs with the same team that signs Arod, which would seem incredibly unlikely, the Brewers will be getting the top possible pick from whichever teams signs him. If that team finished among the 15 best teams in baseball, that would mean a first rounder. If that team finished among the worst 15 teams in baseball, that would mean a second rounder, and a relatively early second rounder at that. Sandwich picks are awarded in order to the worst team that lost the best FA, meaning, only Barry Bonds and Torri Hunter would garner the Giants and Twins respectively the first and second overall picks in the supplemental round, only if the Giants and Twins offer arbitration to those two players (I would guess the Twins will do so with Hunter, my guess is that the Giants will not do so with Bonds). That means that if Cordero or Linebrink sign elsewhere, since they're both Type A free agents, the Brewers will receive no worse than the third pick of the sandwich round. If both Cordero and Linebrink sign elsewhere, the picks cycle through all of the other teams first before the Brewers get the opportunity to pick again, and all of the comp picks are awarded for the Type A free agents before they award picks for all of the Type B free agents. In short, this is what the early picks of the sandwich round could look like (I'm going to assume that Lowell, Rivera and Andy Pettitte aren't going to factor into the compensation picks): 31. Giants (Bonds) 32. Twins (Hunter) 33. Brewers (Cordero) 34. Mets (Glavine) 35. Padres (Barrett) 36. Phillies (Rowand) 37. Yankees (Arod) 38. Brewers (Linebrink) 39. Padres (Bradley) 40. Phillies (Iguchi) Like I said above, I would be somewhat surprised to see Bonds offered arby, and I'm not so sure the Phillies would do so with Iguchi. The rest are probably no-brainers. After that there are 30 Type B free agents that will fall into place, a number that will obviously decrease as some of those players I'm sure will re-sign with their '07 ballclubs while a few others will not be offered arbitration.

Final: Mesa 2, Peoria 5 Mesa takes an early 2-0 lead, but that's all they can muster in this one. Matt LaPorta goes 0-4 with two Ks. Lou Palmisano goes 0-3 with a walk. Adam Heether goes 1-3 (one of Mesa's seven hits) with a walk and commits his third error. Palmisano had a tough day behind the plate, as Peoria conducted a track meet on the basepaths by swiping six bases in eight attempts. Peoria seemed to be picking on Mesa's starter Brad James (an Astros farmhand) in particular. Tim Dillard and Mitch Stetter combine to go the last two innings in this one for Mesa without giving up a run. Dilard walks three in two-thirds of an inning, while Stetter gives up a hit and strikes out a batter (another left-handed hitter) over the final 1.1 innings of the game. He helps Dillard by getting him out of a bases loaded situation in the seventh and avoids giving up in a run in the eighth by working around a leadoff triple by the Braves top prospect, left-handed hitting outfielder Jordan Schafer (which I believe reading Mass' reports above the first base hit a left-handed hitter has recorded against Stetter this fall). http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_box&gid=2007_11_10_msswin_perwin_1

Not bad, I was only off by two players (refer to the draft resource thread pinned at the top of this page), as I missed only Trever Miller and Shawn Green. Miller I just missed, while Green I didn't think counted since he supposedly had a mutual option with the Mets. Russ Springer re-signed with the Cardinals in early to mid-October, so that is one player Callis mistakenly added. Players such as Tim Wakefield, Curt Schlling and Juan Uribe have been removed from my master list since re-upping with their current teams. As of right now only 46 free agents have the potential to have an effect on the draft compensation. That number will likely be cut in half as teams don't offer some of these players arbitration with a handful likekly returning to their 2007 clubs. As I noted in the 2008 draft resource thread, I will make sure to cross names off of the list as they sign. I'm going to make sure this year not to delete those names completely, as the Elias rankings go a long way to determine the draft order for 2008.

Lidge is due for another big pay raise, as he made over $5M this past year entering his final year of arbitration. Still, they didn't seem to get much in return, as Constanzo has a lot of question marks as noted while Bourn (who went to the U. of Houston) definitely has a limited ceiling in the power dep't. despite having a very good patience/speed/defense package that should be a noticeable improvement from Wily Taveras (I realize Taveras was with the Rockies in '07) that allows them to move Pence to a more natural outfield position (RF), while also keeping Lee in LF and Berkman at 1B. It also allows Pence to bat a little lower in the order. I'm curious if the Phillies are hopeful to re-sign Rowand, because they just traded away his most likely successor. Geary is pretty solid. Bruntlett is very replaceable. I would have thought that Lidge would have been dealt for more than this, but both Bourn and Constanzo have some upside.

