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Robideaux

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Everything posted by Robideaux

  1. Robideaux
    I know this won't happen this season, but the only way I see Randy Winn improving the 2008 Brewers is if he plays CF with Hall at 3B and Braun in LF. Winn as a corner OF is underwhelming. His OPS last year is pretty good, but what if he goes back to hitting like he did in 2006? Then he's (1) old (2) bad and (3) expensive--not a good combination. Otherwise, I think Gross/Mench have a better than 50/50 chance to outhit Winn next season.
  2. Robideaux
    Kemp's a nice player, but I'm always a little bit leery of guys whose OBP-BA is in the low range. So much of their value is tied into maintaining a high average, which can be somewhat volatile. I have nothing to back this up, but I have always had a gut feeling that young guys who put up an impressive OPS (like Kemp) with 90%+ of their OBP dependent on their BA have a higher chance of a significant regression in value than a player with a similar OPS with a lower BA. (Which makes me somewhat worried about Braun's ceiling) That being said, Kemp has put up good numbers at every level thus far, and his minor league walk rate seemed to be trending upward, which may be a harbinger of great things.
  3. Robideaux
    Isn't that what bad teams do though? How much does a good bullpen help if it makes the difference between 65 and 70 wins? For years the Brewers groomed closers and shipped them off as soon as they had any value. I realize the trade's not actually going to happen, but I think the Royals would be the team making out like a bandit. What are they really giving up of value? Emil Brown, John Buck, and Ross Gload aren't pieces a bad team builds around. They gut their bullpen, but in return they get Rocco Baldelli and Jeff Nieman. Basically, if I were going to rank the value of the players included in the deal, it would be something like this: 1. Carl Crawford 2. Carlos Villanueva 3. Jeff Nieman 4. Rocco Baldelli 5. Joakim Soria In that scenario, 3 of the top 5 players would come from the D-Rays. The Royals and Brewers would each get two and give one away. I don't see any reason that the D-Rays would make a deal like that. If they are going to trade young OF talent for young pitching talent, then there is no way they are giving away Nieman, one of their top pitching prospects in the minors. You could make an argument that Soria should be as high as #3, but that wouldn't really change the fact that the D-Rays would be getting the short end of the stick.
  4. Robideaux
    In the eighth inning last night Guillermo Mota (a righty) was pitching for the Mets. With two outs and nobody on base, Kevin Mench came to the plate and flied out. Mench is a righty. Mota is a righty. Mench can't hit righthanded pitching--the exact reason that he is being platooned to begin with. I've been trying to think of a good reason why you wouldn't bring in Jenkins to hit in that situation, but I can't. Do you think its simply an ego thing? Ned doesn't want to ruffle feathers in a situation that showed to potential to get ugly in spring training. It seems to me that if you are acknowledging the fact that Mench and Jenkins have massive splits by virtue of platooning them. Thus, doesn't it seem counterintuitive to have the platoon advantage at the beginning of the game, but to ignore it in close and late situations--where arguably the value of that particular out is magnified to some degree? I don't mean this as a bash Ned Yost thread. I would have asked the question even if Mench had gotten a hit last night. I am legitimately curious if there is some factor in this decision not to replace Mench or Jenkins late in games with their platoon partner that I am overlooking....thanks. (added tags --1992 http://static.yuku.com/v2//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif) (consolidated tags --1992 )
  5. Robideaux
    I can't speak for others, but personally I'm worried that Inman's trade value is going to keep falling if he doesn't turn things around soon. His AA numbers don't exactly inspire confidence that he's going to pan out like we had hoped. I don't know what his value currently is, but I'd be willing to gamble that 3+ years of Hawpe is worth more than the chance that Inman is the real deal.
  6. Robideaux
    I think he would be an ideal candidate to replace Jenkins in the OF. He absolutely mashes right-handed pitching and he's got a cannon for an arm. Hawpe vs. RHP 2007 1.073 OPS 2006 .923 OPS He has virtually no home/road split so he is not some Coors Field illusion. I'm not sure what his contract status is. Of course, Colorado might still think they can make a run this season, in which case they might be unwilling to trade one of their best players--can't imagine their fans would appreciate it when their only 5.5 games back. I assume it would take a bunch to get him. If the Brewers were able to retain his rights for 3+ years (either by extending his contract or what not) I'd offer: Jenkins (we agree to pay his salary this year) Gwynn Inman Jenkins takes his place in Colorado this season. That way management can say they are not throwing in the towel. They also get two prospects in return. A Hawpe/Mench platoon could be realistically expected to produce an OPS of .900-1.000. Hawpe would solve our OF dilemma for years. Plus with an outfield consisting of Hart/Hall/Hawpe, announcers could come up with all sorts of too-cute-for-television monikers for the outfield like Triple-H , etc. I realize the likelihood of it happening are close to zero, but what do you guys think? Would you do the trade if you were Doug Melvin? Is it not enough to give up? Would Colorado want us to throw Rodgers in as well to sweeten the pot?