If you say we should keep Gross and Mench on the bench, yes Winn makes the team better because he's replacing Gwynn. But is it really worth spending $16.5 million plus talent to upgrade Tony Gwynn Jr.'s roster spot? I wouldn't view it as upgrading Tony Gwynn, I would view it more as replacing Jenkins, and the $16.5 million isn't just for '08, it's for '09 as well, and as much as I would love to see Gwynn, he's going to have a hard time coming close to Winn's numbers. I agree that I would prefer Kearns and possibly Church, but I don't think it's going to be any easier acquiring Kearns, and Church isn't going to come for free either.

I'm guessing the part about LaPorta as a long-shot to make the big-league club out of spring training is more of Rosenthal's creation based on his progression to date than anything the Brewers were actually considering. Just a guess, but outside of clancy, I don't think anyone seriously thought LaPorta was a candidate to fill LF as early as next year. Both JohnBriggs and pogo make good points about Winn, who would make this a better team despite being older and despite having somewhat of a hefty price tag attached. As pogo noted, I still would like to have someone like Mench come off the bench, and Gross for that matter, and overpaying to have that kind of talent from top to bottom on the roster would go a long way in improving the Brewers chances of making the playoffs next year. And with two years of Winn the Brewers wouldn't feel the need to rush LaPorta. And yes, it's possible that Winn reverts to his '06 numbers, but it is also possible that he replicates or even improves upon his '07 numbers. And as Briggs noted, he would make a perfect #2 hitter. And I agree that he's going to cost more than Gwynn. He's a good hitter, and a good big-leaguer, and will take an equally good big-leaguer to make this trade happen. According to the other reports the Giants are after big bats, which may make Gamel a potential candidate whether you like it or not. I still would like to see the possible trade expanded to include one of the Giants bullpen arms. I wouldn't trade Parra to get him though. Gamel yes, just because Gamel is more expendable considering he seems to be blocked at nearly every position he profiles to be able to play.

I was looking at Winn's career splits: As a RH batter: .289/.343/.441 As a LH batter: .286/.344/.421 That's about as even as you can get. Most switch hitters seem to have more dramatic career splits from one side or the other. EDIT: I think it is possible the team could land Winn for Capuano alone, again, especially given the money involved, and I don't necessarily think that trading for Winn would ensure that the team would deal Mench. Mench's bat off of the bench would still be welcomed facing lefties late in games, like Gross' would be vs. RHPs.

Actually Winn's splits as a switch-hitter are almost dead even, although he does have a little less power against RHPs as a LH batter. It would be nice to have a switch hitter for a change. I've always liked Winn, and I've noted several times before that I feel he would be a perfect fit. He has a little bit of speed, although his stolen base numbers have declined the past couple of years, and he plays all three OF positions well. He hits a bunch of doubles, has been pretty consistent through his career, and extremely reliable/healthy. I'm guessing his games played, AB and hit totals from the past 5 years are among the lead leaders in that time span. As Toby mentioned his salary situation isn't pretty, which could benefit the Brewers if they're willing and able to absorb his salary, meaning they probably wouldn't have to give up as much as you may initially think. I too wouldn't deal either Parra or Gamel for Winn, unless a reliever got involved (one of Brad Hennessey, Vinnie Chulk, Kevin Correira or prospects such as Brian Wilson and Billy Sadler), but I think a deal could be made with some lesser parts that would make both sides happy. Although I think Ryan Church may be a better overall option. EDIT: As for LaPorta, I think his last week in the AFL supports that he needs more seasoning in the minors. Having him start next season in the big leagues would be setting him up for failure.

I am pretty sure everybody thinks their trade proposal is legitimate. That has been very clear recently, as I have been pretty close to suggesting the very same thing. Mass wasn't trying to come down on anyone for tossing out ideas, as he could have easily done so by pointing to specific proposal and poster. He was simply asking people to think about the ideas from both sides of the spectrum. Think about the deal from the other team's perspective, as if you were a fan of that team. What kind of package would you want for a player that is similar on the Brewers in value and overall impact to the player you want to get from that other team?

We now know that both Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink will be Type A free agents, meaning the Brewers get two compensation picks if they offer them both arbitration (which they would be stupid not to) and if they both sign elsewhere (which I have a feeling they will). Cordero has an Elias ranking of 83.657, with only four other free agents (from what I can tell) rated higher than him (Posada, Rivera, Lowell and Arod). Unless a team that finished among the 15 worst teams this past season signs Cordero, there's a pretty good chance the Brewers would get a first and a sandwich pick for him. Linebrink has a rating of 72.834, with 12 other Type A free agents ranked higher than him (again, from my quick comparison between the Elias rankings list and the free agent list). While I wish the team would find a way to at least keep Cordero, I just think some team is going to give him an insane amount of money (the Cubs?). Should Cordero and Linebrink both walk, that would mean four additional early round picks. Here's a peak at a few teams over the few years and what they did with their collection of early picks (I was somewhat surprised by how many of these players have already seemingly disappeared in prospectdom): '04 White Sox: Josh Fields (1), Tyler Lumsden (1s), Gio Gonzalez (1s), Wes Whisler (2), Donny Lucy (2), Ray Liotta (2) '04 Twins:: Trevor Plouffe (1), Glen Perkins (1), Kyle Waldrop (1), Matt Fox (1s), Jay Rainville (1s), Anthony Swarzak (2) '04 A's: Landon Powell (1), Richie Robnett (1), Danny Putnam (1s), Huston Street (1s), Michael Rogers (2), Kurt Suzuki (2) '05 Marlins: Chris Volstad (1), Aaron Thompson (1), Jacob Marceaux (1), Ryan Tucker (1s), Seat West (1s), Kris Harvey (2) '06 Braves: Cody Johnson (1), Cory Rasmus (1S), Steve Evarts (1s), Jeff Locke (2), Dustin Evans (2), Chase Fontaine (2) '06 Red Sox: Jason Place (1), Daniel Bard (1), Kris Johnson (1s), Caleb Clay (1s), Justin Masterson (2), Aaron Bates (3) And of course there's last year, in which teams cashed in on the rule change for Type B free agents before they changed the percentages that defined Type A and B FAs: '07 Giants: Madison Bumgarner (1), Tim Alderson (1), Wendell Fairley (1), Nick Noonan (1s), Jackson Williams (1s), Charlie Culberson (1s) '07 Nationals: Ross Detwiler (1), Josh Smoker (1s), Michael Burgess (1s), Jordan Zimmerman (2), Jake Smolinski (2) '07 Blue Jays: Kevin Ahrens (1), J.P. Arencibia (1), Brett Cecil (1s), Justin Jackson (1s), Tryston Magnuson (1s), John Tolisano (2), Eric Eiland (2) '07 Padres: Nick Schmidt (1), Kellen Kulbacki (1s), Drew Cumberland (1s), Mitch Canham (1s), Cory Luebke (1s), Danny Payne (1s), Eric Sogard (2), Brad Chalk (2) '07 Rangers: Blake Beaven (1), Michael Main (1), Julio Borbon (1s), Neil Ramirez (1s), Tommy Hunter (1s), Matt West (2) The '05 Marlins is an interesting team to look at, since they too had the 16th overall slot that year, and they loaded up on pitching, something I think a lot of people somewhat expect the Brewers to do next June. I think last year's Blue Jays draft would mirror an approach the Brewers would use, although there are a couple of college arms sprinkled in (if the Brewers have extra, early picks, they may just have to use one of them on a college pitcher!).

not even a thought for callaspo? No, not really. If I'm building a team position-by-position, I'm not doing it with a good but not great prospect that for the most part has not proven himself at the big-league level yet.

Utley. Given the building the team heavy on youth theme, I'd go with either Howie Kedrick or Dustin Pedroia.