  7. Robideaux
    a few in no particular order: The Road Cormac McCarthy (McCarthy's book All the Pretty Horses was a pretty good read as well, title notwithstanding) The Straight Man Richard Russo White Noise Don DeLillo On The Road Jack Kerouac Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance Robert Pirsig One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest Ken Kesey
  8. Robideaux
    I am not a scout, but I don't see the comparison between LaPorta and Hatteberg based on their college numbers. Hatteberg topped out at a grand total of 8 home runs as a sophomore. His slugging% was .628. These aren't crazy Nintendo numbers. Keith Law, or whoever it was, was probably just trying to think of another guy who caught some in college, but whose bat was good enough (or glove bad enough) to switch to 1B. LaPorta had more power than anyone in else in the draft. Hatteberg was not even a first round pick. I would however be happy if LaPorta displays Hatteberg's propensity for drawing walks in the bigs.
  9. Robideaux
    bklynbrewcrew-- I call your Antone Williamson and Chad Green with a J.M. Gold and an Isaiah Clark and I'll raise you a Kenny Henderson, Dave Krynzel, and Mike Jones. I wouldn't read too much into one dude comparing LaPorta to Hatteberg. Jenkins, Weeks, Braun, and Sheets all played in college so obviously guys don't lack "upside" based solely on that fact. Who knows, you might be right about LaPorta, but you might be wrong. Also, what's so bad about the A's. They've made the playoffs five times already since 2000 and won over 90 games all but one year when they won (only) 88. I won't speak for others, but I would personally love that sort of "mediocrity" from the Brewers.
  10. Robideaux
    Not to pile on, but I think based solely on the numbers, that assertion just isn't accurate. BA/OB/SLG So: .328/.438/.698 Jr : .259/.410/.538 Sr: .402/.582/.817 Strike Outs So: 65 Jr: 34 Sr: 16
  11. Robideaux
    I like the pick. The kid can flat out mash. I'd much rather have a polished college bat than a prep RHP project. Porcello or Parker would have been fine in my book, but I wanted absolutely no part of Aumont or another project with a plus plus fastball and questionable secondary stuff. We need to face reality--Our window is only open for about 4 seasons. Then we start hemmoraging players once they reach post-arby contracts. LaPorta will be in the bigs by the time Prince & Co. move on the greener pastures. Jenkins will be gone within the next few years as well, leaving an opening in left field. A power bat would look good there. I assume the Brewers think LaPorta can handle LF or they wouldn't have taken him.
  12. Robideaux
    Does anyone know what these national writers mean when they say something like "the commissioner will come down on them hard for exceeding the slot recommendations." I understand the mechanics of the draft and how each pick is slotted a certain amount of money, how Boras clients fit in as well, so my real question is, "what is MLB really going to do?" What happens to the GM who takes Wieters at 14 and pays him $10 mil? A stern talking to? No Christmas card from Bud? If there isn't a hard pick cap, who cares what MLB thinks? I can see why teams don't like the precedent (and I think MLB needs to fix the baseball draft to where signability isn't a variable) but as far as I am aware there is no real penalty for exceeding the slot value. Is this correct?
  13. Robideaux
    Tedaldtada29, I realize this is pure conjecture and all, but if you are Red's management, why would you possibly trade: 1. an OF who currently has a 950 OPS, is a sure hall-of-famer, and whose dad also starred on the team during its hey-day AND 2. a 3b who, although he is slumping horribly through 100 AB's, at age 23 put up 800+ OPS FOR 1. a 24-year old pitching prospect who hasn't put up a sub-4.00 ERA since he was in high A ball 2. a 26-year-old reliever who couldn't make the majors out of spring training and proceeded to go AWOL AND 3. A 28-year-old LF who's making Johnny Estrada look selective at the plate by comparison It might save the Reds a little money in the short term, but I think the luster has faded a little bit on Zack Jack's and Cappy's once bright major league futures. They're probably both still talented enough to hang around for a while on major league rosters, but I think their days as "top prospects" is probably passed. I don't think the Reds do that trade from a talent stand-point, let alone a marketing one. Of course if the Brewers were to sweeten the pot by dangling Inman as part of that package, maybe the Reds would bite, but boy would I hate to trade Inman to a division rival...
  14. Robideaux
    Thanks, that pretty much answers my questions.
  15. Robideaux
    Through perusing this site and other, my impression is that, in general, pitchers control walks, strikeouts and home runs and the likelihood of a batted ball in play resulting in a hit is pretty uniform and not controlled by the pitcher--thus the primacy of WHIP as a tool for evaluating effectiveness without luck clouding the picture. If this is true, wouldn't it logically follow that the likelihood of a player getting a hit is purely a function of how often he puts the ball in play. Thus, high strikeout hitters would theoretically have lower batting averages than low strikeout hitters. A quick look at the BA leaders from 2006 show that there is definitely a negative correlation between BA and a strikeouts, but there are notable exceptions among the leaders. Jeter, Cabrera, Holliday, Ramirez, Dye, Berkman, and Howard are all among the leaders. 12 of the top 30 leaders struck out more than 100 times and 17 of 30 struck out more than 90 times. It would seem like these high strikeout high BA players buck the uniform BABIP idea. I'm guessing my logic is probably messed up somewhere in there. If anyone could tell me where I strayed I would appreciate it. Second point, even if BABIP remains relatively constant, is it possible that even taking home runs out of the equation, some players give up more doubles and triples proportionally to their total number of balls allowed in play? I don't see much mention of SLG% allowed--it seems like if you were able to combine SLG% with the park factor, it would be a good diagnostic tool. Thanks., I hope this makes sense.
  16. Robideaux
    I am a member, but haven't actually posted until now.
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