I do, however, see them gravitating towards college guys in the top 5 rounds, now that the team is contending. The Brewers already did that this past year, with the organization (Melvin/Ash/Zduriencik) pretty much stating the same reason, so while I don't expect that to completely stray from prep talent, as that would get away from the whole best player available theory, I do think they will continue to have a preference towards college players. And that wasn't a huge switch. In 2005 they took Braun, Gamel and Roberts (followed by Hammond in the 6th) among their top four selections (they lost their 2nd rounder on Damian Miller). In 2006 they took Gillespie and Errecart amidst Jeffress, Brewer and Anundsen (followed by Bouchie in the 6th). This past year of course Gindl was the only prep player selected in the first five rounds, with another college player, Merklinger, being selected in the 6th. I wouldn't expect the Brewers to focus on defense when it comes to the draft anytime soon. It's pretty clear that they like high impact bats (Weeks, Fielder, Braun, LaPorta, Lucroy, Gamel), regardless of the defensive deficiencies, and prep arms (Rogers, Gallardo, Inman, Jeffress, Anundsen) early. Eric Farris and Cole Gillespie are really the only plus defenders the team has selected in the early rounds the past few years, and both of those guys were coming off of extremely successful seasons at the plate, so it's not like they were targeted for their D'. I just wish they would approach pitching savvy the same way they value hitters, meaning, take the guy that knows how to pitch as opposed to the guy that doesn't, yet knows how to light up a radar gun. I thought (hoped) they were starting to go that direction when they took Inman.

The Rising Stars of the AFL are squaring off this evening, with the West vs. the East. As noted earlier in this thread, Matt LaPorta (who walked in the first inning, game started at 9pm CST) and Mitch Stetter were named to this top prospect team (not a true All-Star game). You can follow the game via MiLB.com's gameday/gametracker, since I'm sure most of you have nothing better to do on a Friday night http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2007/gd.html?2007_10_26_afewin_afwwin_1

Thanks Blazer. Did you happen to be at the East Coast Pro, and if so, did you have the chance to see Brett Lawrie? Best wishes in Jupiter starting tomorrow.

Check out the thread "Drafting a College Closer" just a few spots down from this one on a more detailed conversation on the subject: http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=3399 Drafting college closers in earlier rounds has become a more pronounced trend in recent years, and they're not guys that are converted starters, and for the most part they're players that served the same role at the college level. The most recent example is Casey Weathers, who the Rockies took 8th overall last June and could be with the big-league club at some point next year.

Mass, or anyone else, didn't Sarfate have a really strong winter league last year as well? I seem to remember being very encouraged about his numbers (low walk totals).

By the way, if you're into the draft and thinking about dropping some money for a subscription to learn about the top prospects, check out PG Crosschecker if you haven't already: http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/ Yes, I sound like a company stooge, but if I wasn't associated with them I would probably drop my BA subscription (or beg my wife to allow me to have both) to get PGCC's unprecedented covered. Today they released the top 100 draft eligible prospects, both high school and college, complete with scouting reports. You just can't beat that, especially in October. The scouting report version has Alvarez #1 and Matusz #2, instead of the other way around, which is how I have them ranked at this point in time.

The content lists the nation's top 100 high school prospects that are eligible for the 2008 draft. It's a little difficult giving a basic recap that doesn't include naming names at certain spots. Tim Melville is #1, Tim Beckham is #2. Here's the pic that accompanies the story (always fun seeing the kids wear the Brewers gear): http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/prep10007428309jsmj.jpg (From upper left clockwise around): Aaron Hicks, Harold Martinez, Gerrit Cole and Jarret Martin.

A nice story by BA's Chris Kline covering Matt LaPorta in the AFL. AA hitting coach Sandy Guerrero has challenged LaPorta to try to hit the other ball more often, plus a comment about where LaPorta may begin the 2008 season: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=633 Arizona Fall League Notebook: Oct. 21 SURPRISE, Ariz.-Mesa Solar Sox hitting coach Sandy Guerrero stood around the cage and waited for Matt LaPorta to begin his batting practice in the final group of hitters before Saturday's game against the Surprise Rafters. Except that wasn't a fungo Guerrero was holding-he was waiting to get his licks in Group Four against Chad Epperson as well. This was all part of Guerrero's plan-challenge LaPorta to a BP home run duel. The only catch? The righthanded-hitting LaPorta, the Brewers' 2007 first-round pick out of Florida, had to drive the ball out to right field while the lefthanded-hitting Guerrero, who last played at the Triple-A level in 1992, could poke balls over the right field wall. That's the game within the game for LaPorta these days in the Arizona Fall League-hit the ball to the right side of the field with power. "He's such a strong kid and he has such a good swing, but he still doesn't know how strong he can be," Guerrero said. "What I'm trying to do with that is 'OK, we have to hit it to right field.' My chances are limited considering I'm not a very strong guy and I have a totally different kind of swing. But I have the approach where if I really concentrate I can still do it too." After LaPorta drove one ball to right-center in his first round, Guerrero lifted one over the right field wall-but LaPorta wasn't watching and needed verification from Cubs outfielder Sam Fuld. "You have to make sure," LaPorta said. "He's always trying to find new ways to push my buttons." Which is exactly what Guerrero, who has served as the hitting coach at Double-A Huntsville the last five seasons, is trying to do-keep Milwaukee's $2 million-dollar investment interested while making him a much more complete hitter in the process. "We want to get him to compete at the Double-A level (in 2008) and I know pitchers in the Southern League command the outside part of the plate well," Guerrero said. "He's quick enough to hit anything inside. My job is to get him to look for that outside pitch and show the ability to hit it over there. In preparing him for that, I don't want him to get bored. So we have the dinner challenge. And it's 200 or 300 percent more difficult for him to hit one here than me, but that's the point. I want to get the most out of him. "Good hitters in the big leagues can hit balls all over the zone out to all fields and he has that ability. He doesn't know he has it yet. He's still learning about himself. He didn't get full extension on his swing before his time in this league. He would hit the ball out in front and live off that pull power. Now, he's allowing balls to get deeper in the zone and hitting for power to all fields." After five rounds, the student and mentor wound up tied 1-1, which was good enough for a free dinner for Guerrero. LaPorta, who was hampered by injuries over his last two seasons with the Gators, has always been an outstanding power hitter. He led the nation in home runs as a sophomore in 2005, slugging 26 to set a school record. After the Red Sox failed to meet his bonus demands as a 14th-rounder in 2006, he returned to Gainesville again, and again led NCAA Division-I hitters with a .579 slugging percentage and a 1.432 OPS. LaPorta then came into pro ball on fire, hitting 304/.369/.696 with 12 home runs in his 115 at-bat debut, finishing the season at low Class A West Virginia. "This is an opportunity to play with the best players in professional baseball and I'm not about to take that for granted," LaPorta said. "When I leave the field, I want people to say I played every game like it was my last. I think running out every ground ball and playing the game the right way really shows your character and what type of person you are off the field as well. "We're trying to let the ball get deeper at times. Now you're hitting with wood and you've got to really learn how to drive it with wood. With aluminum you can flick your wrists and the ball will go out of the yard. I don't want to be that type of hitter anymore. I want to be a professional hitter." On top of continuing to discover who he is as a professional hitter, LaPorta is also learning a new position-left field. "He's still learning how to get good jumps, run good routes and what it takes to play the outfield every day," Guerrero said. "It's sometimes easy for a first-rounder to coast in this league. I can guarantee he will not coast in any phase of his game out here. He knows I won't allow that to happen. We have too much work to do."

Thanks to everyone for chiming in. Finding the names of former players really isn't a problem thanks to Baseball Reference and Baseball Almanac. burniebrewer, thanks a ton for that link. I would imagine after talking to a few of those people that a trip to the library, and anywhere else, wouldn't even be necessary. As for the novelty of baseball at UW, baseball would be a non-revenue sport, another reason why a huge financial donation specifically assigned for the return of the sport would be key.

Check out the right-hand side of the bottom of this page at BA under "international affairs." A little further up you'll see the players featured under their "scout's view" section. Jose Ricardo Garcia is one of the names listed, and under the archive you can also find reports for Michael Almanzar, Kelvin Deleon, Itaniel Arias Guzman and Julio Teheran. All of the info is subscriber based. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ Otherwise, just run some google searches. I've seen a few message boards on other fan sites try to keep up with the bigger names available on the international free agent market. Just do a Google search of some of the names listed above and I'm sure that will take you places with information on other prominent players.

Unfortunately no, and from what I've seen, no such thing exists. BA had maybe 3-4 scouting reports on some of the more prominent players that were available before they ended up signing, but there is no rankings or reports afterwards, largely because not much is known about these players.

BA has a list of international signees from July 2 - August 20th on their homepage (subscriber based content): http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/news/265060.html Only two signees during that time as already reported in this thread, Hitaniel Arias from the Dominican Republic (16 years old), and Venezuelan outfielder Nelson Montes (18 years old). Two signees is on the lower end of the spectrum, but keep in mind that this is only the first signing period (as evidenced by two other reported signings as noted above). The Cubs, Orioles and Phillies also had two signees a piece, while the Giants had the fewest with only one after making a big splash a year ago by signing Angel Villalona.